Halfway Point

[wartyOne]

Through 8 games the early fortunes of the NFCW have evaporated for all but the 9ers. The Rams have a losing record and dropped the last three, including embarrassing losses against a mediocre AFC team, and a double-digit home loss to the Packers.

The Cardinals and Seahawks still have statistical powerhouse defenses. Arz ranks fourth in points allowed, Sea ranks third. SF is first, for anybody who doesn't know. Yards per game, 9ers - 1, Hawks - 5, Cards - 6. Ironically, with those defensive backs, Seattle ranks 13 against the pass, while the 9ers are 2nd, and the Cards are 4th. The Rams are middle of the pack in yards and points per game.

Despite all of that, Arz and Sea are now at .500. Yards per game on offense features the 9ers at 11. That's the best of the bunch. St. Louis comes in second ranked 28. Passing in this division is a joke. A bad one. Arizona, despite having Larry Fitzgerald, is ranked 24th passing the ball, and they rank first in the division. St. Louis comes in second at 25, SF comes in third at 28 (not surprisingly; our 11th rated ypg is bolstered by our top of the league rushing game), and Seattle ranks 31.

In Points for, we lead the division at 15. Seattle is at 27, St. Louis is at 30, and Arz is at 31.

Lots of defense, but pretty shoddy offense with the exception of our running game (Seattle's ranks 8th).

Why is this important? Because the last dominant defense to win the SB with an incompetent offense was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that's not the recent trend. I firmly believe that unless our defense/ST's scores 14 points, we're not beating a team like the Giants/Falcons/Bears in the playoffs. We simply have to be better on offense, or the games that matter are going to look like the Minnesota/NYG games this year. Settling for "Well, we didn't turn it over" isn't going to be good enough against an offense that can move the ball against us (all playoff teams).

I think the rest of the division teams are starting to show their true colors.

Okay, having dropped the negative-Nancy routine, I will say this. There is plenty of time to get us on track. But we have to be better at converting 3rd downs and getting TD's instead of settling for FG's.

 

[-AC-]

I think the Niners style of offense is perfect for winter weather and the playoffs...

 

[numone9er]

Through 8 games the early fortunes of the NFCW have evaporated for all but the 9ers. The Rams have a losing record and dropped the last three, including embarrassing losses against a mediocre AFC team, and a double-digit home loss to the Packers.

The Cardinals and Seahawks still have statistical powerhouse defenses. Arz ranks fourth in points allowed, Sea ranks third. SF is first, for anybody who doesn't know. Yards per game, 9ers - 1, Hawks - 5, Cards - 6. Ironically, with those defensive backs, Seattle ranks 13 against the pass, while the 9ers are 2nd, and the Cards are 4th. The Rams are middle of the pack in yards and points per game.

Despite all of that, Arz and Sea are now at .500. Yards per game on offense features the 9ers at 11. That's the best of the bunch. St. Louis comes in second ranked 28. Passing in this division is a joke. A bad one. Arizona, despite having Larry Fitzgerald, is ranked 24th passing the ball, and they rank first in the division. St. Louis comes in second at 25, SF comes in third at 28 (not surprisingly; our 11th rated ypg is bolstered by our top of the league rushing game), and Seattle ranks 31.

In Points for, we lead the division at 15. Seattle is at 27, St. Louis is at 30, and Arz is at 31.

Lots of defense, but pretty shoddy offense with the exception of our running game (Seattle's ranks 8th).

Why is this important? Because the last dominant defense to win the SB with an incompetent offense was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that's not the recent trend. I firmly believe that unless our defense/ST's scores 14 points, we're not beating a team like the Giants/Falcons/Bears in the playoffs. We simply have to be better on offense, or the games that matter are going to look like the Minnesota/NYG games this year. Settling for "Well, we didn't turn it over" isn't going to be good enough against an offense that can move the ball against us (all playoff teams).

I think the rest of the division teams are starting to show their true colors.

Okay, having dropped the negative-Nancy routine, I will say this. There is plenty of time to get us on track. But we have to be better at converting 3rd downs and getting TD's instead of settling for FG's.

The Offense is capable of doing that. The Cardinals Defense has been solid this year and Alex tore them apart. Obviously we shouldn't expect him to continue this trend, but they are capable of doing so.

 

[MHSL82]

For what it's worth, we've improved from 20 something percent to 37.8 in third down conversions. We're 8th in the red zone (not sure if this includes FGs) and 10th in passing TDs (7th in TD%). We need to get to the Red Zone more often, too.

1st in Completion Percentage (didn't add in Kaepernick for this or yards per attempt)
1st in First Down Percentage (per ESPN, don't know what this is)
4th in Traditional QB Rating
5th in Yards per Attempt
7th in TD Percentage
8th in the Red Zone (30th last year)
9th in ESPN Total QBR
20th in Completions
20th in Third Down Conversions (31st last year)
22nd in Total Yards
27th in Attempts
5th in Sacks
15th in INT%

 

[NinerSickness]

TI firmly believe that unless our defense/ST's scores 14 points, we're not beating a team like the Giants/Falcons/Bears in the playoffs.

The Bears & Falcons don't worry me at all. The Giants do. Only way the Niners beat them is if Alex's hand is WAY stronger than last time.

Wouldn't hurt to trade for Steve Smith either.

 

[numone9er]

The Bears & Falcons don't worry me at all. The Giants do. Only way the Niners beat them is if Alex's hand is WAY stronger than last time.

Wouldn't hurt to trade for Steve Smith either.

Would he even fit into our salary cap? What are you suggesting we give up for him?

 

[NinerSickness]

Would he even fit into our salary cap? What are you suggesting we give up for him?

I read his salary for this season is only 1 million because of a re-structure. I think the Niners would be crazy not to try. They're possibly a WR away from being the best team in the NFL.

His contract is essentially a 2 year deal w/ an option (a really expensive one) for 2014. I honestly don't know what the market value for that would be, but the Chiefs wanted a 3rd rounder for Bowe (for 1 season). I'd trade a 3rd for Smith. Or maybe either Kyle or Mario + a 4th?

More Smith's on the Niners! He could possibly be the difference between a win & a loss in the playoffs.

For once, I'm suggesting the Niners trade FOR a player instead of trading a player away.

 

[Yadahell]

Okay, having dropped the negative-Nancy routine, I will say this. There is plenty of time to get us on track. But we have to be better at converting 3rd downs and getting TD's instead of settling for FG's.

Yes indeed- and Monday night was a step in the right direction (converted some nice, long 3rd downs and punched in 3 TD's).

 

[Flyingiguana]

another wr is just gonna create a bigger logjam. we're a running team and i don't think we're using the running game anywhere near like we should.

that just doesn't leave enough balls to go around in the passing game.

 

[tallglassofwater007]

I think the Niners have already showed that they can beat good teams without the defense scoring any points. I do though completely agree with the 3rd downs and redzone TD's. Against high powered offenses we have to be able to convert the 3rd downs to keep them off of the field. And field goals do nothing but keep teams in games.

 

[deep9er]

what is the old adage..........defense gets you to the superbowl, the QB wins it?

won't claim this is still firmly in place today, but no doubt our offense needs to be efficient during the play-offs. we simply won't get explosive as much as we wish, however if Alex Smith can remain consistent (near HIS best), we have a good shot.

 

[yossarian]

I wouldn't be as worried about the Bears in the playoffs just because I think Cutler is as likely to make some boneheaded mistake as a great play and our defense can capitalize on that. I would be petrified of facing the Giants in the playoffs, and the Falcons will have to prove they can win in the playoffs first.

Independent of all that, and not bring up a sore point, but as poorly as our offense did in last year's NFC Championship game we were two muffed punts or kickoffs away from going to the superbowl, I think we are capable of playing that type of game again and winning this time because we won't blow the returns. Sometimes you win with defense (as we could have done in the NFC game) and sometimes you win with offense (as we did against New Orleans).

 

[deep9er]

I wouldn't be as worried about the Bears in the playoffs just because I think Cutler is as likely to make some boneheaded mistake as a great play and our defense can capitalize on that. I would be petrified of facing the Giants in the playoffs, and the Falcons will have to prove they can win in the playoffs first.

Independent of all that, and not bring up a sore point, but as poorly as our offense did in last year's NFC Championship game we were two muffed punts or kickoffs away from going to the superbowl, I think we are capable of playing that type of game again and winning this time because we won't blow the returns. Sometimes you win with defense (as we could have done in the NFC game) and sometimes you win with offense (as we did against New Orleans).

no matter who we face, the NFC has quality teams. it won't be easy getting to the superbowl. it isn't "on any given Sunday" like the regular season, but chit can happen.

regarding "play-off experience", not a BIG deal but always felt its a little overrated? yes, it does help but not to any large extent. anyways, don't the Falcons play much better at home? if so, this is where home field is especially important. unfortunately, don't see us catching them?

 

[supreme_clientele81]

anyways, don't the Falcons play much better at home? if so, this is where home field is especially important. unfortunately, don't see us catching them?

They lost the last two years at home and they were blowout loses. Granted they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions

 

[TobyTyler]

With a two game lead plus tiebreaker the 49ers' lead is basically insurmountable as long as Alex Smith doesn't get hurt.

 

[deep9er]

They lost the last two years at home and they were blowout loses. Granted they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions

ok thats good to know, but how are they playing at home this season?

to me, how they're playing now is a larger factor than losing last year, and the year before. think all their home wins were clear wins?

 

[deep9er]

With a two game lead plus tiebreaker the 49ers' lead is basically insurmountable as long as Alex Smith doesn't get hurt.

the 49ers have certainly taken the lead in the West, but i was referring to the play-offs. assuming the 49ers and Falcons are battling for homefield throughout, don't think the 49ers will catch the Falcons?

but ok it isn't guaranteed, so depends on who the Falcons lose to? this is the tie breaking procedure between two Division winners:

1.Head-to-head, if applicable.
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4.Strength of victory.

common games include NY Giants, Arizona, New Orleans, and Detroit [i believe?]

 

[tallglassofwater007]

the 49ers have certainly taken the lead in the West, but i was referring to the play-offs. assuming the 49ers and Falcons are battling for homefield throughout, don't think the 49ers will catch the Falcons?

but ok it isn't guaranteed, so depends on who the Falcons lose to? this is the tie breaking procedure between two Division winners:

1.Head-to-head, if applicable.
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4.Strength of victory.

common games include NY Giants, Arizona, New Orleans, and Detroit [i believe?]

The Niners have to get ahead of the Giants. As long as they get the first round bye and at least 1 home game it will be huge.

 

[TobyTyler]

the 49ers have certainly taken the lead in the West, but i was referring to the play-offs. assuming the 49ers and Falcons are battling for homefield throughout, don't think the 49ers will catch the Falcons?


With what looks like three more losses on the schedule for the 49ers I'd say they have virtually no chance of beating out the Falcons for home field, or the Giants for that matter. The division, however, is a lock.

 

[deep9er]

The Niners have to get ahead of the Giants. As long as they get the first round bye and at least 1 home game it will be huge.

also, lets not forget about the Bears with only one loss.

[don't think Minnesota can pass the Bears, so not worried about their tie breaking win over the 49ers]