gregory polanco

[Illinest]

With a need to promote a position player to the major league roster the pirates selected Brent Morel.

Who is Brent Morel? Even Brent Morel isn't sure.

Yeah Neil, we get it. You're commited to this course no matter what.
I have a recommendation for you neil - get out while you can. If you can't get fancy Bob to authorize a little bit more money then you're going to be forever trapped in between the GM and the fans - and one group or the other will eventually take your head.

 

[steelparrot]

I understand the super 2 games we are commited to, but it does suck.


They should base super 2 on performance, or hell make it a lottery, its just stupid the way it is currently.

 

[thecrow124]

I understand the super 2 games we are commited to, but it does suck.


They should base super 2 on performance, or hell make it a lottery, its just stupid the way it is currently.

As a fan, in instances like this I hate the Super Two rule. As someone that feels that players should make as much money as they can while that can, I love the Super Two rule. I do not like the way it is implemented, such as, how did they come up with the 22% number? Seems like a pretty arbitrary number to me. It is also a very fluid number, as you can bring a guy up, and he could fall in the 22% range, but then he could struggle in his third year, and he could be sent down, and others behind him on the service time list could move up.

That being said, owners will never agree to make it more agreeable to fans, because they simply don't want to pay the extra money. Players will never let it go, because it gives a guy a chance to earn millions of dollars that they might not otherwise have been able to make.

 

[element1286]

As a fan, in instances like this I hate the Super Two rule. As someone that feels that players should make as much money as they can while that can, I love the Super Two rule. I do not like the way it is implemented, such as, how did they come up with the 22% number? Seems like a pretty arbitrary number to me. It is also a very fluid number, as you can bring a guy up, and he could fall in the 22% range, but then he could struggle in his third year, and he could be sent down, and others behind him on the service time list could move up.

That being said, owners will never agree to make it more agreeable to fans, because they simply don't want to pay the extra money. Players will never let it go, because it gives a guy a chance to earn millions of dollars that they might not otherwise have been able to make.

Yep this is crux, the owners probably don't want it, but know the players will never let it go, so they are gaming the system. Prisoner's dilemma, both sides cheat, and everyone loses.

 

[Illinest]

I spent a part of this morning questioning the 15 million dollar figure and it was easy - even I was a little surprised how easy - to tear that number apart.

Actual cost of promoting Polanco in April: probably between 5 and 10 million depending on which set of assumptions you use.

I wish I would've been more aggressive about challenging that figure because it's bullshit. Anecdotally I've heard that even Tim Williams backed down from it when challenged (supposedly "closer to 10" in his words...)
The fact that Tim still uses 15 in his recent articles just shows what a shill he is. He admits 10 but uses 15 when it suits his pro-management agenda.


The local media - Tim and Dejan in particular - are getting buttfucked all over the place by the national media. Dejan was just using the "Polanco won't help the pitching" argument again today - as if bad pitching is any excuse to have bad hitters as well.
Of course I was extremely vocal about needing a quality starter - so it's not as if you couldn't see this coming from a mile away. Maybe you couldn't see it if you were too busy gargling Neil's balls, but it was pretty obvious to the rest of the world.

 

[thecrow124]

This scenario could work out any number of ways, but the two most likely, solely in my opinion, would be:
1. At some point Polanco will sign an extention with the Pirates before he ever hits arbitration, let alone free agency.
2. Polanco plays out his time with the Pirates and goes on to free agency.

In scenario 1, the Pirates look like complete morons for waiting out his super two date when they were reasonably certain that they were going to get him signed anyway.

In scenario 2, the Pirates look like complete morons because they couldn't pony up enough cash to get a minor leaguer to sign a deal that would have gotten him to the major leagues quicker. The only benefit to this is that he would be under team control for the better part of 7 years instead of 6.

Actually sitting here thinking, the worst case scenario would be the team miscalculation the super two date and still not be able to retain him past his sixth season.

 

[sychmd]

Actually sitting here thinking, the worst case scenario would be the team miscalculation the super two date and still not be able to retain him past his sixth season.

this is what i fear.
waiting and getting the worst of both worlds.

 

[element1286]

Pirates not mishandling Gregory Polanco - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Good article about top OF prospects, and their time in AA-AAA.

Definitely gets lost that Polanco was in A+ at this time last year, and has only a half year in AA, and that half year wasn't spectacular, just ok.

Also, he has been trending in the wrong directions as far as k-bb%, there is definitely a baseball reason for him to go through that league multiple times so pitchers will adjust to him, and he has the opportunity to adjust back. That is most certainly a developmental aspect.

 

[Illinest]

Terrible article that shows nothing about whether any particular prospect is ready. The article has tons of loose variables and no firm conclusion.

The jump from A to AA is widely reputed to be the largest of any. Bigger than AA to AAA or AAA to the majors. His pedestrian numbers in AA last year are not nearly as relevant as what he's done this year.

Comparing his decent strikeout rate with lower strikeout rates posted by other prospects merely obfuscates the fact that Polanco doesn't strike out enough to throw up any red flags. That charts out to 100 strikeouts in a season - hardly a concern. Even if it spiked upward at the major league level it most likely still looks better than the pace that marte (for example) has established.

This article makes it out like you'll get the next ted williams if you give him more time to practice hitting against inferior pitchers. The only thing that happens if you leave him in AAA is a bunch of crafty bottom of the rotation types will start to figure out ways to limit the damage he can do - but those guys exist in the majors too. In many cases they're the exact same pitchers.
Take cumpton or gomez for example - these guys who could just as easily face polanco in AAA as in the majors. There's tons of those guys in AAA. He doesn't need to master the skill of dominating a bunch of sixth starters - and if he is or isn't going to master it he can learn to do it just about as well in the majors as in AAA.

The type of challenges that we can't be sure he can overcome will only happen when he's in Pittsburgh. When Polanco faces off against Verlander - that's when we'll know if he can handle Verlander. You could throw a million cumptons at him and it wouldn't tell you anything about whether or not he can hit a quality starter in the majors.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pirates not mishandling Gregory Polanco - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Good article about top OF prospects, and their time in AA-AAA.

Definitely gets lost that Polanco was in A+ at this time last year, and has only a half year in AA, and that half year wasn't spectacular, just ok.

Also, he has been trending in the wrong directions as far as k-bb%, there is definitely a baseball reason for him to go through that league multiple times so pitchers will adjust to him, and he has the opportunity to adjust back. That is most certainly a developmental aspect.

I actually did wonder both about his K and BB rates, as well as how much his performance has been carried in no small part by an ungodly BABIP. I'm sure he'll be a good player if brought up now, but unless he stabilizes his K and BB rates relative to his own career norms, and preserves reasonable success when his batted ball luck inevitably regresses, I don't think he's ready to do what Pittsburgh fans seem to expect of him.

That's not to say he shouldn't be up now for the sake of the team, but I agree that in terms of his own development, this is not a bad thing.

 

[element1286]

Terrible article that shows nothing about whether any particular prospect is ready. The article has tons of loose variables and no firm conclusion.

The jump from A to AA is widely reputed to be the largest of any. Bigger than AA to AAA or AAA to the majors. His pedestrian numbers in AA last year are not nearly as relevant as what he's done this year.

Comparing his decent strikeout rate with lower strikeout rates posted by other prospects merely obfuscates the fact that Polanco doesn't strike out enough to throw up any red flags. That charts out to 100 strikeouts in a season - hardly a concern. Even if it spiked upward at the major league level it most likely still looks better than the pace that marte (for example) has established.

This article makes it out like you'll get the next ted williams if you give him more time to practice hitting against inferior pitchers. The only thing that happens if you leave him in AAA is a bunch of crafty bottom of the rotation types will start to figure out ways to limit the damage he can do - but those guys exist in the majors too. In many cases they're the exact same pitchers.
Take cumpton or gomez for example - these guys who could just as easily face polanco in AAA as in the majors. There's tons of those guys in AAA. He doesn't need to master the skill of dominating a bunch of sixth starters - and if he is or isn't going to master it he can learn to do it just about as well in the majors as in AAA.

The type of challenges that we can't be sure he can overcome will only happen when he's in Pittsburgh. When Polanco faces off against Verlander - that's when we'll know if he can handle Verlander. You could throw a million cumptons at him and it wouldn't tell you anything about whether or not he can hit a quality starter in the majors.

Always heard the jump from A+ to AA is the biggest within the minors, no way it's bigger than the jump from AAA to the majors, that lunacy to suggest.

It doesn't need to draw any conclusions, the premise is that guys who are top 10 prospects usually get a decent amount of bats, more than Polcano has had, at AA and AAA before making the bigs.

Red flags no, I agree.

Sure, the ultimate test is always the ultimate test, that doesn't mean the penultimate test can just be causally thrown out.

To put it another way, if Polcano comes up in June he will have roughly 600 PA's in AA and AAA, which would right about average for that list. If he made the team out of Spring Training like you wanted, he would have had less PA's than almost everyone on that list besides 4 guys.

 

[element1286]

I actually did wonder both about his K and BB rates, as well as how much his performance has been carried in no small part by an ungodly BABIP. I'm sure he'll be a good player if brought up now, but unless he stabilizes his K and BB rates relative to his own career norms, and preserves reasonable success when his batted ball luck inevitably regresses, I don't think he's ready to do what Pittsburgh fans seem to expect of him.

That's not to say he shouldn't be up now for the sake of the team, but I agree that in terms of his own development, this is not a bad thing.

I believe his BABIP because that isn't a reliable indicator at lower levels when guys are just better than their level.

As for k-bb

April: 104 PA's, 9BBs (8.7%), 16ks (15.4%)
May: 88 PA's, 9BBs (10.3%), 19ks (21.6%)

It's not alarming, but it's not nothing. 21% k is on the high end though, that's what Marte was doing at AAA, but Polanco's career number is around 16% so I'm guess that's is the most likely number.

 

[Illinest]

There is nnothing he can learn at AAA that he can't learn better in the majors - assuming that he's not toally overmatched.

If i were thrown onto the major league roster i'd learn nothing. I'd bat .000 and never have anything to build on. If Polanco bats .250/.300/.350 it wouldn't help the team much but it wouldnt "stunt" him either. AAA success doesn't prepare you to face Verlander.

Eventually Polanco will run into a lefty that presents a particularly tough matchup for him and he'll strike out 3 times in one game. That one game will inflate his monthly k rate from 16% up to 19%. It doesn't prove that he's struggling. It just proves that he didn't have that one really bad matchup in april.
Eventually Polanco will strike a few frozen ropes right at the 1B and a well struck ball will be counted as an out. Maybe a few of his long flyballs will be caught at the warning track instead of being a double. His stats will dip a bit.

Will that prove that he wasn't ready? No. It really won't prove anything.

The only thing we should be concerned about is whether he is capable of outplaying snider and tabata.

 

[Illinest]

Madden: It's Nutting's money, not yours - Mark Madden - Timesonline

Never thought i'd see the day when Madden is the only one making any sense. I love that paragraph near the bottom: "...getting the fans to treat his money like it's yours, even as he makes your money his"

 

[HammerDown]