Gordon: negotiations, legal maneuverings, and odds he'll play

[Sam Sportboy]

Ad the winner is.................

A full year suspension..................

 

[wilwhite]

So we're probably off to the courts pretty fast. Looks like that's what Gordon's team was planning for.

 

[jarntt]

Let's revisit that 98%

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Well there goes that decision. It's about freaking time.

 

[wilwhite]

If we suddenly find out that there was no settlement and the ruling goes against Gordon, my estimate drops to about 85% that he plays - which is still pretty high.

Let's revisit that 98%

Yeah - down to 85% now. Looks like this is what Rosenhaus was setting Gordon up for, so now it's time for him to do his bit.

 

[TREFF]

I give him 50/50 at best at getting this injunction (if he even tries it), another 50/50 the the NFL gets it thrown out before week 1.

But the bigger question to me, seeing that he has to apply for reinstatement at the end of the 2014 season, does he try and raise a stink? Or just take his punishment like a man keep his head down, nose clean, and start fresh in 2015?

Without suing the NFL, it's a virtual certainty that "applying for reinstatement" is a mere formality. But if he drags them into court, does that affect how his "application" is handled? I mean technically, the appeal of his "banishment with possible reinstatement" was upheld, they don't have to ever let him back in if they don't want to due to the "possible reinstatement" verbiage. I know I'd tread awfully lightly if I were Gordon, but then again I wouldn't have failed multiple drug tests either, so we obviously have different thought processes.

 

[averagejoe]

Since we're throwing out percentages, let me just add that, given Josh's short history, he has found a way to get in trouble in each of the last 3 years. Can he keep his nose clean while banned for 2014? His records would suggest that he cannot.

I say here's a 90% chance his troubles continue while suspended.
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I would even lean toward 100% chance, but I'm guessing that this latest "wake-up call" might be worth a 10% change in his associates and habits. Which is generous since HOF Cris Carter once said that the NFL doesn't change the type of person you were in college, it only intensifies you.

 

[Bunkamania]

I think there's a 100% chance he tokes up before the season starts next year.

 

[jarntt]

Yeah - down to 85% now. Looks like this is what Rosenhaus was setting Gordon up for, so now it's time for him to do his bit.

Still at 85%??? OK, I'll have to say your stats are still way off. Part 1 went just as I expected. I'll go with 5% chance he sees even one play this year. Better to serve your suspension while you are getting your life in order. But, who knows.

Or should I say the doctors say that Gordon has a 50/50 chance of playing, though there's only a 10% chance of that...

 

[Bandit]

I'm going to say there's 100% chance he doesn't play this year

 

[DUB]

#Bingo, I mean #bongo

-DUB-

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I think there's a 100% chance he tokes up before the season starts next year.

 

[wilwhite]

So the lawsuit talk has started already (no surprise).

And since Treff mentioned that the NFL has better lawyers than NASCAR (prolly true), thought I'd include yet another nugget where players successfully delayed their suspensions for a couple of years, this one against the NFL itself:

Pat and Kevin Williams cleared to play NFL season

Obviously the league tried to include a carrot by adding the possibility for Gordon to come back after the 2014 season rather than a full 365-day ban - that's smart, and adds the wrinkle that maybe Gordon won't sue... but I still think he will.

 

[wilwhite]

Saw something I wanted to know:

From dawgpoundnation:

Gordon barely tested positive for marijuana after successfully passing 72 consecutive NFL mandated drug tests.

Which means that since the codeine incident - last June I think - and this May when he failed the pot test, he had been tested 72 times, or about once every five days, and passed every time. (If they're right - they don't give their source.)

So if he was clean one week, and tested at such a minimal level the next week, it probably really was second-hand smoke. If, though, they tested him twice a week from June through December (say 60 tests), they might have only tested him twice a month during the off season to get to 72, and then there's a small chance he really did light up himself right after the next-to-last test figuring he had two weeks for the traces to possibly dissipate (although in people who were previously heavy pot users the THC count tends to stay higher longer).

 

[TREFF]

Saw something I wanted to know:

From dawgpoundnation:

Which means that since the codeine incident - last June I think - and this May when he failed the pot test, he had been tested 72 times, or about once every five days, and passed every time. (If they're right - they don't give their source.)

So if he was clean one week, and tested at such a minimal level the next week, it probably really was second-hand smoke. If, though, they tested him twice a week from June through December (say 60 tests), they might have only tested him twice a month during the off season to get to 72, and then there's a small chance he really did light up himself right after the next-to-last test figuring he had two weeks for the traces to possibly dissipate (although in people who were previously heavy pot users the THC count tends to stay higher longer).

Not exactly sure what you're trying to say here. There are numerous ways to dilute your sample which, while it won't rid the urine of all THC, can result in lower results. The simplest of which is massive exercise. Doesn't take much assuming that an athlete who had low body fat already wouldn't need to bust as too much more than normal to metabolize a significant amount. Fluids, water..an always possible new masking agent that has yet to be tested. I'm not buying second hand smoke for a second.

Edited: if the guy at Balco had a system for Barry Bonds to beat a test down to a window of five minutes, I have no doubts there's someone doing the same for guys like this and pot

 

[wilwhite]

I have a hard time believing Gordon's killing it in the off-season just to beat tests - but I can believe there might be other tricks up his sleeve.

As a guy-on-the-street matter, yeah, I don't trust Josh Gordon. Dude seems troubled and like a gold mine of bad decisions. But judges don't think that way. Because of those 72 clean tests, Gordon's camp can say to a judge "he's staying clean despite hanging with the wrong guys, and all the test results back that story up" and the judge turns to the league and says, "why do you think that's not the case?" the league is either stuck with "according to the letter of the policy, he tested positive" or maybe "he might be playing games to beat the tests, and so we think that one nanogram is indicative of something more (but we have no proof)."

And yeah, from a human perspective the worst thing for Gordon might be to get a pass when he really is trying to game the system. But I'm just crassly thinking about it from a how-can-he-play perspective.

I'm sure that's how Rosenhaus is looking at it.

 

[jarntt]

Saw something I wanted to know:

From dawgpoundnation:

Which means that since the codeine incident - last June I think - and this May when he failed the pot test, he had been tested 72 times, or about once every five days, and passed every time. (If they're right - they don't give their source.)

So if he was clean one week, and tested at such a minimal level the next week, it probably really was second-hand smoke. If, though, they tested him twice a week from June through December (say 60 tests), they might have only tested him twice a month during the off season to get to 72, and then there's a small chance he really did light up himself right after the next-to-last test figuring he had two weeks for the traces to possibly dissipate (although in people who were previously heavy pot users the THC count tends to stay higher longer).

Wow. I didn't actually think anyone would believe a story like that.

 

[wilwhite]

Dumb on my part not to figure in Goodell being crafty with the suspension. Looks like no lawsuit at all - best thing for Gordon. (Still think he would have got an injunction and played at least part of the year, but also probably would have lost the case and pissed everybody off in the process.)

Even if it was only second-hand smoke (and no matter what else, he was sure getting that), he'd do well to start running with a different crowd because that won't stop. Don't care about pot, in general, but in his case I think it's a sign of trouble.

 

[TREFF]

Dumb on my part not to figure in Goodell being crafty with the suspension. Looks like no lawsuit at all - best thing for Gordon. (Still think he would have got an injunction and played at least part of the year, but also probably would have lost the case and pissed everybody off in the process.)

Even if it was only second-hand smoke (and no matter what else, he was sure getting that), he'd do well to start running with a different crowd because that won't stop. Don't care about pot, in general, but in his case I think it's a sign of trouble.

Is not so much what he did as it is the continued disregard for the rules that bothers me. It's not that hard. . Just don't do what your told not to do.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Update: Gordon selling used cars (kinda)