Free Agent signings so far

[tzill]

Taken from Scott Willis:

Name bWAR fWAR Total Salary ($M) Salary After 73 Games ($M)
Aubrey Huff -1.3 -0.6 10.00 4.51
Miguel Tejeda -0.4 -0.7 6.50 2.93
Pat Burrell 0.7 0.5 1.00 0.45
Mike Fontenot 0.5 0.5 1.05 0.47
Guillermo Mota 0.3 0.3 0.93 0.42
Ryan Vogelsong 2.6 1.5 0.42 0.19
Total 2.4 1.5 19.89 8.96


Overall things don't look too bad, the Giants are paying $3.7 million per WAR based on the baseball-reference measure and $5.9 million per WAR based on the fangraphs measure. The $3.7 would be slightly below average and the $5.9 slightly above average.

The two biggest acquisitions have essentially been busts with both producing at below replacement level but luckily for Brain Sabean he was able to find a gem in Ryan Vogelsong who has been excellent while also being a bargain after only signing a minor league contract before the season.

If we take away the Huff deal Sabean looks like a genius, if way take away Vogelsong he looks like a doofus. I guess that is the fine line the general managers walk in Major League Baseball.


GP, what are your thoughts on the difference between Baseball Prospectus' WAR and Fangraph's WAR?

 

[msgkings322]

I guess you are just looking at 2011, but can we really say Huff signing = Sabean's a doofus after what happened in 2010?

 

[gp956]

Taken from Scott Willis:

Name bWAR fWAR Total Salary ($M) Salary After 73 Games ($M)
Aubrey Huff -1.3 -0.6 10.00 4.51
Miguel Tejeda -0.4 -0.7 6.50 2.93
Pat Burrell 0.7 0.5 1.00 0.45
Mike Fontenot 0.5 0.5 1.05 0.47
Guillermo Mota 0.3 0.3 0.93 0.42
Ryan Vogelsong 2.6 1.5 0.42 0.19
Total 2.4 1.5 19.89 8.96


Overall things don't look too bad, the Giants are paying $3.7 million per WAR based on the baseball-reference measure and $5.9 million per WAR based on the fangraphs measure. The $3.7 would be slightly below average and the $5.9 slightly above average.

The two biggest acquisitions have essentially been busts with both producing at below replacement level but luckily for Brain Sabean he was able to find a gem in Ryan Vogelsong who has been excellent while also being a bargain after only signing a minor league contract before the season.

If we take away the Huff deal Sabean looks like a genius, if way take away Vogelsong he looks like a doofus. I guess that is the fine line the general managers walk in Major League Baseball.


GP, what are your thoughts on the difference between Baseball Prospectus' WAR and Fangraph's WAR?

I haven't really looked at either of those in depth. I'd do it now, but I'm catching up on a bunch of stuff, gonna be out for most of the rest of the day through Monday. But, in general, the stats for defense introduce subjectivity and systematic error, and the choice of a pitching metric is somewhat subjective as well. So I wouldn't put too much weight in the output of those systems. Perhaps some of the errors and subjectivity can cancel by using a linear combination of the two?

 

[tzill]

So Crick signed yesterday. Here's an update on Susac:

I believe that a large overslot deal (I'm guessing about $1.15M) will be announced on August 15th. We should be seeing Susac playing in the AZL or NWL later in August and then he should move up to SJ in September at least in time for the playoffs. Susac was signed to play for the Falmouth Commodores of the Cape Cod League before the draft but has never showed up to play, which leads me to believe that there is an agreement already in place. The one sticking point is that Susac might get scared off by Mr. Gerald Posey III. He might worry that Posey will block him from catching full time in the majors for the next 10 years, and, since he is a draft-eligible sophomore he has 2 more chances to get drafted. He could easily by a top 10 draftee next June if he returns to OSU next year and remains healthy.


I think he's already agreed to terms.

 

[calsnowskier]

Awesome news about crick and susac!!

I am waiting on opaposa. That kid looks like he could be a beast.

 

[tzill]

Awesome news about crick and susac!!

I am waiting on opaposa. That kid looks like he could be a beast.

Yup, I believe that a large overslot deal (I'm guessing around $500K) should be announced on August 15th. We should be seeing Oropesa playing in the AZL or NWL by the 3rd week of August and then he could move up to SJ in September in time for the playoffs if he performs well. Oropesa has not played anywhere this summer, which leads me to believe that the 2 sides are at least close to an agreement. Oropesa's family have already held a "draft party" for him the Saturday after the draft and Ricky was already wearing a SF Giants t-shirt. Finally, in an interview held a few days after the draft Oropesa had this to say about his disappointment on falling so far out of the first round:
“It’s going to add fire and drive to my passion for the game and I’m going to show these guys that I’m first-round talent."

 

[Stokes1931]

I don't know what this guy is smoking, but it must be powerful stuff. While I would love to see a guy like Michael Bourn come to the Giants (averages 52 steals a season, lifetime .267 average with an OBP of .335, with solid defense), the asking price would be way too high. And if Brown or Peguero can make the jump to the big club in 2011, 2012, or 2013, Bourn would be needed. He will be 29 this year.

Trade Scenarios: Michael Bourn To The San Francisco Giants | MLB Baseball Blog - Baseball Information, News, and Updates

Here is the guy's conclusion:

Trade One: Houston trades Michael Bourn to the Giants for Zach Wheeler, Francisco Peguero and Hector Sanchez - In this trade, Houston gets a big, big pitching prospect from a team that is much like Atlanta in having good, young rotational depth. They'd be taking a risk on Wheeler's control, but in getting Peguero too as a potential Bourn replacement, the Astros would have two future big leaguers. The value of this deal ($20 million) is less than Bourn's probably worth, but as we mentioned earlier, Houston's unlikely to get full value for their speedy center fielder.

Trade Two: Houston trades Michael Bourn to the Giants for Gary Brown, Eric Surkamp and Chris Dominguez - Much like the trade above, this one focuses on one big prospect and a couple more intriguing guys. Brown is the big get, providing a future Bourn replacement and a prospect to rival George Springer as the top prospect in the system. Surkamp is a pretty advanced pitching prospect on a team that, as we mentioned, has good rotational depth already. He would also give Houston another advanced guy to pair with all the Corpus Christi players. Dominguez would be a throw-in, but he's got the same potential that Chris Johnson has showed and is younger. Depending on how you value Brown, this deal comes pretty close to getting full value for Bourn.

Trade Three: Houston trades Michael Bourn to the Giants for Wheeler, Brown and Surkamp - This is the most unlikely trade, and also the most valuable one. First off, the Giants would almost certainly not trade their last two first-round picks in one deal. Secondly, that's a whole lot of value for a player who won't be perceived as being worth that. Thirdly, the Giants are going to have to face the reality that their window is smaller with the current lineup and they'll need to pair players like Brown with Posey and Sandoval to compete in the future. Still, this would be a big-time win for Houston.

We could also talk about throwing in guys like Sergio Romo or Madison Bumgarner into deals, but I feel a team trying to get back to the World Series would be less likely to hurt its major league roster for a player like Bourn. What do you think? Which deals work best for both sides? Are there any players I missed who would fit into a trade with San Fran?

While Bourn is a good player, the asking price in each of these scenarios is NUTS! And "throwing in" Romo or Madbum?!? Must be good stuff he's tokin'.

 

[tzill]

Bourn is an intriguing player. He's approximately a 5.0 WAR guy, and those guys are pretty rare. He's in his prime (28) and under team control through 2012. I'd probably make deal #2 if we felt reasonably sure we could secure him to a four year deal this off season. I wouldn't want him on a longer deal, and certainly not a shorter one if we're giving up Brown and Surkamp. I'd hold onto Wheeler, who we will need in 2014 when Zeet's contract expires. We'd have to be careful, though -- we need room in 2012 for Timmy, Song and Panda, and maybe Chez. In 2013 we'd need room for Timmy, Weez, Chez, Song, Buster, Panda, and Bum. In 2014, Zeets comes off the books so we'd be OK there. Something like four years/$45MM? Structured 8-10-12-15?

 

[Stokes1931]

Tzill- I suppose door #2 looks better than the others. However, Brown would be under our control longer for similar production (projected), and Surkamp looks like a very fine pitcher. Obviously we have to trade value for value, but I would worry about giving up too much, and over extending our "budget".

But Bourn looks more attractive to me than Pence. I really like the 52 SB average (per 162 games). His OBP looks a little low to me, however, for this kind of hitter.

And the cost of getting Beltran may be lower, with the Mutts' budget mess.

If it was a deal we had to do, I'd go with your salary structure.

 

[tzill]

Tzill- I suppose door #2 looks better than the others. However, Brown would be under our control longer for similar production (projected), and Surkamp looks like a very fine pitcher. Obviously we have to trade value for value, but I would worry about giving up too much, and over extending our "budget".

But Bourn looks more attractive to me than Pence. I really like the 52 SB average (per 162 games). His OBP looks a little low to me, however, for this kind of hitter.

And the cost of getting Beltran may be lower, with the Mutts' budget mess.

If it was a deal we had to do, I'd go with your salary structure.

Careful about those projected stats for minor leaguers. I agree Brown is special, but Bourne is an ESTABLISHED 5.0 WAR player -- those guys are very rare. Think Matt Cain rare. I agree that it's probably not doable for the same reason Pence is not doable -- we need the budget for our homegrown stars. For point of comparison, Pence is having a 5.0 WAR year, but he'd never had anything close to that before. Bourne did it last year as well as this year.