Extending Zito

[calsnowskier]

We all know that after '13, Zito's contract is "up".

His contract for '14 is a team option for 18M with a 7M buyout. The 7M is sunk. Nothing we can do about that. In essence, we can have him back in '14 for 11M.

If he pitches next year similar to the way he has this year, do the Giants pick up his option?

At this point, I am not 100% sure they use the buyout...

 

[msgkings322]

We all know that after '13, Zito's contract is "up".

His contract for '14 is a team option for 18M with a 7M buyout. The 7M is sunk. Nothing we can do about that. In essence, we can have him back in '14 for 11M.

If he pitches next year similar to the way he has this year, do the Giants pick up his option?

At this point, I am not 100% sure they use the buyout...

An excellent question. He's obviously having his best year ever as a Giant. He's a durable lefty. He'd probably get close to $11 mil from someone else...but he wouldn't be worth it. He's still the 5th starter, assuming Timmy gets back to reliably decent. You can find other fifth starters for far less.

Timmy might be the key. If we are going to trade him next year, we'll have another rotation hole.

 

[calsnowskier]

An excellent question. He's obviously having his best year ever as a Giant. He's a durable lefty. He'd probably get close to $11 mil from someone else...but he wouldn't be worth it. He's still the 5th starter, assuming Timmy gets back to reliably decent. You can find other fifth starters for far less.

Timmy might be the key. If we are going to trade him next year, we'll have another rotation hole.

Any idea what the schedule is like for when a team needs to act on options? I think he has opened the possibility enough that they will certainly NOT be using the buyout at the earliest point, which most of us would have assumed they would have.

Another possibility is that they buy him out, then sign him at LESS then 11M...

 

[msgkings322]

If we get that far (in the playoffs) I'm curious who will turn out to be our 4th starter, Zito or Lincecum

 

[MarcoPolo]

I think it also largely depends on what the minor-league arms do in 2013, and whether they decide to sign Timmy or not (2013 is also his last year under contract). If Surkamp looks ready, Heston has a great year in Fresno, etc.

By the time Oct 2013 rolls around, how much is a average arm (4.0-ish ERA) going to be worth on the FA market? At least $6M, probably more (maybe considerably more). And the less money they are paying other pitchers means it might be a worth-while gamble to keep Zito (Surkamp + Heston + Hembree/Bochy + Kontos + Kickham/... is a lot of cheap pitching).

 

[calsnowskier]

I think it also largely depends on what the minor-league arms do in 2013, and whether they decide to sign Timmy or not (2013 is also his last year under contract). If Surkamp looks ready, Heston has a great year in Fresno, etc.

By the time Oct 2013 rolls around, how much is a average arm (4.0-ish ERA) going to be worth on the FA market? At least $6M, probably more (maybe considerably more). And the less money they are paying other pitchers means it might be a worth-while gamble to keep Zito (Surkamp + Heston + Hembree/Bochy + Kontos + Kickham/... is a lot of cheap pitching).

The kids are the main equation, I think. By '14, Kickham and Heston should both have already had their tastes of SF with Crick, Blackburn and Stratton all just about ready (or busted/traded). We should also know where Sukamp's arm is.

I think with this many options available in the minors on the 2014-ish ETA, I fall back into the camp of "He is getting bought out".

 

[SFAnthem]

If we get that far (in the playoffs) I'm curious who will turn out to be our 4th starter, Zito or Lincecum

Cain-Bum-Vogelsong..and if trailing in the series, Cain on short rest

 

[calsnowskier]

If we get that far (in the playoffs) I'm curious who will turn out to be our 4th starter, Zito or Lincecum

I think they HAVE to go with Timmeh, on a short leash. He has the post-season stud experience.

 

[Giantsmojo]

I think they HAVE to go with Timmeh, on a short leash. He has the post-season stud experience.

So does Zito, just 10 years ago.

 

[calsnowskier]

So does Zito, just 10 years ago.

This year, when Timmeh was "on", he has been as good as any pitcher in the game. When Zito is "on", he is a good #2.

Whoever they end up going with is on a short leash, but the other is ready to go as the B starter.

 

[dredinis21]

We have enough pitching in the mid-minors that should be AA/AAA starters starting next season (Crick, Stratton, Blackburn) that we could continue the recent trend to call up pitchers young and let them figure out what the Major Leagues are all about. Zito, at anywhere around 10 mil is a HELL NO from me. At 6 mil as our 5th starter (assuming Timmeh gets his respective head out of his own ass and goes back to being something we can all recognize), it still may not be worth it if one of our up and coming starters can get his feet wet in the bigs at $300,000 and do a comparable job.

Maybe I'm too jaded, but I've had about my fill of whatever Zito has been serving Giants fans. Call me an HF, but there's no way I want Zito anywhere near my rotation after his current contract is up or we can pawn him off to some sap for a spittoon and a pouch of Redman.

Just the thought has me reaching for my heart meds.

 

[MarcoPolo]

We have enough pitching in the mid-minors that should be AA/AAA starters starting next season (Crick, Stratton, Blackburn) that we could continue the recent trend to call up pitchers young and let them figure out what the Major Leagues are all about. Zito, at anywhere around 10 mil is a HELL NO from me. At 6 mil as our 5th starter (assuming Timmeh gets his respective head out of his own ass and goes back to being something we can all recognize), it still may not be worth it if one of our up and coming starters can get his feet wet in the bigs at $300,000 and do a comparable job.

Maybe I'm too jaded, but I've had about my fill of whatever Zito has been serving Giants fans. Call me an HF, but there's no way I want Zito anywhere near my rotation after his current contract is up or we can pawn him off to some sap for a spittoon and a pouch of Redman.

Just the thought has me reaching for my heart meds.

Major League minimum will be $490K next year and $500K starting in 2014.

 

[dredinis21]

Fair enough, I stand corrected. Either way, ain't a whole lotta dough.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am in agreement that Zito is not with the G's come '14, barring some huge trade/injury. However, if he continues to pitch well, we could trade him and 10M in the off season for a B+prospect or two. That would require the G's sign a journeyman #5 to a 1 yr deal, though.

On a further thought, can we continue to expect Vogey to be Vogey past '13?

 

[OzzieGiant]

On a further thought, can we continue to expect Vogey to be Vogey past '13?

At this point in time he has earned the right for the last 12 months to be considered the 'norm' so yes.

However, even though he has relatively low mileage and I expect we could get 2 more seasons from him, I have a feeling that when the decline does start it will be dramatic.

 

[msgkings322]

At this point in time he has earned the right for the last 12 months to be considered the 'norm' so yes.

However, even though he has relatively low mileage and I expect we could get 2 more seasons from him, I have a feeling that when the decline does start it will be dramatic.

Perhaps, perhaps not. Vogey is a control guy not a velocity guy, maybe he keeps his control going into his late 30s.

Timmy is a better example of a dramatic decline, due to velocity issues. We'll see if he figures out how to be a good pitcher with his new situation. It's looking better lately.

 

[OzzieGiant]

Perhaps, perhaps not. Vogey is a control guy not a velocity guy, maybe he keeps his control going into his late 30s.

I agree I think this may be a confidence thing though - IF he starts to put in consistent poorer performances I can see the wheels falling off - right now you can see in his eyes he fears NO ONE.

 

[dredinis21]

I agree I think this may be a confidence thing though - IF he starts to put in consistent poorer performances I can see the wheels falling off - right now you can see in his eyes he fears NO ONE.

I don't see his confidence being shaken. He has proven to be the most consistent pitcher on our staff over the last 2 season. If Bochy hangs with Timmeh for half a season of 6 ERA ball, then a few bad starts aren't going to stop Bochy from throwing Vogey out there every 5th day...and that's the only thing that Vogey can possibly fear.

 

[OzzieGiant]

I agree I think this may be a confidence thing though - IF he starts to put in consistent poorer performances I can see the wheels falling off - right now you can see in his eyes he fears NO ONE.

Is it time consider Vogey may be done ERA 10+ and no sign of improving - our SP is starting to bite

 

[SFAnthem]

Is it time consider Vogey may be done ERA 10+ and no sign of improving - our SP is starting to bite

Not done but if they can close out the division early maybe they can shut him down for a start or two and see if that helps.