El Toro Splits

[evolver115]

Just heard this on the radio and was stunned. Take a look at this:

Day Games 2012:

.295 | .348 | .869 | 1.217

18 hits | 10 HR's | 21 RBI's



Night Games 2012:

.167 | .234 | .258 | .492

22 hits | 2HR's | 13 RBI's


:wacko:

Unreal, isn't it?!?

Pedro has 76 fewer plate appearances in day games, as opposed to night games, and only 4 fewer hits.

 

[evolver115]

Look at what happens when you extrapolate his numbers to 162 games, or 650 plate appearances:

Pedro Alvarez 2012 Batting Splits (per 162 games or 650 PAs) - Baseball-Reference.com

There is obviously something to this. He must be having problems picking up the ball in night games. I hope the PBC staff is aware of this.

 

[element1286]

Interesting, is this a career trend, or just something that is happening this year?

 

[evolver115]

Day Career #'s:

.256 | .322 | .498 | .820

245 plate appearances | 14 HR's | 35 RBI's



Night Career #'s:

.212 | .286 | .371 | .656

617 plate appearances | 18 HR's | 82 RBI's

 

[sychmd]

Options:
1. trade him to the cubs for a couple studs.
2. change our games to day games saying we are going green.
3. get a better backdrop(hitters eye most places call it) in CF for him to pick up the ball
4. improve the lighting at PNC for night games.
5. get him an eye doctor and get some glasses.

i vote for 5 mixed with 3 and checking out 4.
is there anywhere he has hit at night to compare the lighting there to PNC. atl and stl were the night game homers. didnt go through the other stats to determine the best stdiums and compare hitters eye and lightiing issues.

2011, hit slightly better in day, but all 4 HR at nite
2010, hit sl better at night but a lot more 2B and RBI at night.

evolver, interesting find. thanks

 

[evolver115]

I think he needs to visit an eye doctor. There is obviously something to be said about his splits between day and night games. If you look at it from an age standpoint, it appears as if the contrast is becoming more pronounced as Pedro gets older. Which would make sense as your eyesight changes as you age, and by change I mean it gets worse.

 

[Illinest]

The splits for 2012 are pretty extreme but we're only a third of a way through the season. If you'd looked at his day/night splits in 2010 or 2011 you'd have the opposite conclusion. He was better at night in each of the prior seasons.

I think this is a case of a small sample size making a split look more extreme than it really is.

 

[sychmd]

maybe he is an early riser, or likes breakfast and isnt so good at dinner.
what does he do the night before.
lots of variables can play into it.

some of them seemed like the last game of a series as well. odd, maybe he is better when given less time to focus on the task and can just wakeup, get to the field and let it rip.

 

[magnumo]

The splits for 2012 are pretty extreme but we're only a third of a way through the season. If you'd looked at his day/night splits in 2010 or 2011 you'd have the opposite conclusion. He was better at night in each of the prior seasons.

I think this is a case of a small sample size making a split look more extreme than it really is.

I think you may be right. OTOH, the splits are so extreme that consultation with eye doctors may be appropriate. That cost would be very small, and anything which helps Alvarez stay "zoned in" would help the Pirates immensely.

 

[evolver115]

The splits for 2012 are pretty extreme but we're only a third of a way through the season. If you'd looked at his day/night splits in 2010 or 2011 you'd have the opposite conclusion. He was better at night in each of the prior seasons.

I think this is a case of a small sample size making a split look more extreme than it really is.

2010 Day #'s:

.244 | .315 | .427 | .742

92 Plate Appearances | 4 HR's | 10 RBI's

2010 Night #'s:

.260 | .330 | .472 | .802

294 Plate Appearances | 12 HR's | 54 RBI's




2011 Day #'s:

.237 | .310 | .276 | .586

84 Plate Appearances | 0 HR's 4 RBI's

2011 Night #'s:

.170 | .254 | .296 | .550

178 Plate Appearances | 4 HR's | 15 RBI's


Those stats don't lead me to believe it is the opposite, more just a return to the mean. Last season, he had a better batting average, on base % and a better OPS in day games, as opposed to night games.

This season, there is a very stark contrast to his day/night splits. I think there is something to be said for those differences. Like I said before, look at the gradual progression. As he is getting older, he is showing more of a tendency to hit better in day situations. That just can't be ignored, IMHO.

 

[Etrius24]

Pedro is as streaky as any player I have seen from recent memory... he seems to hit well for a few games and his homeruns all come in bunches... It would be interesting to go back over the stretches where he played well and hit everything to see if they were all day games...

And then you just have to ask if it was because he was red hot that he was hitting... or if it was because he was playing day games one after another that allowed him to get red hot.

The sample size is so small for this year... But the team has it's own physicians...I am sure there is someone to give the guy an eye exam.

 

[steelparrot]

Whatever it is, he just needs to do a little bit better during his cold streaks so he can bat .250+ for the year. He walks enough, all he needs is to get his average up a bit.

We cant give up on him anytime soon, his upside it through the roof.

If we are sending people to the optometrist, I'd send Jones too see why he went from 2/1 k/bb to 8/1 this season.

 

[Darkstone42]

Anything the Pirates can try which could result in Pedro becoming consistent, they should try. He's too good when he's good and too bad when he's bad to not try.

 

[Illinest]

If Alvarez continues in this way for the rest of his career would you be glad that he became a productive player or would you be sad for the greatness that never came to pass?

 

[evolver115]

If Alvarez continues in this way for the rest of his career would you be glad that he became a productive player or would you be sad for the greatness that never came to pass?

I would take it in its current form only if Pedro's power numbers balanced out his horrible on base % and batting average. maybe similar to Adam Dunn without the walks. Never gonna have a BA above .250, and his on base % will never be respectable, but have him mash 40 homers a year with 80 RBI's, I couldn't regret that. The pirates need that type of power, desperately. I believe he could do something similar, too. The guy is just discovering his major league potential.

 

[element1286]

If Alvarez continues in this way for the rest of his career would you be glad that he became a productive player or would you be sad for the greatness that never came to pass?

I'd be ok with Pedro in his current incarnation, but I don't buy he can put up a 220/280/480 line for multiple years to come....I think its likely he will he will either bust out completely or improve.

 

[sychmd]

i agree, as pedro builds in confidence and experience, he will be more relaxed and in routine.

i expect he can average 270-290, will draw more walks as our lineup gets better and pitchers fear his one swing will change a game ability. so obp around 350-375.
slg 550 so will ops 900-950.

32 - 42 HR
100 - 115 RBI
25-40 2B
3 3B
90-105 R

and his fielding will get more consistent. he has the tools, can barehand, charge, dig it down the line, and has a rifle. confidence and offensive production will allow for defensive consistency to happen.

one of the biggest issues i believe, and i see this in many baseball players, is getting fat. mentally they get a bit complacent, but i am talking physically.
after 27 yo, their metabolism isnt the same and work ethic wanes, even just 10-12 pounds really starts to limit the torque, flexibility, range, speed, and strength. it hinders the desire to continue to improve their craft, and nagging injuries set in which obviously accelerates the worries above.

pedro is built big to start with, and might, by others accounts, have a wt issue in the past. he has to be very on top of this because it will be a major force in setting pedros ceiling, imho.

 

[Darkstone42]

I don't see the average ever getting up over .260, and will likely sit around .250 for most of his career, but I do see the OBP jumping, as early as later this year, up to the .350-.375 range. Why? I think he'll draw more walks. The process is already starting, as his walk rate has been improving of late, even during his last cold streak, but the big accelerating factor will be his power. He's on pace for 31 home runs this year, and 83 RBIs, and that kind of run-producing potential in an otherwise soft-hitting lineup will earn him a lot more walks both intentional and unintentional.

 

[magnumo]

If Alvarez continues in this way for the rest of his career would you be glad that he became a productive player or would you be sad for the greatness that never came to pass?

That's a thought-provoking question, but I don't see those two alternatives as mutually exclusive..... i.e., your question is NOT an "either-or" question.

I believe the original consensus (or at least hope) among Pirate fans was that Pedro would be a perennial all-star..... a consistent middle-of-the-order run producer..... a .300 hitter with 35-40 (or more) HR's and 100+ RBI's. Those expectations clearly have come down as Alvarez has struggled. Seems that the CURRENT consensus (or at least the hope) is somewhere in the neighborhood of .250 hitter with 30+ HR's and 80+ RBI's. So.....

- If he doesn't reach the original consensus, I definitely will be SAD. I had visions that Pedro would be both a perennial all-star and a Hall-of-Famer.

- I'll be GLAD if he reaches the current consensus. Production is production, and the current consensus would define Pedro as a contributor to the offense, although not as much of a contributor as I had hoped.

I'll be incredibly SAD and DISAPPOINTED (with no GLADNESS in sight) if he busts..... which, as element pointed out, continues to have a non-zero chance of occurring.

 

[Etrius24]

Good things happen when players start walking more... Plate discipline usually is a great indicator of future success... We all know he has the power to become a really good offensive player... Batting average is nice, but it is not the be all and end all offensively.

So if Pedro can cut down on the strikeouts and walk a little bit more he could be a guy that gets on base more than 35% of the time...Even if his average is .250- ish. I could live with Pedro being a little more consistent at the .850+ OPS level... Work hard on defense... hit 35 homeruns... walk 75 times a year...Not a super duper star... but a damned good baseball player.

He has already been in the league for a couple of years...So this is what season 3 of his service time... I would hope that he turns the corner sometime this year and starts producing at the next level from then on... Because the Pirates will be on year 4 of Pedro in 2013...and he will be a free agent come 2015....after the season that is... I would like the Bucs to have him at his peak and being productive for as long as possible... If Pedro can pull it together and be a 35 homerun guy that has a OPS above .850 for the next three years in conjunction with McCutchen...This offense could be really decent and the Bucs could compete for the post season possibly all three of those years....

What a concept!