DL...the good, the bad, and the ugly

[cubzzzfanincali]

been pretty quiet out here so figured I'd throw a log on the fire. Just checking the FO DL ranks, here's how our boys are currently standing up:

Their primary run ranking stat is Adjusted Line Yards. They take runs and score them as follows:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

The idea here being that once they get past the line, it becomes less the line's "fault" that the RB makes it 6 or 12 or 34 yards....that's the back 7's job. Like it or not, now you understand it.

So according to that, the Bears DL is 32nd in the league against the run.

Things are a little better in the short yardage game on 3rd downs and goal lines. In those situations, the Bear run D rises to 22nd, probably reflecting good LB and SS play when more guys in the box.

Alas, they are back to 32nd in the league in percentage of running plays stuffed (no gain or negative yards).

They are 23rd in 2nd level yards and 11th in open field yards, meaning as you move back in the defense, the run defense of the Bears gets better and better versus the rest of league defenses.

In sack rate, which takes into account sacks (edit:AND snaps), the Bears are last. FO does not run stats on hurries.

As far as "which part" of the D line is getting gashed, from the perspective of the offense's left to right (D's right to left corresponds to O left), we are 23/29/19/29/32. Pretty symmetrical, with the DEs generally having more trouble than the interior (particularly the DE on the defensive left).

So there you have it. Yes, they are just statistics, but stats do tell you something.

 

[leomaz]

DAMN

 

[blh7068]

Yes, they are just statistics, but stats do tell you something.

Well, they support whats been observed. The way theyre sorted can offer detail wrt where and when the breakdowns are occurring. Good stuff.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

I would not have expected that we are at 32. I don't pay attention much to stats. I am a eye ball kinda guy. We look much better then last year. It would be interesting to have last years stats to compare to. Were competing with last years team in my mind. This is a rebuild year for me. I'm not even looking at the other teams this year.

 

[anotheridiot]

There is probably a way to decipher these stats to make them look better since there is the thought process that the defensive lines job is to sacrifice their stats to keep the linemen off the linebackers so they can make tackles. So if the d line looks putrid and the linebackers are ranked high, the line is actually doing its job.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Well, sure, obviously, but the concept that linemen sacrifice to allow LBs to thrive isn't unique to the Bears. The Bear run defense isn't somehow killing it because they are the only ones with linemen sacrificing their all. There are only 5 teams with worse running back yards per rush than us. And the short yardage and stuff ranks are team stats (just included because those tend to be very heavily dominated by the line's play).

Maybe you can take that and make them look a little better, but not very much.

Hey, it's a learning year, we have some new players, some is to be expected and tolerated. But by any account, it isn't pretty.

 

[JoeyTourettes]

this whole thread = debbie downer... way to kill the mood

 

[beardown07]

So the D line is not that great on a Defense that is still way better than the last two years, rebuild or not.


ESPN stats have us #9 overall, #5 in pass D and #20 in rush D.


When compared to the same ESPN stat guidelines from the last two years, we are light years ahead of where we were.


This D is better than the previous two.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

I agree the D is a little better than the previous two, and moving in the right direction.

But I think your stats are a little off. On a game-adjusted basis, we rate worse. In points per game, we are tied for last. In rush yards per game, we are 26th. Pass yards per game at first looks a little better, at 6th.

So you say "hey great we are 6th in pass yards"....well...look at why. When you take it even further into a snap-adjusted rank, it gets a lot worse. Don't forget, the Bears have played most of the season from behind. We have the third fewest pass attempts against us per game (30.5, league average 36), so of course the yards per game are lower. And teams that have leads play way more prevent defense than we do, meaning the Bears are giving up fewer meaningless yards and more meaningful yards. Defensive efficiencies (which take snaps into account) are 29th per run and 26th in pass.

It's a little better at 23rd 1st downs per game. Unfortunately we are back to 29th in 3rd down conversions.

They are also last in sack rate (again, not total sacks....accounting for games and snaps).

And 28th in turnovers per game.

I'm really sorry, but there's just no nice way to say this, but the defense's actual performance - especially the run defense, is simply not good.

You don't even need stats. Look at the games. Green Bay gashed us terribly on the run. Arizona did pretty well running, and passed fine against us until the built a huge lead and no longer needed to pass. Seattle was one of our better defensive games, and Rawls killed us on the ground. They also played pretty well against Oakland. Then we were getting eaten alive by KC until Charles went out, and if you want to argue that didn't affect KC, I'll just point out that in the 32 minutes with Charles they gained about 5 times the yardage they gained in the 28 minutes after he went out. The defense sucks ass against the then-struggling Lions, before they had a great bye week featuring Ryan Pace and the police department preventing a onetime starter from harming anything. OK sorry the last one was a cheap shot and unfair. Couldn't help it.

Look, I'm not trying to get all Jay Cutler on you and throw facts on this, but the facts are simply not good. What I think we all like is that unlike 2 years ago, at least the guys running around are young and new guys, instead of old guys we know aren't going to get any better. These guys can get better. They do show flashes. But if you take off your hope for the future glasses for a second and see what's out there now, it ain't pretty. Sorry, it just isn't.

 

[beardown07]

So, yer saying we're not going to win it all this year!?

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Heh. Yeah. Guess so.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

Were headed in the right direction with young guys. Stats don't matter.

 

[leomaz]

Pass rusher is a huge need in the upcoming draft

 

[anotheridiot]

My only disappointment with the defense this year is they did not do any hybrid packages when they had clear 4-3 defensive end personnel on the roster and instead made them linebackers. They had an opportunity to play both a 3-4 and a 4-3 at teams and throw the opposition off. Wasting the 11 million roster bonus on Allen had me thinking they were going to run more of a hybrid or at least change things up. Long term for the yutes is probably a good thing they stuck with one system, just thought there was a window this year while they turn the roster over to more of a 3-4 line.

 

[nebearsfan70]

What I learned from this thread is that the Bears still suck on defense. Okay, I see that, but dammit we are still better than last year... I think.

 

[JoeyTourettes]

Last year we had monster lapses in coverage with Wrs open by 15 yards. Blown coverage, and a maddeningly high rush yards per game given up.
This year the coverage is decent (amazing throws/catches have happened) and have some inexperienced players all over the field. The arrow is pointing up for sure

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

My only disappointment with the defense this year is they did not do any hybrid packages when they had clear 4-3 defensive end personnel on the roster and instead made them linebackers. They had an opportunity to play both a 3-4 and a 4-3 at teams and throw the opposition off. Wasting the 11 million roster bonus on Allen had me thinking they were going to run more of a hybrid or at least change things up. Long term for the yutes is probably a good thing they stuck with one system, just thought there was a window this year while they turn the roster over to more of a 3-4 line.

I think Fango is playing it very safe because of the talent level. He is not bringing the wood or stunting much. He IMO is not using his full playbook. Smart of him right now.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

So the D line is not that great on a Defense that is still way better than the last two years, rebuild or not.


ESPN stats have us #9 overall, #5 in pass D and #20 in rush D.


When compared to the same ESPN stat guidelines from the last two years, we are light years ahead of where we were.


This D is better than the previous two.

It's still pretty crappy. I don't buy those stats. They definitely have improved though. Getting rid of Mel Tucker and bringing in Fangio is the reason for that. Tucker was complete shit and everyone knew it before he came to Chicago. If they can get the proper personnel that would thrive in Fangios defense, then we might be able to become the monsters of the midway again.

 

[beardown07]

It's still pretty crappy. I don't buy those stats. They definitely have improved though. Getting rid of Mel Tucker and bringing in Fangio is the reason for that. Tucker was complete shit and everyone knew it before he came to Chicago. If they can get the proper personnel that would thrive in Fangios defense, then we might be able to become the monsters of the midway again.

Oh no doubt. There is no comparison in the coaching. Tucker was dogshit. Fangio is respected. Big difference.

 

[nebearsfan70]

Oh no doubt. There is no comparison in the coaching. Tucker was dogshit. Fangio is respected. Big difference.

Here, here.