Dear Neil, How to save your job...

[Illinest]

Taking stock of the situation - you are fortunate to have one superstar on a good contract and it is to your credit that you got that deal done. Neil walker is easily the second best position player right now. I'd try to get him under contract too but i wouldn't worry too much if you decide to go to arbitration with him.
You can't let hanrahan go. It's the kind of decision that should happen in the sense of managing finances smartly but it would send a terrible message and create a hole.
Burnett, wandy, and mcdonald are locked into rotation spots right now.
Barmes is signed and played pretty good defense at a critical defensive position. Alvarez finally showed that he deserves a roster spot and there seems to be even more potential there. There are some relievers who deserve to stay and some who deserve to go but i'll leave that to others to decide.

Now the harder decisions.
Starling marte accumulated 1.2 WAR in just a quarter of a season. You should plan to let him win the starting left field job. In right field you've got options but no real answers and it might be prudent to solve that problem decisively. At first base you have some platoon options but you could use some help on the right-hand side.
Mike mckenry had an impressive season behind the plate but he's screaming "flash in the pan" to me. I think he's a good backup catcher but i wouldnt want him as plan A. Tony sanchez seems entirely unready as of yet.
There aren't any other position players knocking on the door. Snider is a great project and gaby sanchez is a solid bench guy. Presley and tabata are still somewhere near being in the picture but none of these four should be considered a part of the starting solution.

So here's the guy for us. Mike Napoli. Here you have a catcher who actually provides value at the plate, a right-handed hitter who can slide over to first and a natural fit for dh when interleague play comes along. Now napoli isnt a great defensive catcher but if he were then hed be way out of our league price-wise. I expect that we can afford to sign him AND make a play for a starter as well.
So here's the other guy for us. Shaun Marcum. Not a top flight starter but a likely upgrade over karstens who seems at this point a long shot to return to the pirates.

So if you sign napoli then you can easily move him to 1B full time later. His bat plays at 1st better than just about anyone we've tried there in the last few years. Napoli provides value now behind the plate and value later at 1B.
Marcum is a decent starter who will lengthen the quality part of the rotation now and play up later if and when cole and/or taillon push him down in the rotation. He's not the only choice but i think we're not in the market for a guy like greinke.

 

[thedddd]

There is talk Tommy Hanson is done in ATL? Not sure why they would let him go but if the do that would be nice option. He might come cheaper than expected after the drop off this year.

On another note Jurrjens in the same boat but not too high on him. Would rather them bring back Karstens.

 

[Illinest]

I don't know if Tommy Hanson is a good choice or not. If the Braves are running away from him then I'd tend to think that they've got a good reason.


I didn't cover finances here but I could and should point out a few things.
First of all attendance was up by over 150,000 people. Now I would go so far as to say that the actual attendance is up even more than that since there's a difference between claimed tickets sold vs. those who actually came and showed up and ordered a beer and a pretzel at stadium prices.
Regardless of that I found a source for average ballpark expenses that suggested 35 dollars per person. The result of this is 5.3 million dollars more made this year than last. The ESPN website lists our payroll at 62 million (up from 53 mill in 2011) BUT we're not actually paying most of Burnett's salary so it's a bit misleading. In real world terms we're paying about 7 million a season versus the listed 16.5 which brings the real total to 53 mill. In other words exactly the same as in 2011.

So the Pirate made 5.3 extra but expenses were flat. Good for them I suppose.

Next you have the impending TV deals. The ESPN deal is expected to add about 15 million per year per team in revenue sharing. The Fox and TBS deals were expected to add at least something similar. I've seen sources claiming a total windfall (if you want to call it that) of 25-30 million in new revenues.

So here's the deal from my perspective. Even if you don't believe (and I DO believe) that the Pirates are pocketing a lot of money every year (no reason they can't spend like the Reds and the Brewers spend imo) then you should at least be able to see that there is going to be at least 30 million in additional revenues available to them and potentially more than that.

Now the TV deals (at least the ESPN deal) don't go into effect until 2014. A technicality. I think that the Nuts can handle a little bit of risk in the meantime.

So I call upon the Pirates to spend at least 20 million on free agents and I think that they could probably spend as much as 35 million by the start of 2014 and still be in the general vicinity of profitable.

 

[thecrow124]

My thinking is this, and while it may be archaic, it is my thinking. You can live without a good hitting SS and without a good hitting catcher, as long as both are above average defensively. Barmes I can live with, and McKenry is more than servicable. I see no reason to worry about upgrading either of those positions. To get true value at those positions the price is just way too much.
There is so much wrong with this team that an upgrade at one position is not going to be a fix. It is going to take a lot more than that. We need at least 3 pitchers to compete with who we have for starting spots in the rotation. We have position players playing out of position, or at least out of where they should be. Most of all we need people that can hit a baseball, I am not overly concerned about what position they play either, there is no one player currently on our roster that is playing their ideal defensive position other than Barmes and McKenry, which goes back to my original point, there is no need to upgrade at either of those positions.
This team is going to be bad next year and probably the year after that as well, and that is the best case scenario. Worst case would be that we really don't have any offensive upgrades in the system until Hansen, Polanco, Garcia, Bell, Herrera, Matheson and Barnes reach the majors, and that is probably 2015-2016 before they get to that point..

 

[Darkstone42]

I don't know if Tommy Hanson is a good choice or not. If the Braves are running away from him then I'd tend to think that they've got a good reason.


I didn't cover finances here but I could and should point out a few things.
First of all attendance was up by over 150,000 people. Now I would go so far as to say that the actual attendance is up even more than that since there's a difference between claimed tickets sold vs. those who actually came and showed up and ordered a beer and a pretzel at stadium prices.
Regardless of that I found a source for average ballpark expenses that suggested 35 dollars per person. The result of this is 5.3 million dollars more made this year than last. The ESPN website lists our payroll at 62 million (up from 53 mill in 2011) BUT we're not actually paying most of Burnett's salary so it's a bit misleading. In real world terms we're paying about 7 million a season versus the listed 16.5 which brings the real total to 53 mill. In other words exactly the same as in 2011.

So the Pirate made 5.3 extra but expenses were flat. Good for them I suppose.

Next you have the impending TV deals. The ESPN deal is expected to add about 15 million per year per team in revenue sharing. The Fox and TBS deals were expected to add at least something similar. I've seen sources claiming a total windfall (if you want to call it that) of 25-30 million in new revenues.

So here's the deal from my perspective. Even if you don't believe (and I DO believe) that the Pirates are pocketing a lot of money every year (no reason they can't spend like the Reds and the Brewers spend imo) then you should at least be able to see that there is going to be at least 30 million in additional revenues available to them and potentially more than that.

Now the TV deals (at least the ESPN deal) don't go into effect until 2014. A technicality. I think that the Nuts can handle a little bit of risk in the meantime.

So I call upon the Pirates to spend at least 20 million on free agents and I think that they could probably spend as much as 35 million by the start of 2014 and still be in the general vicinity of profitable.

Do you know how much they have in due raises to Hanrahan, Walker, etc? I agree with you that all of that extra money should go to signing players, but how much will be taken by guys already on the roster?

 

[thecrow124]

As far as the tv deal goes, it is for the most part a non-issue. Sure we get an extra $25 million or so, but so does everyone else. While the Yankees and Red Sox may not be inclined to spend above the luxury tax, the Dodgers will, ans when it comes down to it who would you rather play for. We will still get outbid for free agents, so most of that money probably will go to allow us to sign our own players. That probably even mean we will sign Hanrahan even if it is a huge mistake.

 

[Illinest]

As far as the tv deal goes, it is for the most part a non-issue. Sure we get an extra $25 million or so, but so does everyone else. While the Yankees and Red Sox may not be inclined to spend above the luxury tax, the Dodgers will, ans when it comes down to it who would you rather play for. We will still get outbid for free agents, so most of that money probably will go to allow us to sign our own players. That probably even mean we will sign Hanrahan even if it is a huge mistake.

I addressed that in another thread. We will still catch up a percentage to the rest of the league.
Example 1: pirates at 50 mill, reds at 75 mill. Add 25 to both budgets.
The pirates effective spending cap was at 66% of cincys, now its at 75%.
Example 2: pirates at 50 mill, brewers at 100 mill. Add 25 to both budgets.
The effective cap was at 50%. Now at 60%.

Take the second example and extrapolate backwards from those percentages. Its like giving us an extra 10 million to spend while milwaukee stays flat.

The extra money helps us more than it helps them.

 

[Illinest]

Do you know how much they have in due raises to Hanrahan, Walker, etc? I agree with you that all of that extra money should go to signing players, but how much will be taken by guys already on the roster?

With bedard karstens and barajas taken off i think that the majority of our pay raises are already taken care of. Just worry about adding roster spots on to what we have and youll be within the ballpark.

 

[sychmd]

it is hard for me to lose a quality closer.
when a team works hard, is winning in the 9th, and loses it, that is very deflating, demoralizing, and sucks hope and life.

it should be the same as giving up 4 in the first, but a late inning loss is more damaging to psyche and building winning attitude than 1st inning losses. look at ibanez HR to the orioles off johnson last nite.

with that being said, and i only watched one game this year on TV, hanrahan barely hit 97 in games. usually 94-96. last year he was regularly 97-99, with occasional 100. he seemed to be a bit wilder and out over the plate, almost never busting anyone inside. was the reduced velocity intentional for some strategic reason or to pace himself, or was he regressing. this would be a significant determiner to what i do with him next year.

barmes improved offensively the last half, and if we can get above ave D, i am ok with him there, but we got to be grooming someone of the mercer, darnaud, harrison, holt, variety or trading for one as no answers internally.

who do we have to trade. cant we package some quantity for a budding AAA catcher or SS. if walker is affordable, keep him and trade holt. if not, let holt play and trade walker, for one of the pieces we need. his value should be high right now.

we need 2 minors guys to have breakout yrs on the mound for us. Cole, McP, Locke, Taillon, Wilson, Vanderhuk, Leroux. 2 of these guys have to succeed for us to have a chance with burnett, mcdonald, and wandy. hopefully morton comes back as well as karstens, but if not, we need a couple arms from inside to step up. other teams have AAA pitchers step up, why can't we. when was the last one that did. i can't remember can you.

i actually like marte in CF with his arm and speed and natural tracking skills and jumps. moving cutch to CF will save wear and tear on him and not expose his arm as much.
to get one of tabata, snider, or presley to play RF would be good. all seem capable fielders. presley had an impressive amount of XBH for the half season of AB.

if jones can continue to show just a slight more improvement, he with occas sanchez who i believe will be a good role player/platoon at 1B.

 

[thecrow124]

I addressed that in another thread. We will still catch up a percentage to the rest of the league.
Example 1: pirates at 50 mill, reds at 75 mill. Add 25 to both budgets.
The pirates effective spending cap was at 66% of cincys, now its at 75%.
Example 2: pirates at 50 mill, brewers at 100 mill. Add 25 to both budgets.
The effective cap was at 50%. Now at 60%.

Take the second example and extrapolate backwards from those percentages. Its like giving us an extra 10 million to spend while milwaukee stays flat.

The extra money helps us more than it helps them.[/QUOTE]

Theoretically and mathmatically yes it helps us more, but in real life and in reality, it helps them more because we can only spend the same extra amount dollars-wise. Regardless of the percentages, in this instance it is a bottomline dollar amount that matters. Both teams can now spend an extra $25 million, so then it comes down to which team the player would rather play for.