Composite ratings for Field of 68

[TrollyMcTroller]

Region...SD(EXP)..Team................Rating..Conf..W-L....SOS... (RNK)
East.....1 (2)....Villanova...........0.9187..BE....32-2...0.6618 (55)
East.....2 (1)....Virginia............0.9249..ACC...29-3...0.6673 (46)
East.....3 (4)....Oklahoma............0.849...B12...22-10..0.7430 (6)
East.....4 (4)....Louisville..........0.8279..ACC...24-8...0.7031 (20)
East.....5 (5)....Northern Iowa.......0.8258..MVC...30-3...0.5316 (117)
East.....6 (8)....Providence..........0.7794..BE....22-11..0.7325 (8)
East.....7 (5)....Michigan St.........0.8203..B10...23-11..0.7026 (21)
East.....8 (9)....North Carolina St...0.7542..ACC...20-13..0.7047 (19)
East.....9 (11)...LSU.................0.7371..SEC...22-10..0.6313 (74)
East.....10 (9)...Georgia.............0.7605..SEC...21-11..0.7096 (15)
East.....11 (10)..Dayton..............0.7468..A10...25-8...0.5904 (85)
East.....11 (11)..Boise St............0.7301..MWC...25-8...0.5221 (126)
East.....12 (14)..Wyoming.............0.6098..MWC...25-9...0.4745 (165)
East.....13 (13)..UC Irvine...........0.6173..BW....21-12..0.5128 (134)
East.....14 (14)..Albany..............0.5568..AE....24-8...0.3786 (296)
East.....15 (15)..Belmont.............0.5272..OVC...22-10..0.4168 (231)
East.....16 (16)..Lafayette...........0.459...PAT...20-12..0.4108 (241)
Midwest..1 (1)....Kentucky............0.9787..SEC...34-0...0.6510 (61)
Midwest..2 (2)....Kansas..............0.863...B12...26-8...0.7946 (1)
Midwest..3 (3)....Notre Dame..........0.8557..ACC...29-5...0.6337 (72)
Midwest..4 (7)....Maryland............0.7803..B10...27-6...0.6754 (43)
Midwest..5 (6)....West Virginia.......0.8018..B12...23-9...0.7081 (17)
Midwest..6 (6)....Butler..............0.8029..BE....22-10..0.7021 (22)
Midwest..7 (4)....Wichita St..........0.8341..MVC...28-4...0.5521 (110)
Midwest..8 (10)...Cincinnati..........0.7385..AMER..22-10..0.5789 (92)
Midwest..9 (10)...Purdue..............0.7437..B10...21-12..0.6819 (36)
Midwest..10 (12)..Indiana.............0.7295..B10...20-13..0.6665 (47)
Midwest..11 (5)...Texas...............0.8032..B12...20-13..0.7255 (12)
Midwest..12 (12)..Buffalo.............0.7103..MAC...23-9...0.5682 (101)
Midwest..13 (12)..Valparaiso..........0.6825..HORZ..28-5...0.4429 (194)
Midwest..14 (14)..Northeastern........0.5755..CAA...23-11..0.4701 (174)
Midwest..15 (13)..New Mexico St.......0.6202..WAC...23-10..0.3775 (298)
Midwest..16 (16)..Manhattan...........0.5136..MAAC..19-13..0.4219 (224)
Midwest..16 (16)..Hampton.............0.3353..MEAC..16-17..0.3192 (343)
South....1 (2)....Duke................0.9045..ACC...29-4...0.6917 (27)
South....2 (2)....Gonzaga.............0.9084..WCC...32-2...0.5859 (86)
South....3 (3)....Iowa St.............0.8495..B12...25-8...0.7449 (5)
South....4 (6)....Georgetown..........0.8006..BE....21-10..0.7342 (7)
South....5 (3)....Utah................0.8553..P12...24-8...0.6432 (65)
South....6 (6)....SMU.................0.7948..AMER..27-6...0.5840 (87)
South....7 (7)....Iowa................0.78....B10...21-11..0.6810 (40)
South....8 (9)....San Diego St........0.7575..MWC...26-8...0.5744 (97)
South....9 (11)...St. John's..........0.7371..BE....21-11..0.6887 (31)
South....10 (8)...Davidson............0.7705..A10...24-7...0.5751 (96)
South....11 (11)..UCLA................0.7337..P12...20-13..0.6887 (31)
South....12 (11)..Stephen F. Austin...0.736...SLND..29-4...0.3994 (260)
South....13 (15)..Eastern Washington..0.5518..BSKY..26-8...0.3996 (259)
South....14 (14)..UAB.................0.5566..CUSA..19-15..0.5083 (138)
South....15 (16)..North Dakota St.....0.5067..SUM...23-9...0.3906 (275)
South....16 (15)..North Florida.......0.5513..ASUN..23-11..0.3622 (314)
South....16 (16)..Robert Morris.......0.4639..NEC...19-14..0.3952 (268)
West.....1 (1)....Wisconsin...........0.932...B10...31-3...0.6812 (39)
West.....2 (1)....Arizona.............0.9258..P12...31-3...0.6345 (71)
West.....3 (4)....Baylor..............0.8352..B12...24-9...0.7281 (10)
West.....4 (3)....North Carolina......0.8504..ACC...24-11..0.7635 (2)
West.....5 (7)....Arkansas............0.7913..SEC...26-8...0.6602 (57)
West.....6 (7)....Xavier..............0.7845..BE....21-13..0.7201 (13)
West.....7 (8)....VCU.................0.7773..A10...26-9...0.6633 (53)
West.....8 (11)...Oregon..............0.7323..P12...25-9...0.6598 (58)
West.....9 (9)....Oklahoma St.........0.747...B12...18-13..0.7321 (9)
West.....10 (5)...Ohio St.............0.8194..B10...23-10..0.6483 (64)
West.....11 (8)...BYU.................0.7698..WCC...25-9...0.6065 (81)
West.....11 (10)..Mississippi.........0.7393..SEC...20-12..0.6685 (45)
West.....12 (13)..Wofford.............0.6276..SC....28-6...0.4241 (221)
West.....13 (13)..Harvard.............0.6517..IVY...22-7...0.4912 (154)
West.....14 (12)..Georgia St..........0.6654..SB....24-9...0.4477 (192)
West.....15 (16)..Texas Southern......0.4342..SWAC..22-12..0.3525 (324)
West.....16 (15)..Coastal Carolina....0.5412..BSTH..24-9...0.3503 (327)

 

[ericd7633]

Interesting numbers. South looks like to be the easiest bracket.

 

[TxHeat]

Very impressive numbers for the Big 12.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Interesting numbers. South looks like to be the easiest bracket.

Yeah, and the funny thing is before the brackets came out everyone assumed that the West would be the easiest, and it's the hardest by a wide margin.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Very impressive numbers for the Big 12.

Big 12 has been the best conference top-to-bottom, for the entire season. Texas is tremendously underseeded by the composite numbers. Wouldn't surprise me if that ends up being the trendies "upset" pick of the first round. The ratings have UT as a tiny favorite. A friend of mine's son actually plays for Butler and he's having trouble getting a hotel room in Pittsburgh. Evidently all of the Texas fans have already booked everything, so I expect them to have a considerable crowd advantage too.

 

[TxHeat]

Big 12 has been the best conference top-to-bottom, for the entire season. Texas is tremendously underseeded by the composite numbers. Wouldn't surprise me if that ends up being the trendies "upset" pick of the first round. The ratings have UT as a tiny favorite. A friend of mine's son actually plays for Butler and he's having trouble getting a hotel room in Pittsburgh. Evidently all of the Texas fans have already booked everything, so I expect them to have a considerable crowd advantage too.

I hope so. How Texas lost their last game did leave a bad taste in my mouth. As long as Texas wins it next year though. My youngest daughter will a senior there next year. My son went to Kansas and they won it his senior year ('08). My oldest daughter went to UConn and they won it last year (her senior year). There's a family tradition that she needs to have happen. Maybe it will be football instead for Texas in 2016.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

I hope so. How Texas lost their last game did leave a bad taste in my mouth. As long as Texas wins it next year though. My youngest daughter will a senior there next year. My son went to Kansas and they won it his senior year ('08). My oldest daughter went to UConn and they won it last year (her senior year). There's a family tradition that she needs to have happen. Maybe it will be football instead for Texas in 2016.

Charlie Strong has an uphill battle there, but he's a good coach, and if he can continue to recruit well, I think you have as good a chance as anyone.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Is that last column, the one labeled "RNK" the "composite rating" in the sense that it is composed from the four columns to its left? Seems curious that it lists a value of 61 for KY. I assume that reflects KY's relatively low value for SOS=.651.

Seems to me that the column labeled "Rating" might be the most meaningful metric in that table.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Is that last column, the one labeled "RNK" the "composite rating" in the sense that it is composed from the four columns to its left? Seems curious that it lists a value of 61 for KY. I assume that reflects KY's relatively low value for SOS=.651.

Seems to me that the column labeled "Rating" might be the most meaningful metric in that table.

Yes, the rating column is the composite ranking of KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI. That's what everything else is based on. The last column (or two depending on how you look at it) is the composite Strength of Schedule and it's overall ranking is in parenthesis (out of all 351 teams)

In the previous daily thread I included (and sorted by) the rank of the rating column, but since the brackets have been released I thought that seeding was more appropriate to use instead of overall ranking.

I also forgot to mention in the original post, Next to the seed, I also listed the "expected seed" based on the composite rating so you can see the disparity in some teams seeding.

 

[Sgt Brutus]

Expected 5 got 10. Hopefully that lights a fire in us, im looking at trying to get a flight to the game thursday and saturday so Im hoping they play well

 

[douggie]

There sure are a lot of teams with 9+ losses. I can't say I remember there ever being that many before.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

There sure are a lot of teams with 9+ losses. I can't say I remember there ever being that many before.

This is why so much of the tournament talk annoys me. Almost anything can be countered by "look how crappy the bubble teams are."

Let's add more teams! Look how crappy the bubble teams are.
I can't believe so and so made it. Look how crappy the bubble teams are.
I wonder if we'll see a 16 knock off a... No. Look how crappy the bubble teams are.

But yes... lot's of mediocrity in the tourney this year.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Expected 5 got 10. Hopefully that lights a fire in us, im looking at trying to get a flight to the game thursday and saturday so Im hoping they play well

Yeah, the buckeyes were the 2nd worst underseeded team (based on the metrics) behind Texas. Their resume is somewhat lackluster so I don't think they were terribly mis-seeded based on that, but I think they should perform better than their seed would lead some people to believe.

Sucks that they have to play AZ in the 2nd round if the get past VCU, but if Russell is playing at the top of his game, they could conceivably knock of AZ (but I doubt it)

 

[Sgt Brutus]

Yeah, the buckeyes were the 2nd worst underseeded team (based on the metrics) behind Texas. Their resume is somewhat lackluster so I don't think they were terribly mis-seeded based on that, but I think they should perform better than their seed would lead some people to believe.

Sucks that they have to play AZ in the 2nd round if the get past VCU, but if Russell is playing at the top of his game, they could conceivably knock of AZ (but I doubt it)

Watching them play this last month though I am not mad because they have looked really shitty and Russell hasn't been playing his best ball. Why should it change now?

The AZ game will be exciting (if we beat VCU) but I don't think we have the team to beat them. Besides Russell no one has stepped up.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Watching them play this last month though I am not mad because they have looked really shitty and Russell hasn't been playing his best ball. Why should it change now?

The AZ game will be exciting (if we beat VCU) but I don't think we have the team to beat them. Besides Russell no one has stepped up.

Yeah, upsetting AZ would be a longshot for sure, but looking back at the Derrick Williams game against Duke a few years ago, one transcendent player can get it done in the tournament. (Usually followed by a horrible let-down game) I think Russell has the potential.

 

[gordontrue]

Pure gold, Trolly, good work.

 

[gordontrue]

1st Tier (Teams > 0.95)
Kentucky

2nd Tier (Teams > 0.90)
Wisconsin, Arizona, Virginia, Villanova, Gonzaga, Duke

3rd Tier (Teams > 0.85)
Kansas, Notre Dame, Utah, North Carolina

4th Tier (Teams > 0.80)
Oklahoma, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Mich St, West Virginia, Wichita St, Butler, Texas, Iowa St, Georgetown, Baylor, Ohio St

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

In case anyone is wondering how the Composite Index is fairing in the bracket so far...

In the first round the index correctly predicted 25 of the 32 winners.

In the 2nd round the index correctly predicted 11 of the 16 bracket winners and 13 of 16 actual winners.

If you're wondering what the difference is, an example is in the South. The bracket had Iowa St beating SMU in the 2nd round. It obviously did not predict the correct winner in the bracket, but given the actual matchup of UCLA and UAB, it correctly picked UCLA. (The other difference was Xavier vs Baylor/GA St.)

The composite bracket still has 5 EE teams, 3 FF teams and KY winning over VA in the CC game.