Commanders News thread

[deanpet21]

Why is the defense playing better Dean ?

I couldnt tell you but they are forcing Turnovers. That i know for sure.

 

[skinsdad62]

I couldnt tell you but they are forcing Turnovers. That i know for sure.

the defense started playing well on wince's watch

 

[kbso83432]

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

What do the advanced stats say about Heinicke vs Wentz after 10 weeks?

Neither is likely to be a starter next year, but Heinicke is producing significantly better results than Wentz despite *worse* performances in individual grading, pass blocking and run blocking.

Let’s dig in

1-Using EPA/play from rbsdm,com (min 100 plays)

Heinicke is 24th (0.025) 147 plays
Wentz is 35th (-0.072) 245 plays

The difference is 0.097 EPA which is the difference between ranking 12th (like Tom Brady) and 24th.

Heinicke has produced better results than Wentz (both bad).

2- What about evaluating the process? Using PFF grades:

Wentz ranks 34th (63.1)
Heinicke ranks 51st (51.0)

The difference is 12.1 pts which is the difference between ranking 12th (like Justin Herbert) and 34th.

Wentz’s process has been better than Heinicke’s (both bad).

3- What about the offensive line? Does that explain Heinicke’s better results?

No. Using PFF grades, the pass blocking and run blocking actually got worse starting week 7.

Week 1-6 Week 7-10
PBLK 64.5 51.7
RBLK 60.2 57.9
4- Let’s wrap it up: EPA/play is more stable year-to-year than PFF grade so let’s give a little more weight to Heinicke’s results.

What we have is a backup QB that is playing like a back up but putting up better numbers than the starter despite a worse supporting cast.
Closing: I’m fine with Heinicke playing the rest of the year because he is putting up better results and I’ve seen enough from Wentz to know he wouldn’t do better in this situation. I also want the team to draft a rookie in 2023, perhaps re-signing Heinicke as a bridge. Thanks

 

[Breed]

just stop. This defense has been forcing turnovers and playing great while TH has been starting. Admit it.

8 turnovers in the last 4 games. 3 turnovers from the first 6 games.

Some might opine that the change at QB is partly responsible because Taylor inspires his teammates in a way that Wince does not.

 

[Breed]

That's a lotta negotiations right there. The Skins would be wise to start a 1, probably even 2 right now.

 

[Breed]

What do the advanced stats say about Heinicke vs Wentz after 10 weeks?

Neither is likely to be a starter next year, but Heinicke is producing significantly better results than Wentz despite *worse* performances in individual grading, pass blocking and run blocking.

Let’s dig in

1-Using EPA/play from rbsdm,com (min 100 plays)

Heinicke is 24th (0.025) 147 plays
Wentz is 35th (-0.072) 245 plays

The difference is 0.097 EPA which is the difference between ranking 12th (like Tom Brady) and 24th.

Heinicke has produced better results than Wentz (both bad).

2- What about evaluating the process? Using PFF grades:

Wentz ranks 34th (63.1)
Heinicke ranks 51st (51.0)

The difference is 12.1 pts which is the difference between ranking 12th (like Justin Herbert) and 34th.

Wentz’s process has been better than Heinicke’s (both bad).

3- What about the offensive line? Does that explain Heinicke’s better results?

No. Using PFF grades, the pass blocking and run blocking actually got worse starting week 7.

Week 1-6 Week 7-10
PBLK 64.5 51.7
RBLK 60.2 57.9
4- Let’s wrap it up: EPA/play is more stable year-to-year than PFF grade so let’s give a little more weight to Heinicke’s results.

What we have is a backup QB that is playing like a back up but putting up better numbers than the starter despite a worse supporting cast.
Closing: I’m fine with Heinicke playing the rest of the year because he is putting up better results and I’ve seen enough from Wentz to know he wouldn’t do better in this situation. I also want the team to draft a rookie in 2023, perhaps re-signing Heinicke as a bridge. Thanks

Those are some interesting numbers, but how does Taylor come out bad far as produced results with a 3-1 record?

Far as head to head.................
Carson has averaged 248.1 passing yards per game to Taylor's 210 passing yards per game.
Carson's TD % is slightly better 4.3% to Taylor's 4.1%,
Carson has a noticeable lower INT% than Taylor. 2.6% to 3.3%.
Carson has 7 turnovers, 6 INTs/1 lost fum or 1.1 per game. To Taylor's 5 turnovers, 4 INTs/1 lost fum or 1.25 per game
Their comp% is pretty much identical 62.1!% for Carson, 62.0% for Taylor.
Carson has a 6.4 yards per pass att. Taylor has a 6.9 yards per pass att. - many believe this stat to be the most significant of all QB stats.
Carson has been sacked 23 times in 6 games or 3.8 times a game. To the 9 times Taylor has been sacked over 4 games or 2.25 times a game.

 

[Breed]

That's a nice play for sure and Ridgeway has seriously softened the losses of Settle n Ironman. Still was a huge bonehead play by him as it allowed the Vikings to take the clock from 1 min 52 sec to 16 sec n made the Skins use their final timeout. Not saying the Skins do some things with 1 min n 52 sec on the clock n a timeout, but they damn sure wasn't doing anything with 16 sec on the clock n no timeouts.

 

[deanpet21]

Some might opine that the change at QB is partly responsible because Taylor inspires his teammates in a way that Wince does not.

you could have a point but im just posted the turnovers TH has been getting vs Wentz. Turnovers help the QB, and team win every time.

 

[skinsdad62]

That's a nice play for sure and Ridgeway has seriously softened the losses of Settle n Ironman. Still was a huge bonehead play by him as it allowed the Vikings to take the clock from 1 min 52 sec to 16 sec n made the Skins use their final timeout. Not saying the Skins do some things with 1 min n 52 sec on the clock n a timeout, but they damn sure wasn't doing anything with 16 sec on the clock n no timeouts.

He and a healthy Mathis could keep that DT rotation. Going with payne and Allen

 

[skinsdad62]

career could be over

 

[skinsdad62]

i was in his ass all off season , he made me eat crow

 

[kbso83432]

i was in his ass all off season , he made me eat crow

I called him out about a week before JDR did. He responded. He needed to be called out at the time. Got me over here eating crow as well. I'd rather win than be right.

 

[Sportster 72]

Common mistake made by fans. Calling someone bust before they have time to develop. Some guys do it in their first year and some take a year or two.

 

[Breed]

you could have a point but im just posted the turnovers TH has been getting vs Wentz. Turnovers help the QB, and team win every time.

The defense coming up with turnovers is outstanding, here's to hoping it continues. The defense at least aspects of it have been pretty decent to good since they first played Philly/ It does seem all of it, run defense, pass defense, pass rush, better tackling is all coming together now.

 

[skinsdad62]

not good

 

[countryroads316]

I think it might be time for McKissic to call it a career with that neck injury

 

[skinsdad62]