Burrow is done

[cincygrad]

This is going to be a bit long, so sorry in advanced...ramblings of someone who has been beating the OL/run game drum for a few years now....

The appendix thing can happen to anyone...

The knee and the wrist and calf...they happen, but it's also fair to point out just how beaten he's been through his NFL career (outside of the calf, the other 2 injuries were in season). But, even in off-season...the body can only heal so much. Burrow has been beaten, battered, and Bruised in his NFL career.

Burrow's sacks by year:

2020 - 32 in 10 games, before his knee injury. At that pace, would have had 51 and led the NFL that year.
2021 - 51. Led the NFL
2022 - 41. 5th in the NFL
2023 - 24 Through 10 games. Once pace for his lowest sack total of the year at 40 before the injury.

In 2 full years and 2 partials...or just over 3 full years...Burrow has taken 148 sacks. Not including playoffs, where IIRC Burrow was sacked 9 times in a game vs Tenn...

You might think that this year is a bit higher because of his calf issue in weeks 1-4 (or 5 or whenever he officially got healthy)...but he actually had less sacks in his 1st 5 games than his last 5 games....

Burrow is going to always have a few more sacks than some QB's for at least 1 big reason....he's been top 5 in passing attempts the past few years...even this year, he's 3rd, and he's missed a week plus a half of game. The Bengals throw the ball in relation to their run game probably more than any other team in the NFL, or would be up there...top 3 I'd guess. More on this point below.

Lack of OL early, and still not hitting on the right OL mix right now has been a major issue. Volson is one of the 5 lowest rated Guards in all of the NFL. Cappa has, surprisingly, had some struggles this year. Brown has been OK, not great, but not terrible. Overall, if they had at least a league average LG, they probably would have saved about 5 sacks so far this year. It's been better in general but I think there has been one big factor, and that is a lack of any kind of run game...and that's not all on Mixon's productivity as a runner.

Lack of a run game is killing it though. No offense the past few years has faced a light box as often as Mixon and the Bengals...and yet, before injury, the Bengals were at a near 75/25 split between Burrow Attempts and Mixon runs. When you lack creativity in the run game, and when you don't use the run to begin with...teams are going to stack up the pass rush. Why would any defense worry about the run? When you consider that at least a quarter of Mixon's runs are 3rd and 1's, 4th and 1's, or goal line type runs (in other words, high probability run situations)...between the 20's....there's zero threat of the Bengals just running the ball right at you for 3-4-5 plays in their drive. Why would any defense worry about it?

TLDR; So, injury prone? No, I don't think so...but his body is taking a massive beating and eventually it just won't heal up the way it needs in order to stay healthy...and I think that has to be a major concern for Burrow and the Bengals.

Burrow has started 51 games since his ACL recovery. That isn't nothing... Particularly for a guy that gets hit a lot. Has he been banged up? Yeah.... Of course. But, lots of QBs that stand in the pocket like he does are going to get knicked up. Look at a guy like Josh Allen - He's avoided major injury but he is always dealing with something. Matt Stafford has made an entire career of it. Big Ben played behind great offensive lines but constantly dealt with injuries - some minor, some that made him miss time, and some that he completely made up. LOL

 

[Cincyfan78]

Burrow has started 51 games since his ACL recovery. That isn't nothing... Particularly for a guy that gets hit a lot. Has he been banged up? Yeah.... Of course. But, lots of QBs that stand in the pocket like he does are going to get knicked up. Look at a guy like Josh Allen - He's avoided major injury but he is always dealing with something. Matt Stafford has made an entire career of it. Big Ben played behind great offensive lines but constantly dealt with injuries - some minor, some that made him miss time, and some that he completely made up. LOL

Absolutely...Burrow stands in and takes some hits he likely could avoid. 100%. The Bengals are also going to throw it a ton. No surprise that leads to more hits/sacks. Those are valid points, which I did mention - the Bengals will throw it. Going to get hit.

But, it's also fair to point out that the OL still hasn't really been fixed in 4 seasons, and one of the best ways to slow down any pass-rush is the threat of a run game. Bengals don't need a RB to go for 25 carries a game...but averaging more than 12 would be nice. Especially when at least 4 of those 12 are in short yardage/goal line, or other high probability run plays.

I think, on a 'normal' day, anywhere between 16-19 rushes would be a solid target. Now, game situations and other factors will always come into play. I realize that not every game you can get X amount of runs. However, I think getting Mixon into that 16-19 range can go a long way to helping slow down the expected rush.

 

[jbuck]

all of a sudden we need everything. lol. f'in game

 

[redseat]

probably not. but he needs to learn to throw the ball out of bounds when there's nothing there. the OL can't hold back AFC North DL/LB forever. Our OL was supposed to be much better this year, but it didn't work out.

Yeah isn't he like the most sacked QB. His OL isn't helping him one bit

 

[Cincyfan78]

Yeah isn't he like the most sacked QB. His OL isn't helping him one bit

2020 - 32 in 10 games, before his knee injury. At that pace, would have had 51 and led the NFL that year.
2021 - 51. Led the NFL
2022 - 41. 5th in the NFL
2023 - 24 Through 10 games. Once pace for his lowest sack total of the year at 40 before the injury.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

To add:

They've got to find a way to upgrade the pass-rush outside of Hendrickson/Huber...so far, that has been a lot of swings and misses...Ossai really took a step back this year. Sample is what he is...a backup's backup. Nothing wrong with that, but if he's getting a lot of snaps...

Murphy was taken with an expected red-shirt year. He's had several plays where he's been really close...but not getting home yet.

Will likely need 1 more DB, if not 2. Hilton has been solid, but isn't getting younger. Awuzie isn't getting re-signed, and has struggled this year coming back from the knee injury, and Scott was a rare F/A whiff.

One of the other things that has hurt this offense this year is the play of Boyd...Love the guy, but his best days are behind him. That's not just because of the drops, which sucked, but he's struggled to get open and his athleticism that allowed him to thrive in the slot over the years is slowly fading. Should the Bengals move on from Higgins, and use a 1st or 2nd round pick on a solid WR...and sign a F/A slot guy...this team has a chance to add some more athleticism at the WR spot outside of Chase.

Supposedly, the kid from Purdue was supposed to be Boyd's slot replacement, Charlie Jones. I almost typed Charlie Brown....hahahaha

 

[DanBengalfan]

Supposedly, the kid from Purdue was supposed to be Boyd's slot replacement, Charlie Jones. I almost typed Charlie Brown....hahahaha

yea, I think he'll be good if he can stop getting injured. he made some nice special teams plays.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Supposedly, the kid from Purdue was supposed to be Boyd's slot replacement, Charlie Jones. I almost typed Charlie Brown....hahahaha

I think he'll be fine. He missed 5+ weeks with the thumb injury, and now he has Browning at QB...which is not going to help him look any better.

There was a clip yesterday, on one of the drives, I think it was Iosavis, was streaking down the seam wide open...easy pitch and catch TD. Browning saw it, and waited...and then was sacked. He's a backup for a reason, but the biggest issue I see with Browning is that he doesn't trust anything. He waits for a guy to come open, and then wants to throw the ball. It's too late. Even backup QB's have to be able to know when to throw a football...this shouldn't be a new concept for any QB in the NFL...

AJ has to be wondering how long he has to wait for them to switch over, because the reality is...if Taylor were "serious" about trying to win without Burrow, it wouldn't be Browning out there at QB....

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think he'll be fine. He missed 5+ weeks with the thumb injury, and now he has Browning at QB...which is not going to help him look any better.

There was a clip yesterday, on one of the drives, I think it was Iosavis, was streaking down the seam wide open...easy pitch and catch TD. Browning saw it, and waited...and then was sacked. He's a backup for a reason, but the biggest issue I see with Browning is that he doesn't trust anything. He waits for a guy to come open, and then wants to throw the ball. It's too late. Even backup QB's have to be able to know when to throw a football...this shouldn't be a new concept for any QB in the NFL...

AJ has to be wondering how long he has to wait for them to switch over, because the reality is...if Taylor were "serious" about trying to win without Burrow, it wouldn't be Browning out there at QB....

But on that same token. You need to see what you have, and Browning has the high school and college stats to say he has something. I think the arm talent is there. It is going to come down to processing between the ears. Guys get better with experience. We need to see what we have with Browning, and the season is basically lost. It is about the SB with this team and Burrow now. If you don't have a shot at the SB, who cares about the playoffs? Rebuild, see what you have in the younger guys, tank without tanking.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Bumping for this...no surprise here....

 

[cincygrad]

Bumping for this...no surprise here....

Shocking. It won't stop Florio for trying to make it a story.