Bubble Watch heading into Selection Sunday

[ericd7633]

This is how I see things as of now heading into the last week of conference tournament action:

ACC:
LOCKS: Louisville, North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, UVA, Notre Dame, Miami, Va. Tech.
BUBBLE: Syracuse, Wake Forest, Ga. Tech

BIG EAST:
LOCKS: Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette
BUBBLE: Xavier

B1G:
LOCKS: Purdue, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, Michigan
BUBBLE: Iowa, Illinois

BIG 12:
LOCKS: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
BUBBLE: Kansas State

PAC 12:
LOCKS: Oregon, Arizona, UCLA
BUBBLE: USC, California

SEC:
LOCKS: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas
BUBBLE: Vanderbilt

OTHER:
LOCKS: Dayton, VCU, Cincy, SMU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
BUBBLE: Rhode Island, Middle Tennessee State, UT-Arlington, Illinois State.

I think any team not listed above needs to win their conference tournament to receive a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Auto Bids: FGCU, Winthop, UNC-Wilmington, Iona, Wichita State, Jacksonville St, East Tennessee State.

LOCKS = 39
AUTO BIDS(So Far) = 7

Auto Qualifiers yet to be won: Am. East, AAC, A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, B1G, Big West, C-USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MEAC, Mtn. West, NEC, Pac 12, Patriot, SEC, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC, WCC (25)

Assuming a LOCK wins their respective conference tournament, there are 13 teams(Illinois St's season is finished) playing for 6 spots left in the field. The odds of a team not locked in winning one of the P6 conferences is extremely rare. Where it could possibly happen would be the the A-10 or AAC. Out of the "mid major" bubble teams, I would feel the safest about MTSU getting a bid, should they slip up in the C-USA tournament. But obviously, nothing is guaranteed for them.

I will try to update this as the week continues and post my final bracketology on Selection Sunday.

 

[Hitman Hart]

Its really hard for me to take Lunardi seriously right now, seeing as how he feels that Syracuse is in right now because they got in last year with a similar RPI. Syracuse's resume is different than what it was last year. Lunardi is just looking at their RPI and not the entire resume.

 

[jontaejones]

Its really hard for me to take Lunardi seriously right now, seeing as how he feels that Syracuse is in right now because they got in last year with a similar RPI. Syracuse's resume is different than what it was last year. Lunardi is just looking at their RPI and not the entire resume.

Cuse has better wins. I think both should make it.

I think Syracuse, Wake, Xavier, USC, Vanderbilt, and Iowa are the teams that deserve to make it. It was tough to pick a 6th too.

 

[Hitman Hart]

Cuse has better wins. I think both should make it.

I think Syracuse, Wake, Xavier, USC, Vanderbilt, and Iowa are the teams that deserve to make it. It was tough to pick a 6th too.

? I wasn't comparing Syracuse to anyone. I was comparing them to their team from last year. I do think Cuse should make it, but them having a bye at this point is puzzling.

 

[ericd7633]

? I wasn't comparing Syracuse to anyone. I was comparing them to their team from last year. I do think Cuse should make it, but them having a bye at this point is puzzling.

At this moment in time with their being hypothetically 6 spots available. I'd have USC and Vandy avoiding Dayton. With Wake, Cuse, Xavier and Rhode Island as my last 4 in.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Syracuse is a bad road team, though. They need to win a couple of ACC Tourney games to lock it down

 

[Hitman Hart]

Syracuse is a bad road team, though. They need to win a couple of ACC Tourney games to lock it down

Exactly. 2 wins away from the Carrier Dome is not an ideal look on a resume. Beating a Top 50 team in Miami on a neutral floor would do wonders for them.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Exactly. 2 wins away from the Carrier Dome is not an ideal look on a resume. Beating a Top 50 team in Miami on a neutral floor would do wonders for them.

They might just have a slight advantage in the Tourney, being somewhat closer to home than the rest of the league.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I'm rooting for chaos in the remaining conference tourneys, since my team is dookie.

Anyone but Dayton/VCU in the A10

Anyone but Cincy/SMU in the AAC

Anybody but MTSU in the CUSA (make the committee make a decision there)

Give the bubble a coronary.

Also go bums of the Power Conferences!

 

[osubuckeye89]

Also. You don't think Nevada has any shot at a at-large bid if they dont win the MWC Tourney?

Their RPI is 34, 7 wins vs the RPI 100.

Their overall record also looks a lot better than some of the other options.

Gonna be a weird year for the selection committee.

 

[ericd7633]

Exactly. 2 wins away from the Carrier Dome is not an ideal look on a resume. Beating a Top 50 team in Miami on a neutral floor would do wonders for them.

That's why I'm not quite as high on them as Lunardi is. From a historical standpoint they will have a lot going against them. With a loss against Miami they will have 14 losses, which would tie them for the most losses ever for an at large team. They would have an RPI in the high 70's, low 80's, which would be the WORST RPI to ever make the field. And they also have a non conf. SOS in the low 200's. All those would signify that they shouldn't make it. Along with 3 bad losses.

 

[ericd7633]

Also. You don't think Nevada has any shot at a at-large bid if they dont win the MWC Tourney?

Their RPI is 34, 7 wins vs the RPI 100.

Their overall record also looks a lot better than some of the other options.

Gonna be a weird year for the selection committee.

I would put their at large chances at about zero percent. They are basically Akron from a year ago who didn't get in. I know every year is different, but the committee tends to leave out teams from non P5 leagues despite them having a top 40 RPI.

 

[Hitman Hart]

Wake playing like shit right now and is failing the #eyetest

 

[ericd7633]

Wake playing like shit right now and is failing the #eyetest

Everyone on the bubble at one point or another has failed the eyetest. There isn't a massive difference between Rutgers and BC and Illinois just lost to Rutgers last week.

Edit - Should have pointed out that Wake has yet to do that this year(fail the eyetest)

 

[rmilia1]

Also. You don't think Nevada has any shot at a at-large bid if they dont win the MWC Tourney?

Their RPI is 34, 7 wins vs the RPI 100.

Their overall record also looks a lot better than some of the other options.

Gonna be a weird year for the selection committee.

Nevada has more top 100 wins than USC lol

 

[ericd7633]

Nevada has more top 100 wins than USC lol

True, but SC has two huge wins over SMU and UCLA. I'm not saying USC is lock or anything, but I'd give them the edge over Nevada for sure.

 

[rmilia1]

True, but SC has two huge wins over SMU and UCLA. I'm not saying USC is lock or anything, but I'd give them the edge over Nevada for sure.

I honestly wouldn't take either but yes USC would get a slight edge for me as well

 

[Hitman Hart]

Everyone on the bubble at one point or another has failed the eyetest. There isn't a massive difference between Rutgers and BC and Illinois just lost to Rutgers last week.

Edit - Should have pointed out that Wake has yet to do that this year(fail the eyetest)

Yeah, I was being somewhat sarcastic. Going to end the season with 0 bad losses.

 

[Mike A. S.]

The two bubble teams I'm most curious about are Xavier and Georgia. What are those teams' chances and likely scenarios? I think that Xavier simply needs to avoid losing to DePaul and they're in. For Georgia I would say they need to win 2-3 SEC Tourney games. But since their second game would be against Kentucky then they should "only" need to beat Tennessee & Kentucky to seal their bid...right?

 

[ericd7633]

I'm watching this Case/U game and I see on the bottom line that lunardi has moved Vandy into lock status. Found that interesting since they haven't played since Saturday.