Broncos and AFC West Game by Game Predictions

[iknowftbll]

It's that time of year! The schedule has been out for a few weeks now and the draft has added some clarity on how teams intend to address their weaknesses. I realize plenty of others have already taken a stab at game by game predictions and others will wait until July/August for these, but this is the time of year I like to do it. Just because now is when we need something to talk about.

This year I am taking it up a level. On top of the Broncos game by game predictions, I'll be doing the entire AFC West. Beyond that I'll do a W-L prediction for the entire league, including playoff predictions (which I never do).

For now let's talk about the Denver Broncos. We'll start with some assumptions. These predictions assume relatively good health (this applies to predictions for all the AFC West teams and the league standings as well). Now we know that's unrealistic, but since it's impossible to predict who is going to have an injury plagued season, or what key players will miss what kind of time, I will build these predictions as a reasonable baseline. Secondly, I am working from the assumption that Mark Sanchez will be the Broncos starter in 2016 and complete the season. Another major assumption is the Broncos are going to stress being a run heavy offense. Very run heavy.

Now here is where the assumptions start to give way into general predictions. The Broncos will be better on offense this year. The O-line will be a work in progress again due to so much turnover in personnel. However, the overall talent level is upgraded and combined with a more athletic QB the overall unit will be notably improved. The improvements on offense will mask the setbacks on defense. Losing Trevathon and Jackson does not make the defense better, but we have some good talent waiting in the wings and as TJ Ward noted, it being the second year in the system will lead to a better unit. While some of the more advanced analytics may suggest the unit is not as good, I believe the Broncos defense will be a top-3 unit at worst.

Also, I'm sticking with my initial predictions for the AFC West:

Broncos: 12-4
Raiders: 10-6
Chiefs: 8-8
Chargers: 7-9

So let's get into the schedule, shall we?

Week 1: Vs Panthers: Win, 24-17. There is no question the Panthers are going to get up for this one but so are the Broncos and so will the home crowd. The Panthers are eager to prove that showing in the Super Bowl was a fluke. I'll pause here to say this: What if it was a fluke? Does it matter? Can you prove anything in a regular season game after losing the biggest game of the season? I'd say no. Then again, that narrative is irrelevant because the Broncos will be eager to step out and prove what happened in January and February wasn't a fluke. Broncos 1-0.

Week 2: Vs Colts: Win, 27-10. Back in 2013 Jim Irsay invited criticism on himself for his passive aggressive critique on Manning's years with the Colts. Words to the effect of, "Star wars numbers are great but one title is disappointing. We're building a team differently now." Aside from being a major knock on the man that put his otherwise bottom-tier franchise on the football map, Irsay hasn't delivered. The Colts are the Andrew Luck show just like they were the Peyton Manning show a few years ago. Luck is a great guy and an insanely talented young man. But he can't do it all himself. Broncos 2-0.

PS: I believe the Colts fortunes against the Broncos change in the Post-Manning years. That team got up for him and he seemed to play uncharacteristically bad ball against his old club. That won't be an issue for Sanchez or Lynch.

Week 3: @ Bengals: Loss, 20-23. The Broncos and Bengals played a great contest late in the season last year. The Broncos 20-17 win literally altered the playoff landscape and went a long way toward them becoming eventual champs. But a roadie early in the season is a tall order. The Bengals are a good enough team to beat anyone any given week (as long as it's not in the playoffs!) and edge out the Broncos in a game that many will say will carry heavy playoff implications late in the season. Broncos 2-1.

Week 4: @ Buccaneers: Win, 28-17. The Bucs may be a talented up and coming team, but I seriously doubt they make major strides in 2016. Winston is still a young QB who tries to extend plays by making something happen himself. This is a good way to get yourself killed against a defense like the Broncos. Broncos 3-1.

Week 5: Vs Falcons: Win, 30-10. After consecutive road games, the Broncos return home ready to put on a show. The Falcons have a talented roster but have had troubles putting it together and keeping it together. Last season doesn't matter this year, but a team that starts out 5-0 and finishes 8-8 can probably be exploited. The bottom line is this: The Broncos are hands down the better team and it will show in this one. Broncos 4-1.

Week 6: @ Chargers: Win, 27-13. Short week for the Broncos against an AFC West rival. The travel aside, this will be almost like a home game. While I expect the Chargers to be a much improved team this year, the Broncos are still far better. The Chargers still lack the defense and may struggle to run the ball. While Rivers is arguably now the best QB in the AFC West he will have to face a this defense teeing off. And that line in front of Rivers is very much a work in progress still. Broncos 5-1.

Week 7: Vs Texans: Win, 34-13. The Broncos defensive players circled this one on their calendar the day Osweiler said "The Texans give me the best chance to win." I don't expect the Broncos offense to put up 34 points on that Texans defense. What I expect is the defense to add a score and put the offense in position to score on a short field a time or two. And that's not a stretch: the Texans offense looks to be a work in progress. And in this one they just don't have the stuff to hang with this Broncos team. Broncos 6-1.

Week 8: Vs Chargers: Loss, 17-21. As I said, the Chargers are a better team than last year and playing them twice in such short sequence is going to make it hard for the better team to sweep. Even with the Broncos playing at home the Chargers are a capable and feisty enough team to pull the upset, especially if the Broncos are riding a bit of a letdown following what will likely be an over-hyped game the week prior. Broncos 6-2.

Week 9: @ Raiders: Loss, 21-31. Cue the "start Lynch" crowd. If they haven't already hit full swing. The Raiders are an up and comer with high hopes and they are going to get up for this one. What this game and the one preceding it will remind us is that despite being a solid team and defending champs, the Broncos are also a work in progress transitioning fully into Kubiak's offense. These games will also remind us the AFC West is legit in 2016. Broncos 6-3.

Week 10: @ Saints: Win, 31-20. Two AFC West losses in a row and now the second of two consecutive road games in opposite directions will have the prognosticators predicting the Broncos doom. It's not that the Saints are a great team. But even in a bad year they will be hard to beat in the dome. The Broncos have a bye in front of them and even without Manning they have enough leadership on both sides of the ball to ensure they don't go into the bye on a 3 game skid. Broncos 7-3.

 

[iknowftbll]

Week 11: Bye. The schedule has a lot of interesting nuances, with only two consecutive home games twice in the season and three instances of consecutive road games. Still there are a lot of advantages built into this schedule, from a 10 day break between week 1 and two, another 10 day break in front of the Texans game and the late bye week. The team will be in great shape and well positioned to make a surge toward the finish line.

Week 12: Vs Chiefs: Win, 31-13. Coming out of the bye and with last year's game in Denver fresh on their minds, the Broncos jump all over their rivals. I think the Chiefs defense, while it will be good, will have taken a major step backward without Houston (lost to injury) and their best ingredient in the secondary now the Raiders best ingredient in the secondary. They've made some improvements on offense but I don't know that it'll completely offset the losses on defense. At least not this week. Broncos 8-3.

Week 13: @ Jaguars: Win, 24-16. I think the Jaguars are getting close to being a good team, but on defense they have a long way to go. On offense they may just be the best unit in the AFC South. With that said, Bortles does sometimes throw picks in bunches so if the NFZ gets one early, look out! Meanwhile I believe Malik Jackson has a big game. I am glad he got his money, and I do question that he'll be able to match his production from Denver in Jacksonville. But he'll get up for this game for sure. And the Broncos will win anyway. Broncos 9-3.

Week 14: @ Titans: Win, 23-7. The offense will struggle in this one against an inferior opponent but defense travels well. Thankfully this will be the last of the consecutive road games. This will be that late season game in which fatigue shows but serves as a gut check. The Titans play it close but the Broncos pull away late. Broncos 10-3.

Week 15: Vs Patriots: Win, 28-20. The Patriots loaded up on offense this year and may well have the best unit in the game. But they may be susceptible on defense. They did bring in Pot Roast, but he has struggled to recapture his 2013 form in the seasons since. If the Broncos can move it on the ground, the Patriots will be in trouble in this one. And if the Patriots can't move it on the ground they'll really be in trouble. If this game were being played in their house they'd win. But this one is in Denver (and don't look now but the only time the Patriots have beat the Broncos in Denver was when Danny Kanell came off the couch in 2003 and of course Tebow in 2011). Broncos 11-3.

Week 16: @ Chiefs: Loss, 23-27. While I think the Broncos are the better team, and by this point in the season that will be abundantly clear, playing in Kansas City in December is always tough. And this one is Christmas night! The Chiefs will probably be good enough to still be on the fringes of the playoff bubble at this point in the season and will definitely be looking to 1) keep their season alive and 2) spoil playoff seeding for the Broncos. The Broncos loss will set up some serious drama going into the final week of the season. Broncos 11-4.

Week 17: Vs Raiders: Win, 26-13. Remember my predicted standings above: the Raiders finish 10-6 so they'll come into this one 10-5 with a win and tie breakers over the 11-4 Broncos. In other words, this one is a "winner takes the west" game for both teams. I expect a dog fight early and the Broncos pulling away late. The running game and defense prove too much for a much improved but still work in progress Raiders team. Broncos 12-4.

So that's how the Broncos schedule will go down from where I sit right now. If you've done the math that's 414 PPG for and 271 PPG against. Statistically the defense will be similar to last year, if even slightly less effective. But scoring will be down due to the offense being better. As for the offense, look for Sanchez to hit about 3,650 passing yards, but set a career high in completion percentage. His TD-INT will be somewhere around 23-13, numbers that would represent a huge improvement over Manning and Osweiler's combined 19-23 in 2015. DT and Sanders will both have over 1,000 yards again, but DT will have another career low. The catch is this: It'll still be a better season for him than last year because he will rebound and reign in that drop issue. I'll trade a couple hundred yards for some clutch plays throughout the season every time. In the ground game I am going to make a bold prediction here: the Broncos go 55% run plays and Anderson and Booker both reach 1,000 rushing yards. More importantly the run game with the fullbacks and tight ends on the roster is going to be punishing. The problems on 3rd and 1 or at the goal line will be a distant memory.

And the defense...well the defense is going to make this year a lot of fun again.

And that's a look at my picks for the Broncos. The Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers are coming up next!

 

[iknowftbll]

My predictions for the Raiders:

Week 1: @ Saints: Loss, 0-1
Week 2: vs Falcons: Win, 1-1
Week 3: @ Titans: Win, 2-1
Week 4: @ Ravens: Loss, 2-2
Week 5: Vs Chargers: Win, 3-2
Week 6: Vs Chiefs: Win, 4-2
Week 7: @ Jaguars: Win, 5-2
Week 8: @ Buccaneers: Loss, 5-3
Week 9: Vs Broncos: Win, 6-3
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: Vs Texans: Win, 7-3
Week 12: Vs Panthers: Loss, 7-4
Week 13: Vs Bills: Win, 8-4
Week 14: @ Chiefs: Loss, 8-5
Week 15: @ Chargers: Win, 9-5
Week 16: Vs Colts: Win, 10-5
Week 17: @ Broncos: Loss, 10-6

General thoughts: I've said repeatedly that while in the long run I think JDR will limit the Raiders, they will definitely have their moments under his tenure. He'll be the "John Fox" of the Raiders: the right guy at the time they hired him. He'll take them from the dumpster fire they used to be to a respectable NFL organization on the field. But JDR will not make the Raiders a perennial contender, even as Reggie Mac continues to stock the roster with talented players. 2016 will be a banner year for a team that has sucked since getting stomped in the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, but if it's not the high water mark under JDR it'll be pretty close.

 

[randymon]

Well I do think your final standings at least in order of finish, is pretty good. I think SD is capable of getting a top 5 pick in draft and I believe all these pro Chiefs predictions are going to bite a lot of these Yahoo's in the ass. Denver will be looking over their shoulder at Raiders and only them. KC is getting way too much love again and I'll say right now,even though they will split with Denver,they finish 3rd also but at .500 or worse. SD didn't do anything to help Rivers out. He should retire then un- retire and get away from that future Cleveland-ish franchise.

 

[iknowftbll]

My predictions for the Chiefs:

Week 1: Vs Chargers: Win, 1-0
Week 2: @ Texans: Loss, 1-1
Week 3: Vs Jets: Win, 2-1
Week 4: @ Steelers: Loss, 2-2
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: @ Raiders: Loss, 2-3
Week 7: Vs Saints: Win, 3-3
Week 8: @ Colts: Loss, 3-4
Week 9: Vs Jaguars: Win, 4-4
Week 10: @ Panthers: Loss, 4-5
Week 11: Vs Buccaneers: Win, 5-5
Week 12: @ Broncos: Loss, 5-6
Week 13: @ Falcons: Loss, 5-7
Week 14: Vs Raiders: Win, 6-7
Week 15: Vs Titans: Win, 7-7
Week 16: Vs Broncos: Win, 8-7
Week 17: @ Chargers: Loss, 8-8

General thoughts: I won't repeat my comparison to the 2013 Falcons, and I have no hard evidence to suggest my hunch is valid. But I'll stick to it in large part because you can count on Andy Reid to make a coaching decision or two along the way that is going to undermine his team's ability to get it done. He'll cost the Chiefs at least two wins this year. I'm looking specifically at the week 13 game with the Falcons and the finale with the Chargers. While the schedule is obviously similar to the Broncos, the sequence also does not benefit the Chiefs the way the Broncos benefits them. Only at the end of the season, when it's nearly too late, do they get consecutive home games. I believe the order of their games is going to make it challenging for them to get any momentum going.

 

[randymon]

My predictions for the Chiefs:

Week 1: Vs Chargers: Win, 1-0
Week 2: @ Texans: Loss, 1-1
Week 3: Vs Jets: Win, 2-1
Week 4: @ Steelers: Loss, 2-2
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: @ Raiders: Loss, 2-3
Week 7: Vs Saints: Win, 3-3
Week 8: @ Colts: Loss, 3-4
Week 9: Vs Jaguars: Win, 4-4
Week 10: @ Panthers: Loss, 4-5
Week 11: Vs Buccaneers: Win, 5-5
Week 12: @ Broncos: Loss, 5-6
Week 13: @ Falcons: Loss, 5-7
Week 14: Vs Raiders: Win, 6-7
Week 15: Vs Titans: Win, 7-7
Week 16: Vs Broncos: Win, 8-7
Week 17: @ Chargers: Loss, 8-8

General thoughts: I won't repeat my comparison to the 2013 Falcons, and I have no hard evidence to suggest my hunch is valid. But I'll stick to it in large part because you can count on Andy Reid to make a coaching decision or two along the way that is going to undermine his team's ability to get it done. He'll cost the Chiefs at least two wins this year. I'm looking specifically at the week 13 game with the Falcons and the finale with the Chargers. While the schedule is obviously similar to the Broncos, the sequence also does not benefit the Chiefs the way the Broncos benefits them. Only at the end of the season, when it's nearly too late, do they get consecutive home games. I believe the order of their games is going to make it challenging for them to get any momentum going.

Can't argue with that at all. I will take Jax in a spoiler alert in KC though and put those douche bag Chiefs at 7-9

 

[iknowftbll]

My predictions for the Chargers:

Week 1: @ Chiefs: Loss, 0-1
Week 2: Vs Jaguars: Win, 1-1
Week 3: @ Colts: Loss, 1-2
Week 4: Vs Saints: Win, 2-2
Week 5: @ Raiders: Loss, 2-3
Week 6: Vs Broncos: Loss, 2-4
Week 7: @ Falcons: Loss, 2-5
Week 8: @ Broncos: Win, 3-5
Week 9: Vs Titans: Win, 4-5
Week 10: Vs Dolphins: Loss, 4-6
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: @ Texans: Loss, 4-7
Week 13: Vs Buccaneers: Win, 5-7
Week 14: @ Panthers: Loss, 5-8
Week 15: Vs Raiders: Loss, 5-9
Week 16: @ Browns: Win, 6-9
Week 17: Vs Chiefs: Win, 7-9

General thoughts: The Chargers will be the best out of the 8 last place teams, a dubious honor. In any other division they may be a 10-6 team. In the AFC West it's a dog fight and the Chargers are still a step behind everyone else in the division. 2016 for them will be a major transitory season. If they build on it they'll be in the mix for a playoff spot in 2017. But that'll be little consolation: these guys want to win and they're not going to allow the fact they play in a very tough division to be an excuse. With the threat of a move to Los Angeles no longer a constant threat, the Chargers should be able to use this year as a launch point. I've mentioned their draft being very good and will be coming of age after a couple seasons. By then Rivers will be in the twilight of his playing career. Can the Chargers work for a Super Bowl in that tight a window? Doubtful.

 

[iknowftbll]

Can't argue with that at all. I will take Jax in a spoiler alert in KC though and put those douche bag Chiefs at 7-9

That certainly would not bother me at all! If the Chiefs go 7-9 you may start seeing Reid's seat get a little hot. And I consider that a good thing for our side. While I consider Reid a limiting factor for the Chiefs, he has brought that team a level of stability the Chiefs haven't seen in nearly 20 years. Their 11-5, 9-7, 11-5 run of the past three years is the first time since a run from 1989-1997 in which they've had winning seasons in at least 3 straight years. They've also won their first playoff game in over 20 years.

Let's say the Chiefs go 9-7 and miss the playoffs. Or even 8-8. I think that would be a huge disappointment but I don't think Reid would be getting an ultimatum. But 7-9? Sure the difference between 8-8 and 7-9 is one W/L but it's a huge mental jump to go from 11-5 and winning a playoff game to a sub .500 team. I believe Reid would be on the hot seat going into 2017.

And if Reid loses his job in Kansas City, the Chiefs will have faded back into the background and will take their chances with the uncertainty of a new regime. That worked for the Broncos with Kubiak. To a great extent, it worked for them with Fox. But for every Fox and Kubiak there is a McDaniels out there ready to take a mediocre team into utter futility. And it's not unlike the Chiefs to go that route.

 

[randymon]

I think this year if KC doesn't win div or go deep in playoffs,Reid's tenure is done and so will be Mr. Dink and Dunk Smith.

 

[Malibu]

To early for this. I'm still celebrating the Broncos Super Bowl victory and Manning retiring. Peace.

 

[iknowftbll]

To early for this. I'm still celebrating the Broncos Super Bowl victory and Manning retiring. Peace.

Sure, there are a lot of variables that will make doing something like this in May almost impossible to do with any degree of accuracy. But it's May...Still a long way to go before the season starts and we have to have something to talk about!

 

[SpringStein]

Thanks, IKF, that was a lot of time and thought and I appreciate you doing it.

(But the Bills will win in Oakland!

 

[cdumler7]

Thanks, IKF, that was a lot of time and thought and I appreciate you doing it.

(But the Bills will win in Oakland!

I hope this is true! Honestly it always seems like the team that gets the most hype before the season seems to fall flat on their face. They always talk about how much a team was able to upgrade but that also means they had a ton of turnover on the team in general which is tough to get everybody on the same page. I don't think the Raiders are going to be as good as everybody keeps thinking. I do think they have a very good starting 22 but the biggest issue for them this year just like last year is depth. A starter goes down (which at some point multiple starters will go down) they don't have the depth to really counter losing such a great player.

I think 10-6 can win this division. Not that I don't think a team in the AFC West can't do better but just like you have above here IKF in the Broncos going I think 3-3 in the division. So that means only one out of division loss. This will be like the AFC North of a few years back where playing against such great teams hurts the overall record in the end. Part of the Patriots success can be attributed to playing a pretty weak divisional schedule helping to pump up their record getting them the #1 seed.

Anyway thanks for doing this IKF. This is always one of my favorite posts of the year. Love looking back on this and just seeing how we actually do compare to our thoughts on the team and really the rest of the division. If I remember right last year I thought the Chargers would be much better than they were. As you said though injuries cannot be something you figure in and well they had a ton on the OL.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Well I do think your final standings at least in order of finish, is pretty good. I think SD is capable of getting a top 5 pick in draft and I believe all these pro Chiefs predictions are going to bite a lot of these Yahoo's in the ass. Denver will be looking over their shoulder at Raiders and only them. KC is getting way too much love again and I'll say right now,even though they will split with Denver,they finish 3rd also but at .500 or worse. SD didn't do anything to help Rivers out. He should retire then un- retire and get away from that future Cleveland-ish franchise.

Rivers would still belong to the Chargers. One reason Barry Sanders never "came back".

 

[58crash]

Well I do think your final standings at least in order of finish, is pretty good. I think SD is capable of getting a top 5 pick in draft and I believe all these pro Chiefs predictions are going to bite a lot of these Yahoo's in the ass. Denver will be looking over their shoulder at Raiders and only them. KC is getting way too much love again and I'll say right now,even though they will split with Denver,they finish 3rd also but at .500 or worse. SD didn't do anything to help Rivers out. He should retire then un- retire and get away from that future Cleveland-ish franchise.

Eehh all he needs to do is ask for a trade he will get it if he asks ..

 

[iknowftbll]

I think 10-6 can win this division. Not that I don't think a team in the AFC West can't do better but just like you have above here IKF in the Broncos going I think 3-3 in the division. So that means only one out of division loss. This will be like the AFC North of a few years back where playing against such great teams hurts the overall record in the end. Part of the Patriots success can be attributed to playing a pretty weak divisional schedule helping to pump up their record getting them the #1 seed.

That's exactly right. The schedule is generally favorable in that teams like the Panthers and Patriots are home games for the Broncos. Convert those to road games and I'd be willing to say we have more than one out of divisions loss this year. But 3-3 in the divisions speaks to the level of respect I generally have for AFC West division play. The Broncos have been bitch slapping this divisions silly ever since Elway arrived. They're an astounding 24-6 (25-6 counting the playoff win over the Chargers in 2013) and that's in a division that has twice had an 11-5 second place team, twice a 9-7 third place team, and once sent three teams to the playoffs. So they've been bitch slapping a pretty stout division. But these teams are probably tired of the Broncos taking their lunch money. Rightly or wrongly the Chiefs and Raiders believe the division is theirs for the taking. And the Chargers are just a feisty team that can catch you with your pants down if you're not careful. So while the Broncos will win the division once again, they are going to get all they can handle from the rivals. But that's better than the Raiders in 2010: Swept the division and still missed the playoffs!

 

[Gatorchip]

My predictions for the Chargers:

Week 1: @ Chiefs: Loss, 0-1
Week 2: Vs Jaguars: Win, 1-1
Week 3: @ Colts: Loss, 1-2
Week 4: Vs Saints: Win, 2-2
Week 5: @ Raiders: Loss, 2-3
Week 6: Vs Broncos: Loss, 2-4
Week 7: @ Falcons: Loss, 2-5
Week 8: @ Broncos: Win, 3-5
Week 9: Vs Titans: Win, 4-5
Week 10: Vs Dolphins: Loss, 4-6
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: @ Texans: Loss, 4-7
Week 13: Vs Buccaneers: Win, 5-7
Week 14: @ Panthers: Loss, 5-8
Week 15: Vs Raiders: Loss, 5-9
Week 16: @ Browns: Win, 6-9
Week 17: Vs Chiefs: Win, 7-9

General thoughts: The Chargers will be the best out of the 8 last place teams, a dubious honor. In any other division they may be a 10-6 team. In the AFC West it's a dog fight and the Chargers are still a step behind everyone else in the division. 2016 for them will be a major transitory season. If they build on it they'll be in the mix for a playoff spot in 2017. But that'll be little consolation: these guys want to win and they're not going to allow the fact they play in a very tough division to be an excuse. With the threat of a move to Los Angeles no longer a constant threat, the Chargers should be able to use this year as a launch point. I've mentioned their draft being very good and will be coming of age after a couple seasons. By then Rivers will be in the twilight of his playing career. Can the Chargers work for a Super Bowl in that tight a window? Doubtful.

You've got us winning every home game and losing every road game? I think KC gets things going earlier this coming season than last. I also think Denver won't drop off much. It's going to be a battle for the division!

 

[iknowftbll]

You've got us winning every home game and losing every road game? I think KC gets things going earlier this coming season than last. I also think Denver won't drop off much. It's going to be a battle for the division!

No, I have them beating the Broncos in Denver actually. The Browns in Cleveland too.

 

[Gatorchip]

No, I have them beating the Broncos in Denver actually. The Browns in Cleveland too.

Shoot I quoted the wrong post. I meant the chiefs. Too late to edit.

 

[iknowftbll]

Shoot I quoted the wrong post. I meant the chiefs. Too late to edit.

Ah...


I noticed that pattern emerge as well and almost changed a few of the picks because it's rare to go 8-0 at home and 0-8 on the road. If I was going to change anything it would have been swapping the W-L with the Chargers: I think they split and honestly won't be surprised if the Chiefs lose that game. But that would put the Chiefs at 4-8 going into the last stretch of the season and I honestly don't think they're that bad. Ultimately it comes down to this: the sequence of this schedule, the arrangement of home/away dates simply is going to be tough on the Chiefs to establish any rhythm or momentum. As noted, that 3 game home stretch at the end of the season is the only stretch in which the Chiefs have consecutive home games. A schedule like that, against solid opponents like the Steelers and Panthers (and even the Falcons in ATL will be a tough out) takes its toll.