Bengals vs whover thread, with PFF matchup analysis....

[bengaldoug]

I am going to post PFF numbers for all the Bengals' matchups this season, dividing them into positional matchup analysis. I will rely on last season's numbers to start, with a little infusion of numbers from preseason to help. As the season goes on I believe the present numbers become more relevant. The numbers will be adjusted to the player at each position with the most snaps, to make for an equal comparison. No, that's not a perfect measure, but imo it's as good as we can do. Everyone is invited to participate. What we'll be trying to do is see where the Bengals have advantages and disadvantages in the week's upcoming game. After the game is played we can see how the situations played out. I expect to learn much from this exercise, and hope others will, too.

 

[icehole3]

Dont you have to have a membership to get access to all their Intel?

 

[cincygrad]

I am going to post PFF numbers for all the Bengals' matchups this season, dividing them into positional matchup analysis. I will rely on last season's numbers to start, with a little infusion of numbers from preseason to help. As the season goes on I believe the present numbers become more relevant. The numbers will be adjusted to the player at each position with the most snaps, to make for an equal comparison. No, that's not a perfect measure, but imo it's as good as we can do. Everyone is invited to participate. What we'll be trying to do is see where the Bengals have advantages and disadvantages in the week's upcoming game. After the game is played we can see how the situations played out. I expect to learn much from this exercise, and hope others will, too.

 

[bengaldoug]

Dont you have to have a membership to get access to all their Intel?

Yes. It's not expensive, though, and the numbers seem to provide insights as to strengths and weaknesses of players, and units.

 

[bengaldoug]

For sure......

 

[bengaldoug]

Game one --- Bengals at Bears

Bengals cumulative numbers from 2012

offense 42.6 (rank 16 of 32)
defense 104.9 (rank 3 of 32)
special teams 56.1 (rank 5 of 32)

Bears cumulative numbers from 2012

offense -35.8 (rank 30 of 32)
defense 80.7 (tied 4 of 32)
special teams 40.4 (rank 12 of 32)

 

[Tubbs1518]

Game one --- Bengals at Bears

Bengals cumulative numbers from 2012

offense 42.6 (rank 16 of 32)
defense 104.9 (rank 3 of 32)
special teams 56.1 (rank 5 of 32)

Bears cumulative numbers from 2012

offense -35.8 (rank 30 of 32)
defense 80.7 (tied 4 of 32)
special teams 40.4 (rank 12 of 32)

Is the 24 points we ranked ahead of them in defense a lot? The Bears defense depends on turnovers. If we protect the ball and don't turn it over on them we should be able to score some points. Eifert and Gresham should eat Jon Bostic their rookie MLB alive in the passing game. So should Gio.

 

[bengaldoug]

Bengals personnel changes -- offense

subractions
1) Dennis Roland -- tackle (-0.4 in 107 snaps)
2) Bruce Gradkowski -- backup QB (-1.1/31 snaps)
3) John Conner -- fullback (-1.2/24 snaps)
4) Brian Leonard -- rb (-2.8/211 snaps)
5) Armon Binns -- wr (-7.0/309 snaps)
6) Jeff Faine -- center -- (-13.0/468 snaps)

Additions
1) Alex Smith --TE-- (+2.0/98 snaps) from Cleveland
2) Dane Sanzenbacher --WR--(-1.3/67 snaps) from Chicago
3) Mike Pollak --C/G-- from Carolina (injured only played in one game last year, but +3.3/601 snaps in 2011 for Indianapolis.
4) Tyler Eifert (rookie TE)
5) Giovanni Bernard (rookie RB)
6) Rex Burkhead (rookie RB)
7) Tanner Hawkinson (rookie G/T)
8) Josh Johnson -- QB -- (+0.8/94 snaps in 2011 for TBay)

 

[bengaldoug]

Is the 24 points we ranked ahead of them in defense a lot?

The Bengals are about as far behind the top Team (SF-127.3) as they are ahead of the Bears. The Bears and Texans are tied for fourth and about 12 points ahead of the next team. Seventeen teams have positive cumulative ratings, and fifteen negative. So I would say the Bears had a very strong defense last year.

The Bears defense depends on turnovers. If we protect the ball and don't turn it over on them we should be able to score some points. Eifert and Gresham should eat Jon Bostic their rookie MLB alive in the passing game. So should Gio.

This point will be looked at in later posts, but I agree with your premise. Also Dalton's most successful zone according to PFF stats was over the middle in the zone between the mlb and safety. He may indeed be able to exploit that matchup.

 

[bengaldoug]

Is the 24 points we ranked ahead of them in defense a lot? The Bears defense depends on turnovers. If we protect the ball and don't turn it over on them we should be able to score some points. Eifert and Gresham should eat Jon Bostic their rookie MLB alive in the passing game. So should Gio.

Just checked the Bears season opening depth chart and it appears the veteran DJ Williams has beaten Bostic out for the MLB job, at least for now. He came over from Denver, where he had less than 150 snaps last year but started in 2011, with a pass coverage rating of +4.2 that year. He was also +3.3 in coverage last year in just 62 snaps last year. The only thing I have on Bostic is 34 preseason snaps in coverage with a +2.1 rating.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think the Bengals are about a TD better than the Bears, but with home field advantage, that should fall to about a 4 point spread.

Bengals 27 to 23 is my guess.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Who dey motha truckin' nation 12983123985412345123984710928347019283471092384710298347234
Da Bears 0

you heard it here first BOIYYYYY!!!!!

.......

actually, lets go with 27-24 Bengals, Marv lacks the killer instinct.

 

[bengaldoug]

Bears Personnel Changes - Defense

Subtractions
1. Israel Idonije --DE/DT--(+17.8/726 snaps in 2012) -- the highest grading dlineman last year
2. Amobi Okoye --DT--(-1.6/234 snaps)
3. Nick Roach --SLB/MLB--(-2.5/710 snaps) to Oakland
4. Brian Urlacher --MLB--(-11.3/726 snaps) retired

Additions
1. James Anderson --SLB--(from Carolina -8.4/528 snaps)
2. DJ Williams --MLB--(from Denver +3.5/131 snaps)
3. Jon Bostic --MLB--(R)

 

[kramer1]

I think the Bears win by a good 10 points.

What's the early line on this game from Vegas, Doug?

 

[bengaldoug]

I think the Bears win by a good 10 points.

What's the early line on this game from Vegas, Doug?

Bears -3, total 41.5 at 5 Dimes as of this moment.

 

[kramer1]

Bears -3, total 41.5 at 5 Dimes as of this moment.

I'll take the Bears and the over.

 

[bengaldoug]

When the Bengals run, their rating was 2.0 last year, good for 21st in the league. The Bears run stoppers were also 21st, at -4.4. The Bengals added Giovanni Bernard (+3.4 in preseason games) to improve the rushing attack, but the oline is still the same one who had a combined -13.7 rating as run blockers, and that was with Andre Smith's +10.6 rating. One improvement is not starting the season with Jeff Faine (-11.0 run blocking) at center. Kyle Cook(+2.0 in 2011,+8.1 in 2010) is healthy again, and his best asset to the team was always in run blocking. He graded out +1.6 in preseason games in 36 snaps run blocking. The Bears lost their best run defender, starting LDE Israel Idonije(+7.5 in run defense) in free agency. Corey Wooton (+0.6/233 snaps in run d) moves in as the starter there. They also replaced Brian Urlacher(-13.6) at MLB with DJ Williams (-6.4 in 2011, the last season he started at Denver) and replaced Nick Roach (-1.7) at SLB with James Anderson from Carolina (-6.7).
It would appear the best chance for success for the Bengals offense will be running to the right behind Andre Smith against Idonije's replacement.

Edge: Bengals

 

[NCChiFan]

It would appear the best chance for success for the Bengals offense will be running to the right behind Andre Smith against Idonije's replacement.

Edge: Bengals

Interesting, because that's right at our Pro Bowl DT and perennial probowler LB Briggs aline.

 

[bengaldoug]

Interesting, because that's right at our Pro Bowl DT and perennial probowler LB Briggs aline.

I thought Briggs played the weak side. Behind Andre will be strong side in most cases, at Anderson.

 

[bengaldoug]

Interesting, because that's right at our Pro Bowl DT and perennial probowler LB Briggs aline.

You'll like what I'm posting much better when I take a look at the matchup between our quarterback and your secondary.