Am I the only one slightly concerned by this?

[StanMarsh51]

2013:
Cano 81R + 107RBI - 27 HR = 161 Runs Produced
Phillips 80R + 103RBI - 18 HR = 165 Runs Produced

Again, old school.

Then again, Phillips had almost 100 more runners on base for him this season than Cano did (492 to 398)....

Phillips had a ton of RBI opportunities, and had the 3rd most runners on base for him in baseball (only to Fielder and Bruce)....not everyone gets to bat behind 2 OBP machines (Choo and Votto) like he did this past season.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Since he was 30, Chase Utley's BA has dropped 30 points.

Chase Utley from 26-30 BA: .301
Chase Utley from 31-34 BA: .270

He has had injuries but his play even when he is healthy has dropped off. Hope you're right. Some players age better than others, which makes it difficult to determine how he will perform during the duration of his contract. Hopefully he ages like Jeff Kent and not Chase Utley.

In all fairness, Utley's style of play may have factored into that decline...Utley's always been known as the type of player who goes all out with no disregard for his body (look what that did for Grady Sizemore for example), and I think that may have played a factor in his decline...even when he's "healthy," he still might have nagging injuries for all we know which could affect his play.

Pedroia's style of play is in the same boat as Utley, so he could possibly see the same fate with breaking down quicker than someone like Cano.

 

[NWinAZ]

But as I mentioned in my other post, Phillips was anemic without any runners on. The Mariners struggled to get guys on base. Take those two together and you don't have a very good combination.

They were not paying him to get on. They were paying him to drive in. That is hwy they moved him in the lineup and I believe he took a different approach to hitting because of his lineup spot.

 

[NWinAZ]

Then again, Phillips had almost 100 more runners on base for him this season than Cano did (492 to 398)....

Phillips had a ton of RBI opportunities, and had the 3rd most runners on base for him in baseball (only to Fielder and Bruce)....not everyone gets to bat behind 2 OBP machines (Choo and Votto) like he did this past season.

True, but you still have to drive them in or be in position to be driven in. Again, I am old school and you will never convince otherwise that the most important stat for a hitter is runs produced. Runs is where the game is won or lost. Some players have value as guys who get runners over, I understand that, but those guys do it because they are not great at driving them in in most cases. Sometimes its situational, but most times just inability.

For curiosity sake, what was the runs produced percentage for each with runners in scoring position?

 

[NWinAZ]

Plus getting him on base helps the guys behind him. If Seager, Smoak, Hart etc. start getting pitches they can hit it benefits the entire team.

I really don't know that is true. He isn't a base stealer so I doubt they will see an increased number of fastballs especially when breaking balls give them so much trouble. I think it just gives us a better chance of hitting into double-plays. Now if he were Ellsbury who turns a walk into a double or triple, then I think it helps the hitters behind him get more RBI's even if it is on an out.

 

[StanMarsh51]

True, but you still have to drive them in or be in position to be driven in. Again, I am old school and you will never convince otherwise that the most important stat for a hitter is runs produced. Runs is where the game is won or lost. Some players have value as guys who get runners over, I understand that, but those guys do it because they are not great at driving them in in most cases. Sometimes its situational, but most times just inability.

For curiosity sake, what was the runs produced percentage for each with runners in scoring position?

Cano hit .357 with a 1.026 OPS with RISP, while Phillips hit .338 with a .873 OPS.
Cano also hit .412 with a 1.205 OPS when RISP w/2 outs, while Phillips hit .271/.767

Who would you rather have in a run scoring opportunity with those RISP stats above?

And the 'runs produced' stat is deeply flawed, as you and I both know that a player can be a contributor to a run scoring without getting a run or an RBI, as shown with the following example:

Player A gets a single
Player B doubles, moving player A to 3rd
Player C gets a sac fly, scoring player A

If we use 'runs produced' as you do, we fail to recognize the contribution of player B in helping that run score.

 

[da55bums]

great post, great number assessment.. Cano going down while Morales gets away and goes off, eh maybe.

 

[cezero]

yes, the m's overpaid for cano

if they hadn't, he wouldn't have even considered coming here

he's going to be making $20+ million off the M's when he's 41

NO teams are making these kinds of commitments to position players anymore unless they are DESPERATE and AWFUl like the m's.

it's the price our FO has to pay for fielding utter shit for a decade.