AFCCG Pregame Discussions

[BigKen]

I was thinking about both teams and what to expect next Sunday in Kansas City.

Mostly I've been thinking about the Patriots and what has changed since they beat the Chiefs 43-40 back at the start of the season.

One major difference is that the Patriots now have a defense. They didn't have a defense in the first game and give up 4 TD passes and ton of yards to Kareem Hunt. Hunt has been replaced by Williams, but Williams is not the downfield pass threat that Hunt was.

The Charger games showed that the Patriots defense is rounding into what we were hoping for throughout the season. They can stop the run and makeWRs work for the catches they get.

The offense has Sony Michel who they didn't have in the first meeting.

I think that the Patriots are going to make it extremely difficult for the Chiefs to score like they did last time. The Chiefs still have a big problem stopping the run and that could be a benefit for the Pats.

In my opinion, the team with ballat the end of the game wins it.

 

[Southieinnc]

I was thinking about both teams and what to expect next Sunday in Kansas City.

Mostly I've been thinking about the Patriots and what has changed since they beat the Chiefs 43-40 back at the start of the season.

One major difference is that the Patriots now have a defense. They didn't have a defense in the first game and give up 4 TD passes and ton of yards to Kareem Hunt. Hunt has been replaced by Williams, but Williams is not the downfield pass threat that Hunt was.

The Charger games showed that the Patriots defense is rounding into what we were hoping for throughout the season. They can stop the run and makeWRs work for the catches they get.

The offense has Sony Michel who they didn't have in the first meeting.

I think that the Patriots are going to make it extremely difficult for the Chiefs to score like they did last time. The Chiefs still have a big problem stopping the run and that could be a benefit for the Pats.

In my opinion, the team with ballat the end of the game wins it.

Sony Michel had 106 yards in the 1st meeting. Team had 173
KC had 94 yards total - 15 yards of rest of team besides Hunt.

Phillip Dorsett did not play in 1st KC game - he was 4-4 this SD game with 2 big 3rd down plays, one a TD
Edelman was not reliable in the 1st KC game. Caught 9 passes against SD for 151 yards!

NE has averaged 182 yards per game in last 3 games and while they are 5th in rushing for the year, our 183 would be higher than the top rushing teams average of 160 yds. / game.

KC is 27th in the NFL against the run. - feeling it?????

 

[YankeeRebel]

At this time I am not willing to make a prediction. But I agree the defense has improved a lot, yesterday was Blitzageddon the Matty P bend don't break shit is flushed. Mahommes is a lot more mobile not sure how they will approach him I do feel they will force him to get rid of the ball quickly. The Pat will IMO run a lot or a lot of quick screens.

Ahhh Fuck It

Pats 38
Chiefs 31

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Sony Michel had 106 yards in the 1st meeting. Team had 173
KC had 94 yards total - 15 yards of rest of team besides Hunt.

Phillip Dorsett did not play in 1st KC game - he was 4-4 this SD game with 2 big 3rd down plays, one a TD
Edelman was not reliable in the 1st KC game. Caught 9 passes against SD for 151 yards!

NE has averaged 182 yards per game in last 3 games and while they are 5th in rushing for the year, our 183 would be higher than the top rushing teams average of 160 yds. / game.

KC is 27th in the NFL against the run. - feeling it?????

Just like Mikey. "I like it"

 

[Old Lion]

Pats have not been good on the road. They can not get behind in this one and try to play catchup. They need the same formula as last week. Start fast and then make the opponent try to force things.

 

[BigKen]

The divisional round matchup in Kansas City featured some pretty awesome weather, with a bunch of snow being dumped on Arrowhead Field ahead of the NFL playoff matchup between the Colts and Chiefs. We might be in store for more of the same this coming weekend when the Chiefs host the Patriots during the franchise's first-ever AFC Championship Game at home, which you can stream on CBS All Access.

According to the Associated Press, there's an "arctic blast" that could settle in over Kansas City on Sunday night, which would make the Patriots-Chiefs game one of the coldest games in modern NFL history. From the report, via the National Weather Service:

The National Weather Service is projecting an arctic blast to settle over Kansas City for the Chiefs' game against the New England Patriots. Temperatures at kickoff could range from 10 degrees to well below zero, potentially making it the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history.

It's currently Monday afternoon, so we are talking a full seven-day forecast. Variance abounds! There is a lot that goes into a winter storm of this magnitude rolling into Kansas City, but it's at least worth monitoring because of how cold things could get.

Per the report, the temperatures for the game could range between 10 degrees and "well below" zero.

Based on the Pro-Football-Reference database, that would absolutely qualify as one of the coldest games in Arrowhead Stadium history. The Chiefs have hosted six games at Arrowhead where the temperature was below 10 degrees, and only five since the merger.

Again, a lot needs to happen to break that record of "0.5 degrees" -- that's frigging freezing, man.

Who would it benefit? It's hard to say. The Patriots have a lot more experience in the playoffs with really cold weather, having now moved their ATS record to 6-6 in games below 30 degrees. Inherently, Tom Brady just has more experience in the playoffs [insert any situation, really] than anyone else, because he has started almost 40 games in the postseason. It's just rare to find someone with more experience doing anything in the playoffs than Brady.

But Mahomes certainly got to experience the cold on Saturday in the Chiefs' win over the Colts, a pretty easy victory for Kansas City at home in ugly weather. The Chiefs have the benefit of having a heated field as well, so that should at least help things for both the Chiefs and Patriots.

We'll see how the storm progresses. But as of now, we could see the Patriots and Chiefs battling it out in very frigid and wintry conditions once the AFC Championship Game rolls around.

 

[sharkymcwrath]

If weather does indeed become a factor I think it plays to our advantage. I like our run game better than theirs. With Develin as the battering ram making way for Michel and Gronk laying vicious blocks I think the Pats can win the ground game.

 

[nefansince75]

If weather does indeed become a factor I think it plays to our advantage. I like our run game better than theirs. With Develin as the battering ram making way for Michel and Gronk laying vicious blocks I think the Pats can win the ground game.

They'll need to connect on some pass plays out of that formation to keep the chiefs guessing.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Both teams are cold weather teams so the only diff might be one teams ability to run the ball and that edge I do give to the Pats. Its going to be bitterly cold and a dog fight my biggest worries for both teams are injuries moving forward.

 

[BigKen]

I said this before the Charger game and I'll say it before this one. The Patriots had two really bad "Shit" games this season against the Lions and the Titans. The Chiefs have not had an egg laying game where the team just totally shit the bed. As I said before, the playoffs are absolute worst time to foul your BVDs. Rarely does a team go through an entire season without having at least one game where the wheels come off the cart.

I'm not predicting that it will happen but the Chiefs have to be very careful that over-cofidence and lack of experience in extremely high pressure games doesn't cause them to blow lunch at the worst possible time.
The stars are aligned and the team that the Chiefs lost their fist game to is not the same team that they will face on Sunday.

The Patriots are peaking at the perfect time and they showed just how far that they've come since the start of the season. The Chiefs had a solid game against a less than stellar opponent last week and they've had some problems in the last half of the season. The Chiefs were 6-3 in their last 9 games. 4 of those wins were against the Browns, Cardinals and Raiders (2). The other two were against the Ravens and Colts. The 3 losses were against the Seahawks, Rams and Chargers who were all playoff teams.

The Patriots last 9 games were all against non playoiff teams except the Chargers and they were 7-2 with losses against the Steelers and the Titans. Not a great finish, but just what was needed to put them where they will be on Sunday.

 

[YankeeRebel]

I said this before the Charger game and I'll say it before this one. The Patriots had two really bad "Shit" games this season against the Lions and the Titans. The Chiefs have not had an egg laying game where the team just totally shit the bed. As I said before, the playoffs are absolute worst time to foul your BVDs. Rarely does a team go through an entire season without having at least one game where the wheels come off the cart.

I'm not predicting that it will happen but the Chiefs have to be very careful that over-cofidence and lack of experience in extremely high pressure games doesn't cause them to blow lunch at the worst possible time.
The stars are aligned and the team that the Chiefs lost their fist game to is not the same team that they will face on Sunday.

The Patriots are peaking at the perfect time and they showed just how far that they've come since the start of the season. The Chiefs had a solid game against a less than stellar opponent last week and they've had some problems in the last half of the season. The Chiefs were 6-3 in their last 9 games. 4 of those wins were against the Browns, Cardinals and Raiders (2). The other two were against the Ravens and Colts. The 3 losses were against the Seahawks, Rams and Chargers who were all playoff teams.

The Patriots last 9 games were all against non playoiff teams except the Chargers and they were 7-2 with losses against the Steelers and the Titans. Not a great finish, but just what was needed to put them where they will be on Sunday.

While I do not see them having a lay an egg type game I can see their lack of experience and over confidence being an issue. I suspect Reid will do all he can to keep them focused. Reid has given us tough games in the past.

 

[nefansince75]

While I do not see them having a lay an egg type game I can see their lack of experience and over confidence being an issue. I suspect Reid will do all he can to keep them focused. Reid has given us tough games in the past.

I have some chickens and when they lay eggs it's a good thing. When did laying an egg become a bad thing?

I'm sure it's part of a metaphor or something and maybe means they turned into a chicken? or does laying an egg translate to "soiling one's BVDs" as Ken put it?

 

[Dude]

The last game @ Arrowhead will be a bigger focus than last win @ home.

 

[nefansince75]

The last game @ Arrowhead will be a bigger focus than last win @ home.

A game over four years ago, which was later redeemed with a Super Bowl trophy is a bigger focus than a game two months ago? Really?

Honestly, the game four years ago has no relevence and the one two months ago has only a little relevence, since it was essentially a few seconds past a draw.

 

[TP76]

Going to be a monumental challenge... they're going to have to play alot more disciplined on the road than they have. The OL has been atrocious this year on the road. Mental errors and penalties have plagued them. They're gonna have to be flawless up front, especially with Clete Blakeman's crew.

 

[Dude]

A game over four years ago, which was later redeemed with a Super Bowl trophy is a bigger focus than a game two months ago? Really?

Honestly, the game four years ago has no relevence and the one two months ago has only a little relevence, since it was essentially a few seconds past a draw.

Just saying that playing @ KC now, against a more dynamic and powerful offense, considering how close the game was @ home this year, and the hunger that Chiefs have, well, I doubt that BB is not going to look at everything, including how they demolished the Pats 4 years ago.

In these playoffs, Chiefs defense shut down the Colts, and Pats defense dominated the Chargers, not to mention the offenses were very good too, in the first half. Helluva game coming up.

 

[Southieinnc]

Both teams are cold weather teams so the only diff might be one teams ability to run the ball and that edge I do give to the Pats. Its going to be bitterly cold and a dog fight my biggest worries for both teams are injuries moving forward.

Wait just a minute.....

 

[YankeeRebel]

Wait just a minute.....

You do realize the Pats also have an indoor facility?

 

[BigKen]

Had eye surgery this morning and am not supposed to be playing on the computer or my phone.......

Watching TV and caught a great 10 minutes of the Pats/Chiefs game. They were arguing about whether or not weather has an effect. They started with normal temps between 60-80 as the ideal weather. 90 and above is exhausting and favors teams that play in weird heat like Miami, Jacksonville. 20-60 degree isn't severe but can get nasty if there's rains. Below 20 tends to even out the game and take away most advantages because the ball becomes harder and much more difficult to catch and fumbling becomes more prevalent. Temps with winds under 10 degrees are won by teams that make the least mistakes and have the better running team and/or run defense. Historically, Tom Brady has the best ever record in temps below 15 degrees. He's 5-0 but his completion percentage is 58% and his QB rating is 89.

KC is going to have Horace run through on Friday and Saturday and should be gone before Sunday morning. Temps on Sunday will not get above 20 and the temp is expected to be 5 degrees at game time. There will be a slight wind between 12-18 MPH and the wind chill be no higher than -5 throughout the game and could be near -15 by the fourth quarter.

Kansas City is a 3 point favorite only because they are playing at home and will have the crowd advantage.

The field is covered and the heating coils are supposed to be turned on at noon on Sunday. Engineers are fighting about whether or not to turn on the coils. Some think that the cold air might cause areas not directly heated to become icy and cause problems for both teams, They say that leaving a clear cold field will be an advantage to the Chiefs. It'll be interesting to see what they decide to do.

 

[nefansince75]

on WEEI's OMF tonight I heard the expected temp has risen to high teens. Not great, but better.