AFC West Teams: What makes a successful 2017?

[iknowftbll]

I've done this topic the past couple years and it always makes for a decent conversation. The question is simple: what makes for a successful 2017 for the teams in the AFC West. Every team will say they're competing for Super Bowl wins, but we all know some teams are not serious contenders. So this discussion is on the subject of what will these teams have to do in order for the fans to look back and say the season was more success than failure.

I'll begin, taking the division in the order in which they finished 2016:

Kansas City Chiefs: Repeat as AFC West Champs, reach AFCCG. Coming off a 12-4 finish and AFC West title but disappointing playoff loss, the Chiefs fans have high expectations for their team. While many Chiefs fans may consider the team a legitimate contender I think the reality is if the Chiefs can win the division again and make a playoff run that puts them in the AFC title game they will look at it as a successful season. The huge wild card with the Chiefs and the benchmark for a successful season is if they make a QB switch from Smith to Mahommes. If the team is struggling or the offense is flat, the cries to make the move will be loud. If the Chiefs make the switch it essentially moves the goalpost for a successful season. With that said, let's assume Smith has another solid year and their defense can keep it's key players healthy this year. If we assume this, I think Chiefs fans will be pretty disappointed with anything short of an AFCCG appearance.

Oakland Raiders: Win the AFC West, make a Super Bowl run. The Raiders are a trendy pick right now, with some even mentioning them as Super Bowl contenders behind just the Patriots in the AFC. Despite the fact their defense needs to make drastic strides forward this year, the fact that JDR has never coached a team to consecutive playoff appearances and just once coached a team to consecutive winning seasons, and a roster that lacks depth at key positions, the Raiders seem like a shiny new toy to the league and people are jumping on the bandwagon. A critical assessment of the Raiders notwithstanding, they are receiving a lot of hype. Even in their record-setting run in ineptitude in which they were a worse team than the Cleveland Browns (seriously: I've done the math), Raiders fans annually proclaimed "this is the year!" So imagine how high expectations are on the heels of a 12-4 season. I don't think Raiders fans will consider it a successful season unless they finish as conference champions. I personally have my doubts the Raiders even make the playoffs this year, but this is about how Raiders fans will feel about their team's season once it's over, so...

Denver Broncos: Reach the playoffs, win a game. Despite the Broncos having a champion caliber defense, there are still a lot of unanswered questions on offense. Add to that an overhaul of the coaching staff and it's easy to see why many are dismissive of the Broncos chances to reach the playoffs in 2017. Some even suggest this team is heading for a sub .500 season. Despite these factors, this is a team that expects a lot of itself and has generally high expectations from its fans. After missing the playoffs last year, fans are going to want to see progress this year and progress means not only elbowing back into the playoffs but doing some damage once they start. With the defense this team has it'll be tempting, even if the Broncos reach the playoffs as a wild card, to let expectations for a Super Bowl run build. Still, with a relatively unproven offense, if the Broncos can play themselves into a clear QB situation for the long haul and win a playoff game along the way I think most of us Broncos fans would consider this a successful season.

Los Angeles Chargers: Improve on last year's record. I think this team has a ceiling as high as any other in the division, but a floor much lower than any other's as well. The Chargers have been ravaged by injuries the past couple seasons and have still managed to be a pretty scrappy team that seems to be in every game. If they can get over the hump in some of those close games they can be a playoff team. They have a pretty stout front 7 on defense and you can make the argument Rivers is still the best QB in the division. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Chargers flip their 4-12 from 2016 record to a 12-4 record in 2017. Nor will it surprise me if they repeat as cellar dwellers with another 4-12 finish. When you factor in the coaching change and relocation to Los Angeles, a home field advantage that remains to be seen, and all the upheaval of this offseason, I think ultimately a finish that is over last year's 4-12 has got to be considered a success for this team.

What are your thoughts? Fans of all AFC West teams are welcome to join in!

 

[CEH]

Denver could be first or last or anywhere in between. I doubt SD completes for the AFCW. I like Oakland to win the AFCW. Liked them last year to win it and they would have won it with Carr for 16 games.

Denver's D will not be as good as last year. They will need to rely on turnovers to help keep them at the top.

 

[iknowftbll]

Denver could be first or last or anywhere in between. I doubt SD completes for the AFCW. I like Oakland to win the AFCW. Liked them last year to win it and they would have won it with Carr for 16 games.

Denver's D will not be as good as last year. They will need to rely on turnovers to help keep them at the top.

I don't necessarily think all those things are what's going to happen. I think those are the things that need to happen in order for fans to reflect positively on this season. Keep in mind, I think the Broncos can go 11-5 this year and that'll be good enough for a division title.

I'd be curious to hear your rationale for why the defense won't be as good. The way I see it the pass rush should still be pretty stout, the pass defense will be top flight and if the run defense improves it seems the unit as a whole can be better this year, not worse.

I also goofed in the Chargers record in 2016: it was 5-11 not 4-12. A minor detail but important to get this stuff right!

 

[CEH]

The defense is a year older. Miller had zero sacks in the final 4 games last year. That needs to be explained. He'll still be a force but who knows who knows how well Peko will hold up. Kerr the other FA looks like a backup . Asking any D even the 2000 Baltimore Ravens to be top 5 3 years in a row is a huge ask. So I guess father time is the main reason and the lack of upgrades to replace Malik.

 

[iknowftbll]

The defense is a year older. Miller had zero sacks in the final 4 games last year. That needs to be explained. He'll still be a force but who knows who knows how well Peko will hold up. Kerr the other FA looks like a backup . Asking any D even the 2000 Baltimore Ravens to be top 5 3 years in a row is a huge ask. So I guess father time is the main reason and the lack of upgrades to replace Malik.

I think Miller's lack of production can be explained by undo wear and tear. He along with the rest of the defense were wore the hell out by an offense that was second in the league in 3 and outs. I think that can be mitigated with an offense that can stay on the field.

It's true that the guys are all a year older but I don't expect them to just drop off the map either and again, if that run defense improves it's likely a net improvement overall.

The good news is we're about to find out.

 

[CEH]

I think Miller's lack of production can be explained by undo wear and tear. He along with the rest of the defense were wore the hell out by an offense that was second in the league in 3 and outs. I think that can be mitigated with an offense that can stay on the field.

It's true that the guys are all a year older but I don't expect them to just drop off the map either and again, if that run defense improves it's likely a net improvement overall.

The good news is we're about to find out.

Yep. Not much to talk about let the games begin.

 

[Mingo]

If the offense executes and plays with tempo - everything else on this team clicks. The QB is part of that, but he is not all of that. I'm thinking the Broncos will achieve that kind of offense - and early in the season.

I don't think VJ is one of those who cares how the team plays in pre-season - as long as he gets good looks at the players rotating - in and out. Mike McCoy - couldn't individualize the offense until - the QB was picked - so the fans having concerns about the QB play is way premature. It is always this 3rd game - the Broncos want to look like world beaters - in the past.

 

[iknowftbll]

Chiefs fans a little concerned after a flat showing in the dress rehearsal @ Seahawks:

An underwhelming night in Seattle as Chiefs lose 26-13 to Seahawks

 

[Mingo]

I think there is a definite up tick in the trend of fans taking NFL pre-season play as indicative of anything. In my experience the ones you have to worry about are the teams that sail through pre-season football like world beaters. Those teams usually turn up flat for the regular season.

The game tonight will be interesting as it truly is the rehearsal for the season (in the 1st half - anyways).

 

[iknowftbll]

I think there is a definite up tick in the trend of fans taking NFL pre-season play as indicative of anything. In my experience the ones you have to worry about are the teams that sail through pre-season football like world beaters. Those teams usually turn up flat for the regular season.

The game tonight will be interesting as it truly is the rehearsal for the season (in the 1st half - anyways).

As a general rule I approach preseason with the understanding that if you look good you can't get too excited but if you look bad there may be cause for concern. With that said, I think the Chiefs should be a pretty solid team this year. One flat game against the Seahawks in Seattle certainly doesn't doom them to a disappointing season. I do think they're gonna get railed @ Patriots in week 1, but even that doesn't have to define their season.

 

[Mingo]

I would say trending the pre-season is also difficult when the only barometer of success is the first two games - where the coaches are experimenting - veterans are only taking a few snaps - and the fans are still distracted by summer activities.

However, if you take the first two games of this pre-season for the Broncos. I'd say - you have to be pretty happy with the Broncos fixing some holes in the trenches. The run game has been much better in the pre-season than at any time last year. On D - the run stop has been pretty good - considering there are a lot of 1s and 2s not playing on the Dline.

 

[iknowftbll]

In keeping with the rule I mentioned above, here's an interesting read on the Raiders:

Raiders D desperate for strong preseason outing, last chance Saturday

Let's not forget: defensive improvement is critical to this team repeating a performance like last year's. Even as good as their offense was last year they still only won 3 games by more than 1 score. Then in the playoffs that defense got ran over by the Texans, who may have fielded the worst offense to ever play in the playoffs since the league realigned in 2002.

Again, it's just preseason but no team is going out there trying to get run over the way the Raiders have been. It may be a hint that their defense is going to be their undoing this year.

 

[iknowftbll]

I would say trending the pre-season is also difficult when the only barometer of success is the first two games - where the coaches are experimenting - veterans are only taking a few snaps - and the fans are still distracted by summer activities.

However, if you take the first two games of this pre-season for the Broncos. I'd say - you have to be pretty happy with the Broncos fixing some holes in the trenches. The run game has been much better in the pre-season than at any time last year. On D - the run stop has been pretty good - considering there are a lot of 1s and 2s not playing on the Dline.

I'm cautiously optimistic. It's hilarious to me that when FA opened, the Raiders made a few flashy signings, the Patriots went all in on a repeat (as well they should) and the Broncos made the quiet, essential signings that weren't flashy but very much addressed the areas of need.

Those signings are still unproven and even a solid showing tonight won't result in me proclaiming everything's set for a Super Bowl run, but it really does have me excited. Between what appears to be improved effectiveness, there's a nastiness to this o-line that the past two years lacked. That bodes well.

In the Super Bowl contender discussion, I've seen only the Patriots and Raiders mentioned in the AFC, with the Steelers getting an honorable mention here and there. The Raiders are only mentioned because they're a trendy and shiny new toy, while the Patriots are a legit contender. It's rare the prognosticators actually get it right. It's very common the team that has a quiet off season and get overlooked comes out of nowhere with a solid regular season but hits a groove come playoff time. I'm hoping this is the type of year the Broncos are poised to have. I don't see a 13-3 team, but 11-5 or 10-6, and with a strong finish to into the playoffs hot.

I'm getting carried away, but you see my point. The Broncos addressed areas of need this off season and so far the results appear to be effective. That's great news for us, bad news for everyone else.

 

[iknowftbll]

A Chiefs fan on another forum I visit stated he's ready to see the Chiefs transition from Smith to Hahommes. He realizes the downside is lower with Mahommes but believes the upside to be higher. Since with Smith you sort of know what you're going to get and the Chiefs have more or less maximized their potential with him (in this fan's estimation) he's willing to move on.

I am really interested to see what the Chiefs would look like if they make that move. The potential to be more explosive is there, but so too is the potential for their season to nosedive. If they believe in Mahommes long term this shouldn't bother them because it just sets them up with better draft position and building around him. If they believe themselves to be contenders in 2017 they probably should keep Mahommes on the bench.

 

[Mingo]

Mahommes is Lynch on roller skates.