Game Thread: 9/27 Champs @ I's

[filosofy29]

I didnt realize the dog series was a 4-gamer...

The Giants have a 1/500 chance of tying and a 1/1000 chance of winning the division.

Phew! Had me worried there for a second.

 

[LHG]

I HATE that idea. That is really just gymnastics to force strategy out of the game. Force that strategy through the size of the roster, not by some arbitrary rule. This isnt football.

From my perspective, telling a team that they can carry up to 40 players on the active roster but only 28 can play in any one day is no different that forcing a manager to not pitch too many pitchers an inning. They both seem forced.

 

[calsnowskier]

From my perspective, telling a team that they can carry up to 40 players on the active roster but only 28 can play in any one day is no different that forcing a manager to not pitch too many pitchers an inning. They both seem forced.

The regular roster size is 25. Making the late-season roster 28 is still an expansion for player evaluation, but also keeps the game basically the same. Having an unlimited roster makes bench management a joke. And having that aspect of the game removed during the most heated time of the races makes even less sense.

While there will be rare instances where a LOT of pitchers will be used in a game (IIRC, there was a Giants/Padre game where the two teams combined for 16 pitchers, or something like that), basically, the roster will prevent that from happening. If a team wants to use pitchers for 1 batter, they need to build their roster to accommodate that. That means they are likely going with a lite bench.

Thats what I love about the NL game. Not watching the pitcher hit (although that does often become a net-positive), but because I LOVE to see roster management. You just dont get that in the AL.

 

[tzill]

Our chances of catching the Dodgers must be less than 1%. Heck, it is probably less than 0.5%, but whatever, it's good to see that we are still mathematically alive. If the road ends here in our ballpark, I just hope it doesn't happen in the first two games. Anything to make the Dodgers sweat it out a little bit more and to force them to use their starters is a good thing. Of course I don't want them to clinch here, but I don't have very strong feelings about it. We put ourselves in this position.

If by "we" you mean "opposing players hitting us with baseballs and kneeing our heads," then....sure.

 

[tzill]

Mathematically speaking, assuming 50/50 outcomes of all games...

There is a 12.5% chance the Giants sweep the dogs. There is also a 12.5% chance the dogs get swept by the Puds and a 12.5% chance the Giants sweep the Rox. Since the Giants are allowed to have ONE of those two series simply end 2-1 instead of 3-0, one of those odds can be adjusted to 25% instead. Of course, this is only enough to tie the dogs.

Therefore...

12.5% * 12.5% * 25% = 0.39%

So yes. The Giants have approximately a 1/250 chance of tying the dogs for the West this year, a 1/500 chance of winning it.

Your premise is flawed. You can't assume 50/50 outcomes for the games. You'd have to factor in Greinke pitching tonight at the very least. Then, you'd have to take the Giants home record and adjust for the doyers road record, modify for players hurt, etc....

 

[tzill]

I HATE that idea. That is really just gymnastics to force strategy out of the game. Force that strategy through the size of the roster, not by some arbitrary rule. This isnt football.

I agree. I've no problem with 40 man expanded rosters in September, but game day should be limited to 25 players.

Even then, you can leave 3 SP off your 25 man and still gain 3 extra players.

 

[calsnowskier]

Your premise is flawed. You can't assume 50/50 outcomes for the games. You'd have to factor in Greinke pitching tonight at the very least. Then, you'd have to take the Giants home record and adjust for the doyers road record, modify for players hurt, etc....

Really?
you mean baseball games are not simple coin flips?

Please explain further.

 

[filosofy29]

Really?
you mean baseball games are not simple coin flips?

Please explain further.

I agree. I've no problem with 40 man expanded rosters in September, but game day should be limited to 25 players.

Even then, you can leave 3 SP off your 25 man and still gain 3 extra players.

when is the divorce finalized?

 

[msgkings322]

If by "we" you mean "opposing players hitting us with baseballs and kneeing our heads," then....sure.

So you've switched to thinking injuries are what brought us down, instead of starting pitching? Maybe 'we' stands for 'WEak link'....

 

[tzill]

So you've switched to thinking injuries are what brought us down, instead of starting pitching? Maybe 'we' stands for 'WEak link'....

#weaklink made it impossible to defend our title. #mashunit made it impossible to make the playoffs.

 

[calsnowskier]

#weaklink made it impossible to defend our title. #mashunit made it impossible to make the playoffs.

Disagree.

The pitching made repeating difficult, but the injuries were what truly killed this team. The Giants have been abysmal in 1-run games this year. That tells me that if we were able to field a Major League Lineup, we would have been fine.

 

[tzill]

Disagree.

The pitching made repeating difficult, but the injuries were what truly killed this team. The Giants have been abysmal in 1-run games this year. That tells me that if we were able to field a Major League Lineup, we would have been fine.

depends upon what you mean by "fine." Win the division? Maybe. Advance in the playoffs? Unlikely.

 

[msgkings322]

#weaklink made it impossible to defend our title. #mashunit made it impossible to make the playoffs.

Classic lawyerly hair splitting. Not too sure what the difference is there, don't you have to make the playoffs to defend the title?

 

[tzill]

Classic lawyerly hair splitting. Not too sure what the difference is there, don't you have to make the playoffs to defend the title?

Seriously? I need to explain the difference between "necessary" and "sufficient?"

Wow.