7/5 GDT Giants @ Nats

[Stokes1931]

Espinoza's strategic lean into a strike really played a big part in that win. Moved the line a couple of hitters, and got the top of the Nats lineup up in the ninth.

Pitching let us down for sure.

But the clutch hitting has been abysmal. 3-15 tonight? That ain't going to get it done.

 

[Stokes1931]

He got the DP groundball. Can't ask more than that in the situation.

Hmmm, I only saw the GameDay description, did not see the play.

Pitching and defense. Both failed this series, as did the clutch hitting.

Bring on the Bucs!

 

[Slimpikins]

CHOKE!

What a terrible series.

 

[1phlapdown]

And I felt soooo goood about this team last week after those 4 shut-outs. Now FYWW is WFYW (we're fucked you win). Crimeny.

 

[gp956]

Hmmm, I only saw the GameDay description, did not see the play.

Pitching and defense. Both failed this series, as did the clutch hitting.

Bring on the Bucs!

Yeah, a team loss in this game, players and coaches.

 

[Stokes1931]

Captain Obvious here (taking over from GoldenBears98 from the old days). Giants were a pathetic 6-36 this series with RISP, that's a .167 clip. They left 24 on base this series, played like Keystone Kops in the field, and pitched like dog doodoo.

The pitching will be fine, I am not worried. I am not yet to the point of pulling the plug on Casilla as closer. However, Bochy needs to give him a shorter leash.

We do desperately need an RBI man. None of the players on the team seems capable of raising their game with RISP. I like all the hitters, from Blanco to Riot to Leche to Posey, etc, but dayum, someone needs to seriously step up their RBI game.

The Giants were out-homered 7-1 in this series, and are now 29th in baseball (1 ahead of the Dogs). Giants are 28th with RISP (really, that high?). Giants are dead last in OBP with RISP, and 29th in SLG.

The RISP is getting serious. We spent the better part of the first six weeks hitting less than .190 with RISP, and only crossed the .200 line in late May.

Getting guys on base is not the problem. Driving them in is a problem.

I wonder if AT&T is a problem. Guys not named Bonds who hit well there know they won't be hitting many homers. Then they get on the road in places like Philly and DC, where the parks just send out engraved invitations to hit a few over the wall. But since the Giants are not that kind of team, they don't swing for the fences. Or maybe they try too hard to swing for the fences.

With our significant injuries, 45-38 is a fair result so far. I hate to see the (usually) fine pitching get so wasted, once again, but hitters who can't or won't drive in runs.

 

[msgkings322]

Up to Zito to stop the bleeding tomorrow.

He did it the 4th game of the year, after the Dbags swept us...same situation, same result? Our pen even choked away a Cain win in that series finale too.

More silver lining: Pirates don't hit the way the Nats do. A team more like ours, built on pitching.

 

[gp956]

Captain Obvious here (taking over from GoldenBears98 from the old days). Giants were a pathetic 6-36 this series with RISP, that's a .167 clip. They left 24 on base this series, played like Keystone Kops in the field, and pitched like dog doodoo.

The pitching will be fine, I am not worried. I am not yet to the point of pulling the plug on Casilla as closer. However, Bochy needs to give him a shorter leash.

We do desperately need an RBI man. None of the players on the team seems capable of raising their game with RISP. I like all the hitters, from Blanco to Riot to Leche to Posey, etc, but dayum, someone needs to seriously step up their RBI game.

The Giants were out-homered 7-1 in this series, and are now 29th in baseball (1 ahead of the Dogs). Giants are 28th with RISP (really, that high?). Giants are dead last in OBP with RISP, and 29th in SLG.

The RISP is getting serious. We spent the better part of the first six weeks hitting less than .190 with RISP, and only crossed the .200 line in late May.

Getting guys on base is not the problem. Driving them in is a problem.

I wonder if AT&T is a problem. Guys not named Bonds who hit well there know they won't be hitting many homers. Then they get on the road in places like Philly and DC, where the parks just send out engraved invitations to hit a few over the wall. But since the Giants are not that kind of team, they don't swing for the fences. Or maybe they try too hard to swing for the fences.

With our significant injuries, 45-38 is a fair result so far. I hate to see the (usually) fine pitching get so wasted, once again, but hitters who can't or won't drive in runs.

That and the sporadically poor defense. I'm not too concerned about the RISP problems, most of that falls on limited ML experience and guys trying to do too much. Pablo is aggravating though, it's probably SSS bias, but he sucks with the bases loaded - his production drops in half. It's the lack of power that will prove to be this team achilles heal, if it's not righted.

They can win the West without it, but I can't see them staying with Texas this time around.

 

[mistgl]

That and the sporadically poor defense. I'm not too concerned about the RISP problems, most of that falls on limited ML experience and guys trying to do too much. Pablo is aggravating though, it's probably SSS bias, but he sucks with the bases loaded - his production drops in half. It's the lack of power that will prove to be this team achilles heal, if it's not righted.

They can win the West without it, but I can't see them staying with Texas this time around.

Whats there to do, though? The market for power bats is kind of slim with Carlos Quentin headlining the bunch. And that just seems like Beltran all over again...

Injury history? Check
No compensation? Check
Cost a top prospect? Check

BONUS ROUND!!!
Inter division trade that will cost more than normal? Double Check

Melky is a spray hitter, Buster is a Jack of all trades guy at the plate who does every thing good, but nothing GREAT, and Panda is, and will always be, a hacker. A damn good hacker with power, but a hacker none the less.

I don't think any of those three were ever meant to be 'the guy' and we're trying to force them all into an offensive role they were never meant for, Buster especially.

 

[gp956]

Whats there to do, though? The market for power bats is kind of slim with Carlos Quentin headlining the bunch. And that just seems like Beltran all over again...

Injury history? Check
No compensation? Check
Cost a top prospect? Check

BONUS ROUND!!!
Inter division trade that will cost more than normal? Double Check

Melky is a spray hitter, Buster is a Jack of all trades guy at the plate who does every thing good, but nothing GREAT, and Panda is, and will always be, a hacker. A damn good hacker with power, but a hacker none the less.

I don't think any of those three were ever meant to be 'the guy' and we're trying to force them all into an offensive role they were never meant for, Buster especially.

There isn't much that can be done externally. Internally, Belt has to start hitting with more power, Pablo will hit with more power, and the only other possible internal power source is if Nate can somehow find his way into the lineup and then produces. I put the latter possibility at about 3%.

I'm projecting 65HR for the second half.

 

[mistgl]

There isn't much that can be done externally. Internally, Belt has to start hitting with more power, Pablo will hit with more power, and the only other possible internal power source is if Nate can somehow find his way into the lineup and then produces. I put the latter possibility at about 3%.

I'm projecting 65HR for the second half.

I hear ya on Belt, but I just don't think Nate has it in him.

 

[msgkings322]

I hear ya on Belt, but I just don't think Nate has it in him.

He doesn't either (3% chance)

But it begs the question why gp would even mention Nate hitting HRs as a reasonable possibility. Better chance Pagan or Melky hit more.

The HR thing is a mess. Panda being out is one reason ours are so low, and Belt not getting going.

But as Stokes keeps harping on, the BA w RISP thing is the real problem. We don't need a ton of HRs if we can get some timely doubles and singles.

 

[Stokes1931]

There isn't much that can be done externally. Internally, Belt has to start hitting with more power, Pablo will hit with more power, and the only other possible internal power source is if Nate can somehow find his way into the lineup and then produces. I put the latter possibility at about 3%.

I'm projecting 65HR for the second half.

This lineup couldn't hit 65 HR if they played until Christmas, even if all their games were played in Philly. Of course, I would love to be proven wrong.

Perhaps we really do need a rejuvenated Huffer back for this to happen.

 

[gp956]

He doesn't either (3% chance)

But it begs the question why gp would even mention Nate hitting HRs as a reasonable possibility. Better chance Pagan or Melky hit more.

The HR thing is a mess. Panda being out is one reason ours are so low, and Belt not getting going.

But as Stokes keeps harping on, the BA w RISP thing is the real problem. We don't need a ton of HRs if we can get some timely doubles and singles.

How can you parse a "3% chance" to mean a "reasonable possibly?" In any case, if Nate can worm his way into the lineup he'll project out to more homeruns than Blanco. Melky and Oxy are right in line with their career expectations.

With Nate I'm using a bit of conditional probability here, there's a 90% chance he'll hit more HR than Blanco if he's playing, conditioned on a 3.2% chance that he actually plays. The former is not statistically independent from the latter, btw.

Yeah, the specifics of that last paragraph is mostly tongue in cheek. Just so no one goes all

 

[Heathbar012]

How can you parse a "3% chance" to mean a "reasonable possibly?" In any case, if Nate can worm his way into the lineup he'll project out to more homeruns than Blanco. Melky and Oxy are right in line with their career expectations.

With Nate I'm using a bit of conditional probability here, there's a 90% chance he'll hit more HR than Blanco if he's playing, conditioned on a 3.2% chance that he actually plays. The former is not statistically independent from the latter, btw.

Yeah, the specifics of that last paragraph is mostly tongue in cheek. Just so no one goes all

I, for one, would like the numbers broken down more precisely! How else can I support your theory?! Okay, I'm done.

Yeah. Home runs are whatever. RISP is the important stuff. So are bunts like the one that The Riot threw down last night. I like that kind of baseball, and coincidentally, it is the type of baseball that the Giants need to play to get wins with or without Carlos Quentin, or whatever over-priced power bat will be available at the deadline.

 

[gp956]

This lineup couldn't hit 65 HR if they played until Christmas, even if all their games were played in Philly. Of course, I would love to be proven wrong.

Perhaps we really do need a rejuvenated Huffer back for this to happen.

Really? Are you forgetting Pablo's power and playing time was sapped in the first half, and Belt's lost power? Really it's not much of a stretch, most of the heavy lifting must be done by Pablo returning to career norms, and Belt flashing his HR power from last year.

Let's do a reality check. Is it unreasonable to project Belt to hit 11HR in the second half?

 

[gp956]

I, for one, would like the numbers broken down more precisely! How else can I support your theory?! Okay, I'm done.

Yeah. Home runs are whatever. RISP is the important stuff. So are bunts like the one that The Riot threw down last night. I like that kind of baseball, and coincidentally, it is the type of baseball that the Giants need to play to get wins with or without Carlos Quentin, or whatever over-priced power bat will be available at the deadline.

Yeah, I think RISP will take care of itself when the team starts hitting more HR.

 

[Heathbar012]

Yeah, I think RISP will take care of itself when the team starts hitting more HR.

I see what you did there... and I don't need a clever gif to prove it! Fair enough, but a hit is still a hit, and this roster should win any game that they score 5 runs in. The games where they haven't are an anomaly, but I am worried about Casilla's health. Something is not the same, and I think he is trying to pitch through it. The sad reality is that the Giants might need him to.

 

[gp956]

I see what you did there... and I don't need a clever gif to prove it! Fair enough, but a hit is still a hit, and this roster should win any game that they score 5 runs in. The games where they haven't are an anomaly, but I am worried about Casilla's health. Something is not the same, and I think he is trying to pitch through it. The sad reality is that the Giants might need him to.

I think the sudden increase in work load has gotten to Casilla. I'm sure Bochy will ease back on using him - otherwise he's going to set career records for innings pitched by August at this pace. I keep hearing Jonathan Broxton being mentioned as a possible trade target.

I also keep hearing a persistent cry for Romo as closer from the saber crowd. Eric Byrnes was the latest (he gets his saber insights from MLB's Clubhouse Confidential's host) . Just by the numbers, Romo is no doubt the ideal Giants relief pitcher to move into the closer role. But we know those numbers come from being babied through the year. His cranky elbow would not allow him to be an everyday closer - unless he wants a really brief career.

I think Brad Penny has a go at it too.

 

[Heathbar012]

I think the sudden increase in work load has gotten to Casilla. I'm sure Bochy will ease back on using him - otherwise he's going to set career records for innings pitched by August at this pace. I keep hearing Jonathan Broxton being mentioned as a possible trade target.

Not a bad idea. Revenge may not be logical, but it is certainly a great motivator.