Series Thread: 7/29-8/4: vs TOR, @ CLE

[ThomasTomasz]

7/29: vs Toronto x2 @ 3:05 pm

7/30: vs Toronto @ 6:35 pm

7/31: vs Toronto @ 12:35 pm

8/1: @ Cleveland 6:40 pm

8/2: @ Cleveland 7:10 pm

8/3: @ Cleveland 7:15 pm

8/4: @ Cleveland 1:40 pm

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Sorry I missed this yesterday.

I was at the First game and half of the second, it just got too late with work the next day. With the weather delay, I’d say the crowd was more for the first game than the second.

But James McCann…….dude is going to live in Baltimore fan folklore for a very long time. What a dog.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Good win tonight, great to see Corbin Burnes almost take 7 innings when we have a 12:30 game tomorrow.

Santander is still scorching hot.

That is all

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Series win against the Jays. Great game from Rodriguez on the mound. Holliday is welcomed back with a salami that was just crushed, and now a day after the trade deadline, Jordan Westburg is lost for just about the rest of the regular season with a broken hand. I hope Holliday is ready. Really tough series against Cleveland is on tap.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

From the Fangraphs article "ZiPSing Up the Trade Deadline":

• Apparently, the ZiPS projection system suggests that the Orioles' marginal upgrades across the board may be enough to improve the team from a slight underdog in the divisional race (47.3% chance of winning, vs. 49.0% for the Yankees) to a slight favorite (56.8% vs. 41.8%)
  
  
• The probability for winning the World Series likewise increases from 10.7% (vs. 12.6% for the Yankees) to 16.0% (vs. 12.9% for the Yankees), thus making the Orioles the favorite across the whole MLB on paper (!)

This seems very optimistic, and my guess is that the expected improvement is largely attributable to the rotation: The projected whole-season fWAR figures are 3.4 for Eflin and 1.7 for Rogers, versus 0.2 for Suárez and 1.2 for Povich (or if you prefer, 0.9 for Irvin). That's a net gain of +3.7 to +4.0 wins over 162 games, which would be pro-rated to about +1.2 to +1.3 wins for the remaining one-third of the season-- and we haven't even accounted for the bullpen yet.

Of course, there's the caveat that this estimated improvement will necessarily be offset by the injuries of Mateo and Westburg. (The "Depth Charts" page on Fangraphs is now allocating most of the 2B at-bats for the remainder of the regular season to Holliday, while 3B would be split between Urías and Mayo. The net effect is probably minor, maybe about -0.3 wins.) But if we are talking about the trades alone, the "minor upgrades across multiple roster spots" strategy seems theoretically sound. We'll see whether that actually works in practice...

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Trevor Rogers is not looking great. One start does not make everything though, but this inning was a tough one to watch.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Trevor Rogers is not looking great. One start does not make everything though, but this inning was a tough one to watch.

Final score: Browns 10, Ravens 3 (/s)

(Hopefully, this is the throwaway game of the series since the remaining 3 starting pitcher match-ups are arguably more favorable on paper.)

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Here comes Coby Mayo, being called up to (hopefully) make his debut. Wonder what the active roster move is, since we already have the 40 man spot open.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Well, the Gregory Soto experience sucks.

We did make some in-roads against the Guardians bullpen, but you gotta capitalize on having Carrasco on the ropes in the second inning, because you’re just screwed with Clase. He’s the best closer since Rivera.

It is good to see Holliday making some good contact against Barlow and Clase though and getting those hits.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

We are going to make Joey Cantillo look like Cy Young tonight aren’t we?

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Welcome to Baltimore Eloy Jimenez

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Holliday has had some good contact this series

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Holliday has had some good contact this series

It's a tiny sample size, but one could make an argument for batting Rutschman 9th in the lineup in order to move up Holliday based on 2nd-half stats...

 

[ThomasTomasz]

1-2-3 in the 9th for Cano. That video of Kimbrel shows a dude who is pissed, about as pissed as we are about him.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Split salvaged with the Guardians. Some brief things from me:

1.) Good offensive showing against Gavin Williams, who over his career does a great job at limiting HR

2.) Lots of hard contact from Jackson Holliday this series and a homer today. He looks like he belongs now

3.) Later in the series we did a great job at breaking into Cleveland’s bullpen.

4.) Coby Mayo still has a lot to learn but I hope they let him run with it a little bit

5.) I can get behind Dominguez but I’m not so sure on Soto

6.) Trevor Rogers has a lot to prove, but hopefully it was first start jitters.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

4.) Coby Mayo still has a lot to learn but I hope they let him run with it a little bit

5.) I can get behind Dominguez but I’m not so sure on Soto

6.) Trevor Rogers has a lot to prove, but hopefully it was first start jitters.

Re: (4) -- The interesting question is how the Orioles will handle Mayo when they are currently tied with the Yankees. If Mayo continues to struggle like Holliday did initially upon being called up, one has to wonder whether they would simply pinch-hit for Mayo as needed, or attempt a platoon of some sort (since Urías is apparently showing reverse L/R splits in his career stats, thus suggesting Urías vs. R and Mayo vs. L as a possibility).

(5) Since salary is a sunk cost, I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Kimbrel in a 7th inning role while allowing Dominguez and Cano to take turns being co-closers. As for Gregory Soto, perhaps the better question is whether the last spot in the bullpen should go to him versus Burch Smith, as one could argue that Akin, Webb, and Pérez are all better from a 2024 or career stats standpoint. (Soto's stats this year are showing a "left-handed specialist" profile, while Burch Smith appears to be a right-handed specialist; that means one could argue for either depending on the matchup.)

(6) Considering that Rogers got to Cleveland with hours to spare prior to the 8/1 game, they probably should have allowed Kremer to start on regular rest and scheduled Rogers for 8/2 instead (although it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway?) But I think the important part is that Eflin is definitely the new #3 starter now, and thus Rogers should be compared against Kremer / Suárez / Irvin / Povich / McDermott at this point. (Rogers's advanced stats after one bad start with the Orioles now looks worse than Kremer's, or even that of Suárez, but otherwise I agree that it's too early to tell.)