Game Thread: 7/16 Scrabble @ Fathers

[Stokes1931]

After being in the original lineup, Brandon Belt was removed about an hour before first pitch due to a left wrist sprain.

San Francisco Giants:
1. Denard Span (L) CF
2. Eduardo Nunez (R) 3B
3. Hunter Pence (R) RF
4. Buster Posey (R) 1B
5. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
6. Nick Hundley (R) C
7. Joe Panik (L) 2B
8. Gorkys Hernandez (R) LF
9. Jeff Samardzija (R) P

San Diego Padres:
1. Jose Pirela (R) LF
2. Carlos Asuaje (L) 2B
3. Wil Myers (R) 1B
4. Hector Sanchez (S) C
5. Jabari Blash (R) RF
6. Cory Spangenberg (L) 3B
7. Erick Aybar (S) SS
8. Matt Szczur (R) CF
9. Trevor Cahill (R) P

 

[1phlapdown]

Gs down by three in the 3rd. What a surprise.

 

[calsnowskier]

Sammy must REALLY like playing for the Giants. He is doing his best to squash the Astros rumors by himself.

 

[Stokes1931]

Scrabble gives up two EWS in the same game. I think the pathetic Giants offense has one all season. Is there a mercy rule in the MLB? This team should be relegated to the Eastern League.

 

[Stokes1931]

Great start to the 2nd half

Losing a series to the Padres

Having our "ace" go on the DL (really impressing scouts)

Having our #2/3 completely flame out in his start today (really impressing scouts)

Not being able to hit or score (outscored 16-8), making the run difference -109 for the season.

On the plus side, Bum pitched great, and we still lost that game.

100 losses by September? High draft pick.

 

[calsnowskier]

 

[msgkings322]

Great start to the 2nd half

Losing a series to the Padres

Having our "ace" go on the DL (really impressing scouts)

Having our #2/3 completely flame out in his start today (really impressing scouts)

Not being able to hit or score (outscored 16-8), making the run difference -109 for the season.

On the plus side, Bum pitched great, and we still lost that game.

100 losses by September? High draft pick.

You are calling Cueto our ace? Man the losing has fried your brain.

Cueto isn't getting traded so no need to impress scouts. He isn't getting traded because no one is gonna want to pick up his contract that he will surely opt in on, and the Giants will figure he can bounce back if he's blister free next year. And honestly that's not that bad of an assumption.

 

[calsnowskier]

You are calling Cueto our ace? Man the losing has fried your brain.

Cueto isn't getting traded so no need to impress scouts. He isn't getting traded because no one is gonna want to pick up his contract that he will surely opt in on, and the Giants will figure he can bounce back if he's blister free next year. And honestly that's not that bad of an assumption.

I agree that there is a decent chance he can bounce back. He has never had blister issues before this year. I agree with the theories that say it is due to the changing ball used by MLB.

 

[msgkings322]

I agree that there is a decent chance he can bounce back. He has never had blister issues before this year. I agree with the theories that say it is due to the changing ball used by MLB.

Yes you've mentioned this a time or two....

 

[Stokes1931]

You are calling Cueto our ace? Man the losing has fried your brain.

Cueto isn't getting traded so no need to impress scouts. He isn't getting traded because no one is gonna want to pick up his contract that he will surely opt in on, and the Giants will figure he can bounce back if he's blister free next year. And honestly that's not that bad of an assumption.

With Bum out, yes, Cueto has been our de facto ace.

The losing has been difficult. Seemingly every move this season has backfired. Hopefully Cueto can get it back together.

 

[calsnowskier]

With Bum out, yes, Cueto has been our de facto ace.

The losing has been difficult. Seemingly every move this season has backfired. Hopefully Cueto can get it back together.

But it isn't Gorkys' fault. He needs to continue to play more, damn it!

 

[msgkings322]

With Bum out, yes, Cueto has been our de facto ace.

The losing has been difficult. Seemingly every move this season has backfired. Hopefully Cueto can get it back together.

No doubt. Plus stuff that was supposed to happen like Brandon Crawford producing didn't, and one of the best pitchers in baseball missed the entire first half. Will Smith isn't talked about enough. Injuries matter. Not always an explanation for it, just a shit year.

 

[LHG]

No doubt. Plus stuff that was supposed to happen like Brandon Crawford producing didn't, and one of the best pitchers in baseball missed the entire first half. Will Smith isn't talked about enough. Injuries matter. Not always an explanation for it, just a shit year.

Smith's WAR last year was 0.2. His best season, by WAR, was in 2015, when it was 1.1.
Bumgarner, however, was 5.0 last year. If he hadn't missed the months of May, June and July, he may have given the Giants 3 more wins.
Combined, if the two were healthy the full year, they may have improved the team's win column by 4 games. Injuries may matter, to the extent that the team would have more wins, but I don't think the injuries matter enough to be talked about much when the topic is the horridness that is the 2017 Giants.

 

[msgkings322]

Smith's WAR last year was 0.2. His best season, by WAR, was in 2015, when it was 1.1.
Bumgarner, however, was 5.0 last year. If he hadn't missed the months of May, June and July, he may have given the Giants 3 more wins.
Combined, if the two were healthy the full year, they may have improved the team's win column by 4 games. Injuries may matter, to the extent that the team would have more wins, but I don't think the injuries matter enough to be talked about much when the topic is the horridness that is the 2017 Giants.

But it's more than just a player's own WAR. If the ace is there eating innings and being acey, you don't have to lean on the mediocre pen so much. If Smith is handling the 8th inning, your other relievers can do their part better.

Again, I'm not saying they would be right there if they stayed healthy. Obviously not. But it's a factor.

No excuse for Crawford, Samardjiza, Moore, Pence, etc all playing below to WAY below expectations. A lot of players sucked this year, so the team sucks.

 

[LHG]

I'm also being a bit generous with WAR as well. Bumgarner's highest WAR was last year. Even if he matched his career high in WAR, it would closer to a 2.5 WAR that would have been lost in the almost 3 months he didn't pitch. Smith's average WAR is 0.3. Those two don't even equal 3 wins. But let's say that the two of them fully healthy would have netted the Giants 6 more wins on the season. Going on the current winning percentage, the Giants are headed toward a 62-100 record for 2017. Changing 6 of those losses to wins, the season would instead be 68-94. Not seeing triple digits in the loss column makes it look a lot less ugly, but the reality is that the team would still be awful. The difference would probably be the 3rd worst record in baseball versus the 2nd worst record.

This got me thinking, what has caused the great collapse? So I thought I'd look at the three average WAR (14-16) for the major players compared with 2017's projected WAR. There's what I got:

Brandon Belt - 3.0 4.0 (net gain of 1.0)
Madison Bumgarner - 4.6 3.0 (net loss of 1.6)
Matt Cain - -0.4 0.4 (net gain of 0.8!)
Brandon Crawford - 4.4 0.5 (net loss of 3.9!!)
Johnny Cueto - 5.3 2.3 (net loss of 3.0)
Gorkys Hernandez - -0.1 -0.6 (net loss of 0.5)
Mark Melcancon/Sam Dyson - 2.4 1.1 (net loss of 1.3)
Matt Moore - 0.7 -0.3 (net loss of 1.0)
Eduardo Nunez - 1.4 0.3 (net loss of 0.9)
Joe Panik - 1.9 0.6 (net loss of 0.3)
Hunter Pence - 2.2 -1.6 (net loss of 3.8!)
Buster Posey - 5.3 5.3 5.2 (net loss of 0.1)
Jeff Samardzija - 2.2 1.3 (net loss of 0.9)
Denard Span - 1.8 -0.8 (net loss of 2.6)
Bullpen/replacement starters - 5.3 (2016) 5.5 (2017) (net gain of 0.2)
Bench/platoon players - 3.3 (2016) -6.2 (2017) (net loss of 9.5!!!!)
Pitchers hitting - 1.0 (2016) 0.3 (2017) (net loss of 0.7)

Going by the 4 big categories:
Starting 8 - Net loss of 11.1
Starting rotation - Net loss of 5.7
Bullpen - Net loss of 1.1
Bench - Net loss of 9.5

I realize that I may not be using WAR properly (which would strengthen your argument about injuries), but to take my little exercise to its conclusion, if the regulars played to their three year average, and the bench/bullpen produced like last year, the result would be 27 more wins on the year. That would be an 89-73 record instead of a 62-100 record.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm also being a bit generous with WAR as well. Bumgarner's highest WAR was last year. Even if he matched his career high in WAR, it would closer to a 2.5 WAR that would have been lost in the almost 3 months he didn't pitch. Smith's average WAR is 0.3. Those two don't even equal 3 wins. But let's say that the two of them fully healthy would have netted the Giants 6 more wins on the season. Going on the current winning percentage, the Giants are headed toward a 62-100 record for 2017. Changing 6 of those losses to wins, the season would instead be 68-94. Not seeing triple digits in the loss column makes it look a lot less ugly, but the reality is that the team would still be awful. The difference would probably be the 3rd worst record in baseball versus the 2nd worst record.

This got me thinking, what has caused the great collapse? So I thought I'd look at the three average WAR (14-16) for the major players compared with 2017's projected WAR. There's what I got:

Brandon Belt - 3.0 4.0 (net gain of 1.0)
Madison Bumgarner - 4.6 3.0 (net loss of 1.6)
Matt Cain - -0.4 0.4 (net gain of 0.8!)
Brandon Crawford - 4.4 0.5 (net loss of 3.9!!)
Johnny Cueto - 5.3 2.3 (net loss of 3.0)
Gorkys Hernandez - -0.1 -0.6 (net loss of 0.5)
Mark Melcancon/Sam Dyson - 2.4 1.1 (net loss of 1.3)
Matt Moore - 0.7 -0.3 (net loss of 1.0)
Eduardo Nunez - 1.4 0.3 (net loss of 0.9)
Joe Panik - 1.9 0.6 (net loss of 0.3)
Hunter Pence - 2.2 -1.6 (net loss of 3.8!)
Buster Posey - 5.3 5.3 5.2 (net loss of 0.1)
Jeff Samardzija - 2.2 1.3 (net loss of 0.9)
Denard Span - 1.8 -0.8 (net loss of 2.6)
Bullpen/replacement starters - 5.3 (2016) 5.5 (2017) (net gain of 0.2)
Bench/platoon players - 3.3 (2016) -6.2 (2017) (net loss of 9.5!!!!)
Pitchers hitting - 1.0 (2016) 0.3 (2017) (net loss of 0.7)

Going by the 4 big categories:
Starting 8 - Net loss of 11.1
Starting rotation - Net loss of 5.7
Bullpen - Net loss of 1.1
Bench - Net loss of 9.5

I realize that I may not be using WAR properly (which would strengthen your argument about injuries), but to take my little exercise to its conclusion, if the regulars played to their three year average, and the bench/bullpen produced like last year, the result would be 27 more wins on the year. That would be an 89-73 record instead of a 62-100 record.

Great post. Just puts the numbers on what we all see, it's not the FO's fault. The players for some reason all decided to suck this year, except Belt and Posey pretty much.

 

[LHG]

Great post. Just puts the numbers on what we all see, it's not the FO's fault. The players for some reason all decided to suck this year, except Belt and Posey pretty much.

Thanks. I don't necessarily blame the FO for this mess. I'm concerned, however, with what they do with it. Crawford's drop off was more surprising that what I had expected. Some, to a lesser extent, for Pence. What really shocked me was how much worse the bench has been this year, considering all the gripping we've done over the past couple of years about the lack of production from the bench. That, and the fact that Matt Cain is actually overachieving this year!

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm also being a bit generous with WAR as well. Bumgarner's highest WAR was last year. Even if he matched his career high in WAR, it would closer to a 2.5 WAR that would have been lost in the almost 3 months he didn't pitch. Smith's average WAR is 0.3. Those two don't even equal 3 wins. But let's say that the two of them fully healthy would have netted the Giants 6 more wins on the season. Going on the current winning percentage, the Giants are headed toward a 62-100 record for 2017. Changing 6 of those losses to wins, the season would instead be 68-94. Not seeing triple digits in the loss column makes it look a lot less ugly, but the reality is that the team would still be awful. The difference would probably be the 3rd worst record in baseball versus the 2nd worst record.

This got me thinking, what has caused the great collapse? So I thought I'd look at the three average WAR (14-16) for the major players compared with 2017's projected WAR. There's what I got:

Brandon Belt - 3.0 4.0 (net gain of 1.0)
Madison Bumgarner - 4.6 3.0 (net loss of 1.6)
Matt Cain - -0.4 0.4 (net gain of 0.8!)
Brandon Crawford - 4.4 0.5 (net loss of 3.9!!)
Johnny Cueto - 5.3 2.3 (net loss of 3.0)
Gorkys Hernandez - -0.1 -0.6 (net loss of 0.5)
Mark Melcancon/Sam Dyson - 2.4 1.1 (net loss of 1.3)
Matt Moore - 0.7 -0.3 (net loss of 1.0)
Eduardo Nunez - 1.4 0.3 (net loss of 0.9)
Joe Panik - 1.9 0.6 (net loss of 0.3)
Hunter Pence - 2.2 -1.6 (net loss of 3.8!)
Buster Posey - 5.3 5.3 5.2 (net loss of 0.1)
Jeff Samardzija - 2.2 1.3 (net loss of 0.9)
Denard Span - 1.8 -0.8 (net loss of 2.6)
Bullpen/replacement starters - 5.3 (2016) 5.5 (2017) (net gain of 0.2)
Bench/platoon players - 3.3 (2016) -6.2 (2017) (net loss of 9.5!!!!)
Pitchers hitting - 1.0 (2016) 0.3 (2017) (net loss of 0.7)

Going by the 4 big categories:
Starting 8 - Net loss of 11.1
Starting rotation - Net loss of 5.7
Bullpen - Net loss of 1.1
Bench - Net loss of 9.5

I realize that I may not be using WAR properly (which would strengthen your argument about injuries), but to take my little exercise to its conclusion, if the regulars played to their three year average, and the bench/bullpen produced like last year, the result would be 27 more wins on the year. That would be an 89-73 record instead of a 62-100 record.

You actually short changed your point. Re-check Joe Panik...

 

[LHG]

You actually short changed your point. Re-check Joe Panik...

Nice catch. That would put the team at 90-72 if everyone performed at their 3 year average.