Game Thread: 5/22 Blachparty @Chubbs

[calsnowskier]

I see your point, but there are a bunch of advanced analyses that show that pretty much everyone reverts to about .300 BABIP. Now, some players put a ton more balls in play than others, so their average will be higher but that's the mean.

A similar argument raged on the interwebs years ago about Cain and his HR rate given his propensity for fly balls. I think the consensus is that eventually he'd revert to the mean and he did.

Re: Cain...

That argument was and is bunk. When he was younger, he had late movement on his pitches which caused more bad contact. These analysts assume every time a ball hits a bat, it is with consistent contact, which is a flaw in the thinking.

Sure, Cain reverted to the mean. But not because luck caught up to him. He reverted because of injury, age and mileage.

 

[tzill]

Re: Cain...

That argument was and is bunk. When he was younger, he had late movement on his pitches which caused more bad contact. These analysts assume every time a ball hits a bat, it is with consistent contact, which is a flaw in the thinking.

Sure, Cain reverted to the mean. But not because luck caught up to him. He reverted because of injury, age and mileage.

You might be right, and that's the argument many made at the time.