48 hours to go, Houston we got problems

[tpaulus_2]

But damn, my gut tells me he makes the trade for Watkins up to #3, giving up this years 1st and 2nd rd picks plus next years 1st rd, all while getting back Jax's 2014 1st rd #3 and both their 4th rd picks #105 and #114.

That's far too much value to move up only 7 spots. This year's 1st and 2nd is enough for that trade, no reason he should even consider adding in next year's 1st unless he wants to move all the way up to #1 and draft Clowney...

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

That's far too much value to move up only 7 spots. This year's 1st and 2nd is enough for that trade, no reason he should even consider adding in next year's 1st unless he wants to move all the way up to #1 and draft Clowney...

Then try this on for size Tpaul, coming from ESPN John Clayton regarding trades that should happen.

1. The Houston Texans will trade the first pick in the draft. The Texans switched to a 3-4 defense in 2011 and went from being one of the worst defenses in the league to one of the best. But maintaining the outside linebacker position is dragging down the roster. The franchise is drafting high at outside linebacker too often and neglecting other positions. It let former first-rounder Mario Williams and former second-rounder Connor Barwin walk instead of paying them. They have been replaced by Whitney Mercilus and Brooks Reed, first- and second-round picks.

If the Texans take Jadeveon Clowney, they will have used two first-round and two second-round picks on outside linebacker/defensive end types since 2009. If they can't make a trade, it makes sense to take Clowney if they think he's the best player in the draft. But it makes more sense to trade. At the very least, the Texans could likely get a second-round pick this year and a first-rounder next year from the Atlanta Falcons to drop to the sixth overall pick.

The Texans will start by asking for a second- and third-rounder this year and a first-rounder in 2015 along with some midround choices. If they trade down, they probably could get their quarterback -- Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles -- along with having two of the top five picks in the second round and a first-rounder next year. The alternative is taking Clowney and possibly giving up draft choices to trade into the first round to get a quarterback. Making the trade down is more logical.

BB_72
Not every trade will happen like the 2013 Oak-Miami swap. Oakland didn't have a 2nd rd last year due to the Carson Palmer trade and I ran down all the trades in 1st and 2nd rounds. The only two that didn't match up to the Jimmy Johnson chart were Oakland-Miami and Dallas-49er's... all other trades were with 20 pts of value. There is virtually no way to go from #10 to #3 this year, unless Jax GM Caldwell is an idiot (which he isn't), for our 2014 #10 and #45 only or even throwing in our #76. There's a 900 point gap. # = 2200 and #10 = 1300. Next years 1st round, because it's a future pick, is reduced to half of the current point value of our #10 this year or the actual current value of 2014 #45 whichever the team trading down sees as realistic projected 2015 slot... #45 = 450 pts., #76 = 210 pts. With those three picks you're still 240 pts off or an early 2nd rd pick in 2015. You do not get total value for future picks. I think the scenario above, moving from #6 to #1 for this years 1st, 2nd and next years 1st, proves my point, UNLESS Jax will wheel and deal for far less, to which seems unlikely but not impossible.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Here's a list of trades last year and their point values

Oak trades #3 = 2200 pts to Miami for their #12 = 1200 pts. + #42 = 480 pts.

Buf trades #8 = 1400 pts. + #71 = 235 pts. to STL for their #16 = 1000 pts. + #46 = 440 pts. + #78 = 200 pts.

Dal trades #18 =900 pts. to SF for their #31 = 600 pts. + #74 = 220 pts.

Stl trades #22 = 780 pts. to Atl for their #30 = 620 pts. + #92 = 132 pts. + #163 = 26 pts.

NE trades #29 = 640 pts. to Min for their #52 = 380 pts. + #83 = 175 pts. + #102 = 92 pts.

AZ trades #38 = 520 pts. to SD for their #45 = 450 pts. + #110 = 74 pts.

that's a small sample.. Dallas and Oakland both were stupid and desperate last year IMO.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

John Clayton on Buf and Det trying to get a WR and other predictions

3. At least two first-round trades will involve wide receivers. The Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions would love to find a way to land wide receiver Mike Evans, but there is no way he will fall to the ninth and 10th spots. The Buccaneers need a receiver and would have a tough time passing on Evans if he's available at No. 7.

The Lions might be willing to move a couple of spots for Evans, but the Bills might be willing to invest more heavily. It's not out of the question for them to move into the top three or four to get Sammy Watkins. Something will happen up top. Expect the San Francisco 49ers to trade up from No. 30 to get into a spot to get a top receiver. The 49ers have 11 picks, including an extra second and two extra thirds.

4. Four offensive linemen will go in the top 12. The St. Louis Rams will take either Jake Matthews or Greg Robinson with the second pick. Let's say the Rams take Matthews. Either Oakland or Cleveland will get Robinson. If the Falcons can't trade up and don't have a shot at Robinson or Matthews, they will take Taylor Lewan. Next up will be Zack Martin of Notre Dame. If tight end Eric Ebron goes in the top 11, I see Martin going to the Giants at No. 12.

5. Five wide receivers will go in the top 22. Watkins and Evans will likely go in the top seven. Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandin Cooks will go in the mid-teens, possibly to the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets. That could leave Marqise Lee for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have the 22nd pick. But don't forget the 49ers. They know they would have to trade above the Eagles to get one of the top five receivers, and they have the ammunition to make a deal happen.

 

[broncosmitty]

3. At least two first-round trades will involve wide receivers. The Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions would love to find a way to land wide receiver Mike Evans, but there is no way he will fall to the ninth and 10th spots. The Buccaneers need a receiver and would have a tough time passing on Evans if he's available at No. 7.

The Lions might be willing to move a couple of spots for Evans, but the Bills might be willing to invest more heavily. It's not out of the question for them to move into the top three or four to get Sammy Watkins. Something will happen up top. Expect the San Francisco 49ers to trade up from No. 30 to get into a spot to get a top receiver. The 49ers have 11 picks, including an extra second and two extra thirds.

4. Four offensive linemen will go in the top 12. The St. Louis Rams will take either Jake Matthews or Greg Robinson with the second pick. Let's say the Rams take Matthews. Either Oakland or Cleveland will get Robinson. If the Falcons can't trade up and don't have a shot at Robinson or Matthews, they will take Taylor Lewan. Next up will be Zack Martin of Notre Dame. If tight end Eric Ebron goes in the top 11, I see Martin going to the Giants at No. 12.

5. Five wide receivers will go in the top 22. Watkins and Evans will likely go in the top seven. Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandin Cooks will go in the mid-teens, possibly to the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets. That could leave [COLOR=#0000[B]ff]Marqise Lee[/COLOR] for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have the 22nd pick[/B]. But don't forget the 49ers. They know they would have to trade above the Eagles to get one of the top five receivers, and they have the ammunition to make a deal happen.

It's my dream to see a guy cut for supposed gang ties watch as his former club drafts a known gang member. Ohhhh, the irony.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I vote we trade down to #30 with San Fran for their 1st rounder, that extra 2nd rounder, and both of their extra 3rd rounders.

Is that good value- a 2nd and two 3rds to move down 20 spots? Maybe throw in their 2nd rounder next year, too? Idk...

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I vote we trade down to #30 with San Fran for their 1st rounder, that extra 2nd rounder, and both of their extra 3rd rounders.

Is that good value- a 2nd and two 3rds to move down 20 spots? Maybe throw in their 2nd rounder next year, too? Idk...

I have stated numerous times how I would wish for a trade down to 49er's #30 and it's quite simple.

Det #10 = 1300 pts. to SF for their 1st rd #30 = 620 pts. + 2nd rd #56 = 340 pts. + 2nd rd #61 = 292 + 4th rd #129 =43

DET = 1300 pts giving to SF
SF = 1295 pts. giving to DET.... if you want the extra 5 pts you take #242 and #243 each is 2 pts. apiece..
It's close enough.... 1299 to 1300 with the two 7th rounder picks thrown in...

No Way I'd take their two 3rds and the highest 2nd rd being #56...= 340 #76 = 200 pts. #94 = 124...
You can do the math... 340, 200, 124.... + #30 = 620...

 

[broncosmitty]

I vote we trade down to #30 with San Fran for their 1st rounder, that extra 2nd rounder, and both of their extra 3rd rounders.

Is that good value- a 2nd and two 3rds to move down 20 spots? Maybe throw in their 2nd rounder next year, too? Idk...

I've been thinking along those lines, but with sending them Suh rather than #10. The 9ers have picks to burn and are obviously right at the championship level. A player like Suh tips them to dominant, IMO.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I vote we trade down to #30 with San Fran for their 1st rounder, that extra 2nd rounder, and both of their extra 3rd rounders.

Is that good value- a 2nd and two 3rds to move down 20 spots? Maybe throw in their 2nd rounder next year, too? Idk...

This extra 2nd rounder for next year that you throw in is exactly what I was referencing when convo is about Lions trading down. Lions fans always want more in a trade down than what the true absolute value is than what they're willing to give up for a trade up.

I've seen convo's thinking we "only" have to give up our 1st rd #10 and 2nd rd #45 to get to #3 overall. Highly unlikely and especially in this situation with Watkins or Mack being top 3 prospects. You'd still be 450 pts. short of true value which is exactly this years 2nd rd pick at #45, to which you've already traded away. That's why it would take next years 1st rd also, more than likely, because Jax GM Dave Caldwell will say the projection for us next year is in the last 12 slots of the 1st rd as he'd see us as a play-off team 21-32 draft slots are starting value at #21 = 800 to #32 = 590. it then becomes a value of half those numbers in a trade.

Jax #3 = 2200 pts.
Det #10 = 1300 pts + #45 = 450 pts...Total 1750 pts. or 450 pts short.. identical to this years 2nd rd


I noted above most of the trades made last year and they are all extremely close or spot on outside of Dumbasses Reggie McKenzie and Jerry Jones

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I've been thinking along those lines, but with sending them Suh rather than #10. The 9ers have picks to burn and are obviously right at the championship level. A player like Suh tips them to dominant, IMO.

I could see that but they have Kaepernick's contract coming up, unless this alleged sexual assault charges come to fruition. SF is more desperate for a WR than a DT at this moment and could not in any way afford Suh. JMO..

I still think he wants to play closer to home like Oak, SF or Seattle but their out of the question signing Earl Thomas to a 4 yr 40 mil deal and now Sherman to a 4 yr 57.4 mil deal.. Portland (Suh's hometown) is closer to Seattle than Oak or Frisco... We just need to have them, 49er's, scared thinking the NYG might go after Beckham Jr for a trade up.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I'd love to see the Lions trade down. If they don't -- I know the pick wouldn't be extremely popular, as many don't feel any CB's are top 10 worthy.

I'd like to see the Lions draft Darqueze Dennard, if one of the top guys doesn't drop unexpectedly. I keep hearing how the Lions are wanting to blitz more this year, which means our CBs will be asked to play man coverage much more often than in the past. Dennard, IMO, is the best man coverage CB in the draft. He is also a physical CB, who isn't afraid to tackle.

I know he doesn't fit Mayhew's criteria he is looking for in a CB (not that Mayhew's criteria has worked thus far), but I think Dennard would be an immediate upgrade to our secondary and he just seems like a very intelligent player who plays with a chip on his shoulder.

Basically after all these months of looking at players and trying to figure out who the Lions are going to draft. It is now draft day and I don't have a clue what they are going to do and nothing would surprise me.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

It is now draft day and I don't have a clue

That's what Millenhew is saying to himself right now. There has NEVER been a time where I've been more disgusted with this shit ass franchise then I am right now.

No extension for Suh is maddening enough and the worst mgmt job I've ever seen but the idea that we trade away picks to go get a #3 WR (if that comes to fruition) is just blind stupidity.

How did that Super Bowl turn out last year where a record setting offense played a stellar defense? Shouldnt that be a lesson to GM's around the league? Apparently not ours if the things being said in Allen Park are true.

The Lions send some stupid little gift to all their season ticket holders each year. I'm expecting it to be a bottle of KY Jelly this year.

 

[Rollingthndr]

I'd like to see the Lions draft Darqueze Dennard, if one of the top guys doesn't drop unexpectedly.

I watched his 4.5 40 yard dash at the combine and he came off pretty far to the right at first and probably cost him a tenth of a second. He probably has legit 4.4 speed.

His broad jump was a whopping 11'2", very explosive.

Not saying he will be as good but he compares to Darell Revis in all his numbers. Plays aggressively like him as well. I wouldn't cry at all if we drafted him at #10 either.

 

[jayfan]

The Texans will start by asking for a second- and third-rounder this year and a first-rounder in 2015 along with some midround choices. If they trade down, they probably could get their quarterback -- Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles -- along with having two of the top five picks in the second round and a first-rounder next year. The alternative is taking Clowney and possibly giving up draft choices to trade into the first round to get a quarterback. Making the trade down is more logical.

Looks like they're asking for more than that.

Report: Texans asking for three first-rounders, second-rounder for No. 1 pick | SI Wire

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

No extension for Suh is maddening enough and the worst mgmt job I've ever seen but the idea that we trade away picks to go get a #3 WR (if that comes to fruition) is just blind stupidity.

I couldn't agree more with the comments about trading away picks to draft a WR. I'm on the fence about Suh, only because, we don't have any idea what he is asking for from Detroit. If he is asking to be the highest paid defensive player -- I don't blame the Lions for not getting the extension done, as NO DT deserves to be the highest paid defensive player. IMO -- the offer should look exactly like his 1st deal. 12 million per -- he is still the highest paid DT and it doesn't hurt the Lions cap situation. Anything more than that -- Detroit is overpaying him.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Looks like they're asking for more than that.

Only way the Texans are getting 3 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder is if Andrew Luck is entering the draft again this year. No chance they get that type of haul without a franchise QB at the top of the draft.

 

[jayfan]

Only way the Texans are getting 3 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder is if Andrew Luck is entering the draft again this year. No chance they get that type of haul without a franchise QB at the top of the draft.

To me, it's a sign that they're not really interested in trading out of the spot.

 

[LPinSLC]

To me, it's a sign that they're not really interested in trading out of the spot.

It's a barttering tactic. You start high for wiggle room. If you start low you're selling yourself short.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Looks like they're asking for more than that.

Report: Texans asking for three first-rounders, second-rounder for No. 1*pick | SI Wire

Good luck getting that

 

[tpaulus_2]

I watched his 4.5 40 yard dash at the combine and he came off pretty far to the right at first and probably cost him a tenth of a second. He probably has legit 4.4 speed.

His broad jump was a whopping 11'2", very explosive.

Not saying he will be as good but he compares to Darell Revis in all his numbers. Plays aggressively like him as well. I wouldn't cry at all if we drafted him at #10 either.

He wouldn't be my first choice (Aaron Donald would) but I think he's the best CB in the draft. I also think our defense could use the best corner in the draft...