4/28 GDT Child Molesters @ Freak

[gp956]

Holy shit! I did a reverse jinx and didn't even know it...

Reading the thread after the fact, I understood how Belt finally came through in the clutch. The power of CC compels you...

 

[Mays-Fan]

A good and gutty win against a very good pitcher, albeit against the Padres, showing yet again we can come from behind, and hold it.

Timmeh coming around nicely, even without his best stuff.

Belt continuing to step up, and with Huff's admission clearing the air so to speak, we take a big step toward firming up our first base transition.

Casilla showing he can carry Weezy's mantle, and everyone gains confidence in that transition.

Aside from Casilla, the bullpen got a nice rest.

 

[msgkings322]

Timmy says to msg "I ain't dead yet"

And I love it.

But I'm still of the opinion that he is in transition, it doesn't take a hater to say he's changing from power pitcher to command pitcher. And thus I still feel Cain is now and going forward the better overall guy.

Remember, Tim was pitching at home (pitchers park) against one of the worst offensive teams in the game. Look at Phil Humber: perfect game in Seattle, then shelled next start at home (hitters park) vs Boston.

So Timmy = awesome pitcher still, and my favorite healthy player. But 2008-9 Timmy? He gone.

And the Dodgers keep on doing what they do...

 

[Mays-Fan]

Timmy says to msg "I ain't dead yet"

And I love it.

But I'm still of the opinion that he is in transition, it doesn't take a hater to say he's changing from power pitcher to command pitcher. And thus I still feel Cain is now and going forward the better overall guy.

Remember, Tim was pitching at home (pitchers park) against one of the worst offensive teams in the game. Look at Phil Humber: perfect game in Seattle, then shelled next start at home (hitters park) vs Boston.

So Timmy = awesome pitcher still, and my favorite healthy player. But 2008-9 Timmy? He gone.

And the Dodgers keep on doing what they do...

Completely agree. The FO is wise to delay re-signing him as long as possible. Sadly, our best move with him is likely to trade him to some team that needs a SP in the heat of a race and is willing to overpay. Presumably it would be for some combination of position player(s) and/or prospect(s). Fans here would be wise to prepare themselves for this eventuality, IMO.

But then again, my opinion is worth every penny I am getting for it. LOL.

 

[calsnowskier]

Hypothetical...


A team calls TODAY offering 2 top-50 prospects for Timmeh.

Do you accept?

 

[msgkings322]

Completely agree. The FO is wise to delay re-signing him as long as possible. Sadly, our best move with him is likely to trade him to some team that needs a SP in the heat of a race and is willing to overpay. Presumably it would be for some combination of position player(s) and/or prospect(s). Fans here would be wise to prepare themselves for this eventuality, IMO.

But then again, my opinion is worth every penny I am getting for it. LOL.

He's not going anywhere this year. Next year will be dependent on a lot of variables. If we're not contending next July, I think he gets dealt for as much as we can bring. But if we are right there and he's pitching well, I don't think you can just give up on the year and one of your foundational guys. It's more than numbers here, this ain't a video game. Think of the message to the fans and the team.

 

[msgkings322]

Hypothetical...


A team calls TODAY offering 2 top-50 prospects for Timmeh.

Do you accept?

See my answer above...no way no how, this year.

 

[Mays-Fan]

He's not going anywhere this year. Next year will be dependent on a lot of variables. If we're not contending next July, I think he gets dealt for as much as we can bring. But if we are right there and he's pitching well, I don't think you can just give up on the year and one of your foundational guys. It's more than numbers here, this ain't a video game. Think of the message to the fans and the team.

While I tend to agree, I never say never. There are plausible scenarios where I think you make the right deal.

For example, if come mid-July, he is 6-8, with a 4.34 ERA, and his innings and velocity are down and not trending well, and we were looking for an OF bat, and the Yankees offered Swisher or Grandy and a top pitching prospect, you would have to look very hard at that deal.

 

[msgkings322]

While I tend to agree, I never say never. There are plausible scenarios where I think you make the right deal.

For example, if come mid-July, he is 6-8, with a 4.34 ERA, and his innings and velocity are down and not trending well, and we were looking for an OF bat, and the Yankees offered Swisher or Grandy and a top pitching prospect, you would have to look very hard at that deal.

See, but, Grandy (especially) or Swisher + a top pitching prospect is no where near the offer we'd get for the 6-8 4.34 Tim. Especially with the trending down peripherals you describe. And let's be frank, his velocity IS down, probably for good. On that single point, ol' inoutrepeat was right but very early.

I don't see any realistic scenario where he gets traded this year.

 

[Mays-Fan]

See, but, Grandy (especially) or Swisher + a top pitching prospect is no where near the offer we'd get for the 6-8 4.34 Tim. Especially with the trending down peripherals you describe. And let's be frank, his velocity IS down, probably for good. On that single point, ol' inoutrepeat was right but very early.

I don't see any realistic scenario where he gets traded this year.

True, but, it was just one example of dozens of potential scenarios.

To be more general, there is a market for baseball players. Every team has an Ask price for each of their players, a price at which they would "sell" that player. Every other team has a Bid price on every player on every team in the league, a price at which they would "buy" that player.

At some point, for various relative reasons and perceptions, a team's Ask price for a particular player is met or exceeded by another teams Bid price for that same player. That is when deals happen.

All I'm saying is that there may well be a scenario where some team is willing to pay a high enough price to trade for Timmeh, and that our Ask may be lowered based on our perceptions and ability to hold him. Because the longer we wait, another team's Bid price will get lower and lower because they know that the closer we get to Nov 1, 2013 and Timmeh is willing to go FA, our return for him plummets.

 

[msgkings322]

True, but, it was just one example of dozens of potential scenarios.

To be more general, there is a market for baseball players. Every team has an Ask price for each of their players, a price at which they would "sell" that player. Every other team has a Bid price on every player on every team in the league, a price at which they would "buy" that player.

At some point, for various relative reasons and perceptions, a team's Ask price for a particular player is met or exceeded by another teams Bid price for that same player. That is when deals happen.

All I'm saying is that there may well be a scenario where some team is willing to pay a high enough price to trade for Timmeh, and that our Ask may be lowered based on our perceptions and ability to hold him. Because the longer we wait, another team's Bid price will get lower and lower because they know that the closer we get to Nov 1, 2013 and Timmeh is willing to go FA, our return for him plummets.

Agreed, I understand the bid-ask idea, and I'm reiterating I see no plausible way any bid will be enough to meet our ask this year.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Agreed, I understand the bid-ask idea, and I'm reiterating I see no plausible way any bid will be enough to meet our ask this year.

Agreed as well with your points, and I don't think it's likely either, but I'm just a little higher on the plausibility scale than you are.

Repped for good discussion.

 

[mistgl]

Hypothetical...


A team calls TODAY offering 2 top-50 prospects for Timmeh.

Do you accept?

Depends on whats offered.

If the Tigers called and were offering Turner and Smyly, then the answer is yes. I would only trade Tim this year for prospects who are in the MLB, or MLB ready.

 

[tzill]

Hypothetical...


A team calls TODAY offering 2 top-50 prospects for Timmeh.

Do you accept?

Hell no.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Hypothetical...

A team calls TODAY offering 2 top-50 prospects for Timmeh.

Do you accept?

It depends on who is offered. If it's Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, then yeah. HELL yeah.

 

[msgkings322]

Agreed as well with your points, and I don't think it's likely either, but I'm just a little higher on the plausibility scale than you are.

Repped for good discussion.

Back atcha if I can

 

[SFAnthem]

See, but, Grandy (especially) or Swisher + a top pitching prospect is no where near the offer we'd get for the 6-8 4.34 Tim. Especially with the trending down peripherals you describe. And let's be frank, his velocity IS down, probably for good. On that single point, ol' inoutrepeat was right but very early.

I don't see any realistic scenario where he gets traded this year.

Yet you dismiss the ridiculous amount of times where he was wrong. Dude was a subscriber to the stopped clock theory.

Predict injury or moments of failure for any pitcher and many times you will eventually come up "right". What isn't known is whether his success is sustainable with the velocity changes.

Matt Cain was throwing mid to high 90s too when he first came up. Now, he rarely goes above 92. Remember when people were saying he wasnt an elite pitcher?

If May and June are like April, then color me worried, otherwise it's just the highs and lows that come from pitchers.

 

[gp956]

Yet you dismiss the ridiculous amount of times where he was wrong. Dude was a subscriber to the stopped clock theory.

Predict injury or moments of failure for any pitcher and many times you will eventually come up "right". What isn't known is whether his success is sustainable with the velocity changes.

Matt Cain was throwing mid to high 90s too when he first came up. Now, he rarely goes above 92. Remember when people were saying he wasnt an elite pitcher?

If May and June are like April, then color me worried, otherwise it's just the highs and lows that come from pitchers.

Timmy's lost velocity seems to be all about changing mechanics, which is itself due, perhaps, to a maturing body. If he can work back in the 92 range, i.e. 90-95, sometime this year, then we can be safe in thinking his velocity issues are purely mechanical.