3rd and Long

[jedburks]

As we all know, Nebraska has had an issue with 3rd and long situations. Typically 3rd and "long" means 7 yards or more. I embarked on a long journey to see if this was a huge problem compared to other programs across the country and how Nebraska stacked up. I started my search at Bo's first year, 2008. I figured out the top 20 teams based on winning percentage over the last 4 years. Then I went through the play by play charts of every single game for those 20 teams over the last 4 years. Here are the top 20 teams I looked at.

1. Boise St
2. TCU
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Utah
6. Oklahoma St
7. Oklahoma
8. LSU
9. USC
10. Virginia Tech
11. Florida
12. Wisconsin
13. BYU
14. Penn St (I don't care that their wins are vacated. The games were still played.)
15. Texas
16. Cincinnati
17. West Virginia
18. Stanford
19. Nebraska
20. Michigan St

Now I broke the numbers down by seasons, 4 year total, and 2 year splits (2010 & 2011 together and then 2008 & 2009 together). Then ranked them accordingly. This is going to get REALLY long and probably completely stupid and pointless but this is what I do. Yes, I need a fucking woman!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked in the 4 year total.
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.
1. TCU- 35.5
30.1 (7)

2. Stanford- 39.14
31.64 (3)

3. Wisconsin- 40.47
26.83 (17)

4. Alabama- 41.12
28.9 (10)

5. Boise St- 41.3
28.6 (14)

6. BYU- 42.72
33.75 (1)

7. USC- 44.17
27.08 (16)

8. Oklahoma St- 45.08
29.80 (9)

9. Texas- 45.19
30.02 (8)

10. Virginia Tech- 45.7
30.19 (6)

11. Nebraska- 46.66
27.73 (15)

12. LSU- 46.83
24.84 (19)

13. Penn St- 46.87
31.88 (2)

14. Oklahoma- 47.43
31.48 (5)

15. Florida- 47.52
28.7 (13)

16. Michigan St- 49.58
28.72 (12)

17. Utah- 49.93
21.32 (20)

18. Oregon- 50.06
25.20 (18)

19. West Virginia- 50.89
31.53 (4)

20. Cincinnati- 53.43
28.77 (11)

 

[chucksker]

thank you Jed, i love shit like this. i just don't have the time to do it.

you should look at 3rd and long conversion rates for offense and defense...granted that would take even longer

 

[Papalou]

As we all know, Nebraska has had an issue with 3rd and long situations. Typically 3rd and "long" means 7 yards or more. I embarked on a long journey to see if this was a huge problem compared to other programs across the country and how Nebraska stacked up. I started my search at Bo's first year, 2008. I figured out the top 20 teams based on winning percentage over the last 4 years. Then I went through the play by play charts of every single game for those 20 teams over the last 4 years. Here are the top 20 teams I looked at.

1. Boise St
2. TCU
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Utah
6. Oklahoma St
7. Oklahoma
8. LSU
9. USC
10. Virginia Tech
11. Florida
12. Wisconsin
13. BYU
14. Penn St (I don't care that their wins are vacated. The games were still played.)
15. Texas
16. Cincinnati
17. West Virginia
18. Stanford
19. Nebraska
20. Michigan St

Now I broke the numbers down by seasons, 4 year total, and 2 year splits (2010 & 2011 together and then 2008 & 2009 together). Then ranked them accordingly. This is going to get REALLY long and probably completely stupid and pointless but this is what I do. Yes, I need a fucking woman!!!!!!!!!!!

Jed you poor bastard, just go out and get a hooker for the night.

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked in 2011
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.

1. TCU- 26
33.3 (5)

2. Stanford- 26.28
39.13 (1)

3. Wisconsin- 38.23
32.3 (7)

4. Oklahoma St- 39.67
31.5 (12)

5. Boise St- 40
32.8 (6)

6. Alabama- 41.45
33.75 (4)

7. USC- 41.61
32.25 (8)

8. Oklahoma- 43
31.32 (13)

9. LSU- 43.52
28.37 (15)

10. Texas- 43.68
24.44 (18)

11. Michigan St- 44.55
35.55 (2)

12. Virginia Tech- 44.87
34.78 (3)

13. BYU- 47.64
31.86 (11)

14. Nebraska- 47.93
29.03 (14)

15. Oregon- 48.64
22.22 (19)

16. Penn St- 51.04
25.51 (16)

17. West Virginia- 53.88
31.95 (10)

18. Cincinnati- 54.64
32 (9)

19. Florida- 54.71
25.28 (17)

20. Utah- 55
19.19 (20)

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked in 2010
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.

1. Wisconsin- 33.79
34.69 (5)

2. TCU- 37.5
36.6 (2)

3. Stanford- 37.79
43.07 (1)

4. Boise St- 39.2
35.4 (4)

5. BYU- 40.7
28.39 (11)

6. Alabama- 43.7
27.27 (14)

7. Texas- 43.75
22.61 (19)

8. Nebraska- 45.31
27.58 (13)

9. USC- 45.5
25.92 (15)

10. Oklahoma- 45.71
27.67 (12)

11. Oklahoma St- 46.28
30.86 (7)

12. LSU- 47.54
20.68 (20)

13. Penn St- 47.61
24.4 (16)

14. Oregon- 49.7
30.43 (8)

15. Virginia Tech- 50
31.11 (6)

16. Florida- 50.58
29.06 (10)

17. Utah- 50.85
23.59 (17)

18. Michigan St- 53.57
23.33 (18)

19. Cincinnati- 54.38
35.48 (3)

20. West Virginia- 56.78
30.08 (9)

 

[chucksker]

wow 47% of our 3rd downs were 7+?!?! thats no bueno

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked in 2009
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.

1. BYU- 40.82
40.57 (1)

2. Boise St- 41.1
27.7 (9)

3. Alabama- 41.53
27.63 (10)

4. Florida- 41.8
27.02 (12)

5. Penn St- 42.85
34.61 (3)

6. Virginia Tech- 43.6
32 (5)

7. Nebraska- 43.78
15.9 (20)

8. Oklahoma St- 45.25
24.69 (15)

9. TCU- 46.4
21.9 (17)

10. Wisconsin- 46.92
27.38 (11)

11. Texas- 48.09
30.69 (7)

12. Utah- 50.26
20.21 (19)

13. Stanford- 50.31
31.64 (6)

14. Cincinnati- 50.7
27.77 (8)

15. Michigan St- 50.88
34.88 (2)

16. LSU- 51.25
26.82 (13)

17. Oregon- 51.7
24.13 (16)

18. West Virginia- 52.02
25.55 (14)

19. USC- 52.86
21.68 (18)

20. Oklahoma- 54.95
32.43 (4)

 

[FNG]

Great info and stats Jed

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked in 2008
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.

1. TCU- 36.2
30.3 (9)

2. USC- 36.9
30.64 (8)

3. Alabama- 38.34
27.02 (10)

4. West Virginia- 40.11
26.76 (11)

5. BYU- 41.47
35.61 (4)

6. Wisconsin- 41.57
16.21 (19)

7. Florida- 43.47
34.28 (6)

8. Utah- 43.64
22.78 (15)

9. Stanford- 44
15.15 (20)

10. Virginia Tech- 44.54
23.40 (14)

11. Boise St- 44.9
20 (17)

12. Texas- 45.08
43.58 (2)

13. LSU- 45.35
24.09 (12)

14. Penn st- 45.66
45.56 (1)

15. Oklahoma- 46.19
35.16 (5)

16. Nebraska- 50
38.20 (3)

16. Oklahoma St- 50
32.46 (7)

18. Michigan St- 50.26
21.87 (16)

19. Oregon- 50.27
23.91 (13)

20. Cincinnati- 53.44
19.35 (18)

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked combining 2010 & 2011.
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.

1. TCU- 30.76
35 (2)

2. Stanford- 31.98
41.44 (1)

3. Wisconsin- 36.19
33.33 (5)

4. Boise St- 39.63
34.09 (3)

5. Alabama- 42.44
30.82 (9)

6. Oklahoma St- 42.89
31.16 (7)

7. Texas- 43.71
23.56 (19)

8. USC- 43.73
28.67 (13)

9. BYU- 44.10
30.23 (10)

10. Oklahoma- 44.52
29.23 (12)

11. LSU- 45.60
24.22 (18)

12. Nebraska- 46.63
28.33 (14)

13. Virginia Tech- 47.27
32.96 (6)

14. Michigan St- 48.64
29.44 (11)

15. Oregon- 49.18
26.37 (16)

16. Penn St- 49.34
25 (17)

17. Florida- 52.58
27.16 (15)

18. Utah- 52.95
21.27 (20)

19. Cincinnati- 54.51
33.67 (4)

20. West Virginia- 55.4
30.95 (8)

 

[jedburks]

This is how they ranked combining 2009 &2008.
This is the percentage of times they had 3rd and 7+ on their 3rd down situations. Obviously the fewer amount of times that happened the better. The second number is how many times they converted those 3rd down situations and the ranking of that number among the 20 teams.

1. Alabama- 39.94
27.09 (10)

2. TCU- 40.53
26.31 (11)

3. BYU- 41.15
38.02 (2)

4. Florida- 42.6
30.55 (5)

5. Boise St- 42.98
23.80 (18)

6. Virginia Tech- 44.12
27.21 (9)

7. Penn St- 44.22
40.12 (1)

8. Wisconsin- 44.25
22.15 (20)

9. USC- 44.61
25.51 (13)

10. West Virginia- 46
26.08 (12)

11. Nebraska- 46.7
28.33 (7)

12. Texas- 46.73
36.31 (3)

13. Utah- 47.01
25.43 (15)

14. Stanford- 47.23
24.13 (16)

15. Oklahoma St- 47.44
28.48 (6)

16. LSU- 48.10
25.45 (14)

17. Michigan St- 50.55
28.02 (8)

18. Oklahoma- 50.62
33.66 (4)

19. Oregon- 50.99
24.02 (17)

20. Cincinnati- 52.21
23.03 (19)

 

[Red_Alert]

Stanford converted a good percentage of them. Hence Luck being NFL

 

[jedburks]

thank you Jed, i love shit like this. i just don't have the time to do it.

you should look at 3rd and long conversion rates for offense and defense...granted that would take even longer

Yeah, about half way through it I thought about that. This took me FOREVER to go through. Not sure I have the energy to go through that again.

 

[jedburks]

Jed you poor bastard, just go out and get a hooker for the night.

Your telling me!!!! But I need to have money to be able to do that!!!! Care to donate?

 

[jedburks]

Stanford converted a good percentage of them. Hence Luck being NFL

Look at the difference between Stanford with Luck as a junior and senior (11 & 10) and Luck as a sophomore and without Luck (09 &08). 41.44 & 24.13

VERY impressive!!!!

 

[jedburks]

Also, really weird that Nebraska converted the exact same percentage (28.33) of those 3rd downs with Taylor at QB the last 2 years as without Taylor the previous 2 years. 1 ranks 7th and the other ranks 14th. Strange.

 

[Red_Alert]

I've been meaning to crunch some #'s on Martinez out of curiosity and keep putting it off. It will be time consuming, but you've motivated me to do it.

 

[HuskerPower52]

Thanks Jed

 

[Red_Alert]

Also, really weird that Nebraska converted the exact same percentage (28.33) of those 3rd downs with Taylor at QB the last 2 years as without Taylor the previous 2 years. 1 ranks 7th and the other ranks 14th. Strange.

Also think about general 'style of football' being played in conferences.

For instance...Big 12 had 4 teams in the top 7 in 08/09