2024 Rule 5 Draft

[LHG]

The Rule 5 Draft is one of my favorite hot stove events. I think because it is so obscure to most baseball fans and it gives some players a chance to make the big leagues. Plus, its fun to think about who may become a hidden gem for a new team and the strategy behind who gets protected from the draft by their organizations. So, while conversation has already been going on here about who may get protected, I thought I'd do my annual list of players eligible for the draft and speculate who may be likely to get protected by the Giants. I'll start here by listing the minor league free agents for the Giants this offseason. If the organization chooses to re-sign any of these guys, they would have to decide whether they want to protect them from the draft since they would all be eligible. It is not unprecedented to see a major league team draft a recently signed minor league free agent but it doesn't happen often. And while some teams will lure a minor league free agent by adding him to the 40 man roster, it is unlikely the Giants will do that with any of these players (please note that I sometimes get the year of free agency wrong on some international signings so I'm not sure if Castillo, Perez, Rordriguez, Sanchez, Bericoto, Toribio, Pomares and Suarez are free agents this year or next year. Also, some guys like del Pozo and Olivarez were signed while injured so they may be on two year minor league deals):
Pitchers (19)
Tanner Andrews, Raymond Burgos, Wilkelma Castillo, Seth Corry, Miguel del Pozo, Blayne Enlow, Matt Frisbee, Justin Garza, Clay Helvey, Spencer Howard, Tanner Kiest, Helcris Olivarez, Jose Perez, Blake Rivera, Julio Rodriguez, Tommy Romero, Juan Sanchez, Drew Strotman, Thomas Szapucki
Catchers (3)
Braden Frankfort, Andrew Knapp, Jakson Reetz
Infielders (5)
Victor Bericoto, 1b-rf-cf-lf; Trenton Brooks, 1b-lf; Thairo Estrada, 2b; Dariel Lopez, 3b-ss-2b; Luis Toribio, 3b-1b
Outfielders (5)
Yusniel Diaz, rf-lf; Ismael Munguia, lf-rf-cf; Chase Pinder, cf-rf-lf; Jairo Pomares, rf-lf; Alexander Suarez, lf-rf-cf

 

[LHG]

Players in their third and final year of Rule 5 eligibility before minor league free agency (all have been available for this draft the previous 2 years except for Ingram and Waites as they've been on 40 man rosters previously):
Pitchers (7)
Kolten Ingram, rp; Nick Morreale, rp; Kanoa Pagan, rp; Michael Stryffeler, rp; Cole Waites, rp; Josh Wolf, rp; Chris Wright, rp
Styffeler, Waites and Wright all missed the 2024 season due to injuries/surgeries.
Ingram was briefly on the 40 man roster, after bouncing around 3 other teams this season, before getting dfa'd by the Giants.
Morreale had a good season (2.89 ERA, 1.123 WHIP in 26 relief appearances and 8 starts between Eugene and Richmond) but will be 27 at the start of 2025.
Pagan pitched for the first time in 3 years, mainly in San Jose and looked rusty (7.71 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 10 appearances before being put on the dreaded developmental list at the end of the year)
Wolf is a castoff from another organization and didn't do too well in A ball this year (4.41 ERA, 1.551 WHIP in 32 appearances across rookie, low A and high A ball).

Catchers (0)
None

Infielders (2)
Christian Koss, ss-2b-3b-lf-cf; Will Wilson, ss-3b-2b
Koss may have the best shot on making the 40 man roster among this group. He posted a combined .376 OBP, .496 SLG between AA and AAA.
Wilson (.299 OBG, .296 SLG between AA and AAA) has struggled tremendously in the past couple of years and is closer to being released than being protected.

Outfielders (1)
Hunter Bishop, cf-lf-rf
The former first round pick has made it to AAA in spite of himself. His combined .315 OBP, .380 SLG between AA and AAA is wholly uninspiring and will likely keep him from being added to the 40 man roster.

 

[LHG]

Players who weren't protected last year, in their first year of eligibility to be drafted (I'll list names for each position and then put their highest level in 2024, age for 2025 and some stats):
Pitchers (13)
RJ Dabovich, rp; Marlon Franco, sp; Nick Garcia, rp; Wil Jensen, rp; Mikell Manzano, rp; Manuel Mercedes, sp; Ryan Murphy, sp; Ruben Ortiz, rp; Carson Ragsdale, sp; Nick Swiney, rp; Esmerlin Vincio, sp; Ryan Watson, rp; Ty Weber, rp
Dabovich - AAA, 26; 10.38 ERA, 2.769 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in only 4 games in another injury shortened season
Garcia - AAA, 25; 3.30 ERA, 1.465 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 42 games between AA and AAA
Jensen - AAA, 27; 3.74 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 37 games between AA and AAA
Ragsdale - AAA, 26; 4.18 ERA, 1.351 WHIP 8.8 K/9 in 26 starts combined in AA and AAA
Watson - AAA, 27; 2.83 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 28 games between low A, AA and AAA combined. Late season acquisition from Orioles
Murphy - AA, 25; 3.35 ERA, 1.233 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 11 starts (before injury ended season early)
Swiney - AA, 25; 5.25 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 41 games
Manzano - high A, 22; 3.99 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 18 games between ACL Giants, San Jose and Eugene
Mercedes - high A, 22; 5.28 ERA, 1.569 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 25 starts
Vinicio - high A, 22; 4.72 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 25 games (11 starts) between San Jose and Eugene
Weber - high A, 26; did not pitch in 2024 and got knocked around in 2023 (8.82 ERA, 1.867 WHIP in 16 games)Franco - DSL, 22; 9 starts (12 games), 1.65 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 8.4 K/9; good numbers but a bit old for a DSL pitcher
Ortiz - DSL, 22; Has not pitched since the Giants signed him in 2019. For some reason, they keep him on restricted lists every year

Catchers (0)
None

Infielders (2)
Brett Auerbach, 2b-3b-lf-rf-c; Jimm Glowenke, 2b-3b-ss
Auerbach - AAA, 27; .346 OBP, .410 SLG in 297 plate appearances between AA and AAA
Glowenke - AA, 25; .300 OBP, .309 SLG in 392 plate appearances

Outfielders (1)
Allan Cerda, cf-lf-rf; AA, 25; .289 OBP, .434 SLG in 121 plate appearances between low A and AA. Cast off from the Reds and dealt with injuries.

 

[calsnowskier]

Since I have paid attention to the Rule V protection process (20 years?), I don’t remember a single season where we couldn’t identify a single prospect that was a no-doubt protection candidate.

Thanks Farhan.

 

[LHG]

Finally, the players who will be eligible for the 1st time to be drafted in the Rule 5 draft:
Pitchers (17)
Will Bednar, sp; Hunter Dula, rp; Junior Flores, rp; Evan Gates, rp; Jose Gonzalez, sp; Seth Lonsway, sp; Matt Mikulski, rp; Juan Morillo, rp; Tyler Myrick, rp; Mat Olsen, rp; Brayan Palencia, rp; Carson Seymour, sp; Nick Sinacola, sp; Brett Standlee, rp; Fernando Vasquez, rp; Ian Villers, rp; Nick Zwack, sp
Dula - AAA, 26; 4.19 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 35 games across the 3 highest minor league teams
Gates - AAA, 26; 4.22 ERA, 1.422 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 39 games between AA and AAA
Myrick - AAA, 26; 4.06 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 47 games between AA and AAA
Seymour - AAA, 26; 4.82 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 28 games (23 starts)
Sinacola - AAA, 25; 3.56 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 25 games (17 starts) between AA and AAA
Bednar - AA, 24; 6.00 ERA, 1.593 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 32 games (13 starts) between San Jose, Eugene and Richmond
Lonsway - AA, 26; 3.01 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 22 starts between Eugene and Richmond
Olsen - AA, 24; 4.02 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 25 games
Zwack - AA, 26; did not pitch in 2024, posted a 6.56 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 24 games (16 starts) in 2023
Mikulski - HA, 25; 5.58 ERA, 1.626 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 37 games
Standlee - HA, 26; did not pitch in 2024, posted a 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 with Eugene in 2023
Flores - LA, 23; 5.03 ERA, 1.733 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 32 games
Palencia - LA, 22; 3.11 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 20 games (1 of which was at rookie ball)
Villers - LA, 24; 5.29 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 30 games
Gonzalez - DSL, 22; 6.94 ERA, 1.600 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 11 games (8 starts)
Morillo - DSL, 22; did not pitch in 2024, posted a 5.14 ERA, 1.952 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 in 2023 in the DSL
Vasquez - DSL, 23; has not pitched since 2021 but has still been kept on DSL rosters. He was on the 60 day IL this year.

Catchers (3)
Onil Perez, Adrian Sugastey, Andy Thomas
Sugastey - AA, 22; .333 OBP, .323 SLG in 191 plate appearances
Thomas - AA, 26; .313 OBP, .312 SLG in 432 plate appearances
Perez - HA, 22; .334 OBP, .303 SLG in 350 plate appearances

Infielders (5)
Aeverson Arteaga, ss; Victor Coroni, 1b-c; Juan Francisco, 2b-1b-3b; Jose Ramos, 2b-3b-1b-lf-ss; Elian Rayo, 3b-2b-1b
Francisco - AAA, 22; .286 OBP, .296 SLG in 154 plate appearances (all but 17 in San Jose)
Arteaga - HA, 22; .308 OBP, .319 SLG in 104 plate appearances in rookie and high A ball (after lengthly stint on IL)
Rayo - LA, 22; .328 OBP, .356 SLG in 305 plate appearances
Ramos - R, 22; .426 OBP, .384 SLG in 177 plate appearances
Coronil - DSL, 21; has not played since 2022, where he posted a 282 OPS in 71 plate appearances in the DSL

Outfielders (5)
Vaun Brown, cf-rf-lf; Estanlin Cassiani, cf-lf-rf; Rodolfo Nolasco, lf-rf; Cesar Quintas, rf-cf-lf; Samuel Reyes, rf-lf
Brown - AA, 26; .228 OBP, .286 SLG in 212 plate appearances between ACL, San Jose and Richmond
Nolasco - HA, 23; .315 OBP, .389 SLG in 362 plate appearances (including his time in the Pirates' organization)
Cassiani - LA, 22; .289 OBP, .248 SLG in 253 plate appearances
Quintas - LA, 22; .321 OBP, .386 SLG in 440 plate appearances
Reyes - LA, 22; did not play in 2024; posted a .478 OBP and .432 SLG in 46 plate appearances in the ACL in 2023

 

[LHG]

Since I have paid attention to the Rule V protection process (20 years?), I don’t remember a single season where we couldn’t identify a single prospect that was a no-doubt protection candidate.

Thanks Farhan.

To be fair, some guys were called up this year who would be part of this conversation. However, would Mason Black and Landen Roupp really have made a difference in the conversation?

 

[LHG]

Looking over these 4 lists, here is what I see in each group:
Minor league free agents - I don't see any of these players being realistic candidates to be re-signed to major league deals. The Giants have passed on many of them for multiple years and others have bounced through multiple organizations.
Class of 2022 - Christian Koss is new to the organization and put up good enough numbers as a middle infielder at the highest levels of the organization but he will be 27 years old when the 2025 season opens.
Class of 2023 - Nick Garcia is young (for this group) and held his own in AA and AAA; Carson Ragsdale has a bit of prospect pedigree and shaken some rust off after some injury marred seasons; Ryan Murphy looked promising in AA before going down with an inury; Brett Auerbach hit well in AAA and plays multiple positions; but Garcia has pitched in other organizations, Ragsdale will be 26 years old next year, Murphy seems a bit buried in the org and Auerbach only got a bit of playing time in AAA (after a rough couple of years in AA) before getting injured.
Class of 2024 - The highlights for me are Nick Sinacola, Adrian Sugastey and Aeverson Arteaga

My short list of the 5 most likely players to be protected are:
Brett Auerbach
Aeverson Arteaga
Nick Sinacola
Adrian Sugastey
Carson Seymour

None are standouts and it is quite possible that none get protected but here are the reasons I think these are the 5 most likely:
Auerbach - He had a good spring training in 2023 and the team seemed high on him. He plays a lot of positions and showed some good hitting in AAA. Now FZ is gone from the org (Auerbach was the poster child for FZ's favorites - middle infielder who catches too) but there is still some value in his versatility
Arteaga - He was injured most of the year and couldn't quite get the bat going when he did get some playing time toward the end of the year but he is young (will be 22 in 2025) and looked like a rising prospect in 2023.
Sinacola - I think the combination of his age (25 in 2025) and his numbers (some of the better in the high minors within the Giants' org) combine to make him valuable enough that other teams may try to grab him.
Sugastey - A young catcher (22) who hit well when he was healthy enough to play and in a league (AA) that tends to suppress hitting. He seems a good bet to need protection.
Seymour - Not excited about this one but there seems to be some thought that the Giants like him.