My annual QB assessments

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers​

Justin Fields, Ohio State Buckeyes​

• 1. Let me begin with this.. If Justin Fields was the first QB drafted my concerns about his health would be no different than what I wrote about Trevor Lawrence. Fortunately for him, he won’t be and as such, I believe that he (Fields) is actually the best QB in this draft, in fact, I’m sure of it. Cutting the field in half and asking his QB’s to rely upon that one read isn’t a hallmark of the Ryan Day offense. In fact, Justin Fields was asked to do more full field reads in Day’s offense than any of the other QB’s in this draft combined. This alone makes him more NFL ready than the rest. Add to that the possibility of going to San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan and we’re probably looking at the OROY. Being the best QB in this draft IMO doesn’t mean that he is without on field flaws either. There are a lot of mixed messages going around about Fields; most I believe are either related to “character” concerns that pop up with certain players and a legacy of failed Ohio State QB’s at the professional level. Beyond these, which I completely dismiss, my concerns are with his ability to throw receivers open. He needs some work on that and a little on manipulating defenders with his eyes. I cannot say for certain because there just wasn’t enough of a sample size, but I did notice on a few occasions that his receivers slowed a bit on deep passes. Understanding NFL defenses and especially blitz packages is something that ALL new QB’s must learn to recognize and I include Lawrence and Fields in that group. Beyond these, there were many times that questions floated around about who’s better, Lawrence or Fields, I don’t think that those comparisons were without reasonable assessment and it’s not unthinkable to make that comparison now. Ranking them is difficult and the difference isn’t greater than a coin toss.

Trey Lance, North Dakota State Bison​

Zach Wilson, BYU Cougars​

Mac Jones, Alabama Crimson Tide​

skinsdad62 said:

Wont be debating this much other then to say 3 of the top 5 most likely will fail and when considering a trade up that has to be taken into account

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Stymietee said:

A bit of caution before I begin... There’s considerable risk when drafting QB’s into the NFL. You never know what you’re getting no matter how good or concerning these evaluations are. That said; let’s begin with the more widely publicized ones.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers​

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 36
Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 220

1A.___ Well what’s there to say about this guy that hasn’t been covered? He has all of the prototypical intangibles, and is almost the consensus top QB in this draft, except for me he isn’t the best of the lot this year. I watched a lot of film on all of these guys looking for that negative stuff that tends to get overlooked during this time and almost didn’t find it until I remembered something that I said about last year’s #1 consensus pick. That’s right, my assessment of Joe Burrow led me to the same conclusion about Trevor Lawrence, this time my concern is heightened because of Lawrence’s build and the team that he’s destined to play for. Like Burrow, Jacksonville will have to protect him and that’s going to take time. Unlike Burrow, Lawrence is a rather lanky guy and subject to feeling those hits in ways that didn’t hurt Burrow as much as they will him. There are other on the field concerns as well, among them are his lack of experience at reading the entire field because of the type of offense that was used at Clemson. We will see if he’s as adapt and able to do this as did Watson who also played in that system. I didn’t notice any slides in his game when forced to run lending to that high risk injury possibility mentioned earlier. There’s this little hitch in his passing motion but he’s gotten away with it thus far and it’s possible that it’s nothing to be that concerned about considering that it’s not a new development. He doesn’t prefer to waste plays and will make a throw when the best option is to take the sack. This forcing of the ball gave me the impression of what I call the “Jameis syndrome” that is_ an interception habit that will require time to overcome especially if he’s going to be asked to use Meyer’s offensive approach prior to the hiring of Ryan Day. Does Meyer have a full grasp of Day’s offensive philosophy? Time will tell.

Justin Fields, Ohio State Buckeyes​

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 21
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 228

• 1. Let me begin with this.. If Justin Fields was the first QB drafted my concerns about his health would be no different than what I wrote about Trevor Lawrence. Fortunately for him, he won’t be and as such, I believe that he (Fields) is actually the best QB in this draft, in fact, I’m sure of it. Cutting the field in half and asking his QB’s to rely upon that one read isn’t a hallmark of the Ryan Day offense. In fact, Justin Fields was asked to do more full field reads in Day’s offense than any of the other QB’s in this draft combined. This alone makes him more NFL ready than the rest. Add to that the possibility of going to San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan and we’re probably looking at the OROY. Being the best QB in this draft IMO doesn’t mean that he is without on field flaws either. There are a lot of mixed messages going around about Fields; most I believe are either related to “character” concerns that pop up with certain players and a legacy of failed Ohio State QB’s at the professional level. Beyond these, which I completely dismiss, my concerns are with his ability to throw receivers open. He needs some work on that and a little on manipulating defenders with his eyes. I cannot say for certain because there just wasn’t enough of a sample size, but I did notice on a few occasions that his receivers slowed a bit on deep passes. Understanding NFL defenses and especially blitz packages is something that ALL new QB’s must learn to recognize and I include Lawrence and Fields in that group. Beyond these, there were many times that questions floated around about who’s better, Lawrence or Fields, I don’t think that those comparisons were without reasonable assessment and it’s not unthinkable to make that comparison now. Ranking them is difficult and the difference isn’t greater than a coin toss.

Trey Lance, North Dakota State Bison​

Year: Third-year sophomore | Age: 20 | Career starts: 17
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 226


2. OK, I’m going to surprise some here with this next statement, so, if Trey Lance is drafted to a team that has the luxury of sitting him for a season, and people are ranking Fields and Lawrence 1 and 1A, then this guy is the second best QB in this draft. In fact, sitting him for a year puts him into Mahomes comparisons adjusted for NFL level seasoning. I know, I know, North Dakota State, Carson Wentz and all of that, but if I’m not going to hold that against others I won’t do it for this player. He’s very young, turns 21 on May 9th and despite being very similar to MaHomes in his approach to the game does have flaws. The first thing that I noticed is that he bails from the pocket quickly, even when there’s time or adjustments could extend time he bails. Next level play will call upon him to trust what he sees and deliver the ball (this is a bad Wentz comparison) . He’ll also have to learn and develop a stronger base as I saw too much upper body and arm throws which weakened his strength of delivery. Reports from coaches say that he was responsible for setting his protections and reading the entire field and that tells me that he has their confidence and a well above average football IQ. That’s pretty impressive for one so young. He seems to have the same issues with the deep pass as Fields as receivers slow down for his as well. Like Lawrence he has to develop a much better slide. He’s a project with tremendous upside, provided there’s enough patience to give him time to learn and adjust to the NFL game. Drafting him early in round one will likely end that promise as the pressure to start him right away will take precedence.

Zach Wilson, BYU Cougars​

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 27
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210


3. I have to admit up front that I had never heard about this player before this draft began to be a focal point in NFL circles. At first glance my initial impression was Jim McMahon the former Chicago Bears QB. I have serious concerns about this guy being among the top five QB’s in this draft but so far every report that I hear about him has him going 2nd to the N.Y. Jets. His measurable are impressive but those measurable in relation to what he’s actually done on the field give me pause. Is he an upgrade over Darnold? No! There are only 3 QB’s in this draft that I feel comfortable saying that about and he isn’t one of them. The reasons for this begin with BYU, not your typical power team and his career 2-4 record against top 25 teams is dispiriting. He is another in a long line of QB’s who needs everything to go right in order to have consistent success at the next level and playing in that N.Y. market won’t be kind to struggles with off-script misfires or turnovers. I wasn’t happy seeing him in the pocket and having the ball about waist high as he scanned the field. He doesn’t anticipate well and having to bring the ball up adds the critical seconds to delivery that at the NFL level makes the difference between completion and interception his reality. I looked at video of his game against Coastal Carolina and I didn’t see an NFL ready QB. Perhaps it was simply a bad game but it was against CC and his future is going to be against the best of the best week in, and week out. Could he develop? Of course, but after the whole Sam Darnold experiment are New Yorkers really going to be in a mood to wait on his development?

Mac Jones, Alabama Crimson Tide​

Year: Fourth-year junior | Age: 22 | Career starts: 16
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 214


4. Kirk, Cousins, Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins, with a bit more polish is the constant refrain surrounding this player. San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan are connected to Jones and their #3 selection could have his name attached to it. Beyond that, I just don’t see a first round grade on him. If he goes to the 49’ers and performs as Cousins might, then yeah he deserves that ranking and no one will question it. Granted it is a one-of-a-kind situation for him but if the Niners pass on him then others can’t be fooled into thinking that he won’t be around much later in this draft. Were it not for that Shanahan connection I would have him listed with the best of the rest below.


THE BEST OF THE REST: PROJECTS: It’s possible that one or two of these guys will surprise as so many drafted later in previous drafts have done. Talent is one thing, getting lucky with which team drafts them is something else, but as it stands now this is all about the first round and grading appropriately. I 100% certain that there’s going to be at least one of these guys who becomes a starter and possibly an all-timer for the team that he’ll play for, unfortunately I cannot identify him at this point. My best guess is Mond, who is extremely raw but has the talents to develop into “that” guy for some team if he’s fortunate enough to land in a place where he’s handled properly. My ranking for the best of the rest is as follows:

1.Kellen Mond (greater upside over Jones were he listed here)

(Mac Jones would otherwise occupy the second spot here)

2. Kyle Trask

3. Davis Mills ( wanted to place him in the second spot ahead of Trask, reminds me of Jones)

4. Sam Ehlinger

5. Ian Book

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tomcat1 said:

Obviously you put a lot of thought into your evaluations of the best QBs in the draft and I don't disagree with any of it. With that said I've got to go back to your opening paragraph which basically said 'you don't know what you're getting' with any of these guys. This is why I have always been against unloading draft picks or moving up in the draft to obtain Mr. Everything in college football. Personally I think Trevor Lawrence is head and shoulders above the rest of the QBs in this draft but with that said my phone has not been ringing off the hook with an offer to be a GM for any NFL team.

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Stymietee said:

Ok, let's address the whole notion of getting your QB later in the draft instead of trading up to get one that gives you a greater shot at success. Again, which team drafts a player play a significant role in his success or failure. That said, let us proceed.

Since Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round, there have been 250 QB's drafted.
If we eliminate all of the QB's drafted 1-2-3 and 4 in all of that time, we're left with 170 of them.

Of that 170 there are ONLY 3 who are legitimate stars.They are, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott.

Of those left you have 5 starter quality players and they are, Jimmy G, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, and Kirk Cousins. I'll leave it open to debate regarding Jacoby Brissett and Tyrod Taylor, but that's it.

That's 3 stars, 5 starters and 2 guys who are debatable starters out of 170 drafted in the lower rounds. So depending upon whether you choose to use 8 or 10, that's what you get drafting outside of the top 4 over time. Do we really want to take this route hoping to somehow find that guy in later rounds which in effect would be like winning the Powerball, MegaMillions and getting struck by lightning on 10 consecutive days in a row unscathed?

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skinsdad62 said:

this also must be considered when trading up . fair point

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Stymietee said:

Ok we'll use the same time frame and metric, only this time we'll just focus on the first 4 QB's per draft taken since Brady. Top 4 X 20 years =80 QB's.
I'll use as much caution and be very conservative in making these lists sooooo,

Of the 80 we have 14 legitimate franchise guys they are/ were ( listed from 2001 to present):
1. M. Vick
2. D. Brees
3. E. Manning
4. P. Rivers
5. B. Roethlisberger
6. A. Rodgers
7. M. Ryan
8. M. Stafford
9. C. Newton
10. A. Luck
11. R. Tannehill
12. P. Mahomes
13. D. Watson
14. J. Allen

This leaves 66 players and of those the legitimate starters numbered 5 and are/ were:

1. C. Palmer
2. A. Smith
3. J. Flacco
4. T. Bridgewater
5. B. Mayfield

Now we're down to 61 with a list of too early to tell. They number 13 and are in no particular order: (* seeking new starts)

1. D. Carr
2. J. Winston
3. J. Goff
4. C. Wentz
5. D. Jones
6. K. Murray
7. J. Herbert
8. J. Burrow
9. T. Tagovailoa
10. J. Love
11. D. Haskins*
12. S. Darnold
13. D. Lock*

This leaves us at 48 clear misses or a 40% chance to get your guy or a promising one (37% minus Haskins and Lock) compared to the 4.7% chance in later rounds using that 8 legit number, 5.8% using the 10 legit number in my previous post.

As you can see the hit/ better chance to succeed rate is much higher when you get your QB early in the draft, specifically among the first 4 QB's taken. As I've stated before, if you're Washington and you present with your historic middle of the pack finishes, it's gonna cost you, but 10 or more years as a legitimate contender for SB's is well worth it.

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Stymietee said:

...

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers​

Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Career starts: 36
Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 220

1A.___ Well what’s there to say about this guy that hasn’t been covered? He has all of the prototypical intangibles, and is almost the consensus top QB in this draft, except for me he isn’t the best of the lot this year. I watched a lot of film on all of these guys looking for that negative stuff that tends to get overlooked during this time and almost didn’t find it until I remembered something that I said about last year’s #1 consensus pick. That’s right, my assessment of Joe Burrow led me to the same conclusion about Trevor Lawrence, this time my concern is heightened because of Lawrence’s build and the team that he’s destined to play for. Like Burrow, Jacksonville will have to protect him and that’s going to take time. Unlike Burrow, Lawrence is a rather lanky guy and subject to feeling those hits in ways that didn’t hurt Burrow as much as they will him. There are other on the field concerns as well, among them are his lack of experience at reading the entire field because of the type of offense that was used at Clemson. We will see if he’s as adapt and able to do this as did Watson who also played in that system. I didn’t notice any slides in his game when forced to run lending to that high risk injury possibility mentioned earlier. There’s this little hitch in his passing motion but he’s gotten away with it thus far and it’s possible that it’s nothing to be that concerned about considering that it’s not a new development. He doesn’t prefer to waste plays and will make a throw when the best option is to take the sack. This forcing of the ball gave me the impression of what I call the “Jameis syndrome” that is_ an interception habit that will require time to overcome especially if he’s going to be asked to use Meyer’s offensive approach prior to the hiring of Ryan Day. Does Meyer have a full grasp of Day’s offensive philosophy? Time will tell.

Trey Lance, North Dakota State Bison​

Year: Third-year sophomore | Age: 20 | Career starts: 17
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 226


2. OK, I’m going to surprise some here with this next statement, so, if Trey Lance is drafted to a team that has the luxury of sitting him for a season, and people are ranking Fields and Lawrence 1 and 1A, then this guy is the second best QB in this draft. In fact, sitting him for a year puts him into Mahomes comparisons adjusted for NFL level seasoning. I know, I know, North Dakota State, Carson Wentz and all of that, but if I’m not going to hold that against others I won’t do it for this player. He’s very young, turns 21 on May 9th and despite being very similar to MaHomes in his approach to the game does have flaws. The first thing that I noticed is that he bails from the pocket quickly, even when there’s time or adjustments could extend time he bails. Next level play will call upon him to trust what he sees and deliver the ball (this is a bad Wentz comparison) . He’ll also have to learn and develop a stronger base as I saw too much upper body and arm throws which weakened his strength of delivery. Reports from coaches say that he was responsible for setting his protections and reading the entire field and that tells me that he has their confidence and a well above average football IQ. That’s pretty impressive for one so young. He seems to have the same issues with the deep pass as Fields as receivers slow down for his as well. Like Lawrence he has to develop a much better slide. He’s a project with tremendous upside, provided there’s enough patience to give him time to learn and adjust to the NFL game. Drafting him early in round one will likely end that promise as the pressure to start him right away will take precedence.

2. Kyle Trask


4. Sam Ehlinger

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Stymietee said:

Ok we'll use the same time frame and metric, only this time we'll just focus on the first 4 QB's per draft taken since Brady. Top 4 X 20 years =80 QB's.
I'll use as much caution and be very conservative in making these lists sooooo,

Of the 80 we have 14 legitimate franchise guys they are/ were ( listed from 2001 to present):
1. M. Vick
2. D. Brees
3. E. Manning
4. P. Rivers
5. B. Roethlisberger
6. A. Rodgers
7. M. Ryan
8. M. Stafford
9. C. Newton
10. A. Luck
11. R. Tannehill
12. P. Mahomes
13. D. Watson
14. J. Allen

This leaves 66 players and of those the legitimate starters numbered 5 and are/ were:

1. C. Palmer
2. A. Smith
3. J. Flacco
4. T. Bridgewater
5. B. Mayfield

Now we're down to 61 with a list of too early to tell. They number 13 and are in no particular order: (* seeking new starts)

1. D. Carr
2. J. Winston
3. J. Goff
4. C. Wentz
5. D. Jones
6. K. Murray
7. J. Herbert
8. J. Burrow
9. T. Tagovailoa
10. J. Love
11. D. Haskins*
12. S. Darnold
13. D. Lock*

This leaves us at 48 clear misses or a 40% chance to get your guy or a promising one (37% minus Haskins and Lock) compared to the 4.7% chance in later rounds using that 8 legit number, 5.8% using the 10 legit number in my previous post.

As you can see the hit/ better chance to succeed rate is much higher when you get your QB early in the draft, specifically among the first 4 QB's taken. As I've stated before, if you're Washington and you present with your historic middle of the pack finishes, it's gonna cost you, but 10 or more years as a legitimate contender for SB's is well worth it.

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pachyderm said:

The ones I've left in intrigue me more than the rest.

Mack Jones is overrated IMHO. I'm hard pressed to think of another QB from 'Bama who has made an impact in the NFL in recent years not including Tua who is still an unknown asset at this point in his career. I'm not saying he won't, I'm saying my jury is still out on him.

FIngers crossed Trey Lance is this years "Josh Allen", who I also said would make a big impact and he did.

And Lawrence is head & shoulders betterX2 than the rest.

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The 15 Alabama quarterbacks who were drafted by the pros

Alabama has always been one of the best programs in college football, but its record of sending starting quarterbacks to the NFL has been much more spotty. Though it can claim such Hall of Fame leg…

touchdownwire.usatoday.com

skinsdad62 said:

Is there any reason we had to go to race here ?

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gkekoa said:

Race?

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countryroads316 said:

Washington Redwalkers

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skinsdad62 said:

Funny last season I said winning the division would bring buyers remorse at draft time when it came to drafting qbs this year . Now what metric do we use when it comes to putting in resources to get said qb?

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pachyderm said:

The ones I've left in intrigue me more than the rest.

Mack Jones is overrated IMHO. I'm hard pressed to think of another QB from 'Bama who has made an impact in the NFL in recent years not including Tua who is still an unknown asset at this point in his career. I'm not saying he won't, I'm saying my jury is still out on him.

FIngers crossed Trey Lance is this years "Josh Allen", who I also said would make a big impact and he did.

And Lawrence is head & shoulders betterX2 than the rest.

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tomcat1 said:

Well done QB professor and I mean that genuinely.

Do you remember the old song 'Wishing and Hoping'?

Well, I'm wishing and hoping that Fitzpatrick lives to be 100 and he is still playing QB at a high level in his mid 40s. Of course he is going to have to get in touch with Tom Terrific for his water diet in order to do this but stranger things have happened.

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skinsdad62 said:

The saying is scout the player not the helmet

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