Lucas's Power 5 Conference Rankings - Week 5

[Eco]

Another week in the books, so now we look on to week 5, and as we approach this exciting weekend of games, it's time to release what I believe to be the rankings for the conferences, using only the notion of how many, and which, teams a particular conference has that could still make the College Football Playoff.

So, sorry bottom feeders, these are only for the teams that have, at most, lost 1 game thus far.

So, without further adieu, here are the rankings -

Last Week: #1

One big match up in the B1G changed up the pecking order a bit, but overall, this conference survived and the teams that all had a shot to make the playoffs, still do, and yes, even Michigan State. Here is how I see their chances.

Michigan - 60%
Michigan has the easiest road to the B1G Ten Championship than anyone. While they do have Wisconsin this week, the game has been sandwiched between Penn State and Rutgers (aka, two cupcakes). and the same goes for the Wolverines match up against Michigan State (Illinois before, Maryland after), and Ohio State (Indiana the week before). The also get to avoid Nebraska which further solidfies them as my most likely to make the College Football playoff out of the conference.

Ohio State - 50%
The Buckeyes have played no one yet, so they will have to go up against the two Michigan teams, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. The schedule looks difficult for the Buckeyes, and the key here is go into the Michigan game with 1 loss at most, and win it, putting them in the B1G Ten Championship game. I give them 50% as it's still early, and while they are talented, something happening to JT could absolutely ruin this team.

Michigan State - 20%
One loss Michigan State comes in next, and reading my piece about Wisconsin will help you get a sense of why. From here on out, the Spartans only have 2 really difficult opponents with Michigan and Ohio State. However, both of these games are in East Lansing, and spread far enough apart, that they should have time to recover. Win out, and your win, but that's easier said than done for the Spartans, as they have zero room for error.

Nebraska - 15%
The undefeated Huskers come in needing to only win one game in particular, which even if they lose, could still mean they head to the B1G Ten Championship. More than one loss though, will surely doom their chances. The big game is of course October 29th against Wisconsin. Other than that, they travel to Columbus and to Iowa, and then the rest of their schedule is easy. Beating Wisconsin might mean they are heading to Indy.

Wisconsin - 10%
So it's not that I'm a believer in the Badgers, it's that their next games are @ Michigan, @ OSU, @ Iowa, and then at home to Nebraska. I could easily see 2-3 losses in that stretch, which would ruin all of Wisconsin's chances of getting to the playoffs. And easier slate of games, or a break, would definitely increase their chances, but that slate is one of the most difficult in football.

Minnesota & Maryland - 0%
Sorry guys, it's just not happening.

Last Week: #2

Louisville - 70%
Just one game, and maybe not even that stands in Louisville's way. They have two opponents left who are worth anything, and one of those games is this weekend when they travel to Clemson. If they win this, I think Louisville are in prime position for the playoffs. The game at Houston will be an exciting one, but if Louisville wins this game, they are in the ACC Championship no matter the outcome of the Houston game and therefore a prime seat to get to the playoffs. Beating FSU, as bad as they did, on national TV, really put them on the map. Win this week, and Louisville's number go up significantly.

Clemson - 50%
The defending ACC Champs have their biggest test this weekend against Louisville. Winning will do wonders for them, as they have just recently started to resemble the team that went to the National Championship game last year. Match up against FSU still looms, and while it is in FL, I'm not sure the Clemson is out if they lose that game but win this weekend. If the Tigers do win this weekend, you will have a crazy scenario in the ACC and you'll see the odds for the Tigers go up a lot.

Florida State - 15%
Not much to say here. Getting dominated on national TV did you no favors, plus to even get to the ACC title game, you will need a lot of help. Personally, I don't think you'll finish the season with just 1 loss, as match ups against Miami, Clemson, and Florida could all result in a loss. Still, you are FSU and you have a great RB.

Miami - 14%
Slip up again looms this weekend in Atlanta. Lose that, and you're probably out. Games for the 'Canes include FSU and at South Bend. They also have to face an underrated Pitt team, and potentially the winner of the Atlantic Division, which will be either FSU, Clemson, for Louisville. Sorry 'Canes, I think your QB and I love Richt, but this just isn't a good year to be in the ACC.

Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina - 0%
UNC is the only team that may surprise you, but they will have 2 losses, one of which to a Georgia team that isn't looking like they are even good.

Last Week: #3

Alabama - 80%
Alabama proves that you don't have to go undefeated to win the National Championship, and last week got beat their biggest throne in Ole Miss. Upcoming games @ Arkansas, @ Tennessee, vs A&M, and @ LSU, all could prove what the Tide are really worth. Their biggest challenge coming up is themselves. This is a team that if they take care of the ball and don't mentally lose it, than I don't think there is a team in the SEC that can keep up.

Texas A&M - 40%
If Alabama is going to slip up, it'll likely be against these Aggies. A&M has two elite defensive, and a great LB core. Add in a QB that has already beaten Alabama, and you may have yourself a game. What's not in A&M's favor is that the game is in Tuscaloosa, and the fact that their secondary is looking like a weak spot. Still, they have a BYE week before Bama, and a matchup the week before the BYE with Tennessee. I have a feeling we will all know a lot more about A&M in the next month.

Tennessee - 35%
UT's win against Florida was a great game to watch (even though I hate UT), and typically an undefeated UT team would have better odds. However, their next 3 weeks are @ UGA, @ A&M, and against Alabama. I could see two losses in the mix there. After that the road is smooth sailing until the SEC Championship game (if they get there), but these gauntlet scares me for UT, which is why I have them this low.

UGA, Florida, & Arkansas - 5%
All teams are hanging on by a thread. UGA's loss is bad, but if they win out, and then beat Alabama or A&M in the SEC Championship game, they are in. The problem? That's just not going to happen. Same goes for Florida, really. Arkansas plays Bama and I think that will be the day that the coffin is nailed on the Hogs chances in 2016.

Last Week: #4

Washington & Stanford - 50%
The Winner of this game on Friday will be the overwhelming favorites for the Pac-12 Representative in the CFB Playoffs. With teams like USC & Oregon not looking at dangerous as they have recently, it's really up to the winner of this game to win out, and defeat the South's champion in the Pac-12 Championship.

Utah - 5%
They have a defense, but their offense isn't that good, and they have a tough road ahead. However, they are the favorites in the South, where right now anything can happen.

Arizona State, UCLA, Colorado - 2%
Good teams, that are likely to beat teams better than them, and then lose a game (or two) to opponents that we think are worse than them. This is the way of the Pac-12. These teams are in the South though which is a crazy division this year, and I still believe anything can happen.

Last Week: #5

Baylor & West Virginia - 10%
Both teams are undefeated, but one has such a bad taste about them with recent scandals that I'm not sure they get in even if they go undefeated, while the other one is a team I don't think is that good. I think the winning of the Big XII this year will have at least 2 losses.

Kansas State, Texas, TCU, & Texas Tech - 1%
Anything can happen right? Most likely in a month all of these teams will have another loss beside their name.

So there you have it!

What do you think?

 

[fishinabarrel]

Wisky has Ohio State at home. Don't know if that changes anything with your percentages, but it does make that stretch look ever so slightly better

 

[Tharvot]

I realize Oklahoma may not be elite this year, but saying Ohio State has played "no one" just 2 weeks after thumping OU in their house is a bit of a stretch.

 

[Eco]

Wisky has Ohio State at home. Don't know if that changes anything with your percentages, but it does make that stretch look ever so slightly better

I realize Oklahoma may not be elite this year, but saying Ohio State has played "no one" just 2 weeks after thumping OU in their house is a bit of a stretch.

Damn - I honestly had let it slip about the Buckeyes playing Oklahoma.

I will say this, I think OSU will win the conference, but that's more of a feeling and not based on schedules or anything. I think OSU is going to have a tough slate coming up, and there might be a team in there that gives them a game that wasn't expected (Like VT two years ago). I'm also not a fan of OSU playing Michigan state and Michigan back-to-back, just a lot of pressure on some serious games.

 

[Tharvot]

Damn - I honestly had let it slip about the Buckeyes playing Oklahoma.

I will say this, I think OSU will win the conference, but that's more of a feeling and not based on schedules or anything. I think OSU is going to have a tough slate coming up, and there might be a team in there that gives them a game that wasn't expected (Like VT two years ago). I'm also not a fan of OSU playing Michigan state and Michigan back-to-back, just a lot of pressure on some serious games.

Historically, Wisconsin has given the Buckeyes trouble and more recently Dantonio has had Meyer's number. It's a difficult road, but if Ohio State navigates it there will be no denying they belong in the CFP.

 

[Eco]

Historically, Wisconsin has given the Buckeyes trouble and more recently Dantonio has had Meyer's number. It's a difficult road, but if Ohio State navigates it there will be no denying they belong in the CFP.

Only issues if you win both of those is if you lose to an Undefeated Michigan team to end the year, thus stopping OSU from going to the Big Ten Championship.

All of the Power conferences hope that Houston loses...they are the independent's last hope.

 

[Tharvot]

Only issues if you win both of those is if you lose to an Undefeated Michigan team to end the year, thus stopping OSU from going to the Big Ten Championship.

All of the Power conferences hope that Houston loses...they are the independent's last hope.

Houston still has Louisville on the schedule. That one will be a barn burner.

And that's what happened to tOSU last year. Only loss was to MSU and it kept Ohio State out of the B1G CCG and subsequently out of the CFP.

 

[Eco]

Houston still has Louisville on the schedule. That one will be a barn burner.

And that's what happened to tOSU last year. Only loss was to MSU and it kept Ohio State out of the B1G CCG and subsequently out of the CFP.

Exactly, which was great for Bama, and terrible for everyone else (maybe Michigan fans were happy seeing the Spartans get rocked).

 

[Moab]

Wisky has Ohio State at home. Don't know if that changes anything with your percentages, but it does make that stretch look ever so slightly better

Interesting. Since UW beat MSU @ MSU I thought maybe the B1G decided they wanted to bone them a little harder with the schedule this year... Oh well, they had it easy the last couple years, so this year's schedule is kind of deserved... I guess

 

[Across The Field]

After watching michigan struggle with Colorado, I have no doubt we will beat them at home, regardless of what our record is. Jim Harbaugh simply is not able to contain an offense like what Urban Meyer runs, and their QB situation isn't even as good as it was last year. While this team won't put another dozen kids in the 2017 draft, it may be the best team Meyer has coached at OSU in terms of cohesion and chemistry.

 

[7Samurai13]

Fun fact, every single BigTen conference championship game has involved either Michigan State or Wisconsin with one of them winning four out of five.

 

[Eco]

After watching michigan struggle with Colorado, I have no doubt we will beat them at home, regardless of what our record is. Jim Harbaugh simply is not able to contain an offense like what Urban Meyer runs, and their QB situation isn't even as good as it was last year. While this team won't put another dozen kids in the 2017 draft, it may be the best team Meyer has coached at OSU in terms of cohesion and chemistry.

I think Colorado is a good team, and just because an elite team struggles with one team that they shouldn't doesn't mean jack.

Last year Alabama won the N.C., yet they struggled with Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, and a bad Auburn team.

Everyone has games where they don't play up to their level, and I think this was a case for Michigan.

I still think OSU will struggle with Michigan this year. I think UM are a lot better than they were last year, and Ohio State is likely to have an emotional game against MSU considering what MSU 'took' from OSU last year.

 

[Great Dayne]

Fun fact, every single BigTen conference championship game has involved either Michigan State or Wisconsin with one of them winning four out of five.

SHHHHHHHH keep that stuff on the DL please.

 

[Across The Field]

I think Colorado is a good team, and just because an elite team struggles with one team that they shouldn't doesn't mean jack.

Last year Alabama won the N.C., yet they struggled with Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, and a bad Auburn team.

Everyone has games where they don't play up to their level, and I think this was a case for Michigan.

I still think OSU will struggle with Michigan this year. I think UM are a lot better than they were last year, and Ohio State is likely to have an emotional game against MSU considering what MSU 'took' from OSU last year.

I guess I'm not seeing the improvements michigan has supposedly made. I'm talking more about the fact that Colorado had an established, young QB and even with mediocre talent, he still ripped michigan up until he got hurt.

Defensively, OSU is much better at this point. Tulsa and Oklahoma returned the bulk of two of the most explosive offenses in the nation last year and they combined for 20 points against our defense (OU scored a S/T TD).

In all honesty, in watching both teams, how/where do you think OSU will struggle with michigan?

 

[Great Dayne]

Fun fact, every single BigTen conference championship game has involved either Michigan State or Wisconsin with one of them winning four out of five.

You forgot to add that the last 4 or 5 teams that have beaten MSU by 10+ pts have won the NC.

 

[7Samurai13]

You forgot to add that the last 4 or 5 teams that have beaten MSU by 10+ pts have won the NC.

Well that's just not true. Yes Bama last year and Ohio State the year before that but
2012 Notre Dame, 2011 Notre Dame, and 2011 Nebraska did not win a national title.

 

[Eco]

I guess I'm not seeing the improvements michigan has supposedly made. I'm talking more about the fact that Colorado had an established, young QB and even with mediocre talent, he still ripped michigan up until he got hurt.

Defensively, OSU is much better at this point. Tulsa and Oklahoma returned the bulk of two of the most explosive offenses in the nation last year and they combined for 20 points against our defense (OU scored a S/T TD).

In all honesty, in watching both teams, how/where do you think OSU will struggle with michigan?

Well - I have only seen the Buckeyes play Oklahoma, which was impressive no doubt.

I know OSU will struggle with someone that they shouldn't. That being the case, with last year's loss to Michigan State, and the game being in East Lansing, I full expect OSU to go all out in the game and make sure that they take it to the Spartans. MSU is a physical team though, and so after such an emotional game, it just wouldn't surprise me if they struggled the next week against a Michigan team that got embarrassed last year, but is also more talented than last year.

As good as JT Barrett is, and he's good, Jabrill Peppers is just as much as a playmaker, so this will going to be about pride (Michigan will come in with a chip on their shoulder), and who can not turn the ball over. Granted, we have many weeks until this game, but I just see this game as being one that Michigan is going to throw all there eggs into this basket, to upset OSU in the Shoe. Not to mention that the Wolverines basically get 2 weeks to prepare for this game since they have Indiana first, whereas again, OSU has the Spartans.

 

[Great Dayne]

Well that's just not true. Yes Bama last year and Ohio State the year before that but
2012 Notre Dame, 2011 Notre Dame, and 2011 Nebraska did not win a national title.

Bama won 2015 after the beating
OSU won NC in 2014 after a 12 pt win

Yeah, it was posted on a Badger website. They lied. Although I'm not sure it happens to often where a team beats MSU by 24 points in their own stadium.

 

[Clayton]

I think your percentages add up to around 5 1/4 college playoff teams.

That would be quite surprising.

 

[Across The Field]

Well - I have only seen the Buckeyes play Oklahoma, which was impressive no doubt.

I know OSU will struggle with someone that they shouldn't. That being the case, with last year's loss to Michigan State, and the game being in East Lansing, I full expect OSU to go all out in the game and make sure that they take it to the Spartans. MSU is a physical team though, and so after such an emotional game, it just wouldn't surprise me if they struggled the next week against a Michigan team that got embarrassed last year, but is also more talented than last year.

As good as JT Barrett is, and he's good, Jabrill Peppers is just as much as a playmaker, so this will going to be about pride (Michigan will come in with a chip on their shoulder), and who can not turn the ball over. Granted, we have many weeks until this game, but I just see this game as being one that Michigan is going to throw all there eggs into this basket, to upset OSU in the Shoe. Not to mention that the Wolverines basically get 2 weeks to prepare for this game since they have Indiana first, whereas again, OSU has the Spartans.

What you're describing is really similar to what happened in 2013-2014.

In 2013, OSU played an extremely emotional B1G CCG against MSU and blew it in the 4th quarter (kept them out of the NC game). In 2014, they went to East Lansing and smoked MSU, and that 2014 MSU team was worlds better than this year's MSU team.

Granted, the michigan game wasn't for another couple of weeks after they played Sparty, but they still whooped michigan at home.

Where is all the talent on this year's michigan team that wasn't there last year? I dunno, maybe I'm missing something. I've watched each of their games except for Hawaii, and while they've looked good, the only team they've faced with a pulse nearly upset them at home. I need to see a lot more from them before I start taking them seriously, especially against an OSU team that's significantly better on both sides of the ball.