Expectations for Trevor Siemian

[iknowftbll]

Now that the Broncos starting QB has an NFL pass attempt under his belt, what do we think of his chances as the starter going forward? We had a "Thoughts on the Game" thread, but this is specific to Siemian himself. Do we think we have a viable option for 2016 or does anyone still expect to see Lynch at some point?

My thoughts:

First and foremost: Our sample is still just one game. What's encouraging is that a 7th round pick in his 2nd year making his first start on such a big stage and against a team that reached the Super Bowl last year looked...solid. He looked like an "average" 4-5 year veteran and I say that as a compliment.

I say average because the line, 18/26 for 178-1-2 is average. Perhaps even a little below. But it wasn't just the line that mattered. It was the composure along the way too. Siemian converted on some key third downs and even picked up a couple himself on the ground. The two picks are the types of mistakes you'd expect a 1st year starter, regardless of draft position and experience. On the TD pass to Anderson Siemian played the pressure as good as has ever been done, and once he got the ball to Anderson, Anderson did the rest.

As for the intangibles, it's important to remember the dialogue to Siemian going into the game was something along the lines of "you don't have to win this game yourself." Then the Broncos went into half time down 17-7. What we learned in the 2nd half is Siemian is capable of leading the offense back into a game. The defense clamped down in the 2nd half but it wouldn't have mattered if the offense never got it going. Siemian was a huge part of that.

Expectations:

Before the season I assumed Sanchez would respond to the coaching here and would be our starter. Wrong on that. Even as the team announced Siemian the starter I maintained it was reasonable to expect improvement on the offense given the production from last year was so abysmal. Before Thursday's game I held Siemian could get us 3300 or so passing yards, 20 or so TDs, and keep turnovers down.

Assuming he holds the starting role, I think those numbers are reasonable. Keep in mind, not every defense is as good as Carolina's. He won't throw 2 picks every game. He'll get 250+ passing yards a few times along the way, and he'll have a few 2+ TD games as well. There will be down weeks as well, which happens to every QB.

Given the defense we have, the offensive line looking as good as they did, and the ground game looking as good as it did, I think Siemian is really in a position to succeed and hold the job through the season. I still think this team can finish 12-4. And this all has the potential to create a very interesting QB controversy next off season.

 

[randymon]

Now I don't really like this comparison but right now it fits. Trevor looks a lot like Alex Smith does right now at this " late in his career. If Trevor can show he also can hit the deep ball with reasonable consistency, which Smith doesn't, the future is bright for this kid whether it's with Denver or some other team. There is something special in him and I don't think it's my imagination. We shall see.

 

[DownSetHutch]

I'm glad you started this thread, ikf, because I found myself thinking during the 2nd half of the game on Thursday that we would need to broach this subject sooner rather than later. Trevor Siemian played as well as anyone could have expected, given the circumstances.

This is only one game, and he will definitely have his ups and downs as the season goes on, but he showed a lot in that one game: poise, mettle, confidence, leadership, decision making, and plenty of physical tools too. None of this is any guarantee that he will continue to show these traits, or that he will continue to develop, but he is in an ideal situation to do so with this team and the coaching staff around him.

Before this game, I hadn't thought too much about a possible QB controversy as Lynch continues to develop and be groomed to be the starter, but I can see that as a real possibility now. A lot remains to be seen, from both QBs, but we may have 2 starting-caliber QBs on our team. That would be a great problem to have.

 

[LongtimeRamsFan42]

I think a guy like Siemian could end up surprising people...You guys were supposedly trying to trade for Keenum until your coaches saw what Siemian could do...I'd trust your coaches opinion over just about any other staff out there when it comes to starting the right QB...

 

[58crash]

Same as the first time I seen him play going to be a decent QB .

I thought he would do just a little better still very proud of his first start against one heck of a team .

I am positive he is going to light up a few teams tis year .

 

[WalkerBoh]

Manning was severely criticized for posting similar lines last season. Siemian would have lost this game, had it not been for the defense playing significantly stronger in the second half. While it was only his first game, 2INT's to one TD won't get it done consistently. He still has a lot of work to become a serviceable starting QB.

 

[cdumler7]

The more I think about the game it just seems like there were so many things that made you think this kid looks like a seasoned veteran or a QB that really was making their first start and struggling.

I mean the 2 interceptions in my opinion were rookie type mistakes. The tipped ball on the screen. One of Siemian's biggest issues all off season is that he struggles to get air under the football. We saw it then on the goal line throw with a TE wide open in the end zone but he tried to zoom it in to see it tipped and almost picked off. Then the 2nd interception with a man in his face he has to know that he just needs to launch the ball long. At least if our WR can't catch it make sure nobody else can.

We saw other plays such as around the goal line again with his throw to DT where he put it way too far out in front of him which lead to him taking a big hit. Need to help protect the WR. Saw that on that 3rd and 2 completion to DT where he threw it up pretty high and while DT caught the pass it also lead to him taking a huge hit when a lower throw still would have been completed and not exposed DT as much.

At the same time we saw some great veteran type plays. The throw to Sanders at the 1 yard line maybe showed he learned from his mistake of putting a WR in danger and made it to where only Sanders could catch it and protected him a bit from taking the big hit.

Maybe my 2 favorite throws of his were on the 1st drive. The very first throw on the screen in seeing the defender right in the way and doing the pump fake. That could have been a huge mistake if he threw that but instead pulled it down and completed a very nice pass. Then we saw later on the drive on a 3rd and 10 where he moved around in the pocket and bought some time to make a nice pass for an easy first down.

I also loved that we have a QB that can actually run a bit when nothing is open. Those hidden yards like that are huge throughout the game.

So definitely a lot to like such as his poise throughout the game even after some big mistakes. I loved that we never really saw any panic in the offense after all the turnovers and I think Siemian is a big part of that.

Need to see more though before I'm ready to look at him as a long-term solution. I need to see him learn from these big mistakes that he made. They honestly should have cost us this game. So if he can learn even in victory that is just an added bonus for us.

Probably the biggest thing next week that I am looking for from him is the deep ball. Carolina with their scheme doesn't bode well for a team trying to throw deep so I understand him playing the short game. At the same time he did have a wide open Sanders for a huge touchdown with 4 minutes left in the game and wouldn't pull the trigger. Teams will creep up more and more as they get tape on this kid unless he shows them he isn't afraid to go deep and can have even a hint of accuracy on those throws.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Probably the biggest thing next week that I am looking for from him is the deep ball. Carolina with their scheme doesn't bode well for a team trying to throw deep so I understand him playing the short game. At the same time he did have a wide open Sanders for a huge touchdown with 4 minutes left in the game and wouldn't pull the trigger. Teams will creep up more and more as they get tape on this kid unless he shows them he isn't afraid to go deep and can have even a hint of accuracy on those throws.

THIS! He makes this pass, and we don't have to worry about Gano. As it is, Siemian has a long way to go to become the QB we need. Good starting QB's don't miss these types of opportunities.

 

[cdumler7]

THIS! He makes this pass, and we don't have to worry about Gano. As it is, Siemian has a long way to go to become the QB we need. Good starting QB's don't miss these types of opportunities.

Honestly my biggest worry with Siemian at this point is that this team has to work hard to protect him sometimes even from himself yet not so much drive home him protecting the ball that he misses opportunities for big plays.

I coach soccer for a wide range of ages. One of the biggest issues with younger kids is just wanting to get into a huge pile of people and kick the ball with 15 people around it. Then when it finally gets out they all just move to that spot and do it again. I work hard to coach the young ones to understand their position and not just get caught up in wanting to always be around the ball. My defenders during practice I always emphasize that they can't go past midfield and leave our goalie vulnerable to a big play. Well then I had one game where the ball stopped a yard on the other side of midfield and I watched 3 of my defenders just stand at midfield afraid of going across and kicking the ball. I had emphasized the point too much and it hurt our team.

When I go back and watch the game Thursday I see a bit of that in that moment with Siemian. You can see he looks over where Sanders is at and thinks about it for a second. Yet it almost looked like he was too afraid to make a critical mistake in that moment that he pulls it down and takes the sack instead. Tough place to find that balance with a young QB like Siemian.

 

[WalkerBoh]

My solution was to tell my kids "only two around the ball at a time." Any others had to move away from the "pile" so to speak. I also had my zones overlap to give more room to roam. Seemed to work well, and the passing improved significantly.

What Siemian needs to learn is when to take the risk. Had he thrown deep, and it was an INT, it acts just like a punt. Doesn't hurt as much as turnovers in the Red Zone or inside one's own 20.

 

[cdumler7]

My solution was to tell my kids "only two around the ball at a time." Any others had to move away from the "pile" so to speak. I also had my zones overlap to give more room to roam. Seemed to work well, and the passing improved significantly.

What Siemian needs to learn is when to take the risk. Had he thrown deep, and it was an INT, it acts just like a punt. Doesn't hurt as much as turnovers in the Red Zone or inside one's own 20.

Ahh might have to put that into our system this year. Our problem is our season is so short and unpredictable because of weather in the spring with the young ones that it is hard to get much accomplished beyond just learning the basics. Learning positions is a little ways down the line of priorities. I'm hoping to sit down with some of the coaches that coach the even younger group and see what they are actually teaching them because honestly when I get them in 3rd grade I'm not seeing as much as I would like. But then again it is about the fun so maybe that is about all the focus on for the younger ones.

And you are right Siemian needs to know that throwing that deep pass is no worse than a punt in that situation. Honestly it might have been even better than a punt as Dixon decided to have his worst punt of the game the next play. Like I said there was plenty of good that we saw from Siemian. Just need to see him continue to grow. His stat line for this game was fine for week 1 but by week 4 if he continues with that type of play I won't be saying the same thing. With potential comes expectations. He needs to understand that teams will adjust every week with the more film they get on him so he needs to show them he can do more than just throw 15 yards or shorter otherwise he will not be our starter long.

 

[iknowftbll]

And you are right Siemian needs to know that throwing that deep pass is no worse than a punt in that situation. Honestly it might have been even better than a punt as Dixon decided to have his worst punt of the game the next play. Like I said there was plenty of good that we saw from Siemian. Just need to see him continue to grow. His stat line for this game was fine for week 1 but by week 4 if he continues with that type of play I won't be saying the same thing. With potential comes expectations. He needs to understand that teams will adjust every week with the more film they get on him so he needs to show them he can do more than just throw 15 yards or shorter otherwise he will not be our starter long.

I agree, and I think it's reasonable to expect he'll do so. I keep saying that not every opponent is as good as the Panthers. And obviously, not every start will be his first start. The critiques on his performance are good critiques but let's keep them in context. This isn't a 7 or 8 year veteran. I think we've got something to build on here, and am eager to see how well the team is able to do so.

 

[cdumler7]

I agree, and I think it's reasonable to expect he'll do so. I keep saying that not every opponent is as good as the Panthers. And obviously, not every start will be his first start. The critiques on his performance are good critiques but let's keep them in context. This isn't a 7 or 8 year veteran. I think we've got something to build on here, and am eager to see how well the team is able to do so.

Oh I agree that we need to keep this in context. I can't expect an All-Pro QB day 1. No QB ever is. It is why we can be upset at Manning last year for putting up similar numbers in games but our team still winning compared to be somewhat excited about Siemian.

Here is my biggest worry though. We saw this was Osweiler last year. After teams got some tape on him he began to struggle. Honestly Osweiler's best game in the NFL was his first official start against the Bears. After that was quite a bit of inconsistency in what he would show on the field. We would see him do pretty well in the 1st half of games then struggle once teams made adjustments to what we were doing in the game.

So Siemian has to grow his game and add some more wrinkles like the deep ball and being able to hit the pass down the middle of the field. Most everything this past week was to the sideline. If we can see those adjustments in his game then I think he could last as the starter the rest of the year. If all we keep seeing those is these quick outs then I don't think he makes it past week 4 of this season. Unfortunately for Siemian he continues to draw the short stick. With a 1st round QB behind him on the depth chart he has to grow up quickly. Even a promising 1st week only adds a little bit of time to his NFL starting clock.

 

[iknowftbll]

I share the concern about Siemian hitting a plateau once teams get tape on him. Osweiler led the Broncos to a 5-2 record, but that fifth win was really Manning coming in and saving the team's bacon in the season finale. In games against the Chargers, Raiders, and Steelers Osweiler led the Broncos to three straight second half shutouts. But after that he also managed a win over the Bengals after trailing 14-0. So even in that example there is reason to be excited: a QB can be expected to improve as he goes along.

And let's not forget how the intangibles will play into this. Siemian's confidence in his teammates on both sides of the ball will likely grow as well. If the defense comes out and is laying the wood, Siemian is more likely to take a sack than heave it up there for anyone to grab. If his confidence in his teammates grows (he's voiced confidence but there's nothing like watching his teammates play to really drive it home) then his confidence in himself will grow. When that happens, the confidence he is doing the little things right, we can probably expect to see the confidence to take that deep shot to Sanders or DT.

 

[cdumler7]

I share the concern about Siemian hitting a plateau once teams get tape on him. Osweiler led the Broncos to a 5-2 record, but that fifth win was really Manning coming in and saving the team's bacon in the season finale. In games against the Chargers, Raiders, and Steelers Osweiler led the Broncos to three straight second half shutouts. But after that he also managed a win over the Bengals after trailing 14-0. So even in that example there is reason to be excited: a QB can be expected to improve as he goes along.

And let's not forget how the intangibles will play into this. Siemian's confidence in his teammates on both sides of the ball will likely grow as well. If the defense comes out and is laying the wood, Siemian is more likely to take a sack than heave it up there for anyone to grab. If his confidence in his teammates grows (he's voiced confidence but there's nothing like watching his teammates play to really drive it home) then his confidence in himself will grow. When that happens, the confidence he is doing the little things right, we can probably expect to see the confidence to take that deep shot to Sanders or DT.

I hope you are right. I'm not hoping for failure for Siemian. I would never do that for any Bronco player. And as all of you I have seen some very good in his game. I've just seen a lot to worry about as well and I just worry his ceiling is that of an average QB. Which hey this season honestly average would be a breath of fresh air after what we watched last year. I have said from day 1 that if the Broncos got average QB play this season we would be a big time Super Bowl threat. And honestly I wouldn't mind Lynch sitting on the bench for a year learning our scheme and growing with his teammates. I still think though Lynch is our future and the guy with easily the highest ceiling. I see a more athletic Big Ben in him.

 

[iknowftbll]

I hope you are right. I'm not hoping for failure for Siemian. I would never do that for any Bronco player. And as all of you I have seen some very good in his game. I've just seen a lot to worry about as well and I just worry his ceiling is that of an average QB. Which hey this season honestly average would be a breath of fresh air after what we watched last year. I have said from day 1 that if the Broncos got average QB play this season we would be a big time Super Bowl threat. And honestly I wouldn't mind Lynch sitting on the bench for a year learning our scheme and growing with his teammates. I still think though Lynch is our future and the guy with easily the highest ceiling. I see a more athletic Big Ben in him.

I don't think we should expect 4000+ yards, 35 TDs and only 10 INTs from Siemian. That kind of production would be nice, but it's just not going to happen. I am thinking something more like 3300-21-13 or so. That's average in today's NFL and from a production stated point would be superior to last year's combined 4200-19-23. Of course, that's a top-line view. Breaking it into the situational stats would be a better measure of productivity and so far Siemian is just as good in that regard. For example, I believe he converted on 3rd down with his feet on 3 occasions.

Now the key is this. He may ride an average line all season. There may not be a single 350 yard 4 TD game from him this year, and realistically there will probably be an ugly putting along the way too. So there may not be that signature game THIS SEASON that tells us "this is the Broncos QB for the foreseeable future." Suppose Siemian gives us the kind of numbers I've projected and the team finishes in the playoffs, but fails to reach the Super Bowl. (I find this to be a very reasonable prediction for this team.) Do we believe that production is worthy of building on in a subsequent year as a starter? Is it reasonable to believe Siemian would benefit from a complete off season program as the pencilled in starter? Could we expect that 4000-30-10 season from in in 2017?

If he has a solid 2016 I am personally willing to find out.

 

[Mingo]

I expect a HOF career and the waiving of the 5 year waiting period for induction.

 

[CEH]

Many have said he did not make any bad decisions Thursday night
Kept 2 drives alive with his legs
The first Int was not understanding the abilities of the D lineman
The 2nd was not having enough time but the play was there had Booker moved over to pick up his blitz assignment

I would think 19-26 200 yards 1 to 1 TD to Int ratio will be his average game with maybe 2 games over 300 yards.

Opposing offenses will put up a similar passing stat line so it comes down to running the ball at around 4 yards a clip and keeping the opponent to about 3.6 ypc.

Think Joe Flacco 2008. Top 3 defense and top 11 offense right around that 24 ppg mark and a 11-5 mark.

 

[DJ Fieri]

It's 1 game. Where he threw 2 INT's and almost threw 2 more.

Mark Sanchez when he was with the Jets is about what I think he'd compare to when they had a dominant defense and a good ruunning game.

Not sure what they were thinking having him start out throwing 4 times in a row. They should have eased him in handing off the ball and throwing a little later.

 

[iknowftbll]

It's 1 game. Where he threw 2 INT's and almost threw 2 more.

Mark Sanchez when he was with the Jets is about what I think he'd compare to when they had a dominant defense and a good ruunning game.

Not sure what they were thinking having him start out throwing 4 times in a row. They should have eased him in handing off the ball and throwing a little later.

It certainly worked out though. The first drive looked good and didn't end on a pick but a fumble on a carry by the rookie Booker.