THIS is worth second round?

[Brees#1]

Giovani Bernard Game By Game Stats and Performance - Cincinnati Bengals - ESPN


Week 1-5 points
Week 4-6 points
Week 5-4 points
Week 7-5 points
Week 8-1 point
Week 11-8 points
Week 13-5 points
Week 16-6 points

Exactly how is this kind of production worth the second round? His best weeks were weeks 2(19), 3(15), 6(15), 9(21), 10(14), and 14(13, no TD). And a borderline 10 at Pittsburgh week 15. I mean the big weeks stand out but the weeks where he wasn't big he's only giving a maximum of 8 points. He was not consistent last year and yet he is ranked in the second round and I highly doubt it is because of HJ being the OC. How much better does his production become with HJ? I remember McFadden had some average weeks under HJ in 2010. He peaked in the Denver game, and after that had 10 or less over the next four games before getting a lucky fourth q TD at San Diego and going off in the passing game at Jacksonville.

 

[bksballer89]

lol hype

 

[TKOSpikes]

Seven double digit weeks for a rookie isn't bad. Especially for a "back up" RB. I think everyone expects an up tick in touches this year, and rightfully so... but if you pass in round two, are you talking about another RB, or another position, because I don't see much more production from any other "2nd round RB".

 

[averagejoe]

I highly doubt it is because of HJ being the OC. How much better does his production become with HJ?

1) Bernard split time with BJGE. And BJGE had 220 rush attempts compared to Bernard's 170. (56/44 split)
2) Bernard averaged 4.1 ypc.
3) When Hue Jackson was the OC/HC in Oakland, his rushing attempts ranked 4th (504) in 2010 and 7th (466) in 2011. That's an average of 485 rushes. (Incidentally, the Raiders had the 2nd-best ground game in 2010 - by committee w/ McFadden/Bush. And in 2011, the Raiders were 7th in the NFL in rushing yards.)

So based on this, if Bernard swaps roles with BJGE and gets 60% of the carries in a HJ offense, you could be looking at about 290 carries. With Bernard's 4.1 ypc, that equals 1189 yards.

If Bernard gets more attempts, like 70% of the carries, that's a whopping 339 carries, or 1389 yards. Theoretically.

 

[TREFF]

1) Bernard split time with BJGE. And BJGE had 220 rush attempts compared to Bernard's 170. (56/44 split)
2) Bernard averaged 4.1 ypc.
3) When Hue Jackson was the OC/HC in Oakland, his rushing attempts ranked 4th (504) in 2010 and 7th (466) in 2011. That's an average of 485 rushes. (Incidentally, the Raiders had the 2nd-best ground game in 2010 - by committee w/ McFadden/Bush. And in 2011, the Raiders were 7th in the NFL in rushing yards.)

So based on this, if Bernard swaps roles with BJGE and gets 60% of the carries in a HJ offense, you could be looking at about 290 carries. With Bernard's 4.1 ypc, that equals 1189 yards.

If Bernard gets more attempts, like 70% of the carries, that's a whopping 339 carries, or 1389 yards. Theoretically.

Nuff said right there. . And that's not even taking into account the fact that with one year under the belt, at least a minimal increase in production should be expected.

 

[Brees#1]

Seven double digit weeks for a rookie isn't bad. Especially for a "back up" RB. I think everyone expects an up tick in touches this year, and rightfully so... but if you pass in round two, are you talking about another RB, or another position, because I don't see much more production from any other "2nd round RB".

Well there's Stacy. If Bradford actually hands him the ball enough he should get 100 yards rushing most games. Personally I may just take a receiver in the second or a tightend. I'll draft points and then make trades to fix any imbalances.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

the question with benard is his durability... his size and bodyframe is not ideal to be a bellcow... So the question is can he get enough touches to warrant the top 20 pick that he is projected at...

He definitely has the talent to be an elite runner(especially in PPR leagues)...

 

[Brees#1]

Well I understand if thats why but if those numbers I listed happen this year he is not worth the draft pick at second. I don't plan to draft him, I planned to draft AJ Green as the sole bengal but now I'm hearing he may not be as targeted with HJ's offense.

 

[averagejoe]

Well, that's part of the attraction for Bernard. Hue is run-first guy. He's got history to prove it. Hue said he plans to run more. And now he's got a shiny new RB as well.

Sure he's small. 5'-9" 202. But it's not like a lot of other backs are monstrously bigger compared to Bernard. Many others are about 5-10 or 5-11, give or take a few pounds. Very few are taller than 6'-0". So I'm not sold on the size argument.

 

[TREFF]

Well I understand if thats why but if those numbers I listed happen this year he is not worth the draft pick at second. I don't plan to draft him, I planned to draft AJ Green as the sole bengal but now I'm hearing he may not be as targeted with HJ's offense.

If last years numbers are all that matters during draft day....
Andy Dalton should be the third Qb drafted, Rivers the fourth. Knowshon Moreno is a top five RB and a lock for the first 6-7 picks, Eric Decker should be the seventh WR taken.

See how ridiculous this is beginning to sound? And I haven't even brought up Josh GOrdon, Aaron Rodgers or Peterson

 

[RazorsEdge]

Well, that's part of the attraction for Bernard. Hue is run-first guy. He's got history to prove it. Hue said he plans to run more. And now he's got a shiny new RB as well.

Sure he's small. 5'-9" 202. But it's not like a lot of other backs are monstrously bigger compared to Bernard. Many others are about 5-10 or 5-11, give or take a few pounds. Very few are taller than 6'-0". So I'm not sold on the size argument.

Agree. Bernard is also in ridiculous shape and very smart. I think he will be more durable than some of the bigger guys.

 

[wilwhite]

Last year he was the #18 RB. Nobody's planning on drafting the #18 RB in the second round, so obviously they think something is different.

I don't really buy it. I expect his usage to go up, but not like other people are expecting. As I mentioned elsewhere, the Bengals drafted a back and held on to LawFirm. If they didn't give Bernard more carries late last year, I'm not sure why they would now. (By the way, did you see who was QBing the Raiders when Hue was running all the time? That was a mess and a half. Gradkowski: Hue, can I throw the ball on the next play? Hue: Uh, why don't you hand it off again. or Carson: Hey, that was a pretty nice pass. Hue: Um, our guys don't wear orange, Carson.)

 

[TREFF]

Last year he was the #18 RB. Nobody's planning on drafting the #18 RB in the second round, so obviously they think something is different.

I don't really buy it. I expect his usage to go up, but not like other people are expecting. As I mentioned elsewhere, the Bengals drafted a back and held on to LawFirm. If they didn't give Bernard more carries late last year, I'm not sure why they would now. (By the way, did you see who was QBing the Raiders when Hue was running all the time? That was a mess and a half. Gradkowski: Hue, can I throw the ball on the next play? Hue: Uh, why don't you hand it off again. or Carson: Hey, that was a pretty nice pass. Hue: Um, our guys don't wear orange, Carson.)

I dunno Will, everything I've heard suggests the law firm is in a battle for a roster spot with Rex Burkhead. I have serious reservations that he's even in consideration for keeping half his role from last year.

BTW, Rex is a helluvalot cheaper, plays special teams coverage, and is a decent punt/kick returner. I'd be shocked if LawFirm is even on the team when they break camp.

 

[wilwhite]

I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not sure you want to have only rookies and last year's rookies at RB.

But whether it's LawFirm or not, I wonder why Bernard didn't get the carries last year - and if it was Gruden's fault and Lewis didn't intervene, is Hue going to see something in him that Gruden didn't?

 

[TREFF]

I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not sure you want to have only rookies and last year's rookies at RB.

But whether it's LawFirm or not, I wonder why Bernard didn't get the carries last year - and if it was Gruden's fault and Lewis didn't intervene, is Hue going to see something in him that Gruden didn't?

I certainly hope he does, it was nearly painful to watch a plodding BJGE ram into the defensive line agian and agian when you just knew that Gio had the much better chance at making a play. One thing that I'm banking on, and I really hope this is the case, perhaps that something that was missing, or that Gruden/Lewis didn't see, is something that was learned during the offseason and is there, on display this year. I mean the dude was a rookie last year, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for him to pick up whatever it was he was missing with film study/practice time.

 

[wilwhite]

That's exactly the rub - his ADP means people are treating it like a certainty that he will get a lot more carries, but I see it as speculation (based on what we think should happen, but the Bengals haven't shown yet that they agree with us).

Fantasy Football Calculator has him as the 11th RB in ADP. I'd have him a few spots lower, which would probably push him to the third round.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'll chime in with a few thoughts since I've been looking closely at keeping Gio in another league.

1) He was a rookie last year, and wasn't the starting RB, but now he is the starting RB.
2) I have him in my 2nd tier of RBs, most of those guys have at least 1 question mark that they are carrying into this year's draft. NONE of them are sure things.
3) Cincy has been a team on the rise the past 3 seasons. Defense is stout, offense is decent, and looking to run a lot more this season. Those are all good things for Gio.
4) He will be on the field in most all of the passing situations, where the safeties will be focused on Green, and we all agree that Gio is dangerous if he gets the ball in space. Definitely a home run hitter, which always gets a bump on draft day by someone, even if you care to admit it or not.

Very interesting that you bring up Stacy, when his season wasn't filled with consistency either.
You take away a couple GL plunges and his season doesn't look very spectacular either.

People draft players based on their projected workloads, and at this point in time, those projected workloads are mostly made up of opinion. Just cause you are down on Gio doesn't mean that someone else can't be high on him.

2nd Round RBs:
Alf Morris - some think WAS is becoming more and more of a RBBC this year. He never played passing downs with the Satanahans, is that going to change with Gruden? What if RGIII never returns to rookie season form?
DeMarco Murray - can he stay healthy for more than 3 games in a row?
Doug Martin - RBBC nightmare going on in TB, and the injury recovery. Lovie did Forte no favors when he brought Bush in from OAK, even if Bush didn't do jack in CHI, he still took touches away from the far superior RB. Now they drafted Sims.
LeVeon Bell - say what you want about Blount-man, he has a knack for becoming relevant. Who even knew who he was until he punched that guy in college? That guy will literally do anything to steal the show. Also had an injury-filled rookie year.
Zac Stacy - people already want to say Mason is the more gifted runner, and the guy hasn't even played in a full-contact practice yet. Also, we don't even really know what the Bradford-Stacy dynamic is going to be yet. Stacy took all those carries from a Kellen Clemons last year, not Sam the Ram. I'd say Stacy is the best bet of this group. but that is b/c I don't believe in the Mason hype, at least not in yr 1 for a RB that has never pass blocked in his life and is playing in the NFC West.

When discussing this group, it's all about personal preference, imo. But here's how I'd rank them right now:
Gio>Bell>Stacy>Murray>Morris>Martin

But I'm obviously not high on Martin.

 

[Bandit]

When discussing this group, it's all about personal preference, imo. But here's how I'd rank them right now:
Gio>Bell>Stacy>Murray>Morris>Martin

But I'm obviously not high on Martin.

Great post Monkey and I agree totally that those are the 2nd round running backs unless Foster falls that far which he has in some mocks as he is right there at #12 or #13 overall. If we include Foster also, my rankings of those 7 would be Foster>Murray>Martin>Bell>Gio>Morris>Stacy. Honestly I think Murray has the biggest upside of the whole group, but Dallas sometimes decides that they aren't going to run the ball in some games even when they are averaging 10 yards a carry. Gio scares me in the 2nd round and if the guys I have ahead of him are gone at running back, I am probably going wide receiver for the value there anyway and Gio, Morris, and Stacy are going to fall to the 3rd round in my rankings.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Good stuff Monkey. Couldn't agree more! I likely will own NONE of them.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Good stuff Monkey. Couldn't agree more! I likely will own NONE of them.

Very true. Ideally, I'd like one of the stud RBs followed up by 2 top 15 WRs. But that's not always how the drafts go, especially with this bunch!
All these "2nd round" guys could be gone by pick 18 if we get a good ol'fashion MBBRL RB run going on in this year's draft.