Direction to go this year?

[Brees#1]

I think you've been given some very good advise from Joe, Treff and Tlance - take it to heart. I'll offer just one more bit when it comes to 'handcuffs'. If you draft a clear cut starter at WR and/or RB - don't do it unless you have very deep benches. The drop off in talent is just too great, plus you are losing a roster spot to a guy you hope never sees the field. Remember backups are backups for a reason and that is most likely lack of talent or injury prone. Generally they can be picked up on waivers if you must. You are far better off getting one side of a committee - at least you know they'll play.
On the contrary, it may be worthwhile to draft both guys in clear cut committee situations if you can get it done in the mid to late rounds.
Also, from personal experience, if you jump early for a top DST (and I mean prior to rd 9 or 10) there is no value added in jumping to grab another top DST. Over thinking matchups will likely lead to disappointment. Happened to me last year when I abandoned the Panthers (playing Saints at the dome) - cost me a championship.

I don't recall the panthers doing well in that game. Saints won that in a blowout.

 

[TREFF]

I don't recall the panthers doing well in that game. Saints won that in a blowout.

If the game cost him a championship, my guess it was week 16..A game the Panthers won 17-13. May have had the home/away swapped around in his memory, but doubtful that a week 14 game costs anyone a championship, even though it might knock them out of the playoffs

 

[Brees#1]

I think the only given 1st round QB in a standard scoring league, is Peyton (and even there I'd be wary, no one had back to back years like that and expectations are ridiculously high). But, I wouldn't laugh at anyone who reached on either Brees or Rodgers towards the end of one. Luck, however, is a different story

I had Luck last year. And other than week 7 and 9, he was a letdown.

In my league here was what the champion drafted last year
1.Peterson
2.Jackson(Stephen)
3.Manning
4.Bowe
5.Welker
6.Jennings
7.?
8.Cameron(jumped due to preseason)
9.?
10.Jackson(Fred)
He has drafted steelers defense I believe. Though week 4 he traded Bowe, Jennings, Fred, Mendenhall for Wayne and Gore. Wayne's injury made that deal not look so bad. The other guy had Spiller so he wanted Fred as well. But he snatched up rams defense and their week 15 and 16 performances paid off for him.

Then the previous year this guy(and my closest fantasy competitor through social media) drafted this team
1.Foster
2.Marshall
3.Welker
4.Eli
5.?
6.Mendenhall
7.Wayne
8.Broncos
9.Desean
10.?
He was mad someone jumped for Manning in the third, that he planned to trade for Manning by trading for Brady. He traded Marshall, Welker, Eli, and David Wilson for Brady, D Thomas, Tamme, and someone else I cannot remember. He ended up picking up Morris in the preseason because his brother is a redskins' fan so he gained on rb, and still had receiving strength after the deal. Later in the season he traded Brady for Manning. Other than Foster tailing off down the stretch, Morris picked up his slack, he had Manning and won a close championship over the 1 seed(he was 2).

And the year before that was my championship but I gave it away
1.McCoy
2.Brees
3.Vincent
4.Davis(Gronk 12th)
5.Williams
6.Ocho
7.Eagles
8.Steve Smith
9.Stewart
10.?
First three picks I drafted elite RB, QB, WR. And Gronk emerged as my starting tightend while Davis stayed on my bench mostly after week 2. I had no.3 receiver problems and no.2 rb problems that got solved week 9 by picking up Reggie and Robinson. The defense and kicking burned me and I lost the championship because I streamed Denver and Prater at Buffalo in addition to Robinson getting no targets when Romo got hurt and Jackson having a off game as during this season he was off every other two weeks and would go off once after every two. But that was my championship and I gave it away.


Based on these formulas, I went one of each first four rounds, the first one went two RBs, QB, and 3 receivers where only one did anything productive. But Manning, Welker, AP, Cameron carried him early on until he traded basically for Gore. The second one probably does not win before his deal, so after his deal he has RB, QB, WR, WR he is still receiver heavy with Foster and Brady, a top five defense in Denver, Prater, and his championship is cemented by the preseason pickup of Morris.

So based off of these getting rb first is obvious, but in my league its going to be a one player keeper from previous year and I am keeping Rodgers so I will hope to have Foster available to draft or Lacy(as JC is also on that owner's team), if there is no rb worth is ranking available I will have to go for a elite receiver, then grab Ellington(who I'm not crazy about based on schedule) or Stacy in the third, the BPA among receiver, back, tightend in fourth, whoever I didnt get in fourth in fifth.

Like maybe this would work
Rodgers
Foster/Marshall
Cobb/Stacy/Allen
Cruz/Welker/Sankey/Stacy
Sankey/Gronk/Davis/Hilton(who is not the no.1 yet for Indy)/Ridley
MJD/Floyd(cards)/Benjamin/Patterson/Matthews

I could have Rodgers at QB, Foster and Stacy at RB, Cruz-Patterson/Wayne at receiver, flex with Ridley or Sankey, Gronk or Cameron(if he falls to 7) at tightend, rams defense(10)......would that work?



I'm going to do more mocks and post them here. I plan to do a two a week to not go overboard. I haven't done any this week.

 

[Brees#1]

Oh, and Its hard to play matchups with most no.2 receivers and rbs. I do not trust anyone on the jets, bengals, panthers so I do not plan to draft Johnson, BGE, Benard, Williams, or Stewart for RBs. I also don't like drafting non starters before round 11. I have always drafted players mid rounds that I believe were true starters but injury caused them to slip. Like Gordon last year but due to other problems, Desean last year(who I didnt get), Matthews last year. I always aim for those.

 

[TREFF]

Oh, and Its hard to play matchups with most no.2 receivers and rbs. I do not trust anyone on the jets, bengals, panthers so I do not plan to draft Johnson, BGE, Benard, Williams, or Stewart for RBs. I also don't like drafting non starters before round 11. I have always drafted players mid rounds that I believe were true starters but injury caused them to slip. Like Gordon last year but due to other problems, Desean last year(who I didnt get), Matthews last year. I always aim for those.

??

If you talking about non NFL starters, all I got for ya is a hearty, "well no shat!"
No one drafts backups/lesser halves of a committee before the late rounds. . At least not anyone who consistently wins

 

[TREFF]

Like maybe this would work
Rodgers
Foster/Marshall
Cobb/Stacy/Allen
Cruz/Welker/Sankey/Stacy
Sankey/Gronk/Davis/Hilton(who is not the no.1 yet for Indy)/Ridley
MJD/Floyd(cards)/Benjamin/Patterson/Matthews
.

I'm not even going to address the previous part of this post, as the its easy to point to the big lottery winner as evidence of a theory (e.i. getting 50+ TD passes out of a third round pick last season)

But as for this strategy. . Some major flaws, assuming the rest of your league has a clue:
Stacy won't be around in the third, be lucky if he makes it anywhere near the middle of the second. Let alone the 4th.
Neither Gronk nor Sankey will be around in the 5th.
Ridley in the 5th? Thought you didn't like non starters before the 11th?
MJD isn't even worth considering until the latter rounds, even if he does have anything in the tank, he's at best splitting with DMC and both of them are playing in Oakland, and both are big injury risks.
Mathews and Patterson will have been off the boards for at least 2 rounds, probably more.

And that's just off the top of my head. If you go into the Draft thinking you can build a team like this your going to be VERY disappointed. .or you play with 11 imbeciles, and don't need advice anyways

 

[Brees#1]

Ridley is the number 1 in NE, he tailed off late last year but did have some good weeks. He doesn't have Blount now either. taking carries. I believe he has Vereen. I'll see what's there.

 

[TREFF]

Ridley is the number 1 in NE, he tailed off late last year but did have some good weeks. He doesn't have Blount now either. taking carries. I believe he has Vereen. I'll see what's there.

Ya might wanna check again. By Any realistic accounts, Vareen is the #1, Ridley did that to himself last year and has to win the job back, until then, he's the change of pace back, and if he can't improve on short yardage, he may lose that as well. All about the fumbles.

 

[tlance]

Ridley is the number 1 in NE, he tailed off late last year but did have some good weeks. He doesn't have Blount now either. taking carries. I believe he has Vereen. I'll see what's there.

Brees,

You seem to be locking in on specific players rather than waiting and seeing who the best available might be.

While this is normally a bad idea during drafts, it is especially bad when the majority of the players you target are guys whose best days are in the past. The youngsters that you have on your list (like Patterson) are way off from where you would actually need to draft them in a competitive league. Patterson will be gone by the end of the fourth in every league with experienced drafters unless something happens to drastically alter his value.

Chill on the mocks and read some expert analysis from different sites to help you learn more about the less heralded guys who are up and comers. Most importantly though, when you read this analysis, you need to do so with an open mind. In past experience on these boards, I have noticed that you tend to hear the advice, but it does not necessarily change your approach. If you want to be more successful in these leagues, you need to change the way that you think and the way you evaluate players.

Just remember, past stats will never help you win. You need the guys who are going to produce THIS year. Just because somebody was a stud in 2012, does not mean he is still capable of big fantasy numbers.

 

[Brees#1]

Well tbh I have been much better in football, it has been my main league that last two years I have not been where I would like. With that said before I read this I just did another mock. This one I think I did better in.
1.Lacy
2.Brees
3.Cobb
4.Gore
5.Watkins
6.Sankey
7.Cameron
8.Boldin
9.Rams d/st
10.Cooks
11.Green(Ladarius)
12.Prater
13.Matthews(Jordan)
14.Andre Williams
15.Lattimore
16.Lee

Here I aimed for early rb strength with Lacy, Gore, and Sankey(who I was able to get in 6th), took Cobb in 3rd because I believe when healthy he is the number 1 in GB, and rounded out my receiving by getting the rookies that have breakout potential along with Boldin, the deep threat in SF. Elsewhere I did go a little early with kicker but the rbs left I didnt like enough. All were nothing to me but injury replacements. I however mistaked Andre Williams for Andre Brown. And I got Cameron for tightend, and backed him up with Green in case Cameron doesnt pick up where he left off with Hoyer's injury and Gates has to pass the torch at some point.
QB-Brees
RB-Lacy, Gore
WR-Cobb, Watkins
TE-Cameron
Flex-Sankey, Boldin, Cooks, Matthews, or Lee
DST-Rams
PK-Prater
Bench-four of the five flex options, Green, Lattimore, Williams.

 

[TREFF]

Sammy Watkins, the rookie WR for the offensively challenged Bills.. In the 5th?? And a slightly better than average defense in the 9th??

Well, I'm done. Your obviously just here for the conversation, because you don't take any advice to heart

 

[Brees#1]

Unless you have inside proof that the jets and dolphins will give Miller and Johnson the ball 20 times a game what am I supposed to do?

And honestly wide receivers make immediate impacts. AJ Green and Julio Jones in 2011 come to mind. The NFL has changed from when Johnson was first drafted in 2007. Watkins also played for Clemson and the bills lost Johnson. Its like your saying the top receivers from the recent class is not really as NFL caliber as Green and Jones. I didnt take a chance on Watkins I liked him over the other ones available such as Bowe or Decker or Wallace. Wallace screwed me last year no offense. And its freaking Sammy Watkins I am a gamecocks fan so I know a lot about Clemson I even watched Watkins reels there is no way the bills can deny that guy a starting spot if they want to put up points. He's not the fifth starter, he's going to be the 1. I know an elite wide receiver when I see it and he is clearly going to be elite. I thought he was the best receiver available to me when I drafted. I guess I don't need this boards help for football, I'll do things like what I did before that got me close to winning a title. I have won titles before however, I have four ff titles since 2006 and 8 runner-ups.

And no offense you guys are sportswriters y'all do your drafts a bit differently than others.

 

[Brees#1]

And I have already read the jets are doing a rb by committee. And TB as well.

 

[averagejoe]

One last thought....

And honestly wide receivers make immediate impacts. AJ Green and Julio Jones in 2011 come to mind. The NFL has changed from when Johnson was first drafted in 2007. Watkins also played for Clemson and the bills lost Johnson. ...

Larry Fitzgerald comes to mind too. Outstanding WR on an average offense. As tlance stated earlier, you need to factor in where these guys are landing. Buffalo is no WR paradise. 3103. That's the total yards passing the Bills had last season, ranked 28th.

I know an elite wide receiver when I see it and he is clearly going to be elite.

Same was said of the top college WR Tavon Austin heading into 2013. All of these guys have talent. They wouldn't get to this level if they didn't. But talent and collegiate success are no guarantee that he will be "elite" in the NFL.

There are 119 NCAA Division I schools, but only 32 NFL teams. (And the turnover ratio is low on new players to make the team.)

Let's not forget that camps don't have much contact anymore. If in games, he starts running "his own" routes, or missing blocking assignments, or starts throwing tantrums because they aren't throwing "their top prospect" the ball, his NFL life might be shorter.

 

[Brees#1]

One last thought....



Larry Fitzgerald comes to mind too. Outstanding WR on an average offense. As tlance stated earlier, you need to factor in where these guys are landing. Buffalo is no WR paradise. 3103. That's the total yards passing the Bills had last season, ranked 28th.

Same was said of the top college WR Tavon Austin heading into 2013. All of these guys have talent. They wouldn't get to this level if they didn't. But talent and collegiate success are no guarantee that he will be "elite" in the NFL.

There are 119 NCAA Division I schools, but only 32 NFL teams. (And the turnover ratio is low on new players to make the team.)

Let's not forget that camps don't have much contact anymore. If in games, he starts running "his own" routes, or missing blocking assignments, or starts throwing tantrums because they aren't throwing "their top prospect" the ball, his NFL life might be shorter.

Tavon Austin played for WVU. And that was honestly a weak draft for offensive playmakers that year. Also, Austin is good he's just not getting the targets. This is the problem I had with Bradford, he holds the rams offense back. I believe Clemens game managing was better and helped them win more. Bradford tries to be elite when he is not. I think Manuel is good because he was drafted out of FSU, the ACC develops NFL talent. He and Watkins will develop a rapport. Well the tantrum thing, I honestly think some coaches are to blame for not winning and its not what they field its who they ignore. But as you see I didnt just draft Watkins, I drafted Matthews, Cooks, and Lee as well don't you think one of them will have a big year?

 

[Brees#1]

The SEC and ACC produce the most elite receivers and backs. Simply because they face big defenses during the season and lots of passionate rivalries. The ACC was not as great during DHB's days. Nicks went to the right team to develop also. The best defensive guys come from the big 12 because that is an offensive conference and when there's a defensive player standing out in that(Suh) that says a lot. They also come from the SEC as well because well they are constantly on the field from all the defensive mud slinging.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

draft them like you want, asking for blanket advice on a drafting strategy when you have over 5 seasons of experience is a waste of time. Doing mock drafts on ESPN (or most websites) need to be taken with a grain of salt - you shouldn't be too surprised by now to realize that it is usually easy to build an above average team in those, no matter your draft position. Especially when someone leaves/doesn't show up, and they auto draft from ESPN's staff rankings.

You know your league better than anyone here does, so if you have a winning strategy, roll with it, and share your successes or failures with us. I think most of the folks here have been doing this long enough that they've won and lost many times themselves.

 

[TREFF]

Brees.. no one is saying don't Draft Sammy Watkins.. we're saying don't Draft him while other, more proven, more reliable/consistent options are still there. In the fifth round you can still snag a borderline WR1, strong WR2. IF Watkins is the winning rookie WR lottery ticket this year (and I have no doubts he might be). . He'll still be a fantasy high end #3, bottom tier #2 at best. Which puts him in the 7-10, maybe even later rounds.

Again, we're not telling you your nuts for liking the guys you like, mostly, but rather, you're just not drafting smart, and as we're all trying to help, you're not heeding that advice, so why keep asking? Were glad to help, it's why we come here, but at some point it's just like, "what's the point? "

 

[Brees#1]

Yes I do have experience, but have been in more runner-ups than winning a title. I need to change that which is why I have asked of positional direction in the drafts for this year based on how players are ranked. To me, I need at least most of my first seven picks to pay off with the rest being free agents that turn out to be great unless I have late draft gems like I did last year with Gordon. As everyone knows, last year I ended up with Lynch and my no.2 rb was MJD and the flex was Matthews. But after week 2 I picked up LBell. That said my running game was better than my receiving if Lynch had a good week. But my receiving was not. Cobb's injury could have been bad for me, but I had picked up Allen in FA and had already drafted Gordon. At that point Allen however was inconsistent. I had a good tightend in Thomas I picked up as well two days before the opener, but he wasnt exactly in Gronk or Graham's league just week to week TDs. With that said, last two years I have been a little worser in my top league because of not having an elite qb. I can get back to postseason with production out of my top picks and having a top QB and possibly title game again. But I'm aiming for championship and I just simply wondered about who to go after first, and who to neglect(tightend, top defense).

I did one more draft last night and will not do another until next week or after that if the plans I made for the real world come to fruition.
QB-Rodgers(1st)
RB-Foster(2nd), Sankey(6th)
WR-VJac(3rd), Allen(4th)
Flex-Welker(5th)
TE-Cameron(7th)
DST-Patriots(9th)
K-Walsh(16th)

 

[Brees#1]

Which scenario you like best? This is my plan

First draft plan
Marshall
Gronk
Johnson
Gore
Decker or Sanders
Watkins
Hyde
Defense
I would have solid QB, a top WR with two other number 1s. And I plan to draft some others late. I will get CJ2K and hope Hyde or Gore becomes a clearcut no.1 or I will play matchups. Gronk when healthy is a great tightend and I will back him up with LGreen or Ertz if he's there in round 10.

Second draft plan
Stacy
Cobb or Fitzgerald
Patterson or Cruz
Gore
Decker or Sanders
Watkins or Hyde
Ertz or Hyde
Defense
In this situation, I'd be set well at receiver, have a solid starting back and would jump on Mason in 10th in case its his job. However I am going to have to punt Watkins or the tightend spot because I have to have Hyde.

Third draft plan
Nelson
Cobb
Johnson
Gore
Decker or Sanders
Watkins or Hyde
Ertz or Hyde
Defense
Here, once again solid receiving and maybe a bit better than the 2nd. The RB is the same as scenario 1 and I will still be in the same position of forgoing Watkins or tightend value.

When it comes to 1 and 3 this is based on where my draft spot is. If I am early second, of course its Marshall or Stacy. If late, its Nelson or Stacy.