So, who is the early favorite for SB?

[Logicallylethal]

Hard to predict anything pre-draft but this is how I view teams trending next season

Team that will be better

- Atlanta Falcons (fully healthy offense + high draft picks)
- Green Bay Packers (Rodgers + Cobb healthy and beast mode jr)
- Houston Texans (team has talent + can't be worse than last year)
- Washington Redskins (healthy rg3 + desean)

Teams that will regress

- Carolina Panthers (overachieved a bit + many losses in the off season)
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-0 vs under .500, 1-6 vs over .500)

Dark Horses

- Arizona Cardinals (8-2 outside the NFC West)
- Buffalo Bills (Good defense, but CJ Spiller and EJ Manuel needs to be healthy)
- St Louis Rams (top picks + good defense)
- Chicago Bears (twin towers at wr + defense should be better)

Could Go Either Way

- New York Jets (New additions of Vick and CJ1K could improve team, or they can still be mediocre)
- Baltimore Ravens (question mark with ray rice)
- Detroit Lions (The talent is there, but team continues to underachieve each year)


Everyone else (top teams/bottom teams) should stay about the same

 

[sonnyblack65]

you must have wanted to see what was dangling awwffuuullllyyyy bad

They say curiousty killed the cat. He should have lent those little nads to Peyton, so he had some in SB

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Dark Horses

Buffalo Bills (Good defense, but CJ Spiller and EJ Manuel needs to be healthy)

Wow. You're picking my Buffalo Bills as a dark horse. I applaud you, sir. I didn't know people thought the Bills still existed.

 

[gowazzu02]

Wow. You're picking my Buffalo Bills as a dark horse. I applaud you, sir. I didn't know people thought the Bills still existed.

Id love to see buffalo be good again.

 

[mcnabb7542]

They say curiousty killed the cat. He should have lent those little nads to Peyton, so he had some in SB

Grab Face and lets highjack this bitch.....

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Id love to see buffalo be good again.

Thanks. I am 31 years old. The last time I saw them get into the playoffs was when I was a junior in High School.

I really hope we make it into the playoffs this year, and I hope somebody like Donald Trump buys the team.

 

[sonnyblack65]

Grab Face and lets highjack this bitch.....

sure thing. get the micro brews popping

 

[sonnyblack65]

Wow. You're picking my Buffalo Bills as a dark horse. I applaud you, sir. I didn't know people thought the Bills still existed.

I wouldnt mind seeing Buffalo win it and have Jim Kelly honored if he still with us Dud I was lucky enough to go the Buffalo's first 3 SB's, wishing they won the first vs Giants

 

[J_E_T_S]

AFCCG: Denver vs NE, where I don't know.......winner of that game loses to Seattle.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Seahawks fans:

It's not that people think any one team has a better chance than the Seahawks. They are the favorites. But what people are saying is that a team or two that we don't know of yet will emerge like it happens every year. And that team or two is people's prediction of the team that will win it.

Right now Seattle has a better chance than every other team as individuals. But they DO NOT have a better chance than every other team combined.

Do you understand this logic?

 

[gowazzu02]

Seahawks fans:

It's not that people think any one team has a better chance than the Seahawks. They are the favorites. But what people are saying is that a team or two that we don't know of yet will emerge like it happens every year. And that team or two is people's prediction of the team that will win it.

Right now Seattle has a better chance than every other team as individuals. But they DO NOT have a better chance than every other team combined.

Do you understand this logic?

Not really, if you pick any team vs the field obvi the field is the favorite, but if you say who has a better shot seattle or xyz,,,,then the answer atleast right now is seattle.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Not really, if you pick any team vs the field obvi the field is the favorite, but if you say who has a better shot seattle or xyz,,,,then the answer atleast right now is seattle.

It's like when Tiger was in his prime and some analysts would pick other players to win some majors. It's not that they think that particular player had a better chance than Tiger. It was they were picking the field and were giving their best guess at a player that they thought would play well on the given course.

So if someone picks the Bears, it's not that they think the Bears right now are better than the Seahawks or they have a better statistical chance than the Seahawks. They are picking that a team will emerge into a contender and think that team is the Bears.

The Seahawks and Broncos are both 6/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. That means that Vegas thinks there is a 2/3rds chance that someone ANYONE will win it other than those teams. But any one single team is far less likely.

So this modes make sense to you right?

 

[Logicallylethal]

I get what Pumpkin is saying

It's like someone picking Adam Scott or Rory Mcilroy before they emerged as contenders

Honestly, this thread would be dead boring if everyone just answered politically correct with Seahawks, Broncos, Pats, etc (teams with best vegas odds)

 

[Southieinnc]

The point was you are making arbitrary lists of likely teams and not putting either of the SB teams on it simply because it is rare they repeat. Just because they don't always come back you have already entirely dismissed them and not even included a small chance they come back. Instead more longer shot teams have a better chance only because they weren't in the SB last year.

I think he was just challenging that questionable logic.

I got into a lengthy discussion about this subject last year. He picked Ravens 49'ers to repeat.
I said it was extremly unlikely that would happen.
Repeat SB champs just don't happen.
For this reason, I think that although the Seahawks are champs and favorites, they won't repeat.
So who is going to knock them off? Knee-jerk say 49ers or Denver. Not buying that either.....

 

[bksballer89]

The 2 teams who played in the superbowl are still the favorites in their respective conferences but I will make a bold prediction and say that Seattle will not be the top seed entering the playoffs

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

I think teams don't repeat (often) for a number of reasons.

1. Salary cap and players wanting to get paid after performing well. This breaks teams up a bit at times.

2. Injuries to key players are random and can bite teams that were good in the past.

3. Other teams circling the Champions on their calendar making sure they give that team their all.

4. Other teams improving year to year into contenders.

5. Just the craziness that is the NFL. It's why we love it so much.

 

[Southieinnc]

I think teams don't repeat (often) for a number of reasons.

1. Salary cap and players wanting to get paid after performing well. This breaks teams up a bit at times.

2. Injuries to key players are random and can bite teams that were good in the past.

3. Other teams circling the Champions on their calendar making sure they give that team their all.

4. Other teams improving year to year into contenders.

5. Just the craziness that is the NFL. It's why we love it so much.

Add 6. Good luck and good bounces help you win the SB. Good luck rarely repeats. It is not a round ball......

 

[SonnyCID]

I get what Pumpkin is saying

It's like someone picking Adam Scott or Rory Mcilroy before they emerged as contenders

Honestly, this thread would be dead boring if everyone just answered politically correct with Seahawks, Broncos, Pats, etc (teams with best vegas odds)

Yeah, but saying Mclroy or Scott will win is different than just saying that Tiger wont win. Nobody is really even projecting who they think will win in this thread, just who they think wont.

 

[SonnyCID]

I think teams don't repeat (often) for a number of reasons.

1. Salary cap and players wanting to get paid after performing well. This breaks teams up a bit at times.

2. Injuries to key players are random and can bite teams that were good in the past.

3. Other teams circling the Champions on their calendar making sure they give that team their all.

4. Other teams improving year to year into contenders.

5. Just the craziness that is the NFL. It's why we love it so much.

It's tough for any team to win a SB. 1,2,3 and 5 are things that every good team deals with. Reigning champs are not at some kind of disadvantage to any other team.

 

[WizardHawk]

I got into a lengthy discussion about this subject last year. He picked Ravens 49'ers to repeat.
I said it was extremly unlikely that would happen.
Repeat SB champs just don't happen.
For this reason, I think that although the Seahawks are champs and favorites, they won't repeat.
So who is going to knock them off? Knee-jerk say 49ers or Denver. Not buying that either.....

I have no problems with people saying it's unlikely that Seattle repeats or that it's unlikely that the Broncos return, but to make a list of 'likely' candidates and say either of those can't be on that list because it's rare seems illogical.

Honestly, I think it's a long shot that Seattle repeats simply because of their schedule. But I'd still include them in the list of top 8 teams with a chance. Wouldn't you?