Mid-Season 2103 Numbers

[averagejoe]

Disappointed in your picks? I am. So since we're past the halfway point of the 2013 season, I wanted to compare this year's numbers with last year's numbers. Disclaimer: since not every team has had their bye, the numbers may have a slight inflation factor.

QB
The top 3 QB's in 2012 had an average of 371.6 fantasy points (standard scoring). Half of that = 185.8. So far in 2013, the top 3 QB average 222.6 points. So looks like scoring is up for the top 3 QB.

The top 12 QB in 2012 averaged 322.4 points. Half of that = 161.2. So far in 2013, the top 12 QB average 177.1 points. In that respect, scoring is up for the top 12 QB. (Really, the other 9.)

RB
The top 3 RB's in 2012 had an average of 301.3 fantasy points (standard scoring). Half of that = 150.6. So far in 2013, the top 3 RB average 122.6 points. So looks like scoring is down for the top 3 RB.

The top 12 RB in 2012 averaged 242.1 points. Half of that = 121. So far in 2013, the top 12 RB average 101.7 points. So scoring is down for the top 12 RB.

WR
The top 3 WR's in 2012 had an average of 243.3 fantasy points (standard scoring). Half of that = 121.6. So far in 2013, the top 3 WR average 110.3 points. So scoring is down for the top 3 WR.

The top 12 WR in 2012 averaged 210.8 points. Half of that = 105.4. So far in 2013, the top 12 WR average 95.1 points. So scoring is down for the top 12 WR.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Good stuff Joe... I'm surprised the WR didn't go up with the QB...

..but yes, the first two rounds of RB's have been terrible (other than a handful).

 

[averagejoe]

Good stuff Joe... I'm surprised the WR didn't go up with the QB.

Not that surprised actually. Two of the top 3 QB are Manning and Brees who spread the ball around. (Third is Stafford.) I'm guessing that some of the backup QB pressed into the starting role are dumping off more to slot, TE or RB instead of forcing the ball into the WR1 hands.

Plus a number of WR got hurt or are banged up.

the first two rounds of RB's have been terrible (other than a handful).

30 point drop for the top 3 RB is significant. 20 point drop for the top 12 is equally as underwhelming. And names in the top 12 we certainly didn't expect.

I think back to preseason and some of the rhetoric being thrown around for guys like Tavon Austin and Montee Ball. They're both barely a blip on the fantasy radar. Knowshon Moreno a top 3 RB at the midway point - shocking!

 

[averagejoe]

MORE:

So if the season ended today, these are the top 24 WR (based on standard fantasy points).

Calvin Johnson
Dez Bryant
Jordy Nelson
Wes Welker
Demaryius Thomas
A.J. Green
DeSean Jackson
Victor Cruz
Brandon Marshall
Vincent Jackson
Eric Decker
Marvin Jones
Josh Gordon
Alshon Jeffery
Antonio Brown
Larry Fitzgerald
Torrey Smith
Terrance Williams
Julio Jones
Denarius Moore
Anquan Boldin
Reggie Wayne
Cecil Shorts
Eddie Royal


And here's the top 24 RB:

Jamaal Charles
Knowshon Moreno
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Reggie Bush
Adrian Peterson
Fred Jackson
Arian Foster
Alfred Morris
DeMarco Murray
Joique Bell
Giovani Bernard
Eddie Lacy
Andre Ellington
Darren McFadden
Chris Johnson
Stevan Ridley
Danny Woodhead
DeAngelo Williams
Ryan Mathews
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jacquizz Rodgers

I just wonder how many of these guys drop by the end of the season?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

question for ya Joe - did you leave the top 3 in when you did the top 12 averages?
I think it would have a more impact if you looked at them individually.
Comparing the top 3 for 2012 and 13, and then #s 4-12 for 2012 and 13.
Should help eliminate the influence of some outliers, like Peyton's huge start to this season wouldn't boost up the 4-12 group this year, and they might be more in sync with 2012's 4th - 12th QBs instead of being up 16pts on avg.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

cool way to look at things half way through.

 

[averagejoe]

question for ya Joe - did you leave the top 3 in when you did the top 12 averages?

You just like making work for me?

Yes, I included the top 3 in the calculation with the top 12. Since the Bengals and Dolphins started playing week 9 games, I had to go back and rework some numbers - just for Monkey:

QB
​

• The top 3 QB's in 2012 had an average of 371.6 fantasy points (standard scoring). Half of that = 185.8. So far in 2013, the top 3 QB average 222.6 points. So looks like scoring is up for the top 3 QB.
• The next 9 (of the top 12) QB in 2012 averaged 306 points. Half of that = 153. So far in 2013, the next 9 QB average 161.8 points. In that respect, scoring is still up for the top 12 QB.

RB
​

• The top 3 RB's in 2012 had an average of 301.3 fantasy points (standard scoring). Half of that = 150.6. So far in 2013, the top 3 RB average 122.6 points. So looks like scoring is down for the top 3 RB.
• The next 9 (of the top 12) RB in 2012 averaged 222.4 points. Half of that = 111.2. So far in 2013, the next 9 RB average 94.7 points. So scoring is down for the top 12 RB.

WR
​

• The top 3 WR's in 2012 had an average of 243.3 fantasy points (standard scoring). Half of that = 121.6. So far in 2013, the top 3 WR average 110.3 points. So scoring is down for the top 3 WR.
• The next 9 (of the top 12) WR in 2012 averaged 200 points. Half of that = 100. So far in 2013, the top 12 WR average 90.1 points. So scoring is down for the top 12 WR.

Also would like to make a correction in my top 24 lists. Rather than go by total points, this is list of 24 is "average" points midway thru the season:

WR
Jordy Nelson
Calvin Johnson
Dez Bryant
Wes Welker
Demaryius Thomas
A.J. Green
DeSean Jackson
Brandon Marshall
Vincent Jackson
Victor Cruz
Alshon Jeffery
Antonio Brown
Eric Decker
Marvin Jones
Torrey Smith
Josh Gordon
Julio Jones
Denarius Moore
Larry Fitzgerald
Reggie Wayne
Eddie Royal
Pierre Garcon
Terrance Williams
Anquan Boldin

RB
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Knowshon Moreno
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Reggie Bush
Fred Jackson
Arian Foster
Alfred Morris
Eddie Lacy
Darren McFadden
DeMarco Murray
Chris Johnson
Danny Woodhead
Joique Bell
DeAngelo Williams
Ryan Mathews
Giovani Bernard
Andre Ellington
Stevan Ridley
Jacquizz Rodgers
Darren Sproles

 

[SmokingMonkey]

QB
The top 3 QB's in 2012 had an average of 371.6 fantasy points
(standard scoring). Half of that = 185.8. So far in 2013, the top 3 QB average
222.6 points. So looks like scoring is up for the
top 3 QB.

The top 12 QB in 2012 averaged 322.4 points. Half of that =
161.2. So far in 2013, the top 12 QB average 177.1 points. In that respect,
scoring is up for the top 12 QB

QB​

• The top 3 QB's in 2012 had an average of 371.6 fantasy points (standard
  scoring). Half of that = 185.8. So far in 2013, the top 3 QB average 222.6
  points. So looks like scoring is up for the top 3
  QB.
• The next 9 (of the top 12) QB in 2012 averaged 306 points. Half of that =
  153. So far in 2013, the next 9 QB average 161.8 points. In that respect,
  scoring is still up for the top 12 QB.

2013 QBs take a much bigger hit when you take out the top 9. Twice as big of a drop as 2012.
Let's call that the 'Peyton Effect'.

This will be interesting at the end of the season.

 

[TREFF]

2013 QBs take a much bigger hit when you take out the top 9. Twice as big of a drop as 2012.
Let's call that the 'Peyton Effect'.

This will be interesting at the end of the season.

So much fire all of us know it alls that said owners would be just fine passing on QB's until late in the Draft and taking Wilson, Kaeps, Flacco, Dalton, ect... What a disaster most of my teams are where I stuck to that advice.