Looking at the 2015 cap briefly

[NetsGotBanned21]

Had a little free time tonight and wanted to show how are cap will not be as bad as many people will think it will be in 2015. In order to do this let's look at 2014's cap for a minute. If you recall I did a post where I briefly talked about the 2014 cap and how it should look and to recap it was something like this:

Projected 2014 cap 125MM
Cap Restructure 27.5MM
Money from Release of numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 from original 2014 cut thread about 7MM
Total 2014 Money created about 34MM
As of now money carried over from 2013 about 10MM
As of now projection to 2014 cap -15MM +/- 3MM
Adjustments after 2013 cap carry over (about 10MM as of now) and restructure and cut money (total of about 34MM) is at about 29MM +/- 3MM in cap space for 2014 without any major cuts (Livings, Mac B, Orton, Parnell, and Costa were the elected cuts from above).

So going into FA you could see the team have as much as 30MM in cap space with no dead money onto 2015 from cuts, but an increase from restructures onto 2015 cap of about 7MM from the 5 restructures above.

So final numbers would be 2014 Cap after everything going into FA 96MM +/- 3MM as of now, against a projected cap number of 125MM.

Now lets say that this is fairly correct for 2014. You set aside 8MM for rookies and about 17MM (including a Lee deal) for FA's which is 25MM total. With that being said leaves us with about 4MM in cap space to carry over into 2015.

As of now with no Dez, Murray, Smith, or Carter locked up we are at about 125MM before my projected restructures from 2014 which will add about 10MM to the cap in 2015 so now a total of 135MM for the 2015 cap. Now lets add in a Lee contract at about 5MM cap hit for 2015 to bring it to 140MM for 2015 cap.

From this point lets say the projected cap for 2015 goes up a lot as many project and set it to 140MM which in all reality we'd be even as of now. Now lets take the 4MM in cap space we carry over based on projections and we are 4MM under the cap now at 136MM.

Now remember in 2014 my projections suggested we cut Livings, Mac B, Orton, Parnell, and Costa; well looking over everything I will also add Scandrick as a cut in 2014 as well. With these cuts the 2015 cap will be adjusted to save 16.5MM against the cap so now the projected cap space would be at about 20MM with no restructures as of yet.

So we would have projected 20MM in space as of this point, so lets move to 2015 cuts as of now:

Ratliff would save about 5.5MM
Miles would save about 1.5MM due to previous 2014 projected restructure

So now this is another 7MM in cap savings to give us a projected 27MM in cap space.

Now to the restructures:

Romo saves about 12MM

This now gives us about 39MM in cap space, don't get all happy thinking we are going to be player in FA in 2015 though. We have to sign Dez, Murray, Smith, and Carter with that money, which still should be no problem.

We look to be in solid shape, I need to check on something with Ware's contract though, it is starting to worry me, he is a FA in 2016 but had two dummy years like Romo did to his contract via restructures, so I need to find out what is going on with the dead money that will be owed IF by chance we do not resign him come 2016.

I however believe that the projected 39MM in cap space would be enough to sign our 4 players and enough impact players plus rookies which would be about 10MM for the rookies, 20MM for the four players cap number, and about 9MM left over. If need be as I mentioned I believe Ware will be extended sometime 2015 season you can restructure him, if not Carr can be restructured to save about 4MM. As you can tell I only restructured Romo above, which in 2015 should be the goal here.

So this is just a basic outlook, it's a lot more complicated to project the 2015 cap, but as of now we are not in great shape, but far from cap hell. We will have all of our young players without loosing to much flexibility in 2017.

 

[Manster7588]

Had a little free time tonight and wanted to show how are cap will not be as bad as many people will think it will be in 2015. In order to do this let's look at 2014's cap for a minute. If you recall I did a post where I briefly talked about the 2014 cap and how it should look and to recap it was something like this:

Projected 2014 cap 125MM
Cap Restructure 27.5MM
Money from Release of numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 from original 2014 cut thread about 7MM
Total 2014 Money created about 34MM
As of now money carried over from 2013 about 10MM
As of now projection to 2014 cap -15MM +/- 3MM
Adjustments after 2013 cap carry over (about 10MM as of now) and restructure and cut money (total of about 34MM) is at about 29MM +/- 3MM in cap space for 2014 without any major cuts (Livings, Mac B, Orton, Parnell, and Costa were the elected cuts from above).

So going into FA you could see the team have as much as 30MM in cap space with no dead money onto 2015 from cuts, but an increase from restructures onto 2015 cap of about 7MM from the 5 restructures above.

So final numbers would be 2014 Cap after everything going into FA 96MM +/- 3MM as of now, against a projected cap number of 125MM.

Now lets say that this is fairly correct for 2014. You set aside 8MM for rookies and about 17MM (including a Lee deal) for FA's which is 25MM total. With that being said leaves us with about 4MM in cap space to carry over into 2015.

As of now with no Dez, Murray, Smith, or Carter locked up we are at about 125MM before my projected restructures from 2014 which will add about 10MM to the cap in 2015 so now a total of 135MM for the 2015 cap. Now lets add in a Lee contract at about 5MM cap hit for 2015 to bring it to 140MM for 2015 cap.

From this point lets say the projected cap for 2015 goes up a lot as many project and set it to 140MM which in all reality we'd be even as of now. Now lets take the 4MM in cap space we carry over based on projections and we are 4MM under the cap now at 136MM.

Now remember in 2014 my projections suggested we cut Livings, Mac B, Orton, Parnell, and Costa; well looking over everything I will also add Scandrick as a cut in 2014 as well. With these cuts the 2015 cap will be adjusted to save 16.5MM against the cap so now the projected cap space would be at about 20MM with no restructures as of yet.

So we would have projected 20MM in space as of this point, so lets move to 2015 cuts as of now:

Ratliff would save about 5.5MM
Miles would save about 1.5MM due to previous 2014 projected restructure

So now this is another 7MM in cap savings to give us a projected 27MM in cap space.

Now to the restructures:

Romo saves about 12MM

This now gives us about 39MM in cap space, don't get all happy thinking we are going to be player in FA in 2015 though. We have to sign Dez, Murray, Smith, and Carter with that money, which still should be no problem.

We look to be in solid shape, I need to check on something with Ware's contract though, it is starting to worry me, he is a FA in 2016 but had two dummy years like Romo did to his contract via restructures, so I need to find out what is going on with the dead money that will be owed IF by chance we do not resign him come 2016.

I however believe that the projected 39MM in cap space would be enough to sign our 4 players and enough impact players plus rookies which would be about 10MM for the rookies, 20MM for the four players cap number, and about 9MM left over. If need be as I mentioned I believe Ware will be extended sometime 2015 season you can restructure him, if not Carr can be restructured to save about 4MM. As you can tell I only restructured Romo above, which in 2015 should be the goal here.

So this is just a basic outlook, it's a lot more complicated to project the 2015 cap, but as of now we are not in great shape, but far from cap hell. We will have all of our young players without loosing to much flexibility in 2017.

Looking at your numbers, wouldn't it be wise not to redo Romo's deal? It will still give us 29MM to sign the four players and the rookies. Maybe just push 5MM of Romo's money back to 2018 as bonus money. This way he can still be released if a young QB is ready to take over. I'm sure most here know I am a Romo fan and I want him as the QB of the Cowboys, but he is no youngster any longer. In 2018 he'll be 38. I truly believe they structured Romos deal so he is 100% cuttable is need be. This is just a thought and I will always take your word over mine when it come to the cap and players contracts. I guess it will depend on how much the cap rises and how much Lee and Bryant get.

 

[NetsGotBanned21]

Looking at your numbers, wouldn't it be wise not to redo Romo's deal? It will still give us 29MM to sign the four players and the rookies. Maybe just push 5MM of Romo's money back to 2018 as bonus money. This way he can still be released if a young QB is ready to take over. I'm sure most here know I am a Romo fan and I want him as the QB of the Cowboys, but he is no youngster any longer. In 2018 he'll be 38. I truly believe they structured Romos deal so he is 100% cuttable is need be. This is just a thought and I will always take your word over mine when it come to the cap and players contracts. I guess it will depend on how much the cap rises and how much Lee and Bryant get.

The problem here is who would you rather restructure, Romo, Carr, or Ware? Looking at the contracts even if Ware gets a new deal I would still want to restructure Romo's deal.

In 2018 Romo will be 38 and be making as of now 19.5MM non guaranteed. With the projected restructures in 2014 and 2015 he will cost us 10MM to cut but would save us 9.5MM on the cap that season. His Cap figure for that season will be about 24.5MM with just 2014 and 2015 getting restructured.

As I mentioned we have to start and continue drafting the right type of players; and while Garrett may not be a great coach, he has a great philosophy and knows his players and this is key for us avoiding cap hell. As of now we are a couple of bad drafts from being back in the Campo days, because come shortly we will have to make some cuts that are not going to be easy such as Witten in a few years, and possibly letting Ware walk in 2016. Not going to be easy these next few seasons, but we are not in cap hell yet, just are restricted on what we can do. If we can draft well over the next three seasons, we should be good. Escobar and Hanna will be the future at TE soon for us, IF Murray does not sign for what he needs to, you are looking at Joesph as being your future RB in 2015 unless we draft one the next two seasons, look for the team to go heavy on OL and DL in the draft these next two seasons, due to the fact that Spencer and Hatcher will be gone next season, and Rat will be cut after the 2014 season at the latest. OL wise Smith, Frederick, and Leary will be it for us as Mac B, Livings, Costa will be gone no later than end of 2014 season. We will start going with youth to not only grow this team for the future, but also do to the substantial lower cost of a rookie over vet.

The team has to move from signing high price vets and into drafting well and then keeping their own, but not overpaying to keep them. Have a set amount you will spend on that player, and if they don't agree draft their replacement, bottom line.

 

[Manster7588]

The problem here is who would you rather restructure, Romo, Carr, or Ware? Looking at the contracts even if Ware gets a new deal I would still want to restructure Romo's deal.

In 2018 Romo will be 38 and be making as of now 19.5MM non guaranteed. With the projected restructures in 2014 and 2015 he will cost us 10MM to cut but would save us 9.5MM on the cap that season. His Cap figure for that season will be about 24.5MM with just 2014 and 2015 getting restructured.

As I mentioned we have to start and continue drafting the right type of players; and while Garrett may not be a great coach, he has a great philosophy and knows his players and this is key for us avoiding cap hell. As of now we are a couple of bad drafts from being back in the Campo days, because come shortly we will have to make some cuts that are not going to be easy such as Witten in a few years, and possibly letting Ware walk in 2016. Not going to be easy these next few seasons, but we are not in cap hell yet, just are restricted on what we can do. If we can draft well over the next three seasons, we should be good. Escobar and Hanna will be the future at TE soon for us, IF Murray does not sign for what he needs to, you are looking at Joesph as being your future RB in 2015 unless we draft one the next two seasons, look for the team to go heavy on OL and DL in the draft these next two seasons, due to the fact that Spencer and Hatcher will be gone next season, and Rat will be cut after the 2014 season at the latest. OL wise Smith, Frederick, and Leary will be it for us as Mac B, Livings, Costa will be gone no later than end of 2014 season. We will start going with youth to not only grow this team for the future, but also do to the substantial lower cost of a rookie over vet.

The team has to move from signing high price vets and into drafting well and then keeping their own, but not overpaying to keep them. Have a set amount you will spend on that player, and if they don't agree draft their replacement, bottom line.

I guess since I see him as the guaranteed QB here in 15, if we can get make it through that year with his 25MM cap without redoing his deal we will fix our future cap issues. Maybe we can keep Lee and Bryants 2015 very low with some future money. I just see the constant restructered contracts and me spending money on any and everything I want keeping me in constant debt. I have a big concern about Romo being a NFL QB in his late 30's. If we must redo his contract because if we don't we are over the cap the yes do it. But if we can just squeeze by without redoing it, we will be much better off. Maybe I'm completely off my rocker, and it HAS to be done, but if we redo his contract and play the season 10MM under the cap we made a mistake. JMO