KEEPER LEAGUE: Better Career?

[TKOSpikes]

1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Montee Ball
3. Giovani Bernard
4. Eddie Lacy
5. Lamar Miller
6. Other

Keep in mind, this is for the 6th pick in the 1st round (5th round) of my 16-team keeper league (Flex, PPR). You guys know who I like for THIS year, but I'm curious to who we all think will be better over the long haul.

 

[tlance]

That is tough. Bell is probably the safest bet long term. Miller probably has the highest ceiling. Lacy would be 5th for me, that is all I know for sure.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Way too early to actually know, but at this point, with all the racket coming out of PIT that they want to run a workhorse back, I might tip the 'best career' scale towards Bell. I don't find him very exciting, but its all about opportunity. Miller is the easy 'best right now', imo, at least for fantasy purposes. Not sure that he will have more than 2-3 seasons of glory. I could be way off, but something doesn't scream "long term fantasy stud" to me when it comes to Miller.

Bernard is probably in the best situation to learn the game, and have a great, young core of teammates to grow with, but I have a feeling he will be stuck in a RBBC for at least year 1. Even AP and Chris Johnson played in a RBBC before taking over the reigns.

I like Ball for best rookie season, but that has more to do with DEN offense, and Peyton doesn't have enough in the tank to play at a high level for all of Ball's career.

No clue what Lacy will do, but I know that I won't be getting burned by a Packer RB on my fantasy squad. Need to see what's going to shake out there before I would commit to Lacy or any of their other backs.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Tlance - I took the longer approach, but same thoughts, hell yea!

 

[TREFF]

I"m going with G. Bernard. I really want to say Montee Ball, but I have a feeling that once Peyton finally goes downhill with age, so too will the Broncos, and you can't just "Luck" into another franchise QB right away. Levon Bell falls somewhat into this too..he should outlast Big Ben, if he's as good as you think he is (I don't, but we've been down that road before). Have a feeling the Packers will be pass heavy for quite some time to come, plus Lacy will always have Franklin breathing down his neck.
But in Bernard you've got a WR and a QB who were rookies just two seasons ago, virtually his entire surrounding cast is 1st to 4th year players, that offense is going to grow together by leaps and bounds, and it should be intact for quite some time to come.

 

[Barilko]

well im too late coming in i say Monkey Tiance and all made great points

but i do like the youth in Cincy thus ill go with Treff's choice of Bernard

as for this year only i.ll go Miller the guy can fly....

 

[wilwhite]

I'm with Treff.

5. Lacy - Green Bay is a hard place to look for fantasy RB greatness
4. Miller - He may have some fantasy-relevant years, but....
3. Ball - Good enough to be the focus once Peyton is gone? Kinda.
2. Bell - I picture a machine grinding out numbers as a top #2/low#1 for a long time to come
1. Bernard - Good long-term situation, good talent. Could be a routine top-10 back.

 

[TKOSpikes]

But in Bernard you've got a WR and a QB who were rookies just two seasons ago, virtually his entire surrounding cast is 1st to 4th year players, that offense is going to grow together by leaps and bounds, and it should be intact for quite some time to come.

I'm with Treff too, and I think he'll fall to me.

 

[dblakejr7]

I would have to say.. Bernard in this situation.. its a PPR.. Bell, whom i like a lot for the steelers, will mainly get the bulk of the carries, but the steelers were never a team just to dump it off to the rb ... Cinci is more mobile .. just my thoughts..

 

[Sox33OSU]

1. Lamar Miller - This kid is a baller. He will be on my teams this year. That offense is going to be a great place for him to shine, and it's set up for years to come. This year and next year, while Tannehill is still young, Miller will have a place and IMO will be a RB1 as early as this season in deeper leagues. By 2015, I could see him as a top 6-7 back overall. Great straight line speed and can catch. Only issue is potential injuries.
2. Montee Ball - Granted, this is sort of dependent on how long Manning plays and how well Osweiller does after him. Ball, however, is a hell of a RB. He's a lot different than the average Wisconsin bulldozer. He has decent wiggle but isn't easy to take down by any means. In Manning's offense, he will thrive for sure.
3. Giovanni Bernard - This guy is electric, but I don't know if Andy Dalton will ever be good enough to keep them on the field long enough for him to realize his full potential. I think he's definitely worth the pick based on talent and ability, and with the Law Firm on the twilight of his career GB is in a great spot. I think he's a sneaky flex pick this season, and going forward if Dalton is able to continue to progress, he will definitely fit the high RB2/low RB1 mold soon.
4. Le'veon Bell - The guy is gonna get TDs, but that's about it. Pitt has never really been that big on throwing to the RB since the Willie Parker days. I could see Bell eventually getting too beaten up, honestly. I think the next 2 years you could see him crack 1200 yards and 12 TDs, but after that I wouldn't be surprised if they were drafting another RB for a change of pace.
5. Eddie Lacey - This guy is the most enigmatic young RB in the league. I cannot figure him out. Injuries are a huge concern with him, and I don't think he is any better than Jonathan Franklin in terms of who can be productive at the NFL level. Honestly I see Franklin eventually being the #1 in GB with Lacey essentially being the Brandon Jacobs type. He'll have a good game here or there but never enough to consistently start.

 

[dblakejr7]

i cant get into the millar hype.. just something about him.. i dont know if its he didnt really show anythign last year on the few carries he had.. or the first snap fumble against the cowboys.. and i think he only got 18 yard this last week..i could be wrong on that.. maybe if he had a line blocking for him.. most mocks i have been in had millar going earyl to late second round... i just dont see it..

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I'm with Treff.

5. Lacy - Green Bay is a hard place to look for fantasy RB greatness
4. Miller - He may have some fantasy-relevant years, but....
3. Ball - Good enough to be the focus once Peyton is gone? Kinda.
2. Bell - I picture a machine grinding out numbers as a top #2/low#1 for a long time to come
1. Bernard - Good long-term situation, good talent. Could be a routine top-10 back.

Funny, but long term I agree with Will. Short term (meaning this year) I would go like this:

Miller
Bell
Lacy
Ball
Bernard

That is as of this moment and based on chances to get the most touches. I agree with most: Miller just doesn't seem like the 5 year top 5 talent to me but hey, in all honesty this is all a crap shoot anyway. I would have liked to see Franklin in a better situation than GB and somebody who isn't in this convo is Lattimore................that guy is in a great position to be 100% healed and IMO will be the starter over James when Gore hangs em up.

 

[The Foot]

Another guy you should consider is Knile Davis. He will be dirt cheap to get and with Charles' injurys he could be a factor sooner than later. Plus his numbers are off the chart compared to all those guys you have listed. He is 230 lbs and ran an unofficial time of read it and weep, 4.30 twice at the combine. He is one of my deep sleepers for traditional leagues and for keeper leagues a must get! Should not that he has had some injuries in college one was pretty major but after his performance at the combine I'd take the chance on him since he will be rather cheap to aquire.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Another guy you should consider is Knile Davis. He will be dirt cheap to get and with Charles' injurys he could be a factor sooner than later. Plus his numbers are off the chart compared to all those guys you have listed. He is 230 lbs and ran an unofficial time of read it and weep, 4.30 twice at the combine. He is one of my deep sleepers for traditional leagues and for keeper leagues a must get! Should not that he has had some injuries in college one was pretty major but after his performance at the combine I'd take the chance on him since he will be rather cheap to aquire.

Rookie RB Knile Davis has battled a case of the drops at Chiefs camp. Analysis: Davis has dropped "numerous passes," and also muffed too many kickoff returns. The Chiefs like what they've seen from Davis as a ball carrier -- he hasn't fumbled yet -- but he'll struggle for rookie-year playing time if he can't play in the passing game. New Chiefs coach Andy Reid is a pass-first mind.

Not the best endorsement he could hope for but if Charles goes down (please don't Jamaal) this guy would get plenty of touches until he either wins the job outright or drops his way out of it. He's cheap enough to take a flier on though............

 

[averagejoe]

1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Montee Ball
3. Giovani Bernard
4. Eddie Lacy
5. Lamar Miller
6. Other

I'm still a little groggy from overdosing on NyQuil so my reasoning may sound off-the-wall.

Remember my post on the whether the passing game really opens up the running game? The one constant of the top RB is that the passing game was average-to-mediocre. (I believe there was only one exception.)

So if a back is going to succeed, his QB has to be of the non-elite. Who then has the worst QB on this list?

5. Lamar Miller (Tannehill)
1. Le'Veon Bell (Big Ben)
3. Giovani Bernard (Dalton)
2. Montee Ball (Manning)
4. Eddie Lacy (Rodgers)

If anything, I'd avoid Ball and Lacy. I might avoid Miller too, only because he's not slated to be the GL back (something that seems to get overlooked in his rankings). And flip a coin to determine Bell or Bernard. Clear as mud?

 

[TREFF]

3. Giovanni Bernard - This guy is electric, but I don't know if Andy Dalton will ever be good enough to keep them on the field long enough for him to realize his full potential. I think he's definitely worth the pick based on talent and ability, and with the Law Firm on the twilight of his career GB is in a great spot. I think he's a sneaky flex pick this season, and going forward if Dalton is able to continue to progress, he will definitely fit the high RB2/low RB1 mold soon

Funny that you used Dalton as a potential negative. He's already good enough to get his team to the playoffs, good enough to maintain Green's elite status and keep Hawkins/Sanu/Jones and Greshem/Eiffert relevant. If he stays right where he is, he's good enough..marginal improvement gets him into Big Ben/Romo/Eli status. And on top of that..I don't think he'll ever get into eilite status, so they'll likely never turn into a pass first team..leaving the run game as emphasis

 

[TKOSpikes]

Funny that you used Dalton as a potential negative. He's already good enough to get his team to the playoffs, good enough to maintain Green's elite status and keep Hawkins/Sanu/Jones and Greshem/Eiffert relevant. If he stays right where he is, he's good enough..marginal improvement gets him into Big Ben/Romo/Eli status. And on top of that..I don't think he'll ever get into eilite status, so they'll likely never turn into a pass first team..leaving the run game as emphasis

I noticed that as well... especially since the argument (comparison) is for Miller and Tannehill. I know I like Dalton, Green and Bernard more than Tannehill, Wallace and Miller for the long haul. Pittsburgh and Baltimore's run defense might have something to say, but I can't stress over two games a year.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Funny that you used Dalton as a potential negative. He's already good enough to get his team to the playoffs, good enough to maintain Green's elite status and keep Hawkins/Sanu/Jones and Greshem/Eiffert relevant. If he stays right where he is, he's good enough..marginal improvement gets him into Big Ben/Romo/Eli status. And on top of that..I don't think he'll ever get into eilite status, so they'll likely never turn into a pass first team..leaving the run game as emphasis

I noticed that as well... especially since the argument (comparison) is for Miller and Tannehill. I know I like Dalton, Green and Bernard more than Tannehill, Wallace and Miller for the long haul. Pittsburgh and Baltimore's run defense might have something to say, but I can't stress over two games a year.

The Bengals took Dalton to the playoffs, not the other way around, let's just get that clear for starters. He also has played like total shit in the playoffs the past 2 seasons, as well. I don't think he's a bad QB, but I don't think he has the potential Tennehill has. Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see this guy being that great of a QB. The Bengals are absolutely loaded and should've gone further than they have the past 2 years. Perhaps Bernard is just the missing piece, which is very possible. I just watch him play against good defenses and he gets nothing on them. I know, he's young, and could improve, but he just seems like more of a game manager than a gamebreaker at QB.

That said, Bernard could very well end up being a PPR monster with all of the weapons the Bengals have that defenses have to be cognizant of. I just really like Miller for similar reasoning, and he is also bigger and just as explosive as Bernard.

 

[TREFF]

Was gonna bring up the THill part...but I know 8'm biased in my belief that he'll never,ever develop into a real true NFL QB...so I didn't feel like getting into that

 

[TREFF]

Thankfully, in fantasyland, how you play in the real playoffs doesn't effect your value here, n9r the value if the RB/WR/TE'S...jjlust ask Tony Romo. Bottom line..we're talking straight up fantasy value...theres no arguing that Dalton is good enough that he doesn't negatively effect his supporting cast in the least