3 Sleepers / 3 Busts

[obibyn]

Just an idea for a thread I had. A way to share opinions on players to watch. Everyone lists their 3 sleepers, and 3 busts. Obviously names will be repeated.

Late round potential steals.

3 Sleepers:
Shane Vereen
Jared Cook
Alshon Jeffrey

Guys I am avoiding.

3 Busts:
Russell Wilson
Mjd
Andre Johnson

 

[RegentDenali]

Besides fears over sophomore slump, not sure what legit reason you believe RW is a bust.

His talent is undeniable. Look at his QBR rating as a rookie. It doesn't take years in the NFL to recognize what he can do. He was playing in the summer OTAs like he hadn't even taken a break from the game. He's now got Percy Harvin as a weapon.
While I'm sure their are other fantasy QBs you obviously take before him for stat, I don't see him as a "bust" this year and tanks into oblivion. Nope.

 

[obibyn]

Besides fears over sophomore slump, not sure what legit reason you believe RW is a bust.

His talent is undeniable. Look at his QBR rating as a rookie. It doesn't take years in the NFL to recognize what he can do. He was playing in the summer OTAs like he hadn't even taken a break from the game. He's now got Percy Harvin as a weapon.
While I'm sure their are other fantasy QBs you obviously take before him for stat, I don't see him as a "bust" this year and tanks into oblivion. Nope.

I'm not calling him a bust in terms of the player he is or the value he has to the Seahawks. I am saying in terms of fantasy value based on where his Average Draft Position is in early drafts and mocks. It's a matter of opinion. Obviously you being a Seahawk fan think very highly of him...as you should. He is a great QB for real life football. But is he a stud in fantasy? My thought process is for where he is being drafted...as in a top 8 qb he has bust potential. I think in terms of fantasy you can get guys in late rounds that could put up comparable numbers.

Not to mention before the Seahawks got hot he was a very below par fantasy QB. But once the team got hot, he got hot. Based on my leagues scoring weeks 1-14 he only scored 20+ 4 times. 3 times he scored 11 points or less (twice single digits). During the fantasy playoffs he put up a monster game against the Bills with 3 rushing tds and decent games weeks 16 and 17...Most likely he wasnt in any contenders starting lineup barring injuries at that point.

You could get similar numbers from a healthy Ben Roethlisberger or Josh Freeman in the 10th round or later. Based on that taking Wilson in the 5th round which is his ADP in my opinion has BUST written all over it.

 

[RegentDenali]

I'm not calling him a bust in terms of the player he is or the value he has to the Seahawks. I am saying in terms of fantasy value based on where his Average Draft Position is in early drafts and mocks. It's a matter of opinion. Obviously you being a Seahawk fan think very highly of him...as you should. He is a great QB for real life football. But is he a stud in fantasy? My thought process is for where he is being drafted...as in a top 8 qb he has bust potential. I think in terms of fantasy you can get guys in late rounds that could put up comparable numbers.

Not to mention before the Seahawks got hot he was a very below par fantasy QB. But once the team got hot, he got hot. Based on my leagues scoring weeks 1-14 he only scored 20+ 4 times. 3 times he scored 11 points or less (twice single digits). During the fantasy playoffs he put up a monster game against the Bills with 3 rushing tds and decent games weeks 16 and 17...Most likely he wasnt in any contenders starting lineup barring injuries at that point.

You could get similar numbers from a healthy Ben Roethlisberger or Josh Freeman in the 10th round or later. Based on that taking Wilson in the 5th round which is his ADP in my opinion has BUST written all over it.

I understand it's from a FF perspective. But just a couple things to chew on.

Seahawks were 8-0 at home last year. 8-0. They were absolutely manhandling teams there on D, and on O. Look at their home schedule this coming season. Very favorable. They could be 7-1 and even 8-0 again. CenturyLink is a visiting teams worst nightmare. Many wave the white flag early and PC doesn't call the dogs off till late in games if they are blowouts. Plus their redzone efficiency with RW at the QB spot was unreal.

As for the road, they got the road monkey off their back as the season went on. Few teams were putting up the numbers they did in the second half of season.

RW also tied the rookie passing TD record held by Payton Manning. 26 TDs.

Passer rating for QBs in 2012: 1: Rodgers, 2: P. Manning, 3: RG3, 4: RW, 5: Matt Ryan

Big Ben? Freeman? Comeon. Look at what they have as a supporting cast to assist those QBs get their numbers in 2013. (fart)

Just watch. 5th round? Justified for FF.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohFgK7hh6cc]Russell Wilson 2012 Highlights[HD] - YouTube[/ame]

 

[TKOSpikes]

I like RW too. Much more than Ben or Freeman... but everyone has their opinions.

For my "busts", I'll say Matthew Stafford. I 100% agree with MJD, but since he's your bust, I'll take DeMarco Murray. And for a WR, how about Mike Wallace.

My "sleeper" list would be Brandon LaFell, WR. Le'Veon Bell, RB and since QB's don't sleep, a TE I like late is Rob Housler.

 

[obibyn]

I like RW too. Much more than Ben or Freeman... but everyone has their opinions.

For my "busts", I'll say Matthew Stafford. I 100% agree with MJD, but since he's your bust, I'll take DeMarco Murray. And for a WR, how about Mike Wallace.

My "sleeper" list would be Brandon LaFell, WR. Le'Veon Bell, RB and since QB's don't sleep, a TE I like late is Rob Housler.

I like that sleeper list. I actually just made a trade in my dynasty league and LaFell was the guys throw in...little did he know I really wanted him and am very happy I did. Rob Housler is also intriguing he was my sleeper last year and failed miserably in that department for me. Things are different now in AZ so I am hoping this is his year.

 

[obibyn]

In regards to RegentDenali: Some food for thought: According to my leagues scoring...

Freeman scored 9 points less than RW last year, 318 to 309. He had 27 tds to RW 26 passing tds

Freemans adp is 12th round, RW is 5th. Both teams have weapons. Freeman has good wr, A good O-line, Doug Martin. RW has the same situation. WRS, RB, O-line.

BUT this is why as a 5th rounder RW is a bust potential imo considering there will be guys available in later rounds that will give you similar production. But only as a 5th rounder. Not in life. I am a fan of RW. I do NOT think he will be a biust this season. I am NOT saying Freeman is better or even on par with RW...I'm MERELY stating in terms of fantasy value he isnt a 5th rounder. I would rather take a RB or WR. If I was building a team today to play non fantasy football...I would select RW over Freeman 10/10 times....but in terms of fantasy I would rather stock up position players and take a qb late who woud give me the same or close to the same thing.

Just wanted to clear up this misconception that I think RW is going to be a bust for the Seahawks. If I could draft RW late...I would select him over Freeman....no doubt. Just in terms of production he is not leaps and bounds better, and he isnt 8 rounds better either.

 

[averagejoe]

First things first...

I understand it's from a FF perspective. But just a couple things to chew on. Seahawks were 8-0 at home last year. 8-0.

RD, with all due respect, the FF perspective is the whole issue. Home-win records, QB rating (unless it is scored in FF), and a host of other NFL statistics may have little impact in FF. For example Calvin Johnson is the top-rated WR in FF yet plays on one of the worst NFL teams. obibyn and other FF guys here don't mean to cast stones at anyone's hometown heroes.

Everyone lists their 3 sleepers, and 3 busts.

Here are mine:

Late round potential steals.

• Isaiah Pead - everyone seems to be cautious with him, but all indications I've read seem like this is Fisher's guy. All he has to do is stay healthy.
• Jordan Cameron - I'm buying into the hype that Norv Turner knows how to use the TE.
• I like Jeffrey too, but since that will seem like a homer pick, I'll go with Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders had 600+ yards as the WR3 last season. Now he slides into the #2 and will still face single coverage.

Guys I am avoiding.

• C.J. Spiller - he did great last year. But a new regime comes in. New QB. I have no other reason than to just call it a "gut" feeling.
• Tom Brady - I don't have a good feeling with Tom Terrific either. Gronk on the mend. A host of new receivers, or receivers that are also injury risks. Welker and Woodhead are gone. And let's not forget the "upper body injury" that never seems to go away. It's like the "perfect storm."
• Wes Welker - he's being drafted like a WR1 and I don't see a scenario where he puts up WR1 numbers. Good hands? Yes. Reliable? Yes. But not when Manning has 2 faster, younger, and bigger targets to throw to.

 

[TREFF]

Just to touch on what obibyn was saying. ..its very revisionidt history to simply look at RW'S 2012 numbers as the whole story and expect anything similar this sesson. For the first 8-10 games, Carrol had the handcuffs on Wilson fairly tight...had the first half been like the second half, RW would be light years ahead of Freeman, or anyone similar. So to compare their respective ADP'S this season ir really apples to oranges.

 

[wilwhite]

I'm not sure mine are sleepers, but I think they'll be high value compared to their ADP:

Danario Alexander - His knees will always be a question, but the guy has tremendous talent and has been in the league a while now but usually on the sidelines. When healthy, he'll be the main deep threat for the Chargers.
Giovani Bernard - This year's Doug Martin lite. BJGE is more reliable than Blount was, but Bernard will be the lead back soon.
Alex Smith - Not a guy you take as a QB1, but he should be a top-notch QB2 now that he's freed from SF passer purgatory.

Busts:
Reggie Wayne - Love him, but I think he's starting to fade.
Montee Ball - Crowded back there, and Moreno knows what to do to help Peyton. Ball's a guy I wouldn't want early in the season.
CJ Spiller - I think FJAX still matters and Spiller won't get the carries everyone is expecting. On top of that there's a good chance the Bills' O won't be very good overall. May be a solid RB2, but people are taking him as an RB1.

 

[TREFF]

As for the three sleepers, i'd have to wholeheartedly agree with Obibyn's list of three..but since jsut saying "yea that looks good" is just too easy..
here's a few more I like...

TE's
Housler, ARZ- Look, we all know damned good and well who will get every bit of the defenses attention on the Cardinals offense, and ARZ's Oline isn't any better than Oakland's was, so what did Palmer do in Oakland? he threw a lot of passes to the TE, look for more of the same.
Fred Davis, WASH- he's being drafted as teh #18 TE as of right now, which in a 12 teamer puts him as someones 2nd guy. With virtually no competition at TE in WASH outside of a converted WR..I wouldn't be shocked at all if he end's up being a team's every week option.

WR's
WR's are easy to call out a ton of sleepers, but virtually impossible to actually nail one with anything other than sheer luck, but here goes.
Terrance Williams, DALL- Given the amount of time that the combo of Miles Austin and Dez Bryant miss games, plus the sheer volume of passes thrown in Dallas, factor in that the 3rd WR in Big D always has a few big games and gets everyone twitterpated for a short time and Williams, if he can win that 3rd WR job, could be a nice diamond in the rough.
Dexter McCluster, KC-Andy Reid in town, loved to get the ball in Desean Jackson's hands. What's the closest thing Reid has to a Desean Jackson in KC?? Dexter, by far. Reid will find a way to get this little guy involved, and I think he'll end up with WR3 numbers by years end.

RB's
Even though I'm not sure he's a "sleeper"..
Chris Ivory, NYJ-his ADP has him as an early RB3. I really think he can be much better than that. yes the Jet's aren't very good, and it doesn't matter who wins between Geno and Sanchez, they're not going to be very good again this year..but, Ivory is a very strong RB that just never got his big break on a pass happy Saints team. Would not be shocked to see 8-10 TD's and 1000 yds, even on a crap team.

 

[TREFF]

Montee Ball - Crowded back there, and Moreno knows what to do to help Peyton. Ball's a guy I wouldn't want early in the season.

I really think everyone is underestimating Ball, and severely overvaluing Hillman and Knowshon..just my opinion..I've got ball in a dead heat for Offensive rookie of the Year along side of Eddie Lacey (who will put Franklin to shame)

 

[obibyn]

obibyn and other FF guys here don't mean to cast stones at anyone's hometown heroes.

Exactly.

I like where this thread is going. This is what I was hoping for. I am a avid FF enthusiast that had 13 ff teams last year (10 of them were $10 buy in leagues on myfantasyleague.com. You pay 10 to buy in and if you win you get $100 bucks and 2nd place gets free entry into a league next year. Great deal and way to practice drafting 12 team ppr leagues. But back to the point...)

Needless to say 10 teams was to much to handle. Down to 5 this year, might do a couple 10 leagues. But I will be posting in here more and more as the year approaches and once the season starts. Love sharing fantasy ideas etc.

Anywho lets keep this thread going. Even if there are repeat players it just shows that players stock rising among the masses.

Some I agree with already mentioned.

Isiah Pead, Jordan Cameron, and Housler

One I'll add:

Vincent Brown-This kid was making strides to be a starter last year, maybe even the #1 until he hurt his ankle. He is under 6 foot but you would never know it with a long wing span he plays like he's 6"3

 

[TREFF]

Exactly.

I like where this thread is going. This is what I was hoping for.

that's the spirit! Has this guy gotten a nomination for the MBBRL B league yet? If not, consider this one!

 

[Skin'EmAll]

Sleepers
Colin Kaepernick SF -
Kaepernick is catching serious ZzzzZ's ever since Crabtree got hurt. Nobody is really expecting much, could be a steal.
Shane Vereen NE - handcuff, woodhead replacement.
Michael Floyd ARI

Avoid
David Wilson NY
Phillip Rivers SD
Danny Amendola NE

 

[TREFF]

Sleepers
Colin Kaepernick SF -
Kaepernick is catching serious ZzzzZ's ever since Crabtree got hurt. Nobody is really expecting much, could be a steal.

no offense, but you haven't been paying much attention to message boards or pretty much any fantasy "advice" site have you? I'd say it's 3-1 in Keap's favor that most people are brushing off the loss of Crabtree.

Keapernick is still very highly rated, and if you want him, you'll have to reach for him

 

[Ram Tough]

Colin Kaepernick SF -
Kaepernick is catching serious ZzzzZ's ever since Crabtree got hurt. Nobody is really expecting much, could be a steal.

He still gets drafted as a Top 7 or 8 QB idk how much of a sleeper that is.. Kaps usually goes between round 5-7

 

[Ram Tough]

3 DEEP Sleepers:
A.J Jenkins
Dustin Keller
Ryan Tannehill

3 Busts
C.J Spiller - Great Talent, terrible team with bad o-line (loss of Levitre is huge) , also has durability concerns
Reggie Bush- Not buying into Bush's stock,, would only consider him in a PPR and that's if he fell
Colin Kapernick - Being drafted as a Top 8 QB usualy between rounds 5-7... I think that's too early. People r loving kaps and buying into his potential, I feel this year he will come back down to earth. Crabtree is a hugeeee loss.. Look for alot of turnovers as defense's learn how 2 slow Kaps down

 

[Ram Tough]

ill add Breakouts...

3 breakouts:

Randall Cobb- I see a huge year coming for Cobb.. I wouldn't be surprised to see him going end of 1st round next year in a PPR

Sam Bradford- Bradford has the talent just hasn't been in a good situation.. until now.. Look for 4000 yds 30 Tds.. Also Tavon, Givens and Cook could all nice years

Lamar Miller- Usually 20th or so RB off the board could be a nice steal.. Has blazing speed and will be used both running and receiving. Gets 2 play Buffalo and New England twice.. Watch out for Dolphins 2 give Pats a run for the Division

 

[Skin'EmAll]

no offense, but you haven't been paying much attention to message boards or pretty much any fantasy "advice" site have you? I'd say it's 3-1 in Keap's favor that most people are brushing off the loss of Crabtree.

Keapernick is still very highly rated, and if you want him, you'll have to reach for him

none taken, there have been quite a few reactions when it comes to NFC West QBs.
Actually my mentioning Kaepernick is based on message boards. There's debate that he'll suffer the 2nd year jinx, although it will actually be his 3rd year. He's projected to do well, yet from mock drafts and adp...NOBODY is reaching for him.

Once I actually thought about what Ram Tough said,

He still gets drafted as a Top 7 or 8 QB idk how much of a sleeper that is.. Kaps usually goes between round 5-7

ESPN has him as the 7th best QB and he's going in the 6-7 round, so maybe he's neither sleeper nor bust if he has a good season.