Hey Guys, a question about Hamilton

[Forty_Sixand2]

A friend and I were talking the other day. We are both statisticians (sort of) by trade, and love baseball stats, obviously.

What would you, as Rangers fans, be happy with as far as a term and number for a Hamilton contract. What would you project to get out of him and for how long?

He is a Pirates fan and I am a Nats fan so neither of us have any rooting interest in the AL, but were kind of curious what the rangers fan thought process was with regards to him?


What number would you say.....fuck it, go elsewhere?


Thanks in advance!

 

[fordman84]

A friend and I were talking the other day. We are both statisticians (sort of) by trade, and love baseball stats, obviously.

What would you, as Rangers fans, be happy with as far as a term and number for a Hamilton contract. What would you project to get out of him and for how long?

He is a Pirates fan and I am a Nats fan so neither of us have any rooting interest in the AL, but were kind of curious what the rangers fan thought process was with regards to him?


What number would you say.....fuck it, go elsewhere?


Thanks in advance!

You are going to get a lot of different answers, but at least you should get well thought out ones.

Personally I think we make an offer around 5 years, maybe a 6th team option that gives him $15-$17M per year. I'm thinking someone else offers $20 per, which I might do as long as I could front load the contract. Don't want a Pujols/Wells back end deal. Pay him up front and let it taper, so you can move him later or bench him without it hurting too much.

I'd think anything over $20M per would make me let him walk, or anything 7+ years. I only say that because I've heard some of the big name writers saying 7/$140 and I just can't understand that. I'd pay more for a shorter contract maybe. 4/90 and a 5th mutual then 6th team and $10M for each option year?

We do know that this FO isn't afraid to let someone walk if they are asking too much. Josh knows that too, so if he wants to stay he will need to work with the team. He is going to make enough to set his family for life, how much more on top of that does he want?

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

You, obviously, follow the Rangers beat a lot more than I do. DOes Hamilton seem like the kind of guy who wants to play in NY or Boston or LA?

 

[fordman84]

You, obviously, follow the Rangers beat a lot more than I do. DOes Hamilton seem like the kind of guy who wants to play in NY or Boston or LA?

Not sure. One day he will say that he doesn't owe the team anything, then others he sounds like he is grateful and loves the team and doesn't care about money. I think it just comes down to what his mood is.

I don't think he is a money chaser. I wonder if he would feel there is too much pressure maybe in a major major market like NY or LA. If he went to BOS he could hit 100 HR's in a year I'd bet.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

For me, its more about the years than money. Anything over 4-5 years is iffy to me... (unless they are option years)

 

[scotsman1948]

For me, its more about the years than money. Anything over 4-5 years is iffy to me... (unless they are option years)

i start with 4 years with a 5th year (based on plate appearances in the 4th year) and 6th year (again based on plate appearances in the 5th year). 78-80M for the 1st 4 years and 32-36 for the 2 option years

 

[romeo212000]

Nobody's really sure what Hamilton will do. I don't see him going to Boston or new York. The dodgers stick out to me fore some reason though. I could see him re-signing a good contract here, but not a mega contract. Like Scotty said though, it's more about years than money. No way do I offer him a pujols or fielder contract. I'd probably offer him 4 yrs guaranteed 5 at the absolute most with vesting options for 2 or 1 years respectively. MY is making 16m next year. No way we get away with offering him less than that. My guess is it would take 17-19.

 

[Windingmywatch]

For me, its more about the years than money. Anything over 4-5 years is iffy to me... (unless they are option years)

Anything over 4 years better be with lots of caveats in option years. Past 4 years he's only going to be a productive AL player ... and any NL team that offers him more years than that is going to be very sad down the road.

 

[jta4437]

For me his contract has to hinge on playing time incentives; something like 15 million per year, and then the more games he plays the more money he makes, and nothing more than 5 years unless they are team option years at a reduced cost

 

[AGZBASEBALL]

Angels Fans are really going to be sad once Pujols goes beyond His 4th or 5th Year. He is going to Hamstring them for Years. Wouldn't go beyond 4-5 Years on Hamilton.

 

[fordman84]

Angels Fans are really going to be sad once Pujols goes beyond His 4th or 5th Year. He is going to Hamstring them for Years. Wouldn't go beyond 4-5 Years on Hamilton.

They already have two more years of Wells at $20M+, so at least they get a good preview of what is to come with Pujols

 

[romeo212000]

Angels Fans are really going to be sad once Pujols goes beyond His 4th or 5th Year. He is going to Hamstring them for Years. Wouldn't go beyond 4-5 Years on Hamilton.

Yeah. It will make Young's contract look like a bargain.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

Good stuff. Thanks for the info.

 

[bone3421]

i think that the cut-off is 5-120 mil..... but i also dont think josh would be happy in a ny/bos/la...everyone has a feeling he will be gone but if the rangers offer him a competitive contract he will stay

yes he his is a injury risk but when he plays he is usually great(minus the slump this year)
he is worth 20 mil a year just based on the market set by other players

 

[jta4437]

i think that the cut-off is 5-120 mil..... but i also dont think josh would be happy in a ny/bos/la...everyone has a feeling he will be gone but if the rangers offer him a competitive contract he will stay

yes he his is a injury risk but when he plays he is usually great(minus the slump this year)
he is worth 20 mil a year just based on the market set by other players

There is no market set for Hamilton, not with his unique injury, character and performance history

I have a feeling he gets a unique contract to compensate him but also allow for protections for the team if circumstances arise

 

[Windingmywatch]

There is no market set for Hamilton, not with his unique injury, character and performance history

I have a feeling he gets a unique contract to compensate him but also allow for protections for the team if circumstances arise

Agree... although would say that all tier 1 player contracts are probably very individually sculpted so Hamilton's would be typical in that regard.

Actually because of all the issues TEX may be in a better position to address them and navigate the process better ... the conversation with his agent has been going on for awhile.

Other teams may be far more conservative since they don't have first hand knowledge of what has gone on under the water with him since he came to TEX.

Am confident that TEX FO is in the best position to negotiate a program that works ... but they aren't going to go beyond what they know he is worth versus the risks.

 

[Al Falfa]

Angels Fans are really going to be sad once Pujols goes beyond His 4th or 5th Year. He is going to Hamstring them for Years. Wouldn't go beyond 4-5 Years on Hamilton.

Shoot AGZ, the Angels are 9.5 games out. Their FO and fans should be sad right now and down right depressed at a later date. There should be a line to get on the ledge that stretches down the street and around the block when reality bites.

 

[AGZBASEBALL]

Shoot AGZ, the Angels are 9.5 games out. Their FO and fans should be sad right now and down right depressed at a later date. There should be a line to get on the ledge that stretches down the street and around the block when reality bites.

Pujols has found his Stride this year but the Angels as a Team are falling apart. True they are Sad Right now. CJ hasn't done too well lately either. But the season isn't over yet. Still have a lot of games left with the A's and Angels. The Angels might have aone Big Run left in them.

 

[Al Falfa]

Pujols has found his Stride this year but the Angels as a Team are falling apart. True they are Sad Right now. CJ hasn't done too well lately either. But the season isn't over yet. Still have a lot of games left with the A's and Angels. The Angels might have aone Big Run left in them.

I think the Rangers have a better team and are just as capable of a big run. I was speaking not only about this year, but about next year and the year after. It's late August, they should be leading us by 9.5 games.They seem more than willing to mortgage the future and more often than not it doesn't work. Sure didn't here for 30 plus years.

 

[AGZBASEBALL]

I think the Rangers have a better team and are just as capable of a big run. I was speaking not only about this year, but about next year and the year after. It's late August, they should be leading us by 9.5 games.They seem more than willing to mortgage the future and more often than not it doesn't work. Sure didn't here for 30 plus years.

Overall I agree with you. The Rangers have one of the Top Farm Systems in All of Baseball. This Team is set to be Good for a Long Time to come. The Angels System isn't Ranked Very High and whatever Prospects they had were Dealt away in the Greinke Deal. Its not just about Pujols's Individual Performance. If the angels don't win a World Series or Two in the Next Five Years this Contract is a disaster for the Angels.