Top 5 teams the AP Poll underrated most during BCS Era

[yeodonie]

so in summary:

If we went by the OP's list it would be:

BSU +61
Oregon +51
TCU +45
WSU +32
Iowa +26
USC -2
Wisconsin -8
UGA -34

Hmmm... SEC SEC SEC

 

[iowajerms]

Iowa

1998-2001 - NR/NR
2002 - NR/8th (+17)
2003 - NR/8th (+17)
2004 - 19th/8th (+11)
2005 - 11th/NR (-14)
2006 - 16th/NR (-9)
2007 - NR/NR
2008 - NR/20th (+5)
2009 - 22nd/7th (+15)
2010 - 9th/NR (-16)
2011 - NR/NR

65- 49 = +16

Now, with this strategy, Iowa will be one of the best teams the AP has predicted. Iowa started and finished unranked 6 seasons, that leaves 8 seasons left. 7 of those 8 seasons (in 2006, Iowa went 6-7 so I am sure they dropped more than 9 spots) they finished 10 or more sports from where they started, but when doing your math, they shouldn't make either of my Top 5.

In 2009, Oregon went from 16th to 11th. That season, 9 teams rose more spots from their preseason poll to their final ranking. In 2010, Oregon went from 10th to 3rd. There were 6 teams that did more. +5 or +8. that doesn't necessarily mean they are underrated, it's just the AP did terrible that year, and in 2010 the AP did terrible.

In 2005, I consider Oregon underrated enough to help them make this list. Same with 2000.

I don't let the years that they were closely predicted or overrated affect the "underrated" rankings.

 

[yeodonie]

Iowa

1998-2001 - NR/NR
2002 - NR/8th (+17)
2003 - NR/8th (+17)
2004 - 19th/8th (+11)
2005 - 11th/NR (-14)
2006 - 16th/NR (-9)
2007 - NR/NR
2008 - NR/20th (+5)
2009 - 22nd/7th (+15)
2010 - 9th/NR (-16)
2011 - NR/NR

65- 49 = +16

Now, with this strategy, Iowa will be one of the best teams the AP has predicted. Iowa started and finished unranked 6 seasons, that leaves 8 seasons left. 7 of those 8 seasons (in 2006, Iowa went 6-7 so I am sure they dropped more than 9 spots) they finished 10 or more sports from where they started, but when doing your math, they shouldn't make either of my Top 5.

In 2009, Oregon went from 16th to 11th. That season, 9 teams rose more spots from their preseason poll to their final ranking. In 2010, Oregon went from 10th to 3rd. There were 6 teams that did more. +5 or +8 doesn't necessarily mean they are underrated, it's just the AP did terrible that year, and in 2010 the AP did terrible.

In 2005, I consider Oregon underrated enough to help them make this list. Same with 2000.

check your math again. It's +26 for Iowa.

and yes terrible rankings is the point. Teams like Iowa, Oregon and BSU are chronically underrated.

 

[iowajerms]

check your math again. It's +26 for Iowa.

and yes terrible rankings is the point. Teams like Iowa, Oregon and BSU are chronically underrated.

You are looking at a list of 8 that I have done. I am looking at a list of 35-40 teams for each season. I did what you did with the preseason rankings and the final ranking of each of the season, and got the teams from the most underrated in that season to most overrated in that season. Then determined it from there.

 

[yeodonie]

and you have to factor in the overrated with the underrated. It evens some of it out over the long haul.

Mathematically the two most underrated teams are BSU and Oregon. Just as I told the SEC Homer.

 

[yeodonie]

You are looking at a list of 8 that I have done. I am looking at a list of 35-40 teams for each season. I did what you did with the preseason rankings and the final ranking of each of the season, and got the teams from the most underrated in that season to most overrated in that season. Then determined it from there.

You could go through all 120+ teams and I've seen it done (although I couldn't find it) and it ends up with BSU +1 and Oregon in the top 5 for sure. Not sure I recall the exact placing. May have been 2, 3.

I'm not doing another 110 more teams!

 

[yeodonie]

Washington State & Iowa.....Ok,maybe Iowa deserves a shot.

WSU had a stretch of 3 years where they pretty much came out of nowhere. Then they went *poof* again.

Leaf was their quarterback before he became a full on drug addict and burglar.

 

[iowajerms]

and you have to factor in the overrated with the underrated. It evens some of it out over the long haul.

Mathematically the two most underrated teams are BSU and Oregon. Just as I told the SEC Homer.

Forget this post. I totally failed on it.

The top 5 underrated was probably the toughest one other than Boise State. Overrated wasn't too tough because you can go by record. The even one was pretty simple. No surprises in that Top 5.

 

[yeodonie]

In 1998, Hayden Fry led Iowa to 3-8. Ferentz took over in 1999 and won 1-10. In 2000, Iowa went 3-9. 2001, Iowa did good but nothing special 7-5.

Iowa went 14-32 and 1 bowl game

1998, Oregon went 8-4. 1999, Oregon went 9-3. 2000, Oregon went 10-2. 2001, Oregon went 11-1.

Oregon went 38-10 and 4 bowl games.

I'm missing your point. Iowa is on average through the BCS years underrated. Probably one of the most underrated teams.

The pattern I see is that names mean a lot in pre-season polls. If you have an off year but you're still a big name they'll rank you. Then you get slammed with an overrated mark. If you're a team like ours or BSU they didn't rank us very often pre-season so when we had good years we had a lot of room to move up.

TEAM SEC is chronically overrated which then inflates ALL their rankings and they get the "we just beat up each other" syndrome.

Now, they have some good teams and they have shit teams. It's just that their shit teams (UGA) keep getting overrated and that artificially makes the other teams look better.

 

[iowajerms]

I'm missing your point. Iowa is on average through the BCS years underrated. Probably one of the most underrated teams.

The pattern I see is that names mean a lot in pre-season polls. If you have an off year but you're still a big name they'll rank you. Then you get slammed with an overrated mark. If you're a team like ours or BSU they didn't rank us very often pre-season so when we had good years we had a lot of room to move up.

TEAM SEC is chronically overrated which then inflates ALL their rankings and they get the "we just beat up each other" syndrome.

Now, they have some good teams and they have shit teams. It's just that their shit teams (UGA) keep getting overrated and that artificially makes the other teams look better.

I did recognize after I posted that what I said didn't make sense. I did say I failed on it.

I agree with your point about the SEC. I don't think UGA is the right team to use to make your point though. Tennessee and Florida are.

 

[yeodonie]

No worries man. These are tough things to do and to try to do it subjectively while maybe possible to do more accurately is really tough.

I've only ever seen it done mathematically.

 

[goDAWGSsicem]

I did recognize after I posted that what I said didn't make sense. I did say I failed on it.

I agree with your point about the SEC. I don't think UGA is the right team to use to make your point though. Tennessee and Florida are.

He's just butt hurt because I asked for a link to a claim he made (after more than a week, he still couldn't find one).

 

[yeodonie]

He's just butt hurt because I asked for a link to a claim he made (after more than a week, he still couldn't find one).

Yet I was correct...Both in my original assessment about BSU and Oregon and that UGA is overrated.

 

[goDAWGSsicem]

Are you?

Link.

And if you are, why are you acting so butt hurt?

 

[yeodonie]

Okay let's do Florida:

1998 - 3 - 5 -2
1999 - 5 - 12 -7
2000 - 9 - 10 -1
2001 - 1 - 3 -2
2002 - 6 - NR -19
2003 - NR - 24 +1 !!!!!
2004 - 11 - NR -14
2005 - 10 - 12 -2
2006 - 7 - 1 - +6
2007 - 6 - 13 -7
2008 - 5 - 1 +4
2009 - 1 - 3 -2
2010 - 4 - NR -21
2011 - 22 - NR -3

You were right! Florida is WAY overrated through the years.

-69 places.
average over ranked nearly 5 whole spots per season.

 

[yeodonie]

Are you?

Link.

And if you are, why are you acting so butt hurt?

The math is there. BSU 1, Oregon 2. Here's the link:

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...rrated-most-during-bcs-era-2.html#post2058771

 

[goDAWGSsicem]

Did you rate every team in D1?

 

[goDAWGSsicem]

And by the way, I never said you were wrong just that I would like to see something a little more factual than your opinion. Apparently, you took offense to that and see a need act butt hurt.

 

[yeodonie]

Tennessee

1998 - 10 - 1 +9
1999 - 2 - 9 -8
2000 - 12 - NR -13
2001 - 8 - 4 +4
2002 - 5 - NR -20
2003 - 12 - 15 -3
2004 - 14 - 13 +1
2005 - 3 - NR -22
2006 - 23 - 25 -2
2007 - 15 - 12 +3
2008 - 18 - NR -7
2009 - NR - NR
2010 - NR - NR
2011 - NR - NR

-60 over the years. Pretty bad. Seems consistent for TEAM SEC to be overrated in order to prop up the one or two good teams they have.

 

[yeodonie]

And by the way, I never said you were wrong just that I would like to see something a little more factual than your opinion. Apparently, you took offense to that and see a need act butt hurt.

Don't get all nice. I'm still butt hurt!

I'd love to find the article. Someone did the friggin' math for all 120+