Bengals /Ravens realistic premonitions

[jbuck]

Bengals lose by 19. Give up 250+ yrds rushing. Burrow has a TD and 2 interceptions

 

[Cincyfan78]

It's going to be interesting...looking at the stats - Bmore's defense has been nearly as bad as the Bengals in terms of YPG given up (315.3 to 326.8). Bmore has given up 257.5 passing yards per game, which is 4th to last in the NFL - and would bode well for the Bengals passing game that looks like it is finally back on track (3rd in DVOA offense). Where they excel is at the run, #1 in the NFL at just 57.8 YPG - but is that because teams can pass all over them? I don't know. Bengals passing YPG is actually just 11th in the NFL at 181.3 per game - but is that because they are 7th to last in the NFL against the run at 145.5 per game? I think we'll find out.

The big thing here is Bmore is giving up 22 PPG and Bengals 26 PPG, so through 4 games, basically just 1 more pt per game.

It's funny because not only on defense are these teams complete opposites at what they've been allowing teams to do, or not do (statistically speaking of course) but it's the same on offense...Bmore's passing game is 16th in the NFL at just 209 YPG while the Bengals is 6th at 236. Of course Bmore is leading the NFL in rushing per game at 220.3 to the Bengals 102 - but hey....they are at #23 which is a far cry from where this team has been the past few years. They are actually above 100 YPG at 102.3 and have shown some life in the run game with last week - will Taylor stick with it, or will he do what he's done in the past and follow up a really good/balanced game with a 80/20 pass-run split even if the run game looks like it is working?

This is going to be a really fun game to watch because there are just so many contrasting styles.

If I had to pick - I'm leaning Bmore here because of how well they run the ball and just how bad Cincinnati's run defense is, and lack of ability to pressure the QB. Until everyone on the DL gets back healthy - it's going to be really hard to assess just how bad the DL really is - but at this moment, it likely couldn't stop several of us at RB from picking up 2-3 yards a pop - let a lone Henry and Jackson.

I think it'll be close because Burrow seems like he's back on track and the offense looks good - but ultimately, I think Bmore can grind its way through the defense and do just enough to keep the offense from the Bengals off the field....27-24 with the Ravens grinding out the clock at the end to secure the victory...if I had to guess...

 

[CrashDavisSports]

It's going to be interesting...looking at the stats - Bmore's defense has been nearly as bad as the Bengals in terms of YPG given up (315.3 to 326.8). Bmore has given up 257.5 passing yards per game, which is 4th to last in the NFL - and would bode well for the Bengals passing game that looks like it is finally back on track (3rd in DVOA offense). Where they excel is at the run, #1 in the NFL at just 57.8 YPG - but is that because teams can pass all over them? I don't know. Bengals passing YPG is actually just 11th in the NFL at 181.3 per game - but is that because they are 7th to last in the NFL against the run at 145.5 per game? I think we'll find out.

The big thing here is Bmore is giving up 22 PPG and Bengals 26 PPG, so through 4 games, basically just 1 more pt per game.

It's funny because not only on defense are these teams complete opposites at what they've been allowing teams to do, or not do (statistically speaking of course) but it's the same on offense...Bmore's passing game is 16th in the NFL at just 209 YPG while the Bengals is 6th at 236. Of course Bmore is leading the NFL in rushing per game at 220.3 to the Bengals 102 - but hey....they are at #23 which is a far cry from where this team has been the past few years. They are actually above 100 YPG at 102.3 and have shown some life in the run game with last week - will Taylor stick with it, or will he do what he's done in the past and follow up a really good/balanced game with a 80/20 pass-run split even if the run game looks like it is working?

This is going to be a really fun game to watch because there are just so many contrasting styles.

If I had to pick - I'm leaning Bmore here because of how well they run the ball and just how bad Cincinnati's run defense is, and lack of ability to pressure the QB. Until everyone on the DL gets back healthy - it's going to be really hard to assess just how bad the DL really is - but at this moment, it likely couldn't stop several of us at RB from picking up 2-3 yards a pop - let a lone Henry and Jackson.

I think it'll be close because Burrow seems like he's back on track and the offense looks good - but ultimately, I think Bmore can grind its way through the defense and do just enough to keep the offense from the Bengals off the field....27-24 with the Ravens grinding out the clock at the end to secure the victory...if I had to guess...

I don't think that is how points per game works man. I think you misspoke on accident with that one.

If the Bengals are giving up 26 points per game, they are giving up 26 points per game, and the Ravens 22. Over 4 games that equates to 16 points more the Bengals have given up, not 4 for 1 point per game difference.

I think the playcalling split is going to be dictated by how the defense is doing, and how effective our run game is during the game. If the Ravens play like Washington where we have to score on every single drive, there will be a ton of passing.

Our defense is pretty damn horrible, and with Hendrickson hurt, the DL banged up in general and the lack of coverage and tackling at point of attack, we could be in trouble. Lamar and Henry are already hard to tackle, you add bad technique and lack of aggressiveness to that, well, we are in trouble.

I don't know the score, but I think we lose this one.

 

[cincygrad]

I think Baltimore's defensive stats are hard to trust at this point. Teams haven't run against them because those teams either don't normally run (KC, Dallas, Buffalo) or those teams have been down multiple scores (Dallas, Buffalo, Vegas). That can also inflate passing stats as their D will give up more yards with a lead. That said, there D has given up more explosives than they typically do, which might not be a trend that continues through the year. I think this illustrates why it's hard to pick games this time of year - We're all making predictions based off of a small sample size of games. I'd go back to what we thought about them at the beginning of the year - They are a D that probably isn't as dominant as they were last year, but you'd expect them to figure it out a little as the season goes on. I think the Bengals would be wise to stick with the run - I think they can do a better job at it than the other teams Baltimore has faced. I'd hate to see Zac do that thing where he gets away from it too early.

The other thing that stands out to me is that it feels obvious that the Bengals can't stop the Ravens run game. There isn't a single person that believes the Bengals stand a chance to stand up against them. But this is the NFL and the obvious trends seem to rarely play out that way on Sunday. I'm not saying the Bengals shut them down, but I also suspect they won't be hopeless. I also think a return of BJ Hill will be more important than people realize. Regardless, it doesn't change the formula. The game could have limited possessions. If the Bengals force a few field goals rather than touchdowns and if they get at least one key turnover, they will be in position to win if they can live up to their pedigree on offense.

This is a homer pick from me, but I think the Bengals win in a close one. I think everyone is back on the bandwagon after this week which probably won't end well when we go on the road next Sunday.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I don't think that is how points per game works man. I think you misspoke on accident with that one.

If the Bengals are giving up 26 points per game, they are giving up 26 points per game, and the Ravens 22. Over 4 games that equates to 16 points more the Bengals have given up, not 4 for 1 point per game difference.

I think the playcalling split is going to be dictated by how the defense is doing, and how effective our run game is during the game. If the Ravens play like Washington where we have to score on every single drive, there will be a ton of passing.

Our defense is pretty damn horrible, and with Hendrickson hurt, the DL banged up in general and the lack of coverage and tackling at point of attack, we could be in trouble. Lamar and Henry are already hard to tackle, you add bad technique and lack of aggressiveness to that, well, we are in trouble.

I don't know the score, but I think we lose this one.

Correct - I was in a bit of a hurry and flipping back and forth to a stats page...I was in cumulative mode - and not mean mode...lol

I'll disagree about the WAS game...the Bengals were getting good runs and could have controlled the clock a lot more, in theory, and kept WAS off the field. Same can be said against BMore - if the defense is getting gashed by the run, and getting beat/worn down - you can't just throw it all over the yard and not allow the defense to rest some. Running helps to control the clock, but also again - protect the OL and Burrow. There HAS to be balance as long as the game is within reach. Again, it doesn't need to be the 50/50 split we saw last week, but unless the Bengals fall behind by 2 scores, it can't be the 75/25 that Taylor often leans to. This offense has always looked its best when the run in a threat, because it opens up the rest of the passing for Burrow - especially the deep ball and more 1-1 opportunities for the WRs.

IMO - the key to Henry has always been - you have to get him before he gets past the LOS - I know that sounds silly - but he is rather easy to tackle behind the LOS because he can't get up to speed. He's not terribly elusive - but once he is able to get into gear, those 2 yard runs are 4-5-6- yard runs because at that point you can't bring him down. One of the reasons the Bengals have had success in the past against Tenn and Henry was Reader, and the DL's, ability to penetrate into the backfield and get to him before he got going. I don't see that being the case this Sunday.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think Baltimore's defensive stats are hard to trust at this point. Teams haven't run against them because those teams either don't normally run (KC, Dallas, Buffalo) or those teams have been down multiple scores (Dallas, Buffalo, Vegas). That can also inflate passing stats as their D will give up more yards with a lead. That said, there D has given up more explosives than they typically do, which might not be a trend that continues through the year. I think this illustrates why it's hard to pick games this time of year - We're all making predictions based off of a small sample size of games. I'd go back to what we thought about them at the beginning of the year - They are a D that probably isn't as dominant as they were last year, but you'd expect them to figure it out a little as the season goes on. I think the Bengals would be wise to stick with the run - I think they can do a better job at it than the other teams Baltimore has faced. I'd hate to see Zac do that thing where he gets away from it too early.

The other thing that stands out to me is that it feels obvious that the Bengals can't stop the Ravens run game. There isn't a single person that believes the Bengals stand a chance to stand up against them. But this is the NFL and the obvious trends seem to rarely play out that way on Sunday. I'm not saying the Bengals shut them down, but I also suspect they won't be hopeless. I also think a return of BJ Hill will be more important than people realize. Regardless, it doesn't change the formula. The game could have limited possessions. If the Bengals force a few field goals rather than touchdowns and if they get at least one key turnover, they will be in position to win if they can live up to their pedigree on offense.

This is a homer pick from me, but I think the Bengals win in a close one. I think everyone is back on the bandwagon after this week which probably won't end well when we go on the road next Sunday.

I'll say this - and it crossed my mind as I was doing my thoughts yesterday - in sports in general - anytime you get a game like this it feels like whatever you feel is a 100% certainty to happen (Bengals will give up 300 yards rushing, etc...example) the sports gods decide to have a bit of fun and throw everything sideways with a game where the Bengals hold the Ravens to under 100 yards rushing....Sports, man...sports.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think Baltimore's defensive stats are hard to trust at this point. Teams haven't run against them because those teams either don't normally run (KC, Dallas, Buffalo) or those teams have been down multiple scores (Dallas, Buffalo, Vegas). That can also inflate passing stats as their D will give up more yards with a lead. That said, there D has given up more explosives than they typically do, which might not be a trend that continues through the year. I think this illustrates why it's hard to pick games this time of year - We're all making predictions based off of a small sample size of games. I'd go back to what we thought about them at the beginning of the year - They are a D that probably isn't as dominant as they were last year, but you'd expect them to figure it out a little as the season goes on. I think the Bengals would be wise to stick with the run - I think they can do a better job at it than the other teams Baltimore has faced. I'd hate to see Zac do that thing where he gets away from it too early.

The other thing that stands out to me is that it feels obvious that the Bengals can't stop the Ravens run game. There isn't a single person that believes the Bengals stand a chance to stand up against them. But this is the NFL and the obvious trends seem to rarely play out that way on Sunday. I'm not saying the Bengals shut them down, but I also suspect they won't be hopeless. I also think a return of BJ Hill will be more important than people realize. Regardless, it doesn't change the formula. The game could have limited possessions. If the Bengals force a few field goals rather than touchdowns and if they get at least one key turnover, they will be in position to win if they can live up to their pedigree on offense.

This is a homer pick from me, but I think the Bengals win in a close one. I think everyone is back on the bandwagon after this week which probably won't end well when we go on the road next Sunday.

I like playing devil's advocate and then being pleasantly surprised instead of pissed off all day. If I anticipate we lose, I accept defeat better. haha

 

[cincygrad]

I'll say this - and it crossed my mind as I was doing my thoughts yesterday - in sports in general - anytime you get a game like this it feels like whatever you feel is a 100% certainty to happen (Bengals will give up 300 yards rushing, etc...example) the sports gods decide to have a bit of fun and throw everything sideways with a game where the Bengals hold the Ravens to under 100 yards rushing....Sports, man...sports.

That's sort of where I am with it. People that make real money at gambling on football tend to go against the obvious pick in this situation. There is too much talent in the NFL and consistency (greatness or ineptitude) is hard to maintain.

I'll also say that in the modern NFL, a dominant passing game against a poor pass rush is more a threat than a dominant run game against a shaky run defense. I'm okay with the Bengals giving up a bunch of rushing yards - But they have to force some third downs and they have to win some third downs. It's obviously easier said than done, but you need to make Jackson beat you with his arm from the pocket.

 

[jbuck]

it's nice to get all the losses out of the way early.

we can put our feet up and cruise towards mediocracy now

 

[Ojb81]

it's nice to get all the losses out of the way early.

we can put our feet up and cruise towards mediocracy now

 

[Cincyfan78]

Bengals waive Zach Carter, DT, to make room to return Myles Murphy (DE) and McKinley-Jackson (NT).

Interesting - but Carter was always an odd fit. Not really a DE, but they tried to move him to DT as a rush DT and it just never really worked.

 

[cincygrad]

Bengals waive Zach Carter, DT, to make room to return Myles Murphy (DE) and McKinley-Jackson (NT).

Interesting - but Carter was always an odd fit. Not really a DE, but they tried to move him to DT as a rush DT and it just never really worked.

There will be a lot of criticism of Duke Tobin with the Carter pick, but I went back and checked that draft and the other options have been as bad or worse. The next D-line player selected was Myjai Sanders (former bearcat) who is now on his second team. Then you have Perrion Winfrey who now plays for the Birmingham Stallions. Then you have Eyioma Uwazurike who found himself suspended for gambling. Then Neil Farrell who is now on his third team...... So, terrible year for D-line evaluation. Also shows you why you probably have to get one in the first round when you really need one.

 

[Cincyfan78]

There will be a lot of criticism of Duke Tobin with the Carter pick, but I went back and checked that draft and the other options have been as bad or worse. The next D-line player selected was Myjai Sanders (former bearcat) who is now on his second team. Then you have Perrion Winfrey who now plays for the Birmingham Stallions. Then you have Eyioma Uwazurike who found himself suspended for gambling. Then Neil Farrell who is now on his third team...... So, terrible year for D-line evaluation. Also shows you why you probably have to get one in the first round when you really need one.

Sanders is unfortunate - I'm a UC guy and I've heard some rumors regarding him, unfortunately. Word is that once he signed, he stopped working. Has/Had the speed/talent to rush - but once he got to the NFL he thought he'd made it. Started living the NFL life and spending way more money than he was making...

 

[redskinsfan1963]

a close toss up,henry will run wild though.

 

[cincygrad]

Sanders is unfortunate - I'm a UC guy and I've heard some rumors regarding him, unfortunately. Word is that once he signed, he stopped working. Has/Had the speed/talent to rush - but once he got to the NFL he thought he'd made it. Started living the NFL life and spending way more money than he was making...

Sadly, I think this is a big risk for D linemen coming into the league. Lots of these guys can dominate the college game with their athletic talent alone. But NFL offensive linemen are a different animal - And schemes are too good. It's not an easy job and probably not for everyone.

 

[DanBengalfan]

7-0 ravens to start.

weeeeee

 

[DanBengalfan]

17-14 at the half. this hasn't been so bad

 

[DanBengalfan]

well... this is familiar territory.

don't worry, we'll win just enough games that we don't draft someone who can help.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I know this will sound knee-jerk - but I'd fire Lou tonight.

This defense has now been an issue going on a year and 5 games...they are giving up almost 30ppg - and it would be worse if not for the crappy Patriots and lack of offense that game.

Is there anything more Cincinnati than watching an elite talent get wasted during their prime window?

Let this sink in - the Bengals could have a worse record this year than last year - and they missed Burrow for 10 games, and had him injured in another 3-4. They have an easier schedule this year, and a healthy Burrow - and could end up with 10+ losses because this defense couldn't fight its way out of a wet paper bag.

I like Lou - and when he's been on and had guys - he's done well, but these guys are his guys. He picked them. They can't get it done, and he can't/won't change how he calls a defense...something has to give. If the Bengals truly want to shake up the feeling of 1-4 and look to shock this defense into actually doing something - they need to make a move here at DC...I don't know who you'd look to at this point - but at this point anyone on this board could call a game and it literally would not be much worse.

 

[BKBroiler9000]

Zac Taylor needs to be shown the door after this year. This team needs new leadership.

Your QB is on fire. 400 yards and 5 TDs against a divisional opponent. You’re gifted a turnover in FG range with a chance to drive and put the game away.

So what do we do? 3 runs for no gain and settle for a 53 yard FG that the rookie holder bottles for a miss. Lose the game next play.

How many times can ownership watch this fucking idiot take the game out of Joe Burrow’s hands and lose a game late? Oh… and then ZT has the balls to blame Burrow changing the play at the line in the post game presser.

This has to be the most disappointing waste of a season in franchise history. The best we can hope for is a top 8 draft pick and cleaning house with the coaching staff.

This is another big test for Katie and the Blackburns. How much longer do they sit and watch this thing wither away on the vine? They simply can’t roll it back with this staff. If they can’t see changes need to be made then just trade Burrow and Chase and sell the team.