Series Thread: 7/22-7/28: @MIA, vs SD

[ThomasTomasz]

Let’s try to get some weekly discussion going here for games. Between the MLB main forum, this one and the Commanders forum, I see a lot of people with the Orioles listed as one of their favorite teams.

7/22: Off

7/23: @MIA 6:40 pm EST

7/24: @ MIA 6:40 pm EST

7/25: @ MIA 12:10 pm EST

7/26: vs SD 7:05 pm EST

7/27: vs SD 4:05 pm EST FS1

7/28: vs SD 1:35 pm EST

 

[ThomasTomasz]

This is brutal against a pretty awful Miami team. I think Suarez might be toast as a starter. A bullpen game after a day off is not bad, but we’re going to run short with a night game followed by a 12:10 game.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

This is brutal against a pretty awful Miami team. I think Suarez might be toast as a starter. A bullpen game after a day off is not bad, but we’re going to run short with a night game followed by a 12:10 game.

Hence my "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain [revisited]" comment in the main 2024 season thread... If there are three question marks in the rotation, is it time to consider the following crazy idea for the rotation in the short term?

• Only Burnes and Rodriguez will be used as "normal" starters; everyone else will be part of a relay team.
  
  
• The relay teams are Suarez (R) / Akin (L) and Kremer (R) / Irvin (L) in any order; if Povich / McDermott are also being considered, simply swap out anyone with the same handedness. Each "co-starter" on a relay team would be asked to pitch for about 3 innings (or twice through the order) three times in ten games, and would be considered interchangeable to some extent.

Here's how the rotation might look like in practice:

• Games 1-5: Burnes, Suarez / Akin, Rodriguez, Kremer / Irvin, Suarez / Akin
• Games 6-10: Burnes, Kremer / Irvin, Rodriguez, Suarez / Akin, Kremer / Irvin (the cycle repeats afterward)

"Wouldn't this modified 6-man rotation tax the bullpen too much?" That's a fair concern, but the status quo since mid-June is that our starters not named Burnes / Rodriguez would too often struggle to last 5 innings anyway, which is arguably worse for the bullpen:

• Assuming that the #1-2 starters can pitch for 6 innings while the #3-5 starters can only last 5, the 8-member bullpen would need to cover 18 innings (3 x 2 games + 4 x 3 games) every 5 games; that's 2.25 innings per person.
  
  
• With the modified arrangement where the relay teams of two are expected to go for a total of 6 innings per "start-equivalent," the 7-member bullpen would only need to cover 15 innings (or 2.14 innings per person) every 5 games.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I just don’t think you can do that for more than one starter, maybe two. However, I do think in 10-15 years, this might be the way that MLB is heading if they don’t dial back the obsession over max velocity and spin rate.

McDermott is getting called up for a spot start tonight. Should be must-watch TV.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I just don’t think you can do that for more than one starter, maybe two. However, I do think in 10-15 years, this might be the way that MLB is heading if they don’t dial back the obsession over max velocity and spin rate.

McDermott is getting called up for a spot start tonight. Should be must-watch TV.

At least McDermott wasn't terrible, and the divisional lead somehow survives again thanks to help from the Mets. But if this team's hitting is starting to become unreliable as well, one has to wonder whether it's time to make a few "addition by subtraction" moves for the position players (especially considering the rumors that some teams may be interested in Mountcastle and/or Mullins):

• Assuming that Mateo will be unavailable for a while, they might as well try starting Norby at 2B
  
  
• If Norby becomes the starting 2B, Westburg can stay at 3B (where his defense is better anyway), thus allowing Urías to be replaced by Mayo as the backup 3B
  
  
• If Mountcastle is traded, some of his playing time can go to Mayo or Kjerstad
  
  
• If Mullins is traded, Cowser becomes the starting CF (which is still backed up by Hays), and the vacated LF spot can be given to Stowers or Kjerstad. (Would this be a defensive downgrade? Apparently, Cowser is very serviceable at CF, which means that the question is more about LF.)

This is not to mention that being willing to trade vets would also open up additional possibilities for upgrading pitching further... although this may require complicated 3-team trades where the Orioles send a major league player to another contender, which sends prospects (along with the Orioles) to a rebuilding team that has major league pitchers to spare.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Kimbrel is not good with the new rules. If a runner gets on, and you can only attempt a pickoff twice, there is no chance at holding a runner with decent speed because he is so deliberate to the plate.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I’m also not going to complain if we do trade Mountcastle or Mullins. I honestly thought that Mullins and Hays, along with Santander, were not being factored into next year anyway if you listen to the prospects that are (and are not) available. Additionally, Mountcastle, while providing very good defense at 1B, is an extremely streaky hitter but also cost-controlled, and that could help us get a pitcher of similar value.

Also moving forward, I think Urias time here is numbered- but he could last the year if Mullins or Mounty get moved- but the long-term utility play here is Jorge Mateo due to his speed and positional versatility up the middle.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Perez preserves the win, sets Marlins down straight with two strikeouts including their hottest hitter.

I know there was an error there by Henderson that didn’t help, but Kimbrel is toast if a runner like Gordon gets on.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Mateo on the IL indefinitely for a left-elbow subluxation, and Norby will receive ‘regular’ playing time at 2B in the meantime.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Kimbrel is not good with the new rules. If a runner gets on, and you can only attempt a pickoff twice, there is no chance at holding a runner with decent speed because he is so deliberate to the plate.

Perez preserves the win, sets Marlins down straight with two strikeouts including their hottest hitter.

I know there was an error there by Henderson that didn’t help, but Kimbrel is toast if a runner like Gordon gets on.

Two thoughts on this:

• Kimbrel could be inadequate as a closer, while still being the least bad option on paper right now (at least from the standpoint of K%). Since Cano wasn't particularly effective in the closer role previously either, and Coulombe is currently unavailable, that probably leaves Pérez or Webb as the alternatives (unless this team wants to consider a closer-by-committee system).
  
  
• One could also question Hyde's decision in this game regarding bullpen usage: Why put in Webb with a 5-run lead or deploy Kimbrel with a 3-run lead? Yes, I do realize that there was pressure to at least salvage the third game after losing two straight to a bad team... But when the win probability in the situation is >95%, one should be willing to try to shift some of that to the next game by having a worse reliever eat the last two innings instead. In that regard, wasting Webb and Kimbrel in this game ended up being the worst of both worlds: They are now unavailable for tomorrow, while the lead was blown anyway (at least the Orioles still managed to steal a win).

Mateo on the IL indefinitely for a left-elbow subluxation, and Norby will receive ‘regular’ playing time at 2B in the meantime.

Now to think of it, Mateo's injury has created a new issue despite Norby being possibly serviceable at 2B: Who's backing up Henderson at SS now? (Probably Urías or Westburg in a pinch? It looks like Henderson's hitting has regressed somewhat in July, and you have to wonder if having to play every day has anything to do with that...)

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Two thoughts on this:

• Kimbrel could be inadequate as a closer, while still being the least bad option on paper right now (at least from the standpoint of K%). Since Cano wasn't particularly effective in the closer role previously either, and Coulombe is currently unavailable, that probably leaves Pérez or Webb as the alternatives (unless this team wants to consider a closer-by-committee system).
  
  
• One could also question Hyde's decision in this game regarding bullpen usage: Why put in Webb with a 5-run lead or deploy Kimbrel with a 3-run lead? Yes, I do realize that there was pressure to at least salvage the third game after losing two straight to a bad team... But when the win probability in the situation is >95%, one should be willing to try to shift some of that to the next game by having a worse reliever eat the last two innings instead. In that regard, wasting Webb and Kimbrel in this game ended up being the worst of both worlds: They are now unavailable for tomorrow, while the lead was blown anyway (at least the Orioles still managed to steal a win).

Now to think of it, Mateo's injury has created a new issue despite Norby being possibly serviceable at 2B: Who's backing up Henderson at SS now? (Probably Urías or Westburg in a pinch? It looks like Henderson's hitting has regressed somewhat in July, and you have to wonder if having to play every day has anything to do with that...)

Yeah, I am concerned about that backup SS too. Urias hasn’t even played 65 total games at the position in the majors- not counting if they were full- in his career, and none since 2022 where he played 8. Urias can probably go there in an emergency, but Mateo is a big loss there. I really don’t even want to waste a spot on someone like Dejong either, who is going to play SS/DH only.

I’m also not sure in a 12:10 game if Webb or Kimbrel would be unavailable tonight. Totally depends on the pitch count and other situations. Will be interesting to see how the bullpen is handled.

I‘ll be there tonight, as my season tickets fall on today. I’ll also be there for the double-header on Monday.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Nice to see almost a packed house for floppy hat night and fireworks. But man, this team is still trying to figure stuff out.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Yeah, I am concerned about that backup SS too. Urias hasn’t even played 65 total games at the position in the majors- not counting if they were full- in his career, and none since 2022 where he played 8. Urias can probably go there in an emergency, but Mateo is a big loss there.

Overreaction of the day: Does this team need to trade for a backup infielder as well to get through the next month? It looks like fielding errors alone might make the difference for this game, and the issue can arguably be traced to "for want of Jorge Mateo":

• Henderson can't take a day off since there's no real backup SS, and as a result both his offense and defense are starting to suffer; unless the Orioles organization is willing to rush Holliday again, they don't really have anyone who can be called up from AAA to be the backup SS (unless you're considering Nick Maton, whose hitting is even worse than that of Urías)
  
  
• It looks like Westburg can't afford to take a day off either, given Urías's defense today (and replacing Urías with Mayo probably won't work since the latter is now being penciled in as Mountcastle's successor at 1B).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

... And Irvin seems to be failing at the long reliever role as well. I guess that probably makes the decision easier regarding who to DFA in order to add Zach Eflin to the active roster by Monday?

 

[ThomasTomasz]

It’s a mess right now. I think at this point, you need to stick with Urias playing every day If you are committed to him. Guy does play elite defense, but probably just needs to be doing it at the same position every day. But the lack of a backup SS is really, really hurting, and unless Mullins is moved, I don’t know who they are sending down.

I’d be interested to see how Irvin does with a spot start at this point after having a lot of time off during this month.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

It’s a mess right now. I think at this point, you need to stick with Urias playing every day If you are committed to him. Guy does play elite defense, but probably just needs to be doing it at the same position every day. But the lack of a backup SS is really, really hurting, and unless Mullins is moved, I don’t know who they are sending down.

I’d be interested to see how Irvin does with a spot start at this point after having a lot of time off during this month.

For the infield, I think the current default lineup is still Westburg at 3B and Norby at 2B unless anyone needs a day off. Assuming that Urías stays, the Orioles may need to trade Mountcastle in order to open up another infield roster spot for a backup SS.

As for Irvin, I don't see an obvious spot start opportunity given the team's current slump. For example, the 7/29 doubleheader is most likely going to feature Eflin + McDermott (as the extra player) since both of them last pitched on 7/24 (Irvin probably won't be considered after pitching for 2 innings today even if someone else is sent down for Eflin).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

(Irvin probably won't be considered after pitching for 2 innings today even if someone else is sent down for Eflin).

Correction: I meant yesterday (7/27), and it looks like they sent down Baker instead.

Considering that Irvin is arguably worse from an advanced stats standpoint (read: expected ERA = 5.86) but is currently out of options, I guess they are really penciling him for the mop-up role? If that's the case, they might as well let Irvin pitch the equivalent of a full start in games where waving the white flag makes sense... in order to save the rest of the bullpen).

 

[ThomasTomasz]

For the infield, I think the current default lineup is still Westburg at 3B and Norby at 2B unless anyone needs a day off. Assuming that Urías stays, the Orioles may need to trade Mountcastle in order to open up another infield roster spot for a backup SS.

As for Irvin, I don't see an obvious spot start opportunity given the team's current slump. For example, the 7/29 doubleheader is most likely going to feature Eflin + McDermott (as the extra player) since both of them last pitched on 7/24 (Irvin probably won't be considered after pitching for 2 innings today even if someone else is sent down for Eflin).

Yeah, unless they‘re sending down Kjerstad or Pache, which I don’t think they’re doing at this point, that backup SS isn’t there until Mateo is back. I think they’re going to roll with it Personally.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Defense and offense has absolutely showed up today.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Defense and offense has absolutely showed up today.

Oof... Famous last words

(With Henderson committing at least one error for 4 consecutive games, it might be time to roll the dice with playing other guys out of position for a day in order to give him a mental break...)