Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[wilwhite]

This is not correct. From memory the Panthers paid $7M of Bridgewater's $13M guaranteed salary. The Broncos giving up a 6th for Bridgewater with a $6M contract was an 'at-that-moment' market value. It does NOT imply that a 6th is worth $7M. If Bridgewater had been on a $25M salary with the Panthers the Panthers would have had to eat $19M to move Bridgewater on that deal.

The clearest valuation for a pick is the Rams-Dolphins trade of Aqib Talib. Talib was on IR and was going to retire at the end of the season. The Rams gave up a 5th round pick to the Dolphins who would pay Talib the remaining $4M of his salary before he retired.

That last bit is useful. What year was that?

You're right about Bridgewater - it was $10 million in guaranteed money so they had to pay at least the $7 million regardless.

You don't have to go by memory... there's spotrac. Teddy Bridgewater

 

[fastforward]

If we're putting a price on things, what's the monetary value to the club of a win over the Steelers versus a loss? That, times the likelihood that Mayfield on the Steelers would cost them a win, times the number of times they'd likely face him over his Steelers career, is the number you're comparing the $3 million to. For fun say you can identify the win value at $10 million, and an estimated 10% chance Mayfield being on the Steelers means you lose, and figuring you face him eight times, that would be $8 million. Same math on the Panthers and you only face him twice, that would be $2 million.

Made-up numbers, but you get the idea. They have to do some version of that calculation, even if it's just by their gut.

Divisional rivals have a budget, the same as our teams do. Our teams can't stop them acquiring talented players and we can't control 15 of their 17 wins or losses. If they overspend for talent it's a plus for our teams. I wouldn't have minded if the Rams had traded WR Woods to the 49ers for no pick. The Rams took the view that Woods wasn't worth $10M to them. They were prepared to cut him and let him go wherever he wanted. I don't believe Woods would have got $10M as a FA. If the 49ers had offered a 6th for Woods at $10M it would have been 2 pluses for the Rams. There's a plus for the pick and a plus for overspending.

 

[fastforward]

That last bit is useful. What year was that?

You're right about Bridgewater - it was $10 million in guaranteed money so they had to pay at least the $7 million regardless.

You don't have to go by memory... there's spotrac. Teddy Bridgewater

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jppelzman/2021/04/28/teddy-bridgewater-traded-to-denver-costing-the-carolina-panthers-a-lot-of-salary-cap-space/

https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/27957983/rams-trade-cb-aqib-talib-pick-dolphins

 

[wilwhite]

Divisional rivals have a budget, the same as our teams do. Our teams can't stop them acquiring talented players and we can't control 15 of their 17 wins or losses. If they overspend for talent it's a plus for our teams. I wouldn't have minded if the Rams had traded WR Woods to the 49ers for no pick. The Rams took the view that Woods wasn't worth $10M to them. They were prepared to cut him and let him go wherever he wanted. I don't believe Woods would have got $10M as a FA. If the 49ers had offered a 6th for Woods at $10M it would have been 2 pluses for the Rams. There's a plus for the pick and a plus for overspending.

Well, yeah, if the Browns think Mayfield's contract would be a net negative for the Steelers, sure.

But Mayfield could sign with the Steelers for the minimum this year and still make $19 million. Hard to see how that's a good outcome for the Browns.

 

[fastforward]

Well, yeah, if the Browns think Mayfield's contract would be a net negative for the Steelers, sure.

But Mayfield could sign with the Steelers for the minimum this year and still make $19 million. Hard to see how that's a good outcome for the Browns.

If a FA wants to sign for the Steelers at minimum wage you can't prevent it. All the Browns can do is either get the best use out of Mayfield or get someone else to pay for a significant part of his contract. If the Browns retain Mayfield at $18.86M and get nothing out of it that isn't a good result either. $18.86M is pretty much what Tavon Austin's extension cost the Rams for 1 year of sitting on the bench. That was a crappy year, but the years since have been great.

I don't see Mayfield being cut, but if he is cut he'd be an idiot to put himself in a bad situation with no preseason training for very little money. He could earn more as a tv analyst/presenter in 2022 and then get a $9M prove it deal in 2023.

 

[DJ]

No, they'd never trade him there.

But if the Browns can't get a deal done and cut him... hahahahahahahaha.

That's why I don't think the Browns can cut him - too easy for it to bite them in the ass. And they have to pay the money anyway. They'll trade him or keep him.

If the Carolina offer is bad (Browns pay the whole salary and Carolina gives a 2024 6th, for example), I think the Browns would decide to just keep Mayfield. And if the Browns keep him, both sides will figure out that he should play.

So Carolina has to offer just above whatever that "bad" line is for the Browns.

Me, I'm rooting for cutting or keeping, because this trade looks boring as hell, except that the Browns face the Panthers Week 1.

Exactly. He won't be released because the Steelers would be 1 of the first teams expressing interest.

 

[DJ]

Agree to disagree. Trades are normally about offering as little as possible over the 'bad line'. I don't see teams being scared to trade with a divisional rival as they were 15+ years ago. If the Browns price is $9M, an NFC team is prepared to pay $9M, but the Steelers are prepared to pay $12M then send him to the Steelers. The Browns are $3M better off and a divisional rival is $3M worse off than if they'd spent their money elsewhere. Business is business.

3 mill is very little in the grand scheme of things.

 

[wilwhite]

If a FA wants to sign for the Steelers at minimum wage you can't prevent it. All the Browns can do is either get the best use out of Mayfield or get someone else to pay for a significant part of his contract. If the Browns retain Mayfield at $18.86M and get nothing out of it that isn't a good result either. $18.86M is pretty much what Tavon Austin's extension cost the Rams for 1 year of sitting on the bench. That was a crappy year, but the years since have been great.

I don't see Mayfield being cut, but if he is cut he'd be an idiot to put himself in a bad situation with no preseason training for very little money. He could earn more as a tv analyst/presenter in 2022 and then get a $9M prove it deal in 2023.

If he isn't traded and isn't cut, it makes sense on both sides for him to play - unless the Browns are terrified of what follows if he does well.

I also don't see him being cut, though many here are certain he will be if no trade gets done.

If the Browns could trade him to the Steelers at terms that make it a kind of poison pill I'm sure they would, but the Steelers are way too smart for that.

 

[Cincyfan78]

If he isn't traded and isn't cut, it makes sense on both sides for him to play - unless the Browns are terrified of what follows if he does well.

I also don't see him being cut, though many here are certain he will be if no trade gets done.

If the Browns could trade him to the Steelers at terms that make it a kind of poison pill I'm sure they would, but the Steelers are way too smart for that.

Disagree.

If he plays for the Browns, who have 0% interest in re-signing him, and Baker has 0% interest in remaining, and he gets hurt again - what's his next move? His value tanks.

If he pulls a Mendenhall and sits out the bulk of the year, and then just loafs around for 6 games (or whatever it is) but never plays - I don't think there's a team out there that would blame him considering how this whole thing has been handled.

 

[jarntt]

Not sure you can really pay your way to a higher pick in this league. I think the pick has more to do with the value and remaining longevity of the player and the money more to do with other concerns.

If you don't think Baker at $19M for the new team fetches less than Baker at $9Mish per, then I can only say I strongly disagree.
I'm pretty sure if Amari Cooper was only getting $10M per year instead of $20M per he would have brought back more in a trade than he did.

 

[jarntt]

Another of many opinions out there. Personally I think it would be a pretty even battle between Darnold and Baker to see who wins the job. I also think whichever does win the job is still not the starter next year because neither is an NFL starter IMO and Car will be drafting or signing a new QB in 2023

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Another of many opinions out there. Personally I think it would be a pretty even battle between Darnold and Baker to see who wins the job. I also think whichever does win the job is still not the starter next year because neither is an NFL starter IMO and Car will be drafting or signing a new QB in 2023

If Baker cant beat out Darnold. He should just retire. In fact if any QB that cant beat out darnold, should just realize they are now just a back up at best.

 

[dtgold88]

Looks like the teams are in fact negotiating, if you can trust "sources" in the sports industry.

I don't. Teams treat draft, trade, FA, etc. intel like they are the CIA.

 

[wilwhite]

Disagree.

If he plays for the Browns, who have 0% interest in re-signing him, and Baker has 0% interest in remaining, and he gets hurt again - what's his next move? His value tanks.

If he pulls a Mendenhall and sits out the bulk of the year, and then just loafs around for 6 games (or whatever it is) but never plays - I don't think there's a team out there that would blame him considering how this whole thing has been handled.

Sitting out and loafing will never be looked on kindly by front offices.

Mayfield has always liked to “bet on himself,” and this would be another opportunity for that. Yes, his value tanks if he gets hurt, but his value has already dropped quite a bit. The only way for him to make good money in 2023 is to play well in 2022.

The next time he plays will be underpaid on a prove-it contract or underpaid on a long-term contract. Unless he plays well this year.

 

[dtgold88]

If he isn't traded and isn't cut, it makes sense on both sides for him to play - unless the Browns are terrified of what follows if he does well.

I also don't see him being cut, though many here are certain he will be if no trade gets done.

If the Browns could trade him to the Steelers at terms that make it a kind of poison pill I'm sure they would, but the Steelers are way too smart for that.

I think you have made that comment before (apologies if you haven't) and to me it's kooky talk to think the Browns would be terrified of Baker playing well in a season we are looking to get to the SB.

I've heard some players say they don't worry about the crap fans think they worry about nearly as much as fans and media think they do. They just worry about their own jobs and they want to win.

 

[dtgold88]

Disagree.

If he plays for the Browns, who have 0% interest in re-signing him, and Baker has 0% interest in remaining, and he gets hurt again - what's his next move? His value tanks.

If he pulls a Mendenhall and sits out the bulk of the year, and then just loafs around for 6 games (or whatever it is) but never plays - I don't think there's a team out there that would blame him considering how this whole thing has been handled.

Or how about if he has confidence in himself and comes in and plays well?

I'd add baker having 0% interest in staying is exaggerated. Browns call him tonight and offer him 4 years, $160 mil he says no?

 

[jarntt]

I don't. Teams treat draft, trade, FA, etc. intel like they are the CIA.

It seems to be that very often news leaks out before deals like this are finalized

 

[dtgold88]

It seems to be that very often news leaks out before deals like this are finalized

I mean it's possible but also possible the "news" is just a guess. What happens more often it seems is deals like this get made and it is something unexpected. In all sports.

 

[jarntt]

I think you have made that comment before (apologies if you haven't) and to me it's kooky talk to think the Browns would be terrified of Baker playing well in a season we are looking to get to the SB.

I've heard some players say they don't worry about the crap fans think they worry about nearly as much as fans and media think they do. They just worry about their own jobs and they want to win.

I was kind of confused by that comment. What team wouldn’t want their QB to play well? I thought maybe I missed something

 

[jarntt]

I mean it's possible but also possible the "news" is just a guess. What happens more often it seems is deals like this get made and it is something unexpected. In all sports.

my team‘s GM waived his draft card in front of the world, so maybe it’s just a Cowboy things

but in all seriousness the leaking of info is why all of these twitter guys have jobs