Playoff Picture - Week 9

[ericd7633]

AP Top 25 Strength of Schedule:

1. Alabama - 52
2. Clemson - 39
3. Notre Dame - 29
4. LSU - 4
5. Michigan - 13
6. Texas - 15
7. Georgia - 40
8. Oklahoma - 25
9. Florida - 32
10. Central Florida - 127
11. Ohio State - 58
12. Kentucky - 31
13. West Virginia - 56
14. Washington State - 74
15. Washington - 16
16. Texas A&M - 27
17. Penn State - 35
18. Iowa - 30
19. Oregon - 63
20. Wisconsin - 70
21. South Florida - 126
22. NC State - 37
23. Utah - 14
24. Stanford - 10
25. Appalachian State - 120

Top 10 Strength of Record:

1. Notre Dame
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Alabama
5. Michigan
6. Kentucky
7. Ohio State
8. Georgia
9. Texas
10. Florida

Top 10 Game Control:

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. West Virginia
7. Iowa
8. Oklahoma
9. Washington
10. Michigan

 

[nddulac]

Take about the top eight or so, and anyone who wins out will make the playoffs.

The big exception is Alabama, who can absorb a loss pretty much anywhere, including the SEC championship game, and still get in.

 

[rmilia1]

I still don't get how SOR works. I always thought it was based on how an average team would perform vs your schedule but there are 1 loss teams ranked in the top 10 of SOR who have worse SOS than 1 loss teams who aren't top 10 in SOR. What am I missing @ericd7633

 

[ericd7633]

I still don't get how SOR works. I always thought it was based on how an average team would perform vs your schedule but there are 1 loss teams ranked in the top 10 of SOR who have worse SOS than 1 loss teams who aren't top 10 in SOR. What am I missing @ericd7633

There is more emphasis on playing and beating truly "elite" team(s). The reason why a team like Ohio State is still in the top 10 of SOR is because they won and played the #7 team(Penn St, according to FPI), despite overall playing a pretty mediocre schedule. It also should be noted the SOS and SOR numbers are according to the FPI. There aren't going to be too many metrics that still consider Penn State a top 10 team, at least at this moment. It really comes down to what your best accomplishment(s) is/are.

 

[rmilia1]

There is more emphasis on playing and beating truly "elite" team(s). The reason why a team like Ohio State is still in the top 10 of SOR is because they won and played the #7 team(Penn St, according to FPI), despite overall playing a pretty mediocre schedule. It also should be noted the SOS and SOR numbers are according to the FPI. There aren't going to be too many metrics that still consider Penn State a top 10 team, at least at this moment. It really comes down to what your best accomplishment(s) is/are.

Gotcha. So they look at everything individually as opposed to just a general grouping . That makes more sense although still tough to fathom how OSU would be ahead of say Texas

 

[ericd7633]

Gotcha. So they look at everything individually as opposed to just a general grouping . That makes more sense although still tough to fathom how OSU would be ahead of say Texas

According to FPI OU and PSU is essentially a wash. But Ohio State has also played at #23 Purdue and #40 TCU, while Texas has played #38 USC and #40 TCU. Also, I wish I knew, but I don't, is if location plays a role into SOR. Ohio State had to play true road games at PSU and Purdue, while Texas played OU on a neutral and got USC at home. Texas had played more mediocre teams(MD, Baylor, KSU) as opposed to Ohio State whose other games are against bad teams(Oregon St, Tulane, Rutgers). Texas just doesn't have the sore spot on the schedule, Tulsa to an extent, but even they are rated better than Oregon St, and Rutgers.

 

[rmilia1]

According to FPI OU and PSU is essentially a wash. But Ohio State has also played at #23 Purdue and #40 TCU, while Texas has played #38 USC and #40 TCU. Also, I wish I knew, but I don't, is if location plays a role into SOR. Ohio State had to play true road games at PSU and Purdue, while Texas played OU on a neutral and got USC at home. Texas had played more mediocre teams(MD, Baylor, KSU) as opposed to Ohio State whose other games are against bad teams(Oregon St, Tulane, Rutgers). Texas just doesn't have the sore spot on the schedule, Tulsa to an extent, but even they are rated better than Oregon St, and Rutgers.

It'd be interesting to see an SOR based on Massey or FEI as opposed to FPI as I'm guessing they'd be very different

 

[ericd7633]

It'd be interesting to see an SOR based on Massey or FEI as opposed to FPI as I'm guessing they'd be very different

Oh yeah, it would be much different. Massey's got PSU at 17, Purdue at 28 and TCU at 43, in total a difference of 18 spots just on those 3 teams alone for Ohio State.

 

[4down20]

It'd be interesting to see an SOR based on Massey or FEI as opposed to FPI as I'm guessing they'd be very different

Yes it would be different because the power ratings are different.

But they should all be in the same general ball park for the most part. And you have to realize what they are to apply them properly.

 

[4down20]

Oh yeah, it would be much different. Massey's got PSU at 17, Purdue at 28 and TCU at 43, in total a difference of 18 spots just on those 3 teams alone for Ohio State.

Well my normal SoS method hasn't been updated since the 8th and seems to be abandoned for now. Sucks ass.

Here's fplus though: Combines S&P and FEI, but mostly - just easier to see the values for both at the same time.

2018 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS | Football Outsiders

 

[Cafe_Puro]

SOS is like everything else in CFB subjective. I am still not sure How LSU doesnt have the Toughest SOS.. 4 top 10 games and 6 top 25 total. Ive seen a few different sources but they dont add up. One had #1 UCLA, #2 FSU #3 LSU #4 Mich

UCLA nor FSU had 4 top 10 games.. FSU does have 3 top 10 Now, however.. But not the number 1 and 2 at that time.. NCST and FLA werent ranked preseason.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

I hope UF somehow beats Joja and plays out of their minds in the SECCG to only lose by enough to warrant a playoff spot.

Then, I hope we lose by like 100 in both playoff games just to be disappointing to everyone. That'd be awesome!

 

[GoldRusher]

Big12 is set up to get in. Texas and OU are juuuuust far enough out that if(when) they meet in the CCG the winner is in.

Rest of the conference has zero chance at beating either one from here on in, watch how the lil yellow birds fly at the games, holding/PI calls galore will go in their favor guaranteed...

Oh wel, the money is nice

 

[rmilia1]

SOS is like everything else in CFB subjective. I am still not sure How LSU doesnt have the Toughest SOS.. 4 top 10 games and 6 top 25 total. Ive seen a few different sources but they dont add up. One had #1 UCLA, #2 FSU #3 LSU #4 Mich

UCLA nor FSU had 4 top 10 games.. FSU does have 3 top 10 Now, however.. But not the number 1 and 2 at that time.. NCST and FLA werent ranked preseason.

Because teams that lose games end up with better SoS because their opponents have better results .

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I guess LSU bout to be lemonaided

 

[rmilia1]

Big12 is set up to get in. Texas and OU are juuuuust far enough out that if(when) they meet in the CCG the winner is in.

Rest of the conference has zero chance at beating either one from here on in, watch how the lil yellow birds fly at the games, holding/PI calls galore will go in their favor guaranteed...

Oh wel, the money is nice

Iowa St control their own destiny along with WVUvas well . Lot left to play for in the B12. Rare to have 4 teams left who have their fate in their own hands halfway through conference play

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

Iowa St control their own destiny along with WVUvas well

Iowa State doesnt control their own destiny
Even if they win out, they can only finish 7-2 in the Big 12.

Texas can lose to Iowa State and still finish 8-1.
OU can win out and finish 8-1 or go 7-2 with tiebreak over ISU.

Iowa State needs at least one more loss by either Texas or Oklahoma, or they can be shut out even if they run the table.

 

[Yo Tee]

I really only think 9 teams have a realistic chance at the playoff, using the way the committee has chosen in the past. Clemson, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame. I believe Kentucky has a very outside chance, but not playing Alabama or LSU makes their resume weaker in my opinion. So the 4 SEC teams will end up battling it all out amongst themselves for the rest of the season.

• Georgia plays Florida and Bama plays LSU. I believe the winner of those two will end up playing for the SEC title. So that eliminates two of those teams.
• Clemson's remaining schedule seems to be very easy. Can't really see any trap games for them.
• Michigan still has Penn State and Ohio State.
• Texas still has West Virginia and a POTENTIAL trap game against Iowa State who have been known to play spoiler before while Oklahoma has West Virginia and Oklahoma State which can be a trap game for Oklahoma. They will probably end up playing each other in the Big 12 title game barring any losses so loser is out on that one.
• Notre Dame has a trap game of it's own in USC. USC might be a spoiler this year.

 

[rmilia1]

Iowa State doesnt control their own destiny
Even if they win out, they can only finish 7-2 in the Big 12.

Texas can lose to Iowa State and still finish 8-1.
OU can win out and finish 8-1 or go 7-2 with tiebreak over ISU.

Iowa State needs at least one more loss by either Texas or Oklahoma, or they can be shut out even if they run the table.

Good catch . I was thinking Texas already had a conference loss

 

[pitman]

So, Alabama- LSU - Georgia and Florida it is then