- Thread starter
- #1
Villain
#VillainYourFriend
By the numbers:
K% - Nope. It's right in line with career rate. 21.7% now versus 22.1% career.
BB% - Nope. 7.2%, which is better than his 9.4% career rate.
K-BB% - Nope (obviously)
BABIP - Ehhhhh still not the one! .305 now versus .299 career. A .300 BABIP is league average for all of baseball history.
WHIP - Crappy stat, but he's right where he's always been. 1.42 now versus 1.35 career.
HR/9 - Well there's your problem!!!! 2.17 now versus 1.01 career.
What does that mean? It could mean that hitters are just plain getting lucky. Everything else is where it always is except for one number, a regression to the mean should be expected where that home run rate will normalize and he'll stop giving up so many runs.
Let's go a little deeper.
Velocity:
Average Exit Velocity:
2015 ---> 87.6mph
2016 ---> 85.9mph
Okay, so on average he's not getting hit harder (in fact he's doing even better). His pitch velocity isn't abnormal.
So, if everything is "normal," then why the hell is he giving up more than twice as many home runs as usual?
K% - Nope. It's right in line with career rate. 21.7% now versus 22.1% career.
BB% - Nope. 7.2%, which is better than his 9.4% career rate.
K-BB% - Nope (obviously)
BABIP - Ehhhhh still not the one! .305 now versus .299 career. A .300 BABIP is league average for all of baseball history.
WHIP - Crappy stat, but he's right where he's always been. 1.42 now versus 1.35 career.
HR/9 - Well there's your problem!!!! 2.17 now versus 1.01 career.
What does that mean? It could mean that hitters are just plain getting lucky. Everything else is where it always is except for one number, a regression to the mean should be expected where that home run rate will normalize and he'll stop giving up so many runs.
Let's go a little deeper.
Velocity:
Average Exit Velocity:
2015 ---> 87.6mph
2016 ---> 85.9mph
Okay, so on average he's not getting hit harder (in fact he's doing even better). His pitch velocity isn't abnormal.
So, if everything is "normal," then why the hell is he giving up more than twice as many home runs as usual?