West Division Projections

[gp956]

Pythagorean method projects:

Dbacks 87.85
Giants 87.63

Baseball Prospectus Simulation:

Giants 91.5
Dbacks 85.2

 

[Robotech]

Pythagorean method projects:

Dbacks 87.85
Giants 87.63

Baseball Prospectus Simulation:

Giants 91.5
Dbacks 85.2

I'll have to go with the Baseball Prospectus Simulation. The Pythagorean method is too basic and does not account for the upcoming schedule.

 

[Robotech]

Pythagorean method doesn't account for roster changes either. I'm assuming the Baseball Prospectus simulation does.

 

[Stokes1931]

"Giants no better than 3rd in the NL West. Book it."- NN

 

[Robotech]

"Giants no better than 3rd in the NL West. Book it."- NN

Would you call NN's projection a method or a simulation? LOL!

 

[Robotech]

I like looking at the AccuScore projection, too.

 

[SFAnthem]

I'll have to go with the Baseball Prospectus Simulation. The Pythagorean method is too basic and does not account for the upcoming schedule.

nor games started by Zito.

 

[Robotech]

nor games started by Zito.

Good point.

 

[SFAnthem]

"Giants no better than 3rd in the NL West. Book it."- NN

Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett = Padres contenders once again! Giants fans be afraid wooohoooowooo

 

[gp956]

What is Baseball Prospectus doing?

We've consolidated the playoff odds report down into one report, where we use a combination of third-order wins and PECOTA projected wins (the exact amount of each involved is a function of how far along in the season we are - the later in the season, the less PECOTA and the more third-order will be used).

What is PECOTA?

Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons. PECOTA analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors.

What is Third Order Wins?

Pythagenport wins and losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA

Pythagenport?

A modified form of Bill James' Pythagorean formula previously used in our Adjusted Standings calculations, since replaced by Pythagenpat.

Pythagenport was the first such formula to use the team's run environment to modify what in the original formula had been a fixed exponent (2 or 1.83), deriving the exponent as X = .45 + 1.5 * log10 ((rs + ra)/g). The winning percentage is then calculated as (rs^x)/(rs^x + ra^x). The formula has been tested for run environments between 4 and 40 runs per game, but breaks down below 4 rpg.

NOTE CURRENT RUN ENVIRONMENT IS: 3.54 for the Giants


AEQR?

Adjusted Equivalent Runs: The number of equivalent runs scored by a team, adjusted for the quality of their opponents' pitching and defense.

AEQRA?

Adjusted Equivalent Runs Allowed: The number of equivalent runs allowed by a team, adjusted for the quality of their opponents' offense.

 

[gp956]

Interesting....if we take BP's own comments as accurate, then their projection should end up converging to a simple pythagorean formula. It seems a little backwards to reduce the weighting of PECOTA projections as the season goes along - given trades and waiver wire pickups.

 

[calsnowskier]

Would you call NN's projection a meathead or a simulation? LOL!

I pick this one...

 

[Heathbar012]

I always just stick with the simple cross-multiplication technique of games won/games played=x/162. It's rather pointless at the beginning of the year, and doesn't take any variables into account, so it is extremely simplistic. In this case, it actually ends up between the two projections. Last Friday, it would've been two wins higher than BP's today.

 

[msgkings322]

I'll have to go with the Baseball Prospectus Simulation. The Pythagorean method is too basic and does not account for the upcoming schedule.

Also, it has the Dbacks winning, so that can't be right.

 

[Robotech]

Also, it has the Dbacks winning, so that can't be right.

Somebody finally called me out on that.

 

[Stokes1931]

What is Baseball Prospectus doing?

We've consolidated the playoff odds report down into one report, where we use a combination of third-order wins and PECOTA projected wins (the exact amount of each involved is a function of how far along in the season we are - the later in the season, the less PECOTA and the more third-order will be used).

What is PECOTA?

Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP's proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons. PECOTA analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors.

What is Third Order Wins?

Pythagenport wins and losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA

Pythagenport?

A modified form of Bill James' Pythagorean formula previously used in our Adjusted Standings calculations, since replaced by Pythagenpat.

Pythagenport was the first such formula to use the team's run environment to modify what in the original formula had been a fixed exponent (2 or 1.83), deriving the exponent as X = .45 + 1.5 * log10 ((rs + ra)/g). The winning percentage is then calculated as (rs^x)/(rs^x + ra^x). The formula has been tested for run environments between 4 and 40 runs per game, but breaks down below 4 rpg.

NOTE CURRENT RUN ENVIRONMENT IS: 3.54 for the Giants


AEQR?

Adjusted Equivalent Runs: The number of equivalent runs scored by a team, adjusted for the quality of their opponents' pitching and defense.

AEQRA?

Adjusted Equivalent Runs Allowed: The number of equivalent runs allowed by a team, adjusted for the quality of their opponents' offense.

I have a Math degree from Berkeley, and none of this "computes" to me. Let's just project that the Giants will win the West, and be done with it.

 

[Stokes1931]

Also, it has the Dbacks winning, so that can't be right.

Rep!!

 

[ColinCoby]

I have a Math degree from Berkeley, and none of this "computes" to me. Let's just project that the Giants will win the West, and be done with it.

Finally someone with a real degree on this board.

 

[msgkings322]

Rep!!

 

[gp956]

Latest Projections

Pythagorean method projects:

Dbacks 87.05
Giants 86.09

Baseball Prospectus Simulation:

Giants 90.2
Dbacks 84.7