Under the radar/underrated players in this year's draft ...

[The Q]

Given the new CBA rules, the draft has become more about age (draft as young as possible) and risk (finding the next unicorn). Every team thinks they can find the next Giannis, Draymond, or Kawhi lurking later in the draft. In reality, these are outliers.

I don't know if the NBA is approaching MLB territory in a risk-based approach to drafting high school players versus college players. If that happens and more teams in the lottery take bigger risks on younger, athletic freaks, that might allow the older, potentially more established players fall to already successful teams. These players might not have the ceiling as the younger players, but you already have 3-4 years worth of data to analyze. On top of that, you have the complexity of evaluating foreign talent in different leagues and different styles of play.

Should be interesting to see how this develops over the next 5-10 years.

This article sums it up nicely

What predicts NBA success?

biggest facotrs are age, college performance and quality of school. But age is always a huge factor in nba success.

 

[uncfan103]

In the end I look at production and how they produced despite their size. This guy was efficient while chucking like AI and he didn't have a system it was him just dominating the game by himself. I know the competition wasn't great but I'd be willing to take this guy in the second round for sure.

I assume he won't get drafted and will have to try out for the D league since he's a midget and played against weak competition. After averaging 30+ in the D league for a year I assume he will at least get a chance to ball at the pro level.

It didn't help Pierre Jackson.

 

[uncfan103]

That's not really maxing out his value. How much value can you get for $6M+ in cap space? He's way underpaid, limiting that trade return.

But getting something in return is better than
a) giving him a max contract
b) letting him walk after next season.

 

[Sparhawk]

This article sums it up nicely

What predicts NBA success?

biggest facotrs are age, college performance and quality of school. But age is always a huge factor in nba success.

Thanks for sharing that.

"This is consistent with another recent study that found that college performance does a better job of predicting performance than draft position."

"The problem is not that data is unavailable or that performance is difficult to predict. No, it appears that decision-makers often consider factors... that are not relevant to future performance."

"What truly saddens me is that we are often blind to potential, based on preconceived ideas about how skill develops. Research shows that professionals judge the "natural" performer who demonstrates early evidence of ability to be more talented, more likely to succeed, and more hirable than the "striver", who shows early evidence of high motivation and perseverance, even when both have the same level of achievement."

I firmly believe that the interviews are just as important as the workouts, in order to determine if a particular player has the mindset/fire/attitude for wanting to improve.

 

[Mebert]

I think OG Anunoby is underrated. He has the potential to be one of the top 2 or 3 players to come out of this draft. Knee injury makes it a little bit dicey.

 

[CitySushi]

I think OG Anunoby is underrated. He has the potential to be one of the top 2 or 3 players to come out of this draft. Knee injury makes it a little bit dicey.

I heard he's been shooting up draft boards. I haven't seen much of him at all, but I may youtube some video of him later this afternoon. Interested to see what the hype is about.

 

[shopson67]

But getting something in return is better than
a) giving him a max contract
b) letting him walk after next season.

Of course, I just wouldn't call that maxing out his value. It will be tough for Boston to move on from him given his tumultuous offseason following his breakout season.

 

[uncfan103]

Of course, I just wouldn't call that maxing out his value. It will be tough for Boston to move on from him given his tumultuous offseason following his breakout season.

What would you do if you were Boston, especially knowing that if he needs hip surgery his career could be in jeopardy? I think this is the perfect sell high time for the Celtics with Isaiah Thomas because bringing him back after hip surgery could easily harm his value. This is still a business, and I don't think Ainge is going to put dealing Isaiah Thomas on hold because of what all IT had to deal with in his personal life.

 

[The Q]

What would you do if you were Boston, especially knowing that if he needs hip surgery his career could be in jeopardy? I think this is the perfect sell high time for the Celtics with Isaiah Thomas because bringing him back after hip surgery could easily harm his value. This is still a business, and I don't think Ainge is going to put dealing Isaiah Thomas on hold because of what all IT had to deal with in his personal life.

Trading him for a rim protector would make a lot of sense.

Or just more picks considering literally 6 guys have contracts after next season (7 if you include 1-1).

and 2 of those 7 have non-guaranteed contracts for 2017/2018 so they could easily be cut this summer.

 

[Mebert]

I heard he's been shooting up draft boards. I haven't seen much of him at all, but I may youtube some video of him later this afternoon. Interested to see what the hype is about.

He has a lot of similarities to Kawhi. Tall for a SF, crazy long arms and a great athlete. Not the best shooter, although he was better as a freshman. He has the template to be amazing.

 

[Sparhawk]

Of course, I just wouldn't call that maxing out his value. It will be tough for Boston to move on from him given his tumultuous offseason following his breakout season.

That's the key word. Season.

Achieving greatness in the regular season does not necessarily correlate with playoff success.
Yet, lots of players get paid for what they do in the regular season.

If the window for LeBron is another couple of years, then Boston may be better served trading IT for maximum value and using their precious pillaging of picks from the Nets to bolster their roster moving forward, with a few smart FA signings sprinkled in.

I don't think Boston can ultimately win it all if IT is the best player on the team.

 

[shopson67]

What would you do if you were Boston, especially knowing that if he needs hip surgery his career could be in jeopardy? I think this is the perfect sell high time for the Celtics with Isaiah Thomas because bringing him back after hip surgery could easily harm his value. This is still a business, and I don't think Ainge is going to put dealing Isaiah Thomas on hold because of what all IT had to deal with in his personal life.

I think it's the right move for sure, it just won't be popular with the fans. I'm not a huge IT4 fan, largely because he gives up defensively almost as much as he gets offensively. The hip surgery only makes moving him harder though.

 

[Great Dayne]

It didn't help Pierre Jackson.

It didn't work for many D league players either.