The over under lines

[ColinCoby]

From Keith Law:

The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.

He has the Giants finishing with 87 wins and the D-Backs with 91...for what it's worth.

 

[msgkings322]

From Keith Law:

The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.

He has the Giants finishing with 87 wins and the D-Backs with 91...for what it's worth.

I don't pay close enough attention but hasn't Law always been kind of a Giants hater?

And as far as Belt, yeah he needs to play but I figure Huff should have a really short leash so he will be playing plenty.

 

[tzill]

I don't pay close enough attention but hasn't Law always been kind of a Giants hater?

And as far as Belt, yeah he needs to play but I figure Huff should have a really short leash so he will be playing plenty.

Belt needs to fix the hole in his swing before he contemplates being a major leaguer.

 

[gp956]

Belt needs to fix the hole in his swing before he contemplates being a major leaguer.

....because no major leaguers have holes in their swing? And no rookie has ever adjusted at the major league level? That does not pass the sniff test - unless they're completely remaking his swing

Belt out hit Huff last year, and ZIPS is forecasting him to outperform Huff again by a wide margin. There is no reason Belt should not be on this team, other than service time considerations, and/or Huff's contract.

 

[mistgl]

....because no major leaguers have holes in their swing? And no rookie has ever adjusted at the major league level? That does not pass the sniff test - unless they're completely remaking his swing

Belt out hit Huff last year, and ZIPS is forecasting him to outperform Huff again by a wide margin. There is no reason Belt should not be on this team, other than service time considerations, and/or Huff's contract.

It was a BS interview meant to stem the tide of anger Giants fans were going to send the FO way when the decision to play Belt in AAA was made.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am OK with starting Belt in Fresno. I want to give Huff every chance to recover for about 6 weeks, and having Pill there makes that more conducive.

 

[tzill]

....because no major leaguers have holes in their swing? And no rookie has ever adjusted at the major league level? That does not pass the sniff test - unless they're completely remaking his swing

Belt out hit Huff last year, and ZIPS is forecasting him to outperform Huff again by a wide margin. There is no reason Belt should not be on this team, other than service time considerations, and/or Huff's contract.

But what about the notion that he needs four ABs a day to fix the hole in his swing? He won't get that in SF unless he's going to start and Huff is going into a five man rotation in the outfield.

Also, the majors isn't like the minors in one very important respect: once a hole is discovered in a players swing, it gets POUNDED. This is what happened to Belt last year IIRC (and yes, a GP heat map would be nice, thank you) and he struggled.

Also, ZiPS projections are not necessarily taking into account a swing flaw; they're based on historical performance over many careers given age, current performance, etc. Generally, I like ZiPS, but in Belt's case I think there's an exceptional case which makes the projections especially inapplicable.

If your position is that Belt should be in the starting lineup, then I have no argument with you; he may be able to close the hole at the ML level. If your position is that he should be on the club as a reserve, then I would argue that he'd be pretty unlikely to close his flaw quickly and would be better served in Fresno.

 

[gp956]

But what about the notion that he needs four ABs a day to fix the hole in his swing? He won't get that in SF unless he's going to start and Huff is going into a five man rotation in the outfield.

Also, the majors isn't like the minors in one very important respect: once a hole is discovered in a players swing, it gets POUNDED. This is what happened to Belt last year IIRC (and yes, a GP heat map would be nice, thank you) and he struggled.

Also, ZiPS projections are not necessarily taking into account a swing flaw; they're based on historical performance over many careers given age, current performance, etc. Generally, I like ZiPS, but in Belt's case I think there's an exceptional case which makes the projections especially inapplicable.

If your position is that Belt should be in the starting lineup, then I have no argument with you; he may be able to close the hole at the ML level. If your position is that he should be on the club as a reserve, then I would argue that he'd be pretty unlikely to close his flaw quickly and would be better served in Fresno.

Krukow says the hole is closed. Argument over.

But.......

Also, the majors isn't like the minors in one very important respect: once a hole is discovered in a players swing, it gets POUNDED. This is what happened to Belt last year IIRC

Now you're making the argument for why he should be starting in the majors, i.e. constant reps at his weakness.

Also, ZiPS projections are not necessarily taking into account a swing flaw; they're based on historical performance over many careers given age, current performance, etc.

This isn't a problem with ZIPS, the swing flaw is embodied in the performance. How can it not be? And don't tell me the league hadn't exploited the hole yet; we know that's not true. Where ZIPS breaks down, as most projection systems do, is it doesn't take into account LEARNING, or IOW they assume stationarity.

And, yes, my position is that Belt, hole and all, is a better option to start over Huff and Nate (take your pick). He OPS+'ed 101 last year - that's pretty damn good considering all the adversity he faced to go along with the rookie learning curve.

 

[ColinCoby]

From Jim Bowden:


Trevor Cahill, RHP
When the Diamondbacks acquired Cahill from the Oakland A’s in the offseason, most baseball people felt Cahill was the missing piece the Diamondbacks needed to get to the World Series, especially pitching behind Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. The 24-year-old Cahill is just one year removed from winning 18 games with an ERA of 2.97 for Oakland. However, his is arm slot was much lower than it used to be. When the arm drops, it means shoulder problems or just bad mechanics, and sinkers simply do not sink. When I asked D-Backs GM Kevin Towers about it, he agreed the arm was lower but assured me Cahill was healthy. Cahill lives off the ground ball, so if his sinker doesn’t sink he’s in trouble. His performance this spring did nothing to allay suspicions of injury, as he went 0-3 with a 6.39 ERA.

 

[filosofy29]

From Jim Bowden:


Trevor Cahill, RHP
When the Diamondbacks acquired Cahill from the Oakland A’s in the offseason, most baseball people felt Cahill was the missing piece the Diamondbacks needed to get to the World Series, especially pitching behind Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. The 24-year-old Cahill is just one year removed from winning 18 games with an ERA of 2.97 for Oakland. However, his is arm slot was much lower than it used to be. When the arm drops, it means shoulder problems or just bad mechanics, and sinkers simply do not sink. When I asked D-Backs GM Kevin Towers about it, he agreed the arm was lower but assured me Cahill was healthy. Cahill lives off the ground ball, so if his sinker doesn’t sink he’s in trouble. His performance this spring did nothing to allay suspicions of injury, as he went 0-3 with a 6.39 ERA.

Is it just me, or is there a ridiculously high percentage of Oakland Athletics Pitchers from their farm system that seem to be injury prone, altogether damaged goods or just no longer effective?

 

[Heathbar012]

From Jim Bowden:


Trevor Cahill, RHP
When the Diamondbacks acquired Cahill from the Oakland A’s in the offseason, most baseball people felt Cahill was the missing piece the Diamondbacks needed to get to the World Series, especially pitching behind Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. The 24-year-old Cahill is just one year removed from winning 18 games with an ERA of 2.97 for Oakland. However, his is arm slot was much lower than it used to be. When the arm drops, it means shoulder problems or just bad mechanics, and sinkers simply do not sink. When I asked D-Backs GM Kevin Towers about it, he agreed the arm was lower but assured me Cahill was healthy. Cahill lives off the ground ball, so if his sinker doesn’t sink he’s in trouble. His performance this spring did nothing to allay suspicions of injury, as he went 0-3 with a 6.39 ERA.

ColinCoby: King of Schadenfreude!

 

[gp956]

I'm banking on the douche factor among their top players (Victorino/Utley) taking a turn and creating a toxic clubhouse. With Charlie Manual not being a very strong clubhouse presence, I can see the team making a chaotic transition to mediocrity......... And they're OLD.

Phillies just got swept. They're at a tipping point, right now. Lots of chatter about Manual losing traction with the vets, and Hamels being shopped.

 

[msgkings322]

Phillies just got swept. They're at a tipping point, right now. Lots of chatter about Manual losing traction with the vets, and Hamels being shopped.

Yeah the Phillies implosion prediction looks like a good one right now. For every team on the rise (Dodgers, Nationals) another generally has to fall (Phillies, DBacks?)

 

[SFAnthem]

My dad is in Vegas right now so we put $100 on a parlay, took the over for the Giants and the White Sox. I think it pays like 8 to 1.

Not at all worried about the Giants part of the bet, injuries aside. The Sox aren't going to be any good but they have a decent shot of winning 76-78 games, in a lousy division except Detroit.

Although I don't think the Phils will be .500, that under bet on them is a good one too.

In good shape so far on all 3, including the Giants

 

[gp956]

Yeah the Phillies implosion prediction looks like a good one right now. For every team on the rise (Dodgers, Nationals) another generally has to fall (Phillies, DBacks?)

It's almost as if winning and losing in baseball is a zero sum game.

 

[msgkings322]

It's almost as if winning and losing in baseball is a zero sum game.

The hell you say!

:bump2:

 

[msgkings322]

In good shape so far on all 3, including the Giants

Yeah, the Sox had comebacks from guys like Dunn and Rios and Peavy I didn't really expect to be as strong, and AJ and Konerko are having career years, and their young leadoff guy has really stepped up. Plus Sale is one of the best young starters in the game.

Giants looking good too so far with Zito subbing for Lincecum (for how much longer?) and Melky much better than expected (ditto?).

 

[SFAnthem]

Yeah, the Sox had comebacks from guys like Dunn and Rios and Peavy I didn't really expect to be as strong, and AJ and Konerko are having career years, and their young leadoff guy has really stepped up. Plus Sale is one of the best young starters in the game.

Giants looking good too so far with Zito subbing for Lincecum (for how much longer?) and Melky much better than expected (ditto?).

The defense has more impact, imo. If it ever stabilizes, this Giants team is much better than most of the NL and you should get your 88.

 

[gp956]

A conservative estimate of the Giants remaining schedule has them at no less than 88 wins. DBacks will have to win out at .635 pace to get to 89 wins. Not impossible, but a tough task. For winning the West, they're almost out of it.

 

[gp956]

My dad is in Vegas right now so we put $100 on a parlay, took the over for the Giants and the White Sox. I think it pays like 8 to 1.

Not at all worried about the Giants part of the bet, injuries aside. The Sox aren't going to be any good but they have a decent shot of winning 76-78 games, in a lousy division except Detroit.

Although I don't think the Phils will be .500, that under bet on them is a good one too.

You're rich!