The Curious Case of RB Values in the NFL

[fastforward]

Doesn't this entire discussion make using a 1st on a RB a good bet? They already have limited years, so the extra year of the rookie contract is pure value correct? It only goes wrong if you sign them to a big extension.

It depends on how you evaluate picks and/or value. If player A plays like a $7M player for 4 years and player B plays like a $9M player for 4 years was Player B automatically the better pick? Some positions are harder to fill than others. How far will a $9M QB get you? Hypothetically if you could trade the same high pick for Garoppolo or Barkley and get either player for $6M for the next 4 years which player would you give up the high pick for...if either? Obviously neither player is now going to play for that salary and Garoppolo is clearly going to earn more than Barkley. Answers depend on positional values, needs, and judgement.

Personally I don't want a TE or RB in the 1st Round. I wouldn't be happy with a G or ILB either.

 

[Mebert]

It depends on how you evaluate picks and/or value. If player A plays like a $7M player for 4 years and player B plays like a $9M player for 4 years was Player B automatically the better pick? Some positions are harder to fill than others. How far will a $9M QB get you? Hypothetically if you could trade the same high pick for Garoppolo or Barkley and get either player for $6M for the next 4 years which player would you give up the high pick for...if either? Obviously neither player is now going to play for that salary and Garoppolo is clearly going to earn more than Barkley. Answers depend on positional values, needs, and judgement.

Personally I don't want a TE or RB in the 1st Round. I wouldn't be happy with a G or ILB either.

Part of me think if the Chiefs took Swift or Taylor over CEH at 32 the entire discussion on RB has changed.

 

[Iggloo]

Name the last big RB contract that a team didn’t wind up regretting. Cowboys paid Zeke only to watch him turn into a mediocre plodder.

 

[fightinfunbags]

dallas was for a while. They could of been. They had the line. Thats how the eagles can do what they are currently doing. Get the great line and decent backs. Dallas had great line and very good back for years....

Part of their inability to keep continuity on the line though can be seen in the large cap hit Zeke represented the past 2-3 seasons after his new deal.

 

[eaglesnut]

Denver had that plug and play RB with their line.
Seemed like each year a different RB picked up 1000 yards.

A Gary Kubiak led offense will do that.

 

[Anointed One]

Name the last big RB contract that a team didn’t wind up regretting. Cowboys paid Zeke only to watch him turn into a mediocre plodder.

L. Bell fell off the face of the earth when signing his contract with the Jets instead of taking the Steelers offer... Pitt looked like geniuses...

 

[SteelersPride]

L. Bell fell off the face of the earth when signing his contract with the Jets instead of taking the Steelers offer... Pitt looked like geniuses...

we all kept telling you guys @FaCe-LeE-uS but noooooo we were idiots.

 

[SteelersPride]

Dallas drafted a good one last year. The cowboys problem is depth on the line.

But watch the 6th round RB this year. Sproles part 2.

Im familiar with him. I want to see it first. Theres always early hype. If everyone thought he was sproles part 2, he would of gone higher.....just saying

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I really don't understand this change. So if a prime Adrian Peterson or Ladainian Tomlinson was a free agent today teams wouldn't give them a big contract? I can understand not paying a RB that approaches 30 years as the odds of them being as fast and athletic to a rookie out of college back that can run a 4.3 is slim. however for example the Vikings I don't see how they are a better team without Dalvin Cook?

that is the problem for RBs.
The RBs usually come out of college in the early 20's & if it is a 1st round RB that team owns them for fairly cheap for 6 years. That puts them approaching that 30 yr mark. Making it very hard to get a payday contract.
Best they can realistically hope for is a team extend them after the 3rd year which put them right around the 30 yr mark, but normally this wont favor the team, so why do it if your the team?

RB situation right now are pretty screwed.

As far as the Cook situation. When Min. had to use their other RBs they did well. Maybe not as good as Cook but well enough in the running game to do what they needed. So why pay extreme money when you can get good service for moderate money.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Personally I don't want a TE or RB in the 1st Round. I wouldn't be happy with a G or ILB either.

I will take talent in the 1st round all day long.
I will take a trench players in the 1st every year if they are the talent. Never feel bad about that.
Zach Martin in the 1st I have never regretted. If we were able to take Patrick Willis in the 1st. I wouldnt hesitate (although ILB for me would be much more rare)
A McCaffrey or any 3 down back (coming out of college would be rare) I would have no problem taking in the 1st.

TE. I would never take in the 1st. EVER!!!

 

[fastforward]

Name the last big RB contract that a team didn’t wind up regretting. Cowboys paid Zeke only to watch him turn into a mediocre plodder.

Define a big RB contract and define regret.

 

[PDay8810]

If everyone thought he was sproles part 2, he would of gone higher.....just saying

Really....when was Sproles drafted?

They still can't measure heart & desire or he woulda been gone by round 3 .

 

[Iggloo]

Define a big RB contract and define regret.

Todd Gurley?

 

[fastforward]

Todd Gurley?

Gurley's contract was big for an RB, but it wasn't a big contract. I don't regret it and I don't regret the decision to move on from him.

People will scoff but you have to look at the context. Fisher's 1st move was to pay $13M per year for a mediocre CB named Cortland Finnegan. We picked Quinn #14 overall and he had a stellar 3rd year after 2 years of dross. We then gave him a bigger extension than we gave Gurley and we got less from it. We picked Austin #8 overall. He teased for 4 years. I said we wouldn't pick up his 5th year option because he was a $6M player and the 5th year would be $12M. Fisher picked up that 5th year...and then gave him an extension. That 5th year he sat on the bench playing only about 10 snaps. We were lucky the Cowboys were willing to take him. However, that wasted 5th year cost us over 18 fucking million! Yes that figure is correct, $18M! Gurley earned his extension. I said at the time it was about $1.5M per year more than I was happy with, but he was best or top 2 in the NFL and he was critical to our finesse nature of our offense. Gurley cost $11.5M for the 3 years on his rookie contract. Rule of thumb - if you sign/extend a veteran you normally have to guarantee the 1st year and a half off the bat. If you dump them after 1 year it costs 2 years money. If you dump them after the 2nd year it costs you 2 and half years money. Gurley cost us 2 and half years money to dump after the 2nd year - for a total of about $29M. An overpay of about $3.75M. We wasted more than that on Foles' extension and we agreed to pay our #2 WR, (Brandin Cooks), $80M over 5 years. He was actually paid $42M over 2 years by us and he was way less valuable than Gurley. I would take the pre 2018 Gurley over any of the disgruntled 2023 RBs in a heartbeat. The only RB better in the post 2017 time period was McCaffrey.

Matter of perspective and different points of view also have plenty of merit.

 

[Moab]

I mean late 1st, not pick 12

I really love most of the Lions' fans on here. For the most part they know football and what's going on, but their bitterness is so biting that you just have to laugh.

I really don't understand this change. So if a prime Adrian Peterson or Ladainian Tomlinson was a free agent today teams wouldn't give them a big contract? I can understand not paying a RB that approaches 30 years as the odds of them being as fast and athletic to a rookie out of college back that can run a 4.3 is slim. however for example the Vikings I don't see how they are a better team without Dalvin Cook?

To be fair, how far did LDT or AD take their teams? You can add into that any other very dominant back of the 2000's and most of them played into the divisional round of the playoffs, but maybe because they were the dominant player on their team that was the ceiling? Maybe having the dominant back as 2nd fiddle is the better option and that's why most teams are just not willing to pay up for that type of back. They see that as the ceiling and that isn't the goal, so why bother?

Part of me think if the Chiefs took Swift or Taylor over CEH at 32 the entire discussion on RB has changed.

I don't know about this either. While I really do like Swift's skill set because it seems to be the best way to use backs in the current NFL, he can't or isn't the dominant player on the team, or can't be if your goal is the football atop the obelisk.

To me, or how I see it, the guys that could cash in and get the bigger contracts are the swing guys that can play out of the backfield or outside like Deebo Samuel. Probably because they're such a threat every time they touch the ball regardless of where they line up. Now I do realize that he is listed as a WR and appears to be a rare breed, but his skill set allows him to do both and and because he's not lined up in the backfield getting carry after carry he's not breaking down like a lot of the pure RBs are. (see McCaffery)

So maybe that's going to be more of a trend in the future. Guys that aren't true pounders that can catch and have very good speed with the ability to use them all over the field. Guys that consistently line up in the backfield because they don't have the hands and often not the speed to take it the distance probably aren't going to get paid for the reasons everyone pointed out. So maybe the evolution in the future is the backs coming in actually have the ability to catch and take the ball the distance. Might be rare but that's probably their only shot at getting paid, be a threat catching the ball because if you can't you're not getting the big dollars. The end of the game pounders probably won't get paid to the value they can present, but if that's the only skill they have???

 

[Mebert]

I really love most of the Lions' fans on here. For the most part they know football and what's going on, but their bitterness is so biting that you just have to laugh

For the most part this is the most upbeat we have been about the team in 30 years as well.

 

[SteelersPride]

I will take talent in the 1st round all day long.
I will take a trench players in the 1st every year if they are the talent. Never feel bad about that.
Zach Martin in the 1st I have never regretted. If we were able to take Patrick Willis in the 1st. I wouldnt hesitate (although ILB for me would be much more rare)
A McCaffrey or any 3 down back (coming out of college would be rare) I would have no problem taking in the 1st.

TE. I would never take in the 1st. EVER!!!

We all said that, then we took heath miller. We also took najee. So take that fwiw.

 

[Mebert]

I really love most of the Lions' fans on here. For the most part they know football and what's going on, but their bitterness is so biting that you just have to laugh.



To be fair, how far did LDT or AD take their teams? You can add into that any other very dominant back of the 2000's and most of them played into the divisional round of the playoffs, but maybe because they were the dominant player on their team that was the ceiling? Maybe having the dominant back as 2nd fiddle is the better option and that's why most teams are just not willing to pay up for that type of back. They see that as the ceiling and that isn't the goal, so why bother?




I don't know about this either. While I really do like Swift's skill set because it seems to be the best way to use backs in the current NFL, he can't or isn't the dominant player on the team, or can't be if your goal is the football atop the obelisk.

To me, or how I see it, the guys that could cash in and get the bigger contracts are the swing guys that can play out of the backfield or outside like Deebo Samuel. Probably because they're such a threat every time they touch the ball regardless of where they line up. Now I do realize that he is listed as a WR and appears to be a rare breed, but his skill set allows him to do both and and because he's not lined up in the backfield getting carry after carry he's not breaking down like a lot of the pure RBs are. (see McCaffery)

So maybe that's going to be more of a trend in the future. Guys that aren't true pounders that can catch and have very good speed with the ability to use them all over the field. Guys that consistently line up in the backfield because they don't have the hands and often not the speed to take it the distance probably aren't going to get paid for the reasons everyone pointed out. So maybe the evolution in the future is the backs coming in actually have the ability to catch and take the ball the distance. Might be rare but that's probably their only shot at getting paid, be a threat catching the ball because if you can't you're not getting the big dollars. The end of the game pounders probably won't get paid to the value they can present, but if that's the only skill they have???

I don't know. Look at the love McKinnon and Pacheco while on the chiefs. You replace Pacheco with Taylor or McKinnon with Swift and the offense has a new dynamic that can score on any play and I think the hype hits new levels. RB's on their own don't lead a team to success, but you add a top RB talent to a team that is close and it will often put them over the top.

I don't know that value would be all that improved, but the correct RB at 32 for them and teams would be looking for the next Taylor as it is a copy cat league. You can copy the RB, you can't copy Mahomes or Kelce.

 

[wilwhite]

This one really puts things in perspective.

I can explain it. Nobody has third and fourth kickers on their squad pulling the average down.

 

[Thruthefog]

So maybe that's going to be more of a trend in the future. Guys that aren't true pounders that can catch and have very good speed with the ability to use them all over the field. Guys that consistently line up in the backfield because they don't have the hands and often not the speed to take it the distance probably aren't going to get paid for the reasons everyone pointed out. So maybe the evolution in the future is the backs coming in actually have the ability to catch and take the ball the distance. Might be rare but that's probably their only shot at getting paid, be a threat catching the ball because if you can't you're not getting the big dollars. The end of the game pounders probably won't get paid to the value they can present, but if that's the only skill they have???

You mean like Jahmyr Gibbs?