The Combine's impact on the top 5 picks - ESPN Insider

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Jameis Winston is favorite for No. 1 overall pick coming out of combine - 2015 NFL draft - ESPN
By Todd McShay

The 2015 NFL combine is in the books. Who stood out, and what will it mean come April 30 when the first round of the draft kicks off? Here are my top seven takeaways from Indianapolis, starting with why I believe FSU's Jameis Winston has a better chance to be the No. 1 pick than Oregon's Marcus Mariota:

1. The favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Buccaneers is Winston.

I could see Tampa Bay going with either Winston or Mariota with the top pick. But when I watch the tape on these guys, there's a clear difference between the two. Winston is second only to Andrew Luck among NFL quarterback prospects of the past 10 years, in my mind, if you base things solely off of what guys have done on the field.

Now obviously, it's not that simple with Winston, as his off-field behavioral issues have been well-documented. Tampa Bay and any team that considers drafting him is going to have to be comfortable with him from a character and psychological standpoint. But from what I heard from NFL sources, Winston really impressed teams during interviews, handling himself well when answering questions about his past and displaying an outstanding football IQ.

Mariota also nailed it in his interviews. We've always known that Mariota is a person of extremely high character and that he has an intense passion for football. But teams I spoke to raved about Mariota's football IQ, which is important for a quarterback coming from a college system that doesn't translate favorably to most NFL offenses.

Ultimately, I think it will come down to the Bucs' preferences and what they put their emphasis on. I would lean toward Winston, because I think he is more advanced at this point and also has a higher ceiling; he's just a very natural passer in terms of anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately. I also think that Mariota has the potential to develop into a really good starter if he's handled properly, and I know some guys in the league who think he's going to be a star.

So Winston to the Bucs is by no means a done deal. But if you're asking me to pick one, I'd go with Winston, and most of the sources I talked to in Indianapolis this week seemed to share that opinion.

2. USC DL Leonard Williams made the Titans' decision at No. 2 a lot harder.

Tennessee also needs a quarterback, but if we operate under the scenario that Winston goes No. 1, I think the team will have a really difficult decision to make. Williams is the best overall player in this draft class, and he made it really difficult for the Titans to pass on him with the workout he turned in, showing outstanding athleticism for his size and backing up what he's shown on tape.

But no matter how good you think Williams is, the bottom line is that you need to have a quarterback to win in this league. If Winston is off the board, the Titans are going to have to choose between drafting and developing Mariota or continuing to develop second-year guy Zach Mettenberger. I absolutely think that coach Ken Whisenhunt's experience and preference of working with pro-style dropback passers could be a deterrent in picking Mariota, as that isn't Mariota's game at this point in his career.

3. If Tennessee decides against Mariota, several different landing spots come into play for him (including via a trade).

Let's say Winston goes No. 1 to the Bucs and Williams goes No. 2 to the Titans; what happens to Mariota then?

I think the Jets are a realistic possibility with the No. 6 pick, if he slides that far, but I also think there are a few teams that could consider moving up to draft him. The Rams, who own the No. 10 pick, could be interested depending on whether they trust Sam Bradford to come back healthy and be a productive starter for them. The Browns have more assets to try to trade up than most teams, as owners of the No. 12 and No. 19 picks, but I have a hard time seeing them draft a QB in the first round two years in a row.

That brings us to the Eagles. I know from talking to Chip Kelly previously how highly he thinks of Mariota, his former QB at Oregon, and especially now that he has control over personnel decisions, you have to consider a trade-up a possibility for Philadelphia. But I have no idea if he'd be willing to give up as much as it would take to jump up 15 or more spots to get ahead of the Jets at No. 6 (and remember, Washington has the No. 5 pick; I don't think it'd be too eager to help its division rival Eagles get their guy at QB) -- likely in the neighborhood of two first-rounders plus other picks and/or players. He's already gotten adequate quarterback play from Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez -- does he want to give up that much just for Mariota? The Texans at No. 16 are another team to keep an eye on if Mariota slides down the board.

Ultimately, I think the team that drafts Mariota has to have a plan in place to develop him. By that I mean incorporating some up-tempo and zone-read elements into your offense while at the same time helping him improve at winning from inside the pocket, which is what he'll ultimately need to learn in order to have long-term success. He's bulked up some, but he isn't Cam Newton in terms of his size; he'll only be able to rely upon his athleticism and running ability so much.

 

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Part 2 of 2

4. The wide receiver class is again loaded -- and the Raiders could take one with the No. 4 pick.

We've had Alabama's Amari Cooper ranked as our top wide receiver prospect, and he did nothing to hurt his stock with a really strong combine performance, including a 4.42-second 40-yard dash. When you pair that with his route-running ability and all-around game (his 33-inch vertical was a little bit of a concern), he's a really intriguing option for Oakland at No. 4 overall.

However, West Virginia's Kevin White made that decision more interesting with his 40 time of 4.35. For a guy with his size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), ball skills and run-after-catch ability, that's an outstanding number. His 2014 tape is really strong, and I think it's about 50-50 right now between Cooper and White in terms of being the first WR drafted.

But there are plenty of other really good receiver prospects in this class, most of them with great size. Devante Parker (Louisville), Jaelen Strong (Arizona State), Dorial Green-Beckham (Oklahoma) and Devin Funchess (Michigan) are all potential first-round picks who measured 6-2 or taller.

5. There are a lot of good edge rushers in this class, and a lot of teams that need them.

I thought that the higher-ranked edge rushers on our board -- Nebraska's Randy Gregory and Florida's Dante Fowler Jr. -- didn't fare as well in their workouts as Clemson's Vic Beasley and Kentucky's Bud Dupree, who solidified his first-round status and moved into first-round consideration, respectively, but none of the top guys hurt their stocks with their performances in Indy this week. (Missouri's Shane Ray didn't participate due to injury.) I don't consider Virginia's Eli Harold a likely first-round pick, but he represents some of the depth that can be found for teams that miss out on the first wave of pass-rushers.

There are several teams that could look to take an edge rusher early. The Jaguars at No. 3, the Redskins at No. 5, the Falcons at No. 8 and the Giants at No. 9 are all possible landing spots for Gregory, Fowler and Ray. The Eagles at No. 20, the Bengals at No. 21, the Steelers at No. 22 and the Colts at No. 29 are potential destinations for Beasley and Dupree.

6. This is a talented running back class, but they mostly disappointed in their workouts.

The fact two of our four top-ranked backs weren't able to work out due to injury -- Georgia's Todd Gurley and Indiana's Tevin Coleman -- had an impact on this group, but even taking their absences into account, this was a disappointing performance. Last year, 10 running backs ran the 40-yard dash faster than 4.5 seconds; this year, only three did.

Our top-ranked running back, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, had a decent workout but not a great one, putting up results that were average or above-average in every category. Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl gave a full breakdown of the RBs group here.

7. Cornerbacks should be in high demand, and two really helped themselves in Indy.

By now you've probably heard about the ridiculous performance of UConn's Byron Jones in the jumps, posting the best-ever-recorded distance of 12 feet, 3 inches in the broad jump, and an almost-as-impressive 44 1/2-inch vertical. He didn't run the 40-yard dash, but if he can post something in the 4.3 range, as it's been suggested he can, at his pro day, he'll continue to move up draft boards. We didn't have him graded as a first-round talent based on his tape, but his athletic testing results indicate he possesses the kind of natural tools teams want in their cornerbacks.

The other guy who really helped himself this week was Michigan State's Trae Waynes. I thought that Washington's Marcus Peters was a better prospect based on his tape, but his off-field issues and the fact he ran a 4.53 could bump him down a little bit, and Waynes is well-positioned to capitalize. One question we'd had about him was his top-end speed, and he definitely put that to rest with a 4.31 40-yard dash. Forty times don't matter a ton at every position, but they definitely matter for cornerbacks.

There are several teams picking between No. 11 and No. 26 overall that could use a corner, including the Vikings, Saints and Ravens, and Waynes, Jones and LSU's Jalen Collins (who also ran well with a 4.48 40) could be among those who benefit. Given the influx of talented receivers last year, and with another good class on the way, teams are starving for cornerbacks -- especially ones with size. Teams simply have to find guys with length and speed to match up with some of these guys, and they might be more inclined than in past years to take a chance on a corner early who might not have the polish and technique they're looking for, but who does have the natural tools needed to develop into a good NFL cornerback.