Smart's Bubble Watch (3/9)

[Smart]

Autobids (5):
Harvard
Eastern Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
Wichita State
Mercer

Locks (99%+) (33):
Cincinnati
Louisville
St. Louis
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke
Kansas
Texas
Iowa State
Creighton
Villanova
Michigan State
Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
San Diego State
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Kentucky
UConn
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Pitt
SMU
Memphis
VCU
UMass
Kansas State
New Mexico
George Washington (+)
Gonzaga (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (4):
Oregon (++)
Baylor (+)
Oklahoma State (++)
Arizona State

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (6):
Stanford
Colorado
Nebraska (++)
BYU
Xavier (-)
Tennessee (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (5):
Dayton (+)
Minnesota
--------------------------------------------------------------
St. Joe's (-)
Arkansas
Cal (-)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (5):
Southern Miss
St. Johns (-)
Florida State
Providence (-)
Missouri

All But Out (1%-10%) (5):
Louisiana Tech
Georgetown (-)
Utah (-)
Georgia
Green Bay

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
LSU (--)
Richmond (--)
Marquette (-)
Indiana (-)
Clemson (-)
North Dakota State (-)
UNLV (-)
Ole Miss (-)
West Virginia (-)
Stephen F. Austin (-)
NC State (-)
St. Marys (-)

 

[Smart]

All teams outside of "Locks" and "Done" are ranked in order. Therefore, the last team in is Minnesota, last team with a bye is BYU, and first one out is St. Joe's. I am still making the assumption that one conference tournament will end with a below the bubble winner, which explains why I have a different number of at-larges in than other brackets.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

I don't see how you can think Iowa is a lock and Nebraska is only a most likely in.

Check my other thread. Nebraska is basically beating them in every category now except that Iowa beat Nebraska by 10 at home 3 months ago. Iowa is 3-7 in their last 10 and Nebraska is 8-2 in their last 10. Nebraska has a better record vs top 25 and top 50 teams now. And 2 whole games better than Iowa in the Big Ten.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

I don't see how you can think Iowa is a lock and Nebraska is only a most likely in.

Check my other thread. Nebraska is basically beating them in every category now except that Iowa beat Nebraska by 10 at home 3 months ago. Iowa is 3-7 in their last 10 and Nebraska is 8-2 in their last 10. Nebraska has a better record vs top 25 and top 50 teams now. And 2 whole games better than Iowa in the Big Ten.

I remember seeing that, with Nebraskas win and Iowas downfall they switched places lol.

 

[Smart]

I don't see how you can think Iowa is a lock and Nebraska is only a most likely in.

Check my other thread. Nebraska is basically beating them in every category now except that Iowa beat Nebraska by 10 at home 3 months ago. Iowa is 3-7 in their last 10 and Nebraska is 8-2 in their last 10. Nebraska has a better record vs top 25 and top 50 teams now. And 2 whole games better than Iowa in the Big Ten.

Iowa would be in the "All But Locks," but I take my locks very seriously (I think I have only removed a lock once or twice in the five years I have done this). My hesitation with Nebraska is that, for whatever reason, 20 wins has a psychological impact and they aren't there.

Either way, they are pretty safe. The reality is that it'll be hard for them to move down when their worst case scenario is a loss to Ohio State (assuming OSU beats Purdue). Losing to a fellow Bubble Team makes it easy for the committee to see you in a bad light. I think the only thing that could endanger Nebraska would be if Purdue somehow beat OSU and they lost to Purdue.

The real action is occurring between St. Johns and BYU. Those are the ten teams that are really right in the thick of things. There is a pretty clear line between Nebraska and BYU and another pretty clear line between St. Johns and Florida State.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Iowa would be in the "All But Locks," but I take my locks very seriously (I think I have only removed a lock once or twice in the five years I have done this). My hesitation with Nebraska is that, for whatever reason, 20 wins has a psychological impact and they aren't there.

Either way, they are pretty safe. The reality is that it'll be hard for them to move down when their worst case scenario is a loss to Ohio State (assuming OSU beats Purdue). Losing to a fellow Bubble Team makes it easy for the committee to see you in a bad light. I think the only thing that could endanger Nebraska would be if Purdue somehow beat OSU and they lost to Purdue.

The real action is occurring between St. Johns and BYU. Those are the ten teams that are really right in the thick of things. There is a pretty clear line between Nebraska and BYU and another pretty clear line between St. Johns and Florida State.

I think the real psychological thing is a team that is seen as a lock for so long like Iowa being moved out. It would be a real surprise if they were left out. Unless they had a real bad loss to NW, they will be fine. I was just comparing them straight up to Nebraska. I agree that the only thing that could keep Nebraska somehow out would be a loss to Purdue. Really shouldn't be a problem.

 

[jontaejones]

I would not be shocked if St. John's runs the table and wins the BET.

Of course, they would have to beat Villanova to do so, but they are playing well and essentially have Home Court advantage. If they did that, they match up well with Creighton, and again are playing at home.

Not quite fair, but it is what it is.

 

[kramer1]

I still think you have Xavier too high.

 

[charlie42s]

Historically Okie State gets left out of March Madness. It will be interesting to see if they get selected.