Smart's Bubble Watch (3/2)

[Smart]

Locks (99%+) (32):
Cincinnati
Louisville
St. Louis
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke
Kansas
Texas
Iowa State
Creighton
Villanova
Michigan State
Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wichita State
San Diego State
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Kentucky
UConn (+)
North Carolina (+)
Oklahoma (+)
Ohio State (+)
Pitt (+)
SMU (++)
Memphis (++)
VCU (++)
UMass (++)
Kansas State (++)
New Mexico (++)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (4):
Gonzaga
George Washington (+)
Xavier (+)
Arizona State (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (6):
Cal
Stanford
Colorado (+)
St. Joe's (++)
Baylor (++)
BYU (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (7):
Oklahoma State
Providence
St. Johns
Oregon
Tennessee
Minnesota (-)
Arkansas (+)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (10):
Florida State
Missouri
Georgetown
Nebraska
Southern Miss
Utah
LSU
Dayton (+)
Harvard (-)
Richmond (-)

All But Out (1%-10%) (13):
Clemson
Louisiana Tech
Green Bay
UNLV
Georgia
North Dakota State
St. Marys
Indiana
NC State (-)
West Virginia (-)
Ole Miss (-)
Stephen F. Austin (-)
Marquette (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Purdue (-)
Middle Tennessee (-)
Toledo (-)
Indiana State (-)
Wyoming (-)
Maryland (-)

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Lunardi's got Nebraska as the 2nd team out now

 

[Smart]

Some quick notes:

- This week, it was really tough separating the "Most Likely Outs" from the "Right on the Bubbles." The gap between teams like Providence, Tennessee, and Oregon, and teams like Nebraska, Florida State, and Richmond isn't that big.

- That said, there was a lot of separation towards the top of the Bubble Watch. The pattern is likely to continue as well. The "Most Likely Ins" will almost certainly all make it. With there normally being about 23 teams that make it as autobids that wouldn't make it as at-larges, that leaves 36 teams fighting for 9 spots.

- With that little margin of error, the "All But Outs" are all in big trouble. For most of them, any loss will eliminate them. For some of the mid-majors, they could win out until the conference final game and still be out of luck.

- Next week, I will rank the teams within each category and produce a cut-off line. A current cutoff would see Oklahoma State, Minnesota, and St. Johns as the last three in, with Arkansas, Oregon, and Providence as the first three out.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Yeah I think Ohio State has atleast a 50% chance at this point. They have a winning record in the Big Ten. That is legit in my book.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

The way I see it right now from your list, the 32 teams that are locks on your list are made up of 10 conferences. If all 10 conferences were gobbled up by a "locked" team, that would leave the lock category at 22. Since there are 68 teams and 32 automatic bids, that leaves 36 atlarges. That puts 14 left to chose from. If your 4 all but locks and 6 most likely ins all make it, that leaves 4 spots available for the remaining teams. So that is the maximum number of them that could be chosen since a conferences might not get their auto from a lock.

 

[Smart]

The way I see it right now from your list, the 32 teams that are locks on your list are made up of 10 conferences. If all 10 conferences were gobbled up by a "locked" team, that would leave the lock category at 22. Since there are 68 teams and 32 automatic bids, that leaves 36 atlarges. That puts 14 left to chose from. If your 4 all but locks and 6 most likely ins all make it, that leaves 4 spots available for the remaining teams. So that is the maximum number of them that could be chosen since a conferences might not get their auto from a lock.

Well, close. The winner of the WCC could be an autobid as well, since no WCC teams are listed as Locks, but BYU and Gonzaga are both above the bubble. So, yes, if we assume all the teams above the bubble will make it, and we assume that those 11 conferences will be won by a team above the bubble, there would be five available spots at the bubble and below.

And history shows us that normally eight or nine of those eleven conference tourneys will be won by teams above the bubble. So yes, there will only likely be two or three spots available for all the teams on the bubble and below. It's why none of those teams should be very confident.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Anyways, all logic aside..........

Huskerz fer Champz

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Some quick notes:

- This week, it was really tough separating the "Most Likely Outs" from the "Right on the Bubbles." The gap between teams like Providence, Tennessee, and Oregon, and teams like Nebraska, Florida State, and Richmond isn't that big.

- That said, there was a lot of separation towards the top of the Bubble Watch. The pattern is likely to continue as well. The "Most Likely Ins" will almost certainly all make it. With there normally being about 23 teams that make it as autobids that wouldn't make it as at-larges, that leaves 36 teams fighting for 9 spots.

- With that little margin of error, the "All But Outs" are all in big trouble. For most of them, any loss will eliminate them. For some of the mid-majors, they could win out until the conference final game and still be out of luck.

- Next week, I will rank the teams within each category and produce a cut-off line. A current cutoff would see Oklahoma State, Minnesota, and St. Johns as the last three in, with Arkansas, Oregon, and Providence as the first three out.

Have you heard any stats on Big Ten teams with winning conference records not making it to the dance? I could be wrong, but I always assumed it was a pretty safe bet.

 

[gpm1976]

Yeah I think Ohio State has atleast a 50% chance at this point. They have a winning record in the Big Ten. That is legit in my book.

They're listed as a lock.. not sure how though.

 

[Brasky]

Anyways, all logic aside..........

Huskerz fer Champz

Like I said, when we beat Wisconsin to finish the season we're a lock.

 

[Jim Rome is Flaming]

Like I said, when we beat Wisconsin to finish the season we're a lock.

 

[SteelersPride]

pitts a lock yees

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

They're listed as a lock.. not sure how though.

I don't know how I typed Ohio State. I meant Nebraska.

 

[Red_Alert]

Nebraska's gonna have a tough time at Indiana. I think they're on a down cycle.
They haven't shot well from anywhere their last two games @ Illinois or home against Northwestern. They beat Northwestern but it wasn't pretty.
Petteway's been cold as ice and nobody's stepped up to fill the void.

 

[Smart]

Have you heard any stats on Big Ten teams with winning conference records not making it to the dance? I could be wrong, but I always assumed it was a pretty safe bet.

It's been a lock the last few years, but there have been some really soft bubbles. Between 2007 and 2010, there was a four year stretch where an above-.500 B1G team missed the dance every year (2010 Illinois, 2009 Penn State, 2008 Ohio State, and 2007 Iowa). This year is shaping up to be a much better bubble than the last few years, but there are 68 teams instead of 65. So I guess we'll see.

Like I said, when we beat Wisconsin to finish the season we're a lock.

Good luck with that. To really be a lock, Nebraska will probably need 4 wins (or 3 + BTT bye). With three wins, you should feel pretty safe (likely "All But Lock"). With 2, you are likely on the outside looking in.

 

[dcZONAfan]

is Pitt really a lock? This loss certainly hurts, they have 8 losses (7 in the ACC I think) and their nonconference SOS is 295. Also 1 win against top 50 RPI

5-8 against top 100 after this loss. Essentially, their best win came on Nov 26th. I guess them being a lock has more to do with the lack of a strong bubble than anything else, but they certainly don't seem to be playing very well right now

 

[douggie]

Aren't you forgetting the automatic bids smart?

 

[Smart]

is Pitt really a lock? This loss certainly hurts, they have 8 losses (7 in the ACC I think) and their nonconference SOS is 295. Also 1 win against top 50 RPI

5-8 against top 100 after this loss. Essentially, their best win came on Nov 26th. I guess them being a lock has more to do with the lack of a strong bubble than anything else, but they certainly don't seem to be playing very well right now

I went back and forth on whether to make them a lock, but I eventually decided to go with it. As I thought about it, even if they lose to Clemson, they are still above average (10-8) in the ACC. Their only non-conference loss was a one-pointer to a top 25 team, and they beat a likely tournament team (Stanford). It's true that they don't have any great wins, but they don't have any bad losses. Above .500 teams in top conferences normally only get excluded if they have a couple bad losses, and Pitt's worst loss is to a team that will likely host an NIT game.

Aren't you forgetting the automatic bids smart?

They aren't on the Bubble Watch until they are clinched. I make my classifications with the understanding that there will be 22-24 autobids not ranked highly on the Bubble Watch. As they clinch, they'll be added into the three remaining Bubble Watches. Of course, any team who hasn't been eliminated from their conference tourney can make the big dance. This is only concerned with At-Large bids.

 

[douggie]

Uh, no. There are 32 Automatic Bids in D-1 basketball. 31 Conference Tournaments and the Regular Season Ivy League.

 

[rmilia1]

Uh, no. There are 32 Automatic Bids in D-1 basketball. 31 Conference Tournaments and the Regular Season Ivy League.

He said 22-24 not ranked on Bubble watch. Meaning 22-24 teams from 1 bid leagues. There are roughly 8-10 teams that are currently in first place in their leagues that are LOCKS regardless of winning their conference tourney ie: UVA, Arizona, Michigan, Kansas, St Louis, Florida, SDSU/UNM, AAC winner, BE winner. Those teams are IN whther they win their league tourney or not.